Cincinnati Bengals mock schedule: A favorable draw could be more beneficial than usual

Most years, my mock schedule is largely done to poke fun at mock-draft culture, find fun concerts and games to pair with potential road trips and point out the long, questionable run of Cincinnati being forced into Thursday night divisional prime-time road trips.

All of that exists this year, but because of the unique nature of the Bengals’ roster and upheaval across the AFC North, the order of the games could actually have a real impact on the Bengals’ chances.

Welcome to Mock Schedule 2026: More than just jokes!

There’s a long line of first-year coaches, or old coaches in new situations, struggling over the first month-plus of the season as they learn on the fly. While that can be the case for every team, none more than for a new coach.

For the first time in forever, the AFC North will be dominated by that storyline. Changes with the Steelers, Browns and Ravens, along with games against the Falcons, Titans and Dolphins, put more than half the club’s games against teams with new coaches.

Just filtering for first-time NFL head coaches over the last five years, they have a .389 winning percentage in their first six games of the season. Compare that to .518 for the rest of the NFL.

Some examples buck the trend, of course, notably last year when the Bears (Ben Johnson) and Jaguars (Liam Coen) started 4-2 and both finished with division titles.

There’s also a drop late in the season, which likely is impacted by first-time head coaches struggling with the length of the season, but those records are also impacted by interim head coaches for teams that fired their original leader.

Still, landing those games early when the Bengals’ primary feature this season will be continuity of an offense returning all 11 starters and coaching staff that’s largely been together for years, only emphasizes the discrepancy.

When looking at what would be a best-case scenario for the Bengals when the full schedule is released Thursday, keep an eye on how many of those division games land in the first six weeks.

That would add to the advantage pointed out by Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis, who charted the easiest schedules in the NFL next year based on sportbooks’ projected win totals. It showed Cincinnati with the third-easiest, in a clear tier above the middle of the pack.

Last year, each of the top three easiest projected schedules went over their projected win total for the year, and five of the six hardest projected schedules went under their projected win total for the year.

BetMGM holds Cincinnati at a 9.5 win total over-under.

As for the mock schedule, let’s take a look at the best potential scenario for Cincinnati based on competitive advantage, road-trip add-ons and recent trends.

Remember, this is not a prediction to get the games right, but to create the best schedule possible for the Bengals and their fans.

Week 1 (9/13): vs. Steelers

The Bengals plan to try once more to make “Open In Orange” feel less like “A Clockwork Orange.” The debut of “Open in Orange” was in 2024 when they were stunned by Jerod Mayo and the Patriots in Week 1, a loss that played a large part in narrowly missing the playoffs. Last year, it came in Week 2, and Joe Burrow went down with his toe injury. Still, the early AFC North theme begins.

Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals could look to get a fast start in the division with a Week 1 matchup versus the Steelers. (Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)

Week 2 (9/20): at Ravens

Could this game end up at 1 p.m. ET on a Sunday for the first time since 2021? Four consecutive Cincinnati games at Baltimore have been placed in prime time, where the Ravens have been nearly unbeatable. Of course, the Bengals broke the streak on Thanksgiving last year, so maybe all those trends slowly disappear.

Week 3 (9/27): vs. Browns

Three weeks and three AFC North opponents seems implausible, but the entire point of this exercise is to lay out the dream scenario.

Week 4 (10/4): at Commanders, Tottenham Stadium, London

Let’s do it again! The 10th anniversary of one of the great moments in international sporting history, when Washington and Cincinnati played to a 27-27 tie. While nobody who traveled from America overseas knew quite how to feel about a tie, the soccer community filling Wembley Stadium comfortably applauded and retreated to the pub with a smile.

Week 5 (10/11): Bye

A little early for the bye, but the weekend after an international game is probably going to decide it this year.

Week 6 (10/18): at Steelers

The first of two Dan Hoard Specials on the dream scenario. The University of Cincinnati and Bengals play-by-play legend, Hoard, would appreciate this. UC plays in Morgantown, W.Va., on Saturday. A great chance to pull off a double dip for fans and for Hoard to be handed an easy button calling both games on the weekend.

Week 7 (10/25): at Dolphins

Cincinnati went to Miami in December last year, which was an ideal time for cold Bengals fans to make the trip. This offers a treat of its own: The South Beach Seafood Festival. It features elite food, VIP chef competitions and four blocks filled with thousands of seafood fanatics on Saturday afternoon. Bon appetit!

Week 8 (11/1): vs. Ravens SNF

Bengals fans have been waiting years to get this game in prime time at home. It finally happens. The last regular-season Bengals-Ravens prime-time game in Cincinnati was in Week 2 of 2018. They met in prime time in the playoffs in January of 2023, a game remembered as “The Fumble in the Jungle.”

Week 9 (11/8): at Texans

The second Dan Hoard Special, this one a same-city double dip with the UC Bearcats playing at the Houston Cougars on Saturday.

Week 10 (11/15): vs. Jaguars

The Bengals need to host Jacksonville at some point. Might as well be here.

Week 11 (11/22): at Panthers

Charlotte is a highly underrated, fun road trip. This one connects with one of the biggest concert tours of the year. Rush is playing at The Spectrum Center on Friday and Sunday night. Fly by night and make it a big weekend.

Week 12 (11/27): vs. Chiefs, Black Friday

Bengals ownership pushed for the club to annually host the Black Friday game when it first came on the scene in 2023. Their wish wasn’t granted, but why not put one of the top games on their schedule in this time slot? Great break of the monotony for a big tilt.

The Chiefs last played at Paycor Stadium in December 2022. Joe Burrow and the Bengals won that day, 27-24.(Dylan Buell / Getty Images)

Week 13 (12/7): at Falcons, MNF

Bengals continue a national TV run, adding a Monday night game in Atlanta. The game ends up on Monday because the SEC title game is Saturday night. Double-dip road trips, they just mean more.

Week 14 (12/13): vs. Titans

Cam Ward could take a leap in Year 2, or this could be the latest ugly end to what has been an ugly stretch of football in Tennessee.

Week 15 (12/17): vs. Buccaneers, TNF

The only games expected to be in cold weather for the Bucs this year are at Cincinnati and Chicago. Tampa Bay has not played in a game with the temperature below 32 degrees since Christmas Eve of 2000. They’ve played nine games in temperatures of 40 degrees or less this century, going 2-7. Cincinnati would love to bring the Bucs to December for a night game on a short week.

Week 16 (12/27): at Colts

Keeping travel to a minimum this time of year is always ideal. This represents one of the shortest trips between two cities in the entire NFL.

Week 17 (1/3): vs. Saints

Same scenario as the Bucs. New Orleans has only played in four games below freezing this century (1-3). Bringing the Saints up to Cincinnati in the middle of winter would offer a definite advantage.

Week 18 (1/10): at Browns

Cleveland will likely be chanting for Arch Manning by this point. All eyes have appeared focused on the 2027 QB draft, and that will likely be on the mind as this season wraps up.