Buy Bryce Eldridge, sell Otto Lopez, hold Gunnar Henderson in fantasy baseball

The middle part of the season is the hardest to manage. Will the breakouts hold or vanish like smoke? Is your second-tier star in a cold streak, or are their skills declining? Let’s look at some unexpected results. Oh, and pick up Edwin Arroyo if he’s still available!

Buy

Bryce Eldridge, 1B, SF

Eldridge has power. He also has a swing built to maximize that power, with a 27.3% pull-air rate that is among the highest in the league. His park and its foggy air have conspired to keep a few of his long flies in the yard, but those factors won’t contain him forever. Statcast is a big believer — by his expected stats, he should have an elite .298 average and .568 slugging. The question is whether he can keep his swinging-strike rate to the tidy 10% he has had so far. That’s a tall order for someone 6-foot-7 who swings for the fences, but if he can, Eldridge could be a star.

Ramon Laureano, OF, SD

Last season, Laureano had a monster year by swinging less and hitting the ball harder when he did. This year, the barrel rate is better than ever, but by other metrics he’s gone backward. He’s striking out more and pulling the ball less. In many ways, he looks like the 2024 version with more walks and a much lower BABIP. I’m not sure which one is the “real” one, but he should get an uptick in power and average going forward. The upside hope is that the bat gets better and he keeps stealing at his current pace. His seven thefts already match last year’s total.

Tyler Stephenson, C, CIN

It would be easy enough to brush off Stephenson’s past couple of weeks as a random hot streak, but he looks more like his old self. While it’s hard to pin down a single version of Stephenson’s “old self,” he has shown the ability to hit for both average and power. His 12% barrel rate and 12.8% walk rate provide a solid foundation, and the .250 BABIP ought to rise substantially.

Nolan McLean, SP, NYM

McLean hit a rough patch and suddenly his full-season numbers look pretty ordinary. His fastball was down a tick in his clunkers against the Nationals and Reds, but it was back up for his wobbly start against the Marlins. He’s human, and these things happen. He should get back to being a top-20 starter, and it’s not a bad time to check in with his managers in case they’re getting skittish.

Sell

Otto Lopez, SS, MIA

If you read my column last year, you know I’m usually a Lopez booster, but that was when he was hitting in the .240s with the skills of a .270 hitter. I’m still a fan, but if someone wants to pay up like he’s the new and improved Luis Arraez, you can take that deal. Projection systems give him a BABIP around .315 going forward, which feels about right for someone with plenty of speed and a little power. That means he has about 60 points of headroom on his current figure, and he’s very BABIP-dependent, as someone who rarely walks. Also, he’s chasing more and swinging in the zone less this year. He’s a fun player, just not this good.

Owen Caissie, OF, MIA

Caissie had a stellar May, hitting .281 with three homers. With his raw power, he only needs an acceptable batting average to be very valuable. Unfortunately, without some changes, that average will come down. He also had a .433 BABIP in May, and while he will likely be a high-BABIP guy, no one runs a BABIP that high. His strikeout rate is above 40%, and they rarely let you keep playing baseball if you can’t bring that figure down. You can squint and see some Oneil Cruz here, but Cruz’s tools are off the charts, and it took years for him to put it all together. I love betting on big power guys, and I root for players with my name — because, why not? — but I can’t quite talk myself into Caissie.

J.T. Ginn, SP, OAK

As a ground-ball pitcher, Ginn has a skill set that sometimes goes underappreciated. A 21.6% K rate and a 47.5% ground-ball rate can get you far in this world. However, that sub-3 ERA won’t last, and the sub-4 one might not either. His 10.8% walk rate isn’t terrible, but I’d feel a lot better about the entire package if he could knock that down. The more likely scenario is that his .234 BABIP rises and he becomes an average MLB starter, which won’t cut it in most fantasy leagues.

Anthony Kay, SP, CWS

Kay has been one of the bright spots on the South Side, leading to the White Sox competing for the division right now. He’s a deep-leaguer as it is, but he likely won’t even be that in a month. It’s just very hard to keep runs off the board with a sub-20% K rate, and if you add a run to Kay’s ERA (as every ERA-estimator and projection system does), there’s not much to work with for fantasy purposes.

Hold

Gunnar Henderson, SS, BAL

It’s difficult to get managers to trade their first pick, but they might be getting to the point of listening to offers for Henderson, who has had a very uneven year. The power looks good — he’s on pace for 30+ homers — but something’s out of whack on the hitting side. He’s chasing more, striking out more and walking less. His .251 BABIP is also 61 points below his career line, so there may be some bad luck mixed in. His bat speed is down a tick, and there’s a corresponding dip in his average and maximum exit velocity, so he may have a physical issue (though he’s still doing fine in the home run department). Despite all that, he’s on pace for around 35 homers and 16 steals. The average should improve, as the track record shows he should be better than this. If his manager is getting sick of him, I’d be happy to take Henderson off their hands, but if I’m his manager, I’m holding.

Kody Clemens, 1B/OF, MIN

This one is league-dependent, but I buy the current version of Clemens and see a little room for optimism. He has the best barrel rate of his career (13.9%), and he should be able to at least keep his average in the .230s. As long as he stays healthy, he can get his homer total into the mid-20s.

Shane Baz, SP, BAL

Baz has always had good enough stuff to keep people interested, despite middling results last year when he finally had a full season of work. This season, he’s shown flashes of excellence and flashes of “meh.” He hasn’t gotten enough whiffs to reach the levels that many people were hoping for, but in his past two starts, both against his former team, he pitched in the zone much more and saw better results. His velocity was also down a little, which could be a conscious choice or a worrying physical issue. He’s worth holding for a few more turns to see if he can take a step forward.