How referee calls shaped the Premier League: What the table could have looked like with correct decisions

The Premier League title race would have entered the final match round with Manchester City two points clear of Arsenal, according to The Athletic’s analysis of key match decisions made by referees and their video assistants.

Fulham would have qualified for the Europa League at Sunderland’s expense, but the same three teams would still have been relegated if the officials had reached the outcomes preferred by the Premier League’s independent panel of former players.

The panel meets weekly throughout the season to assess every key match incident (KMI), defined as potential or actual red cards, penalties and offences in the attacking phase before a goal.

Its scorecard overall suggests few clubs can blame refereeing errors for their final league placing, but the title race may have taken a different course.

We went through every outcome of the KMI panel and compiled a list of on-field errors that were not corrected by VAR, and the three decisions that were right in the first place, but the video official overturned wrongly.

After removing factual decisions relating to offsides and the ball being out of play, we then assessed whether the incorrect call had an impact on the match.

For example, a penalty wrongly awarded to Arsenal in added time against Leeds United was discounted, as the resultant spot kick was converted to take the score from 4-0 to 5-0.

We assume that penalties would have been scored, and that early red cards would have much greater impact than those in the final few minutes.

The biggest beneficiaries were Arsenal, Chelsea and Sunderland, who we reckon were each four points better off. By contrast, Bournemouth were down by four points, and Fulham by three.

Only in the case of Newcastle United did decisions truly equal themselves out over the season.

The data also suggests there may be some truth in the argument that referees are reluctant to commit to decisions given the existence of VAR’s safety net.

According to the KMI panel, a further 17 red cards and 36 penalties should have been awarded on the field over the course of the season, even if many of these were not so obviously incorrect that the VAR should have intervened.

There was a clear home advantage in relation to spot kicks, as the hosts were awarded 45 compared to the visitors’ 35. The panel found that it should have been a 58-58 draw had all decisions been made correctly in the first place.

Drill down further and there are innumerable anomalies. For example, there were only six penalties awarded on-field in matches involving Chelsea, but the KMI reckons there should have been 16. Brentford managed to be involved in incidents that should have led to 24 penalties, while Aston Villa were at the other end of the range on three.

Some readers may disagree with our analysis, and of course there are many decisions that the KMI panel deemed correct or incorrect that fans from all teams will dispute.

But the KMI panel’s musings offer the only official record of the 2025-26 season and still provide a fascinating insight into the impact that referees and VARs have on the final league table.

Arsenal

The champions generally had the rub of the green throughout the season, and in three matches decisions went their way that almost certainly had a positive impact on their final points tally.

All involved penalties that should have been awarded against them in matches they won by a single goal. William Saliba fouled Thierno Barry at Everton by kicking through his leg in the area.

Declan Rice handled at home against Chelsea from a corner in the area while grappling with Jorrel Hato…

… and Gabriel Martinelli hauled Mats Wieffer to the ground at Brighton & Hove Albion as a cross came in.

The only call the other way that had a likely impact on the outcome was a missed subjective offside at Stamford Bridge, Trevoh Chalobah scoring from a corner despite Enzo Fernandez standing beyond David Raya, which was Chelsea’s solitary goal in a 1-1 draw.

Net gain: four points

Aston Villa

Villa’s only meaningful gripe was the referee’s failure to dismiss James Garner for a second yellow card for felling Morgan Rogers on the edge of the area in their home match with Everton.

The score was 0-0 at the time, in the 57th minute, and the visitors snatched a late winner.

Net loss: Two points

Brighton & Hove Albion

One-nil down at home against the future champions, Brighton should have been awarded a penalty just before half-time when Wieffer was pulled over by Martinelli. There was a long way to go but Fabian Hurzeler’s side were deprived a great chance to secure a point.

Net loss: one point

Bournemouth

With the scores level at 2-2 in the 54th minute at Chelsea, Malo Gusto handled in the box from a James Tavernier cross, but Bournemouth’s appeals were wrongly waved away and VAR failed to intervene.

Drawing 0-0 at home with Brentford in March, the visitors should have conceded a penalty and been put down to 10 men when Tavernier was tripped in the area by Michael Kayode.

There were incidents in both their matches with Sunderland that arguably evened each other out. They should not have conceded a penalty at the Stadium of Light when Alex Scott challenged Reinildo in a game they lost 3-2, but at home, they were lucky when Alex Jimenez’s clumsy barge into Enzo Le Fee went unpunished in a 1-1 draw.

Net loss: four points

Brentford

Brentford were highly fortunate not to lose skipper Nathan Collins at home against Manchester United. With his side leading 2-1, he gave away a penalty for pulling back former team-mate Bryan Mbeumo but should also have been sent off for denying a goalscoring opportunity.

They had similar fortune at Bournemouth, where Kayode should have conceded a spot kick and been sent off just after half-time in a goalless draw.

On the other side of the ledger, they should have been awarded penalties in their 2-1 loss at Sunderland (Reinildo hauling down Collins from a corner) and their 2-2 home draw with Wolves when midfielder Andre paid no attention to the ball as he grappled with Kevin Schade.

Their matches with Tottenham Hotspur were eventful to say the least. Decisions evened pretty much themselves out at home, where Cristian Romero should have been sent off for chopping down Igor Thiago as he raced towards the area, but Archie Gray was fouled in the area at the other end by Schade.

At Spurs, Romero was again fortunate to stay on when he ploughed into the back of Thiago in the 30th minute. The home side were leading 1-0 and the Tottenham defender was shown a yellow card, but Brentford would have fancied at least securing a point had he seen red.

Net gain: two points

Burnley

Manchester United had a goal wrongly disallowed at Turf Moor in a game that finished 2-2.

Burnley might have got a result at Arsenal last month had Kai Havertz been sent off for his calf-high challenge on Lesley Ugochukwu when the home side were 1-0 up, but that seems unlikely.

Net gain: one point

Chelsea

Despite their appalling disciplinary record, Chelsea can have few complaints about the officials this season.

Their 2-0 home win over Fulham came after Josh King was cruelly denied his first Premier League goal by an incorrect VAR intervention, with Rodrigo Muniz penalised for standing on Chalobah’s foot. We’ll never know, but it’s hard to believe the visitors would still have lost.

Chelsea’s goal in a 1-1 draw with Arsenal, scored by Chalobah, could have been disallowed for Fernandez being offside, while they should have conceded penalties during draws at Newcastle United (for Chalobah slamming into Anthony Gordon in the box) and at home against Bournemouth for Gusto’s handball.

They can only feel aggrieved about the penalty they should have been awarded when Rice handled at the Emirates.

Net gain: four points

Crystal Palace

They may have won anyway but the score was 0-0 when Wolves were wrongly reduced to 10 men at Selhurst Park with half an hour to play, Ladislav Krejci shown a second yellow card for not realising that the ball had gone out before he booted it upfield.

Net gain: two points

Everton

Wins on the road at Wolves and Aston Villa were in part facilitated by decisions that went their way.

Iliman Ndiaye should have conceded a penalty at Molineux for tripping Hugo Bueno while Garner deserved to be sent off at Villa Park.

They missed out on penalties in two matches they lost by the odd goal — Arsenal at home for Saliba’s foul on Barry and away at West Ham United when Mateus Fernandes handled the ball.

They also would have surely have closed out a win against Manchester City at the Hill Dickinson Stadium had the VAR not intervened after Bernardo Silva rugby tackled Merlin Rohl during a corner kick.

Net loss: one point

Fulham

Points dropped in August arguably cost Fulham a place in the Europa League next season.

First, Manchester United’s opening goal at Craven Cottage was wrongly allowed to stand on-field, albeit that the error of not penalising Leny Yoro for a two-handed push on Calvin Bassey was not considered ‘clear and obvious’.

Then the following week, King thought he had put them 1-0 up at Chelsea but the goal was wrongly ruled out and his side lost.

Net loss: three points

Leeds United

Wrongly denied a penalty at home against Sunderland when Luke O’Nien brought down Pascal Struijk at a corner, Leeds went on to lose 1-0.

Net loss: one point

Liverpool

This felt like a Sliding Doors moment. Liverpool had hit the skids after a decent start to the season but were in the game at the Etihad Stadium when Virgil van Dijk looked to have equalised with a header, only for the flag to be raised because Andy Robertson was deemed to have affected Manchester City goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma’s ability to make a save.

The KMI panel voted 3-2 that this was incorrect, but not so obviously wrong that the VAR should step in. Liverpool may have lost 3-0 anyway, of course, but they will argue it was at least one point denied.

Net loss: one point

Manchester City

While Liverpool were cursing their luck when the sides met at City (see above), the hosts went on to win and move up to second in the league, where they remained for almost all of the season.

Another occasion they were fortunate was when Ruben Dias escaped a second yellow card right after half-time at Nottingham Forest, with the game still goalless. With 11 men, City won 2-1.

They were trailing Everton 3-2 when Bernardo Silva wrestled Rohl to the ground at a corner, then went up the other end and equalised through Jeremy Doku.

Otherwise, decisions went against Pep Guardiola’s side.

They would surely have beaten local rivals United had Diogo Dalot been sent off for a foul on Doku in the 10th minute but lost 2-0.

And it is hard to believe they would have left St James’ Park pointless had they been awarded the penalty they deserved after 17 minutes, when Fabian Schar took out Phil Foden as he got a shot away.

Net loss: two points

Manchester United

The decision to allow Dalot to stay on the field with 80 minutes to play in the Manchester derby was a major factor in their 2-0 win. They could also be thankful that the goal that earned them a point at Fulham was wrongly allowed to stand.

Their gripes would include the missed red card at Brentford, although Bruno Fernandes’ failure to convert a penalty at 2-1 also played its part in their eventual defeat.

And a perfectly good goal was ruled out in their 2-2 draw at Burnley when Lisandro Martinez scored but was penalised for Kyle Walker going down when he came into contact with the United defender earlier in the move.

Net gain: one point

Newcastle United

The only two incidents that affected Newcastle both occurred in the same penalty area at St James’ Park.

They escaped conceding a penalty when the scores were tied 0-0 against Manchester City and went on to win but they only drew after being denied a spot kick when Chalobah charged into Gordon against Chelsea.

No difference

Nottingham Forest

There’s no question that Dias should have received a second yellow card when Manchester City visited Forest in December, and there’s every chance the home side would have gained at least a point.

The incident prompted Forest to complain formally about repeated refereeing errors in their matches but according to the KMI panel, this was their only legitimate grievance all season.

Net loss: one point

Sunderland

The Black Cats rode their luck three times. Penalties should have been conceded by Reinildo (at home against Brentford) and O’Nien (at Leeds), both for holding in the box that even the KMI panel thought went too far. And that’s a high bar.

They were also thankful for the penalty won at home against Bournemouth, as it helped spark a revival from 2-0 down to a 3-2 win, Reinildo getting his body in front of Scott before going down.

In the reverse fixture, the tables were turned when Jimenez got away with bundling over Enzo Le Fee early in the sides’ 1-1 draw.

Net gain: four points

Tottenham Hotspur

Spurs’ precarious league position going into the final day was nothing to do with decisions going against them.

None of the incorrect decisions that went against them can reasonably be claimed to have cost them any points. They should have had a penalty at Brentford but would have already been down to 10 men by then, as Romero should have been off.

Romero should also have walked after half an hour when the same sides met at Tottenham, casting doubt on the home team’s victory.

Net gain: two points

West Ham United

There were eight errors in West Ham’s matches, but only one undeniably affected an outcome.

Everton would almost certainly have left east London with a point had Fernandes been penalised for handling late in the sides’ clash in April.

Net gain: two points

Wolverhampton Wanderers

It seems unlikely the season would have panned out differently had Wolves been awarded the penalty they deserved in a 3-2 home defeat by Everton in August.

The die was almost cast by the time Krejci was wrongly sent off at Crystal Palace before his side conceded the only goal of the game. They were doomed by the time they got their only break, when Brentford were denied a penalty in a 2-2 draw at the GTech Community Stadium as Andre brought down Schade.

Net loss: one points