The Athletic has live coverage of the 2026 NFL schedule release.

The Kansas City Chiefs will be out to improve last season’s 6-11 record was a blip — not a pattern — when they open their 2026 schedule with a Sept. 14 home game against the Denver Broncos on “Monday Night Football.”

Still, the slate promises to be anything but easy, with K.C. facing a midseason grind as it looks to climb back to the top of the AFC.

So what stands out most about the Chiefs’ road ahead?

Let’s take a deeper dive into this year’s schedule.

Consider our schedule released. pic.twitter.com/00fIBIL62g

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) May 14, 2026

Week 1 keys to victory

The biggest thing will be quarterback Patrick Mahomes healing as expected. Mahomes, who is recovering from season-ending knee surgery, said in January his goal was to return for Week 1, and he’s hit every rehab benchmark since then to make that kind of a comeback seem probable. Though Mahomes’ mobility might be limited early, his presence should keep the Chiefs as home favorites against the hated Broncos in the opening-week rivalry match. As of this week, DraftKings listed the Chiefs as 2.5-point favorites in the “Monday Night Football” game, with roughly 59 percent odds of winning that game.

Must-watch game: Chiefs at Bills, Week 12

Outside of Rams-Seahawks, will the NFL feature a better regular-season matchup than this one? Mahomes going against Bills quarterback Josh Allen always makes for must-watch TV, and this one will have added spectacle as a Thanksgiving night game played in the Bills’ brand-new Highmark Stadium. Bills fans love to beat the Chiefs — the team that’s caused them so much postseason heartache — and that’s the driving force that makes this the toughest road environment K.C. faces each season. The game surely will have some late-season playoff implications as well, giving it top billing on a Chiefs schedule that features quite a few other doozies.

Toughest stretch: Weeks 12-14

The Chiefs will need to bank some wins early because it will take a mini-miracle to escape their Week 12-14 gauntlet with a 3-0 record. During that stretch, K.C. has three consecutive road games against the Bills, Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. If there’s a tougher three-game slate for any NFL team out there, I’d sure like to see it. Also worth noting: The Chiefs back up that slate of games with home games against the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers. Yes, Arrowhead Stadium will be a friendlier environment then, but those two opponents aren’t exactly slouches either.

One game the Chiefs can’t afford to lose: vs. Chargers, Week 6

The AFC West projects to be competitive among the top three contenders, so the Chiefs likely can’t afford to get swept by either the Broncos or Chargers and still hope to win the division. That makes this early matchup, coming off the bye, against the Chargers at Arrowhead so vital. K.C. should be a slight favorite in this one, but if it can’t come away with the win, it would likely enter a difficult second half of the schedule while needing to make up some ground.

Best offense the Chiefs will face: Rams, Week 13

It’s tempting to go with the Allen-led Bills here; K.C. has come up with few answers to stop him over the years, and Allen remains the sportsbook favorite to win MVP again this season. But the Rams were widely considered the NFL’s top offense in 2025, and they shouldn’t project for much of a step back in 2026 with all of their main pieces (coach Sean McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford and receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams) returning for an encore in 2026.

Best defense the Chiefs will face: Seahawks, Week 7

Based on the all-encompassing DVOA metrics, Seattle finished last season ranked first in overall, pass and run defense. That’s a nearly impossible feat to pull off, and even if we bake in some regression, the Seahawks are the easy pick here for the Chiefs’ toughest defensive opponent — especially with the game being played at the raucous Lumen Field in Seattle.

Predicted record: 11-6

Sportsbooks aren’t buying a Chiefs collapse, and neither am I. Even after last year’s 6-11 mark, the over-under total for K.C. wins sits at 10.5, and I think the Chiefs can get over that in 2026 with better health and by not being one of the most unclutch teams of all time like they were a season ago. They’ll need some good health luck, too, but getting back to 11-6 should put the Chiefs in the thick of an up-for-grabs AFC race.

Predicted AFC West finish: First

1. Chiefs

2. Chargers

3. Broncos

4. Raiders

This one could easily come down to tiebreakers, with the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos all challenging for 11-12 wins at the top. In the end, I’ll agree with Vegas oddsmakers who list the Chiefs as slight favorites, which would give them their 10th division title in the last 11 seasons.