Recent history suggests a star will win the PGA Championship.

Gone are the days of a Shaun Micheel, Y.E. Yang or Jason Dufner winning this major. Since it moved to May in 2019, only stars have won the PGA. Six of the last seven winners had odds of 35-to-1 or lower. Four of them were 16-to-1 or shorter. And the only “long shot” was 200-to-1 Phil Mickelson, who was, you know, one of the greatest golfers of all time.

When it comes to this year’s course, Aronimink Golf Club currently seems set up for a certain type of golfer. As Rory McIlroy put it Tuesday: “Strategy off the tee is pretty nonexistent. It’s basically bash driver down there and then figure it out from there.”

There’s not much trouble off the tee, meaning the longest players can send it without concern and leave themselves a wedge into these tricky, difficult greens. While most major tests are really about being dialed with those 150-200-yard shots, Aronimink is kind of the opposite. Players will have more long 200-plus-yard approaches than your average tour stop and far more shots inside 150.

But because long shots rarely win this event, there is some value to be had in a handful of golfers this week. Here are some players to consider adding to your betting card.

Which favorite?

Jon Rahm (14-to-1)

Realistically, one of the big three — Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy or Jon Rahm — should win. Of course they should. If anything, McIlroy lines up as the actual biggest beneficiary of the course setup, as his astronomical length should put him in great spots and he’s a great putter on these types of greens.

But Scheffler (+385) and McIlroy (+910) are just priced too high. It can be true that they’re both the frontrunners and bad value bets.

Rahm, on the other hand, should get your attention. He’s long. He’s balanced. He has a great short game, and DataGolf actually considers him the No. 2 player in the world ahead of McIlroy. It’s fair to be concerned about how well LIV Golf courses prepare him for major tests, but that concern is also the only reason he’s priced like this.

But the main reason I love Rahm? He’s arguably the best 200-plus-yard approach player in the world. Aronimink has three different par threes over 215 yards long.

The sneaky mid-tier plays

Chris Gotterup (66-to-1)

So you’re telling me one of the longest players on tour, who’s won twice on the PGA Tour in the last four months and grew up 90 miles away, has just the 22nd-best odds in the field? Explain that to me.

Gotterup is a little boom-or-bust, but he’s a certified dude. His main issue at times is driver accuracy, which certainly will hurt him more at Riviera and TPC Sawgrass, but that is greatly neutralized at Aronimink, where he can send it and attack. According to DataGolf, Gotterup has the second-best course fit adjustment in the field. At 26, he’s still new to the major scene, but his breakout wins at Sony and Phoenix, combined with a recent major run of T23, 3 and T24, relieve some of my concern.

Gotterup should be a top-10 contender.

Sam Burns (69-to-1)

Hear me out. I know you don’t want to pick Sam Burns. Nobody wants to bet Sam Burns. But that’s also why you can get such incredible value on Sam Burns.

The main knock against him has always been major championship struggles, but he’s racked up three top 10s in the last two years, and I maintain that Burns wins the 2025 U.S. Open if storms don’t destroy Oakmont last year.

Burns is a different pick than the others, though. He hits long, but not that long. Burns’ value is that he’s arguably the best putter in the world, and putting might be the difference at Aronimink. The course’s only chance at truly defending against low scores is these greens making life difficult, and that only exacerbates Burns’ advantage.

The big question with Burns, though, is whether he can make the big putt when it matters.

Min Woo Lee (62-to-1)

Considering how much he took on a bit of a wasted potential narrative a few years ago, it’s gone slightly under the radar that the 27-year-old Aussie has put together his most consistent season by far. He’s still an absolute bomber, putts well and is solid around the greens. But he’s gone from a career negative ball striker to gaining 0.23 strokes in approach this season, leading to eight top-20 finishes in 13 starts with four T6 or better finishes.

The long shot

David Puig (120-to-1)

A 24-year-old Spanish bomber with a great putting stroke? Well, that’s essentially the main theme of our picks here.

Puig is a great talent from LIV who also won the Australian PGA Championship this winter for his first big-boy European win. Yes, we always need to take LIV results with a few grains of salt, but he just finished second at LIV Mexico City behind fellow Spaniard Jon Rahm. But really, this is about an absurdly long hitter whose accuracy issues are reduced at Aronimink. Puig is essentially Gotterup-lite with double the odds.

Puig will be someone golf fans know soon. Might as well buy before the prices drop.