In a summer where Gen Z YouTube filmmakers like Curry Barker and Kane Parsons are changing the game at the box office, it would be really sweet if the blockbuster master Steven Spielberg himself could break through. That remains the question with his latest extraterrestrial movie Disclosure Day which is hoping to beam in around $35M in its North American start and around $65M around the world in 73 offshore markets. If the Universal and Amblin theatrical release hits those figures stateside, the $115M net production will likely be No. 1.

However, since the reviews have hit Rotten Tomatoes, the certified grade has eased from 90% to currently 85% at the time of publication. That figure is higher than Spielberg’s War of the Worlds (76%), A.I. (76%), but slightly lower than Close Encounters of the Third Kind (91%) and Minority Report (89%)

Note, Disclosure Day is a very different kind of Spielbergian sci-fi movie, many calling it a throwback to 1970s thrillers like The Parallax View. No UFOs, no stomping metallic and laser emitting creatures, just very attuned animals and Emily Blunt acting like she’s psychic. Colin Firth, Josh O’Connor, Colman Domingo, Wyatt Russell, and Eve Hewson also star. Spoiler alert: There are some cameos by aliens. Will audiences go for this?

Spielberg’s top domestic opening ever as a director belongs to 2008’s Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull with a 3-day of $100.1M (and 5-day of $151.9M). But when it comes to his first installment and original titles (and we’re including Jurassic World and Ready Player One which were based on books, but we’re not counting Oscar contending dramas like Lincoln, Bridge of Spies, Munich, etc.), there’s usually a ceiling at the B.O. for the 3x Oscar winning filmmaker. Read, 1993’s Jurassic Park opened to a 3-day/previews of $50.1M (massive at the time), Minority Report starring Tom Cruise posted a 3-day of $35.6M while the 2001 $100M feature production A.I. opened to $29.3M. Sometimes a Spielberg event is launched around a holiday in order to get the extra juice, i.e. Ready Player One posted a 3-day of $41.7M, 4-day of $53.7M over Easter 2018, Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull opened over Memorial Day, while the director’s second Cruise movie, War of the Worlds, was a 2005 July 4th tentpole with a 3-day of $64.8M, 6-day of $112.7M stateside.

Quite often for Spielberg, it’s about the legs with such pics in their domestic opening-to-final cume results posting high figures, read Jurassic Park 8x and Saving Private Ryan 7x. However, his original sci-fi fare is generally around a 3x multiple, i.e. Minority Report and War of the Worlds, but A.I. was 2.7x. (final domestic of $78.6M). Going way back, Spielberg’s 1970s and ’80s classics in their first theatrical runs had massive multiples, i.e. Jaws was close to 37x, E.T. was 30.4x while Close Encounters was 25.5x.

First choice for Disclosure Day is best with guys over 25, but overall it’s behind Project Hail Mary, Ready Player One and One Battle After Another.

Foreign B.O. opening comps in like-for-likes are Warner Bros’ Paul Thomas Anderson’s multi-Oscar winner One Battle After Another ($27M foreign bow with previews) and 2016’s Denis Villeneuve sci-fi feature Arrival ($26.4M opening with previews). Disclosure Day as a mature sophisticated sci-fi movie is expected to play well in the UK, France, Germany and Australia. Note, Ready Player One, because it’s based on the bestselling YA novel by Ernest Cline, isn’t a comp here; that pic opening offshore to $49M ($102.7M WW) fueled by a very vibrant pre-Covid China marketplace (the pic ultimately made $204M in China, and $183M in the rest of its overseas B.O.).

Paramount and Miramax’s Scary Movie hopes to decline -60% with around $21M in U.S./Canada, after its $54.3M franchise record opening. Pic’s running stateside cume through Tuesday is $64M (the pic won the day’s top spot in North America with $5.5M over Focus Features’ Obsession which did $5.1M in second). Moviegoers will continue to swoon for that Curry Barker movie which is expected to post a fifth frame around $20M. The highest grossing fifth weekends for a horror movie is owned by Sixth Sense ($22.8M) followed by Paranormal Activity ($21.1M). The running domestic total on Obsession is $161.2M, officially ahead of Stars Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu ($158.3M).

Amazon MGM Studios’ second weekend of Masters of the Universe and A24’s Backrooms‘ third weekend look to do about $12M apiece. Running domestic cume on He-Man and friends is $34.7M, while Backrooms stands at $143M.

Bleecker Street has the Adam Shankman directed, RuPaul starring comedy Stop! That! Train! in 1,157 locations with an outlook in the low single digits. Pic’s blurb: Two train stewardess BFFs switch from a dull railway to the luxurious Glamazonian Express. During a massive storm, they must work with snooty first-class crew and President Gagwell (Ru-Paul) to prevent disaster in LA. The Rotten Tomatoes scores among critics is 92% fresh. Jujubee, Ginger Minj, Latrice Royale, Brock Hayhoe, Paul Scheer, Joel McHale, and Sarah Michelle Gellar also star.