For the third consecutive year, The Athletic is looking at the top tier of NHL players, examining which of them could someday be enshrined in the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto. It’s a fun, illuminating project — one that provides both material for debate and, we hope, information on what it takes for players to get in.

Along with doing our own research, we talked to coworkers and other hockey experts to make this list as complete as possible. The result is six tiers, titled as follows:

• They could retire today and make it
• Probably in — and still rising
• Keep compiling
• Outside shots
• On track
• Check back in a few years

Before we dive in, here are some parameters, which will look familiar if you read the 2024 and 2025 tiers:

• The project is limited to players who have logged at least five seasons. Macklin Celebrini and Matthew Schaefer could be in a similar article in a few years, but it’s simply too early to evaluate their careers through this lens.
• This focuses solely on players who are under contract for next season, so now-retired players are not included. Jonathan Toews, Anže Kopitar and Jonathan Quick all fall into that camp. We also removed Alex Pietrangelo from the tiers. He’s technically entering the last year of his deal but hasn’t played since 2024-25, and Vegas Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon told reporters in July that the defenseman’s “playing situation isn’t going to change.”
• The Hockey Hall of Fame’s selection committee consists of 18 members. A candidate needs 14 affirmative votes to get in: over 75 percent. Our tiers aren’t where we personally view players’ Hall of Fame cases; they’re instead based on how we expect the committee would.
• Players within each tier are sorted alphabetically.
• There are two new tiers for the 2026 edition: “Probably in — and still rising,” and “Keep compiling.”

Here are the final results, which surely everyone in the comment section will meet without any disagreement:

Besides a couple graduations, most of this group remains the same from last year. And that makes sense; it’s hard to become a lock, but once you are, there’s no turning back.

The one newcomer is Winnipeg Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck, and while the timing of that might seem funny on an individual level after a down year, his 2026 Olympic gold medal with the United States fills the one real hole in his resume: team success. Certainly, a Stanley Cup title in the future would be a great addition too, but even now, who’s turning away a three-time Vezina Trophy winner with a Hart Trophy and Olympic gold?

Only one goalie with three Vezina wins is outside the Hall, and that’s Michel Larocque, who shared his trophies with Montreal Canadiens legend Ken Dryden back when the award was given to all qualifying netminders on the team that allowed the fewest goals (minimum 25 games).

Add in the league MVP and an Olympic gold for which he was the driving force, making 41 saves in the U.S.-Canada final, and Hellebuyck has reached “lock” status.

A good case could be made that any of these three players belong in the top tier. Each already has the requisite on-ice peak, individual hardware and at least one Stanley Cup championship or Olympic gold medal. They are also young enough to keep adding to their resume. As it is, they slot into this newly created level.

Aleksander Barkov’s case was fodder for one of our longest discussions. Had the Florida Panthers captain not missed this season after ACL and MCL surgery, he likely would have moved up. As it is, both of us would vote for him to be in already. But this exercise is less about what we think and more about whether we have total certainty the Hall of Fame committee would induct someone who’s played only 804 games and doesn’t yet have the counting stats of other recent forward inductees.

To review how special a player Barkov is: He’s one of only four players to claim at least two Stanley Cup titles and three Selke Trophy wins. The other three — Bob Gainey, Guy Carbonneau and Pavel Datsyuk — are already enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Along with his elite defense, Barkov has averaged at least a point per game over each of his past five seasons. Internationally, he earned an Olympic bronze in 2014 and, having recovered from his knee surgeries, captained Finland to World Championship gold this summer.

Auston Matthews hasn’t enjoyed the same NHL team success as Barkov, but the Toronto Maple Leafs center captained the U.S. to Olympic gold in Milan this year. That will matter to the committee. With a Hart Trophy and more goals (428) than anyone since he entered the league, Matthews is in a good position — one that should only get better as his career continues.

Last year, we compared Matthews’ case to that of Leon Draisaitl, who is in the lock tier. Matthews is inching closer, but we still have him with Barkov and Makar for now. No shame in that.

With Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar, it’s fair to wonder whether someone who has played only 470 regular-season games belongs in this tier. We felt that in Makar’s case, the answer is yes. Only 27 years old, he already has one of the best peaks ever by a defenseman. Since entering the league, he leads all defensemen in goals (136) and points (507) and has won the Stanley Cup, a Conn Smythe Trophy, the Norris Trophy twice and the 2020 Calder Trophy.

Makar also finished as a Norris finalist in six of his first seven NHL seasons. The only other player to do that? Bobby Orr.

These seven veterans — all at least 34 years old — are in the back halves of their careers and already have good cases to make the Hall of Fame. Some are already probable inductees, and others could use a few more quality seasons to get over the hump. Together they form this year’s second new tier.

Avalanche defenseman Brent Burns, entering his 23rd NHL season, has a Norris Trophy and stands 57 games away from tying Phil Kessel’s ironman streak. Health willing, he should get there in 2026-27. He’s also set to break into the top 10 in all-time scoring by a defenseman. All of that makes it hard to see him not getting in, even if he’s only finished in the top seven in Norris voting three times, all during a four-year peak.

Kris Letang doesn’t have the games played or the individual trophy that Burns does, but the Pittsburgh Penguins defenseman has more team success with three Stanley Cup titles, though he was hurt for the 2017 playoffs. In general, the difficulty defensemen have traditionally faced getting in prevents him from being more of a sure thing.

The Nashville Predators’ Roman Josi, the other defenseman in this tier, could have a case for the “Probably in — and still rising” tier. He’s 36, more than a half-decade older than the three players in that tier, but his current level of production is higher than those of Burns and Letang, suggesting he’s still adding to his case. Josi’s resume includes a Norris Trophy win and five top-five finishes, including two as runner-up. Team-wise, he helped the Predators to their lone Stanley Cup Final appearance (2017), and he has four World Championship silver medals with Switzerland. Last year we said he was on the cusp, and that remains true. More years like this past season — 55 points in 68 games — will remove any uncertainty.

Now to the forwards. We wrote extensively last year about how Brad Marchand improved his case by helping propel the Panthers to their second Stanley Cup win, placing him in the now-defunct “Almost there — if not already a lock” grouping. (Burns was there, too.) Marchand had 27 goals and 54 points in 52 games during the 2025-26 season, crossed the 1,000 career point threshold and added an Olympic silver to his resume. With five years left on his contract, the 38-year-old is in a perfect position to continue compiling, especially with the Panthers in win-now mode.

Last year, we grouped John Tavares and Corey Perry in a two-man tier called “Crossing the blue line.” Tavares proceeded to have another 30-plus goal season in 2025-26 for the Maple Leafs, putting him 75 away from 600 career goals, a feat only 22 players ever have achieved. Is his peak at the level of inner-circle Hall of Famers? No, though he does have a pair of top-three Hart finishes and an Olympic gold. That, combined with where his counting stats are bound to finish, seems likely to get him in, but he’d do well to keep adding to his numbers.

Perry is a fascinating case. He has a Hart Trophy, a Stanley Cup championship, a Maurice “Rocket Richard Trophy and two Olympic gold medals, and is part of the Triple Gold club. The Los Angeles Kings forward also ranks outside the top 100 players in all-time points, outside the top 60 in all-time goals and only once finished in the top 10 in Hart voting, when he won in 2010-11. He’ll be hard to leave out — especially if he can score 28 points to crack 1,000 this year — but the committee might make him wait longer than you’d expect for someone with his amount of hardware.

Kings teammate Artemi Panarin, now 34, moves up from his “On track” grouping last summer after another point-per-game year. He’ll at the very least have a borderline case when his career is done. He should fly past 1,000 career points this season, as he’s just 46 away from the milestone, and if he plays beyond his current contract, which expires in 2028, he could finish among the all-time top 50 in points. His lack of playoff success might hurt with the committee — his 64 points in 77 career postseason games is well below his career-average scoring rate — but with a few more strong seasons he’ll have accumulated enough points not to cost him induction.

We discussed the first four names last year, so let’s focus on the three new additions here.

Brayden Point has been a key member of two Stanley Cup-winning teams with the Tampa Bay Lightning, and while he lacks individual hardware, his stats at age 30 give him a real shot. A down year in 2025-26 did give us some pause, though, as Point will probably need to clear 1,000 points to overcome the lack of individual awards.

Meanwhile, the Golden Knights’ Mark Stone seems to only be getting better with age. He just set a career high with 73 points at age 33, doing so in only 60 games. He’s one of the era’s top defensive forwards, and while he doesn’t have a Selke win, he has three top-five finishes and captained a Stanley Cup champion.

That’s a quietly strong resume, and if Stone had been able to stay healthier, he’d likely fall in a higher tier. Staying in the lineup has been an issue, though, and while there’s no doubting his impact when he’s available, we wonder how high his counting stats will get. He’s already 34, and at 707 points, so he’ll probably need a few more strong seasons (or a Selke win?) to get onto the right side of the bubble.

Quietly, Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jaccob Slavin might actually have the best case of the three. He’s a defensive blueliner, so his counting stats obviously don’t jump off the page, but he’s one of the very best pure defenders of his era. This year he won a Stanley Cup and an Olympic gold medal, and while he only has one top-five Norris finish, he posted a nine-year run in the top 20 before the streak ended last season. He also has twice won the Lady Byng Trophy.

Considering Norris voters’ recent tendency to reward offensive defensemen, it’s notable that Slavin has been so universally recognized for his impacts as more of a classic defender. And while this type of profile doesn’t always garner trophies or first-ballot Hall nods, Slavin’s sustained shutdown excellence feels like it merits special consideration. Kevin Lowe had to wait until the 2020 Hall of Fame class, but he eventually got in. Maybe that is a sign Slavin won’t have to wait so long when his time comes.

The selection committee is made up of former players, executives and journalists. For any candidates in this category — great players but far from locks — having an advocate on the committee can go a long way. For example, newly elected goalie Pekka Rinne could’ve benefited from his former Nashville general manager, David Poile, being a committee member.

Of the returners to this tier, John Carlson is especially worth monitoring going forward as someone who could make a jump. He’s coming off a 60-point season between Washington and Anaheim, his highest since 2021-22, and could continue to rack up scoring numbers after joining Tampa Bay — especially if he takes the departed Darren Raddysh’s spot on the Lightning’s juggernaut top power play. 

The distinction between this group and the “Probably in — and still rising ” tier mainly comes down to where the players’ respective resumes stand today. But everyone listed as “On track” has a great shot to get in if they maintain their current production levels a little longer and potentially add a major piece of hardware to back it up.

There are three new additions to this tier. The Golden Knights’ Jack Eichel has the Cup and now a gold medal, and looks like he’ll remain in Hart and Selke conversations for the near future. He seems to have put some injury questions behind him, too, having played in 63 or more games each of the past four seasons and at least 74 in each of the past two. Teammate Mitch Marner is in the Selke mix too and feels like he made some reputational gains with how well he played this postseason. The 29-year-old is second in points to only Connor McDavid among the loaded 2015 NHL Draft class.

Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski just won a Norris and an Olympic gold, which vaults him into this mix. He didn’t start getting recognition among the truly elite until the last couple seasons, but with that hardware to accompany consecutive top-10 Hart finishes, he’s well on his way to a strong Hall case. He probably needs about two more years at this level to move into the “Probably in — and still rising ” category, and we think he’s plenty capable of doing so.

Out the tier’s returnees, Minnesota Wild defenseman Quinn Hughes has a strong case for a higher tier, right there with Makar as an era-defining blueliner. We debated putting him in that same group this year, but there’s still a resume gap at this time. We fully expect Hughes to move up in the near future as he continues to rack up monster production and likely more hardware. But for now, he probably still fits best here, with just a little more to accomplish.

Another very close call involves David Pastrňák, who has 933 career points, 420 goals, five end-of-season All-Star selections and a Rocket Richard Trophy. If you wanted to compare him to Matthews, the career production is actually pretty similar. But Matthews has the Hart and three Rocket Richards to Pastrňák’s one, which is why we leaned more to this tier for the Boston Bruins sniper. A year from now, though, it’s likely we’ll be talking about Pastrňák already being in the 1,000-point club and a six-time All-Star. That alone might be enough; a Cup or another major individual award would really put it over the top.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Stars’ Mikko Rantanen and the Panthers’ Matthew Tkachuk aren’t likely to win an MVP, though Tkachuk does have a top-three finish on his resume and Rantanen a sixth-place one. But both are well on their way as stat-compilers. Both are under 30 and should comfortably clear 1,000 points, with Cup titles and varying degrees of international success in tow.

Most of these players return from last year’s list, where they were thoroughly discussed. Let’s run through both the new additions, and also touch on a couple returners whose cases might have improved in 2025-26.

Sebastian Aho: A returner, Aho has only one top-10 Hart finish and doesn’t have the elite season-by-season production of typical Hall of Fame forwards. But the Hurricanes center now has a Stanley Cup and an Olympic bronze and — having only just turned 29 — could someday have hard-to-ignore career statistics. He already has 310 goals and 711 points.

Rasmus Dahlin: Last summer, a commenter asked about Dahlin, who wasn’t on the list. We replied that a playoff appearance or another similar individual season to 2024-25 would probably get him into this tier. Well, the Buffalo Sabres defenseman accomplished both. The 26-year-old finished third in Norris voting, the Sabres made the second round of the playoffs and his Hall of Fame likelihood arrow is pointing up.

Jason Robertson: Another newcomer, Robertson only just turned 27, and he has a fourth-place Hart finish and two end-of-season All-Star selections. His numbers dipped after a monster 109-point season in 2022-23, but he got back up to 45 goals and 96 points last season for the Stars. The more seasons like that he can have, the better his case becomes.

Igor Shesterkin: We considered bumping the New York Rangers goalie up a tier from last year because of his 2021-22 Vezina win and a recent run of goalie inductions. But Shesterkin has only one other top-five Vezina finish (fourth in 2023-24), and there’s no way to know how the Hall of Fame committee will view goalies when he’s up for election. So he probably needs another season at least around Vezina finalist-level to move into “On track.”

Ilya Sorokin: If Sorokin had won the Vezina for the New York Islanders in 2025-26 instead of finishing second for the second time in his career, his case might’ve taken an even greater step. But his body of work through six NHL seasons is still good enough to warrant first-time inclusion in the tiers this year and monitoring going forward.

Nick Suzuki: Last season Suzuki won the Selke, finished fifth in Hart voting, topped 100 points, represented Canada at the Olympics, and captained the Montreal Canadiens to the Eastern Conference final. Having just turned 27, he’s done enough to vault from omission into this tier.

RENTON, Wash. — Sam Darnold looks at home.

Relaxed in a chair inside the Seattle Seahawks’ Virginia Mason Athletic Center, about an hour after his latest surgical performance at training camp, Darnold emitted an air of appreciation for all he’s conquered and endured while also poignantly recognizing the top of the mountain is never within reach.

Darnold, now a Super Bowl champion who helped orchestrate the Seahawks’ first championship run in a dozen years, shrugs off the idea that this was the culmination of his journey. Just 29 years old, the No. 3 pick of the 2018 NFL Draft likely isn’t even halfway through his career. And for a quarterback whose trajectory appeared to be completely derailed on several occasions, Darnold has seen far too much to take a day or even a moment for granted.

“A lot of people ask me,” Darnold recently told The Athletic, “like, ‘Come on, man. We’ve heard you say stuff about how you’re just taking it one day at a time, but you’ve got to have certain feelings about certain places you’ve been.’ But it doesn’t do me any good to have that mindset. Even if I did have certain thoughts about certain places, that doesn’t do me any good to air that out.

“Even for myself, when I’m home with my wife, I don’t like talking about things that happened three or four years ago. It’s just like, what are we doing? You know what I mean? That’s just holding onto something that has no meaning. I hold onto the lessons I learned during that time, but it’s just a waste of brain space to think about stuff like that.”

Darnold’s offseason energy was instead devoted to a litany of healthier activities, like exploring Seattle’s touristy attractions and building a community among friends in the area. And while he laughed at the thought, it’s always a fun accomplishment to ditch Apple Maps on the way to work.

Last year, for instance, Darnold and his new wife, Katie, were seemingly perpetually packing and unpacking for weddings. And when they did have downtime at their new house in Seattle, they were building furniture or unpacking — and really, Darnold had become an expert in that area.

“Living in the same area, having that stability, that’s been amazing,” Darnold said. “In terms of being able to stay in one place because I have been — ‘journeyman’ may be a loose term — but I’ve been a journeyman for the last maybe three or four years. It’s been amazing to be able to stay here for this upcoming year and have a stable home instead of just bouncing from apartment to apartment. It can be so tough, and I lived that life for three years. It’s very nice to have a stable home.”

After his first three seasons with the New York Jets, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2010, Darnold was flipped to the Carolina Panthers for a trio of draft picks. But the Panthers were mired in their own organizational crisis, failing to make it work with a QB depth chart that also included Baker Mayfield, and Darnold’s career continued to toil.

Darnold opted for the understudy route with San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan in 2023. The QB was there in the short term to support starter Brock Purdy and in the long term to soak up as much knowledge from one of the NFL’s premier teachers. Darnold cashed in that experience in 2024 for a spot in Kevin O’Connell’s school of quarterbacking with the Minnesota Vikings, who also traded up in the first round for QB J.J. McCarthy. Darnold signed a $10 million deal, so he was also going to have to overcome the organization’s investment in the rookie.

Darnold outlasted McCarthy, who needed meniscus surgery in camp, and transformed his career in a borderline unpredictable fashion. He set career highs with 4,319 passing yards and 35 touchdowns, and his 66.2 completion percentage was his best until he topped it (67.7) in 2025. The Vikings won 14 games and played for the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the season finale before their offensive line wore down, Darnold took a pummeling, and they succumbed unceremoniously in back-to-back games.

The Seahawks certainly didn’t lose faith in Darnold because of the way it ended and swooped in with a three-year, $100.5 million contract in free agency. Though the Seahawks had been disciplined in their quarterback pursuit in recent years, bypassing the idea of aggressively trading up in the draft, they had to pivot in 2025 when Geno Smith wanted too much money. Even so, Darnold still signed a prove-it deal relative to the influx of booming contracts around the league.

Ultimately, Darnold was one of the league’s greatest bargains. And sometime following the season, Darnold and the Seahawks are likely going to address the idea of an extension.

Is Seattle where Darnold would like to finish his career?

“That’s always the dream, right?” Darnold said. “But you just never know what’s going to happen. That’s why, for my entire career, I’ve treated everything — I would say one year at a time, but it’s really one day at a time. I don’t look past today. We’ve got to crush tonight’s meetings. And tonight, I’m going to look at tomorrow’s script and make sure I’m ready for tomorrow’s practice.

“I just do everything I can to be the best quarterback for this team as long as I’m the quarterback and just go from there.”

Sam Darnold was 14-3 as a starter in the regular season last season for the Seahawks and helped them win their first Super Bowl title since 2013. (Steven Bisig / Imagn Images)

Darnold’s task-focused mentality meshes nicely with coach Mike Macdonald, who masterfully blends his guidance of the overall team mission with his ability to get into the nitty-gritty with crucial details.

Last season, for instance, Darnold delivered in the clutch over and again, notably with an incredible comeback in Week 16 against the Los Angeles Rams to reshape Seattle’s season. Over the Seahawks’ final four games — another finale with the No. 1 seed on the line before a three-game march to glory — Darnold completed 65 percent of his passes for 870 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.

Whether it was Darnold’s four game-winning drives or the steadying hand in the postseason, he traced it all to preparation for the moment. Darnold, Macdonald and former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, now the Las Vegas Raiders head coach, spent countless reps with those situations in mind.

“I think I’ve always been comfortable in that situation, but I also think it’s about practicing the moment and visualizing it,” Darnold said. “It was like, all right, this is what we’re going to call. By that time last year, I knew exactly what our coordinator was going to call, and you know what routes we like for certain coverages, what I could check into against certain coverages. It’s just being glued into those situations, having done them so much in walk-throughs to where it’s like, OK, I know exactly what we’re doing. I think that’s where the comfort comes from.”

Darnold made a couple throws Aug. 3 during team drills in practice that were representative of that time spent. One appeared easy, as he delivered a post route to Cooper Kupp before the receiver got out of his break.

The other, a deep corner route to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, was entirely about reading defensive leverage through the same eyes as his receiver. It was a tricky read, though, so the long connection with the reigning Offensive Player of the Year couldn’t have happened without the chemistry together.

Nothing is seamless, however. New offensive coordinator Brian Fleury overlapped with Darnold in San Francisco, but Fleury has never called plays before. They’ve got a nice foundation with a ton of carryover within the system, but Darnold and Fleury simply need experience to hit a similar groove.

Macdonald wants them to reach a point where they have a full alignment on concepts they like to run, how many plays are worth taking into a game, how they’ll work together in high-leverage situations and the like.

“The sky is the limit. Why would I put a limit on his development?” Macdonald said. “We respect what he’s gone through, but it’s not like we’re factoring that in on how we coach him. We invested in him, so we’re going to dive in headfirst and just go rip it. It’s really that simple.

“Right now in camp, how far can we take your game? So let’s just go for it and see where we land in a month. We’re not doing that by going through the motions. We’re going through that by having the correct mix of really pushing him, schematically challenging him on defense, setting up situations to have success, coaching the heck out of him, talking situational football.”

Darnold is still fine-tuning plenty of elements in his own game, too. There are route concepts, for example, when he feels his footwork and base getting too loose, which has resulted in errant throws. Now’s the time to shore up any undesirable habits.

For what it’s worth, Darnold also knows he’ll get clobbered by Macdonald’s defense if he doesn’t show up every day hyper-focused. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores practices with an attack-first, offense-be-damned philosophy, so Darnold and the offense can’t just go through the motions with the calls on the play sheets — he’s got to be prepared to make checks at the line just to survive a practice.

“It’s challenging as a quarterback to make certain calls, but that’s the fun part about playing quarterback, man,” Darnold said as his smile widened. “I’ve watched Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers make all these checks at the line of scrimmage. When you get to dissect the defense, figure out what they’re doing, be able to check them, get into a good play call, that’s always really fun for me.”

On the exterior, Darnold looks to be at ease. He’s relaxed, comfortable, in total control.

Internally, he’s the opposite. He doesn’t see a singular destination within his drive to squeeze everything imaginable out of the game. Therefore, a Super Bowl was never the end result, but one checkpoint along the way.

“I’ve never felt like I’ve reached the pinnacle. I never feel like I will,” Darnold said. “My dad always taught me everything happens for a reason, so I’ve always had that mindset. As long as you work hard, hard work is going to pay off at some point, whether it’s in your football life or your life as a husband, as a father one day, as a grandparent.

“Those lessons you learn while working hard and going through tough times, they pay off eventually. You just may not know when.”