WASHINGTON — There is a scene in the film “Moneyball” where general manager Billy Beane declares that his Oakland Athletics will try to recreate Jason Giambi in the aggregate.
Washington Nationals president of baseball operations Paul Toboni did not make that exact claim for his club, nor did he trade an MVP candidate away, but there is a similar thread to pull on here. The Nats, at least as currently constructed, felt comfortable replacing recently traded players Foster Griffin, Luis García Jr. and Curtis Mead internally while adding to the farm system.
“It’s really tough to replace those guys — like, Curtis and Luis both, they’ve been two of the best hitters in the major leagues this year,” Toboni said on trade deadline day. “That being said … ideally, we can look up a month or two from now and say, ‘Hey, the offense hasn’t slowed down much.’ If anything, it’d be cool if we reached new heights.”
The claim was bold. It came with caveats. And yet, after dropping seven of eight on the road, the Nationals came home and completed a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds on Sunday. The players they acquired have already produced, and the fill-ins have … filled in admirably. Has that made the deadline sell-off easier to sell to the clubhouse? Can we say that the Nats have nailed the whole “compete now and later” strategy? Both are TBD.
But there’s a compelling vision. Here’s what it looks like and what the team expects from the 2026 fill-ins and the possible 2027 debutants, leaning on what we’re hearing around the organization and seeing in small, encouraging samples.
Do trade deadline deals lead to World Series rings?
Joe Crisalli
Recreating 1B Luis García Jr.
What they have to replace: The highest slugging percentage in the National League.
Who’s being asked to fill in: Andrés Chaparro and Abimelec Ortiz.
Why this could work: These guys rake.
Replacing García’s clubhouse presence? Hard. Replacing his NL-best .560 slugging percentage? Hard, but more feasible.
Ortiz has three extra-base hits and even more hard outs in 22 MLB at-bats. He had an .845 OPS this season in Triple-A Rochester, with underlying metrics that indicate he was a bit unlucky. And while it might be unfair to expect Ortiz to replicate Garcia’s power, he rarely chases, which could help him maintain a higher OBP.
Oh, and almost everything that was just said about Ortiz applies in some way to Chaparro, be it through hard contact, bad luck or a high OBP.
The Nationals like Ortiz’s mature approach and believe it’s sustainable. They believe Chaparro could have a Mead-like trajectory, beginning as a platoon bat against lefties before eventually earning regular at-bats against righties (possibly at DH or third base).
Recreating Foster Griffin
What they have to replace: Almost a guaranteed win.
Who’s being asked to fill in: Andrew Alvarez and … a TBD Triple-A starter.
Why this could work: Tutelage and peripherals.
Players brought in on one-year deals are not always the best mentors. Griffin was different. The lefty helped his peers tweak their game-planning routines, especially Alvarez. Over the last few weeks, Alvarez has prepared by watching the opposing hitters’ most recent at-bats against lefties, because that’s what Griffin taught him to do.
“Sometimes, reports and things that you look at on paper might not tell the whole story,” Alvarez said. “I’m not gonna watch someone throwing 99 (mph) and play that and do it, but … it’s watching their sequences in the last 30 days, and just getting visuals, seeing how they’re reacting to certain sequences, but then also knowing myself and what I do.”
Couple that with improved fastball command, and the Nats may have a guy down the stretch. Alvarez has allowed 3 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings over his last two outings. And while xERA is not everything, the gap between Alvarez (4.33) and Griffin (4.06) isn’t that wide.
Couple that with an upcoming debut from Jackson Kent or Luis Perales (one of whom could replace Zack Littell, after the Nats designated him for assignment last week), and there’s a world in which Washington’s starting rotation has some juice down the stretch.
Recreating Curtis Mead
What they have to replace: One of the best offensive third basemen in MLB.
Who’s being asked to fill in: Brady House and Jorbit Vivas.
Why this could work: It might not, but House is hitting well.
The trade with the most sound logic is also the one that could harm the team the most over the next two months. The Nationals would take that Mead-for-Connelly Early deal 10 times out of 10, but finding everyday production from the hot corner is not as easy as it sounds.
That is largely due to Washington’s inability to find an answer against right-handed pitching. The Nationals acquired Vivas this spring because his swing decisions gave the coaching staff a base to work from, but it hasn’t led to much production. Vivas, a lefty, entered Sunday with a .666 OPS against righties in 215 plate appearances.
The case for everyday at-bats for House: The former top-100 prospect has hit well since his return from Triple-A Rochester. His xSLG against righties since returning is .527, which is still better than the .376 he had before his demotion, albeit in a limited sample. The club wants to ease him in, but at this point, unless the Nats believe regular at-bats against righties will disrupt House’s development, he appears ready to play every day. (Vivas entered Sunday with a .324 xSLG against righties).
The downside: If you really want to protect House against the best righties in MLB, there isn’t an obvious left-handed infielder to call up from Rochester. But maybe that’s OK. The platoon-heavy lineup has worked everywhere except third base. They could cycle various right-handed hitters through and, if they recalled Yohandy Morales from Triple-A Rochester, they could have him fill in at third or DH.
The plan for six other key deadline additions
(Non-Connelly Early edition, as he’s been covered.)
RHP Jack Cebert (from New York in the García trade)
What he’s done in 2026: 3.84 ERA in 86 2/3 innings, 10.59 K/9, 2.80 BB/9 across two levels.
What he’s done with the Nats: Four scoreless innings in his debut with Double-A Harrisburg.
What the club thinks he will do: He’s a five-pitch guy with the potential to add one or two more pitches to help him get left-handed hitters out. The Nats also value that he has three fastballs. The primary weapon is the sweeper, which is getting a whiff rate greater than 40 percent in the minor leagues. The metrics on the pitch itself aren’t nutty, but they’re good, and he throws it from a wide angle with lengthy extension and good command.
RHP Ben Grable (from New York in the García trade)
What he’s done in 2026: 2.33 ERA in 38 2/3 innings, 13.97 K/9, 2.33 BB/9 across two levels.
What he’s done with the Nats: Struck out four in one inning (one batter reached based on a wild pitch after striking out) in his second appearance with Double-A Harrisburg.
What the club thinks he will do: The Nats have taught many of their pitching prospects to develop better sliders, because that is something smart organizations do. It is much harder to teach an elite fastball outside of a velocity bump, which makes it valuable to acquire pitchers with elite fastballs. Grable’s fastball misses the zone 35 percent of the time in Double-A (hat tip to George Lewis’ stellar prospect guide) because of how he throws it (with extreme carry and good velocity). That would be one of the highest rates in MLB. The Nats, accordingly, tout Grable as one of the best relief prospects in the minors. He uses the fastball about 70 percent of the time, a rate the organization isn’t yet sure should go up or down. If the Nats want it to go up, it helps that one of their pitching coaches, Sean Doolittle, used to throw a fastball 90 percent of the time.
RHP Yovanny Cruz (from New York in the García trade)
What he’s done in 2026: 2.35 ERA in 7 2/3 innings, 10.57 K/9, 4.70 BB/9 in MLB; 3.53 ERA in 35 2/3 innings, 13.12 K/9, 3.53 BB/9 in Triple A.
What he’s done with the Nats: Throw the Nationals’ fastest fastball of the Statcast era, with a computer metrics-breaking slider.
What the club thinks he will do: Ideally, pitch in the back end of their bullpen for years to come. It’s too early to make that claim, but he has the stuff to do it. They think he could become a true three-pitch guy. He already has an elite slider and a fastball that sits at 100 mph, but a dominant splitter on top of those two pitches could be a difference-maker. We saw as much against Elly De La Cruz on Saturday, when Cruz fed the Cincinnati Reds star two splitters to strike out the shortstop before strutting off the mound.
LHP Will Dion (from Cleveland in the Griffin trade)
What he’s done in 2026: 3.86 ERA in 23 1/3 innings, 10.03 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 in MLB; 3.62 ERA in 37 1/3 innings, 12.54 K/9, 1.69 BB/9 in Triple A.
What he’s done with the Nats: Pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings.
What the club thinks he will do: Handle both-handed hitters well, and pitch in every role imaginable. Generally speaking, pitchers who throw from as high of an arm slot as Dion does fare better against same-sided hitters than the low-slot lefties the Nats have cycled through. His three scoreless innings Sunday against the Reds’ right-handed-heavy lineup were pretty good evidence for this theory, as were his reverse splits this season in Triple A.
LHP Josh Hartle (from Cleveland in the Griffin trade)
What he’s done in 2026: 3.74 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, 8.67 K/9, 3.38 BB/9 across two levels.
What he’s done with the Nats: 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 7 K in his debut with Double-A Harrisburg.
What the club thinks he will do: Hartle is a post-hype candidate who can spin the ball in a manner that’s hard to teach. There’s a lot left to refine and tighten up, but the raw characteristics are there, and there’s a chance for him to add strength in the offseason.
RHP Joe Glassey (from Baltimore in the Christian Franklin trade)
What he’s done in 2026: 2.48 ERA in 32 2/3 innings, 15.70 K/9, 2.48 BB/9 across two levels.
What he’s done with the Nats: Thrown two scoreless innings with Double-A Harrisburg.
What the club thinks he will do: If you want a deal to go under the radar, trade a Triple-A outfielder for a Double-A reliever one hour before the deadline. But Glassey has the second-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the minor leagues, and that’s a strong predictor of future success. His is a low-slot, high-extension profile that’s hard to find.
