Phillies did not land a starting pitcher at trade deadline. Is it a risk they’ll regret?

PHILADELPHIA — The Phillies searched for starting pitching depth in the weeks ahead of the trade deadline, prioritizing the position as they scouted the market. Even on Monday, in the hours before the deadline, league sources, granted anonymity to discuss private trade conversations, said the Phillies continued to seek starting pitching.

But 6 p.m. ET came and went, and the Phillies did not add a starting pitcher. It is a remarkable and likely consequential decision for a team that has gone 5-22 from the fifth spot in the rotation — a gaping hole that has been one of the club’s biggest flaws.

“I’ve said this all along: you always want to get better at every position,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. “But we feel that if we can make it to the postseason, our starting rotation’s in really solid shape. Other people are looking to add to their top three. In our situation here, that wasn’t a necessity.

If we were going to do it and add somebody, they would have had to be significantly better, in our opinion, than Andrew (Painter), than just acquiring another arm.”

Should the Phillies reach the postseason, their top three starters — Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez — would rival any other team’s. But, in order to get to October, they must have some level of competency from their fourth and fifth starters. Now, the Phillies are betting Aaron Nola and Painter can provide that.

It is a gamble, even after Nola took a step forward in July. He produced a 4.34 ERA in 29 innings last month after beginning the season with a 6.04 across the first three months. Monday, Nola pitched six innings, and gave up three runs in the first two frames. He has performed like a strong fifth starter at times. But therein lies the problem: Nola is not the Phillies’ fifth starter, but their fourth. And the Phillies would need four starters perhaps in the NLDS, and certainly if they reached the NLCS.

“If you looked at the analytics,” Dombrowski said before a 6-3 win over the Nationals, “(Nola’s) ranked like 75th in major-league baseball of all starting pitchers. … But he has not pitched up to his normal capabilities.”

Then there’s Painter. One week ago, the 23-year-old was coming off one of his best outings in Triple A. Three days later, he prepared for what he thought would be another minor-league start, and said he would appreciate the opportunity to help the big-league team at some point during the season. A call-up wasn’t on Painter’s radar until he was told to pack his bags for Baltimore later that day.

The Phillies have gotten so little out of their fifth starter spot this season. Much of that has been Painter, who produced a 7.06 ERA in his first 14 games this season before a demotion to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. His results there were mixed, including a seven-run start, but he ended his minor-league run on a high note: giving up three runs, walking one and striking out 14 across 11 innings in his final two outings.

The decision to start Painter in the majors going forward, Dombrowski said, is based on those improved results and conversations with Phillies staff members about his progress. The Phillies feel confident in the adjustments Painter made to his delivery and repertoire. There have been positive changes; his fastball appears to have better life and movement, and his command has seemingly improved as a result of his delivery adjustments. But banking on him is also a risk given his poor performance earlier this season, and the sparse starting depth behind him

The Phillies maintain confidence in Painter. But their sustained conversations with other clubs about starting pitching reflect an acknowledgement that their depth could improve. Should any rotation member sustain an injury, the Phillies’ playoff chances — both to make it to October and succeed there — would take a serious hit. It is a risk they must live with.

“The choice came down to, do you end up getting a guy that’s a fifth starter that you don’t think is as good as your guy that you have now and option the guy you think has a better chance to win to help your depth,” Dombrowski said, “or, do (you do) what we’re doing? And we figured we’d do what we’re doing.”

The Phillies say their decision not to add a starter was a vote of confidence in Andrew Painter. (Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

Another not insignificant part of all of this is the price starting pitchers, even rental starting pitchers, commanded at the deadline. There were 15 starting pitchers moved in the days preceding the deadline. Here is a glimpse of the prospect capital some of the rental deals required, via Baseball America’s prospect rankings:

• Kevin Gausman: Ty Southisene (Cubs’ No. 10 prospect), Brett Bateman (unranked)
• Freddy Peralta: Aidan Smith (Rays’ No. 15 prospect), Gary Gill Hill (Rays’ No. 27 prospect), Emilien Pitre (unranked)
• Clay Holmes (traded along with Tyrone Taylor): Jefferson Rojas (Cubs’ No. 2 prospect)
• Robbie Ray: Miguel Mendez (Padres’ No. 10 prospect), Joniel Hernandez (Padres’ No. 21 prospect)

So were the Phillies unwilling or unable to meet the market prices?

“Both, in some cases,” Dombrowski said. “I’d say some clubs felt we were unable to match others, but not in many cases. … The top of our farm system is very well regarded. It’s a little deeper than what people think it is once you start talking to them.”

Still, the lack of strong depth in the Phillies’ system may have lessened their ability to make deals such as those listed above. Prospect tiers differ between farm systems, obviously, and Phillies’ prospects ranked in the double-digits arguably are not as highly regarded as other organizations’ prospects ranked in the teens or twenties. Those are the players typically traded for rentals — not the stars atop a farm system.

Now, hours after the trade deadline, the Phillies must work with what they have. Painter threw a bullpen three hours before first pitch, before the buzzer sounded and the Phillies determined they did not need another starter. Nola pitched until the sky grew a soft pink over the scoreboard. They are both integral to this team’s chances; the other options are limited if there is injury or ineffectiveness. Now, there is nothing to be done but watch it all unfold.

— Matt Gelb contributed to this report.