Brighton could still qualify for any European competition – what are the pros, cons and chances of each?

As things stand, Brighton & Hove Albion could end up in the Champions League — or miss out on Europe altogether.

After 37 matches it all boils down to the final game of the season, at home against Manchester United on Sunday, for Fabian Hurzeler’s seventh-placed side.

A chance to secure a spot in Europe for the second time in the club’s history was spurned on Sunday with a 1-0 defeat at Leeds United. Now they find themselves with four very different possible outcomes with one game to play.

The Athletic explains the multiple permutations for the final day and what it all means for the finances and the fans.

Champions League

The remote chance of a dream ticket to UEFA’s most prestigious competition will have been extinguished before Sunday if Bournemouth beat title-chasing Manchester City at home on Tuesday night.

Pep Guardiola’s FA Cup winners may be favourites to win against the sixth-placed side, but that doesn’t mean it will happen. Bournemouth are unbeaten under outgoing manager Andoni Iraola since selling their star player, Antoine Semenyo, to City in January for more than £60million  — a feat that eclipses even Brighton’s multiple big-profit sales in the transfer market.

If City do the business further along the south coast, it still requires several results to go Brighton’s way for them to snatch a Champions League spot. Firstly, Aston Villa have to win the Europa League final against Freiburg in Istanbul on Wednesday evening and then drop from fourth to fifth in the table on the final day.

Brighton would need a favour from Villa to make the Champions League (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

That would create an extra Champions League place for finishing sixth under UEFA’s European performance spot (EPS) system. Qualification for the Premier League’s top five has already been secured for the second season in succession by the performances of English clubs in Europe.

Both scenarios involving Villa are plausible. They are already in the Champions League, so finishing fourth or fifth matters little to them in the wake of potential Europa League celebrations. Plus they are away at Manchester City on the final day. If they lose, then Liverpool can overhaul Villa on goal difference by beating Brentford at Anfield (more of which later). With me so far?

Even if all of this falls into place, Brighton would still have to beat Manchester United, while Bournemouth need only two points at home to Manchester City and at Nottingham Forest on Sunday to clinch that sixth spot.

The damage done to Brighton’s Champions League hopes at Leeds was lost in the fallout from conceding the only goal in the 96th minute, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin nipped past the onrushing Bart Verbruggen from Jan Paul van Hecke’s underhit back pass.

They should have won the game — they had 13 shots in the second half, 19 in total, and an xG of 2.76. Victory would have kept alive a chance of overtaking Liverpool, taking them to within three points of Arne Slot’s faltering champions.

Playing in the league phase of Europe’s premier club competition rakes in more than £40m, which just happens to be the club record fee splashed out by Brighton on Georginio Rutter from Leeds two summers ago. Then there is the prestige of rubbing shoulders with the continent’s elite and increasing the possibility of keeping hold of members of the squad potentially destined for big summer moves — Van Hecke, Verbruggen and Carlos Baleba, who remains a Manchester United target.

They may never come as close again but, let’s face it, there is no chance that Brighton would win the Champions League and there would be no opportunity for Hurzeler to rotate the squad. That leads us neatly into more realistic scenarios…

Europa League

Staying where they are in seventh — or finishing sixth with Villa fourth — will secure a place in the Europa League for the second time in four seasons.

There are various ways to retain seventh place, first and foremost by beating United. A draw will be enough if Brentford (eighth) do not win at Liverpool and Chelsea (10th) do not win their final two games at home to Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham on Tuesday and at Sunderland on Sunday.

This is also where Brighton’s goal difference of +9 favours them. Hurzeler often says that defence wins championships, or in this instance, possibly a European place. Only leaders Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded fewer goals than Brighton’s 43. A draw against United would surely see them finish ahead of Sunderland, who are currently in ninth (they are two points behind with a goal difference of -7).

Brighton and their supporters have already tasted the rewards of the UEFA’s second-ranking club competition in 2023-24 after finishing sixth to qualify under former head coach De Zerbi.

Brighton played in the Europa League under Roberto De Zerbi ( Ivan Romano/Getty Images)

Topping a group containing fallen European giants Ajax, Marseille and AEK Athens produced once-in-a-lifetime memories for fans, especially beating Ajax home and away, coming from 2-0 down to draw in Marseille and then clinching top spot by beating the French side 1-0 at the Amex.

There is the sense of unfinished business in the Europa League, having failed to do themselves justice in the last 16 with a reckless 4-0 defeat in the first leg away at Roma, which rendered a 1-0 win in the return leg immaterial.

It is plausible to go deep in the competition — Forest lost to Villa in the semi-finals, Tottenham won it last year when finishing 17th in the league, and further back Fulham were runners-up in 2009-10.

The commercial benefits are sizeable as well. Just over £18m was pocketed from UEFA for exiting in the round of 16 two years ago. There was a wider tonic, a 26 per cent rise in revenues with each of the four home games raking in nearly £1.5m apiece. That campaign generated a club record £261m overall.

Europa Conference League

A drop to eighth will still secure a place in UEFA’s third-tier competition. Brighton could afford to lose to United, providing that Brentford do not win at Liverpool and Sunderland do not beat Chelsea, or Chelsea lose against Tottenham but win or draw at Sunderland. Still with me?

It gets even more complicated if Brentford win and if Chelsea take four points from their remaining two matches. Then it would come down to goal difference with Brighton and Chelsea level on 53 points (Chelsea’s goal difference is currently +6).

If every card falls in their favour, Hurzeler’s side could still be in the Europa League with a defeat by United, but there is a case to be made that the Conference League would provide more first-time fun, together with the best chance of winning a major trophy for the first time.

After all, rivals Palace have reached the final against Rayo Vallecano in Leipzig on May 27, with West Ham having won the competition in 2023. The financial boost is not to be sniffed at either — winning it last season generated £19m for Chelsea.

No Europe? That seems unthinkable, unbearable, bearing in mind the position of strength before the defeat at Leeds. The crumb of comfort? Brighton cannot finish lower than ninth, which would still equal the third-highest finish in the club’s history.