Edmonton Oilers fans run hot and cold with veteran Jake Walman. In fairness, much of the issue comes from a wide range of performances and a string of injuries. With new coach Mike Babcock arriving this fall, many fans believe Walman will be under extreme pressure this season.
It might be true.
Walman is talented. He can wheel with the puck and is a comfortable fit on the second pair. The offensive flair displayed might be the most impressive in the group behind team leader Evan Bouchard.
So, what is the problem fans see? Consistency. That issue could open up opportunities at a competitive position at this fall’s training camp, especially if Babcock decides to split the No. 1 tandem of Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm.
Foot speed
When he is healthy, Walman can scoot. NHL Edge has his max speed at the 98th percentile last season. That number exceeds fellow left-handers Ekholm (72nd percentile), Ryan Shea (exactly average at 34.75 kph last year) and Shakir Mukhamadullin (34.83 kph, in the same range as Shea). All four men are good skaters, but Walman can fly, and usually beats forecheckers racing in to force a mistake on retrievals. That has high value.
Quality of competition
Last season, the Oilers coaching staff ran Ekholm 481 minutes versus elites, followed by Darnell Nurse (450) and Walman (247) on the third pairing. Ekholm played 182 of those minutes (via Puck IQ) away from captain Connor McDavid, delivering a 48.8 percent Dangerous Fenwick (similar to expected goals) and 56 percent of the goals. In the years Ekholm has played for Edmonton, his “away from McDavid” numbers versus elites shine like diamonds. In 2023-24, he played 139 minutes away from the captain, with a 59.6 Dangerous Fenwick percentage and 57 percent of the goal share. If Babcock does plan to move Ekholm to the second pair, it will be in an effort to improve that unit’s production and should not be considered a demotion of the veteran.
Nurse’s performance away from McDavid saw massive minutes (compared to Ekholm) playing against elites and without help from the top line. His 317 minutes sans McDavid saw the team land at a 44 percent Dangerous Fenwick and a 40 percent goal share. Walman’s “away” totals were 172 minutes, 37 percent Dangerous Fenwick and an overall goal share against elites (44 percent) that both player and team would like to clean up in 2026-27.
In terms of possession stats and goal share, Ekholm was the outlier and the one LH defenceman with the numbers to back up the idea of playing on an improved second pairing.
Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, Shea played 354 minutes against elites, with a 47.5 percent Dangerous Fenwick and a 55 percent goal share. We can conclude Shea was running some good luck considering the gap between expected and actual goal share.
What do the Puck IQ numbers tell us? There is logic in moving Ekholm to the second pair, and away from the McDavid line. The veteran is splendid no matter his linemates, and Babcock may want to take advantage of a little-used roster seam (splitting up the top pair).
That could benefit Walman, but Shea is also a possibility. Mukhamdullin played 200 minutes against elites for the San Jose Sharks but lacks NHL experience in a top-four defensive role.
A new second pair
If the team decides to split Ekholm and Bouchard, the obvious choice for second pairing on the right side is veteran Connor Murphy. A shutdown type, he would likely perform well with Ekholm, who can move the puck and is more mobile.
For the top pairing, Walman is an offensive defenceman with some defensive ability. His skill set is not an ideal match for Bouchard, who is also an offensive player. Bouchard is by far the better outscorer, the main reason he’s a top pair for Babcock. Shea’s skills may be more complementary to the Bouchard style, as he has calm feet and is effective in retrieval and getting the puck to safe places.
Fans should know early in camp which way the wind is blowing.
Babcock structure
Oilers fans will see a more structured defensive style in Edmonton this winter, and that means choosing safe outlets and tighter coverage. The team will make far fewer mistakes in the defensive zone, and should recover the puck more quickly than fans have seen in years. Much of the change in structure will come via the team’s forwards (mostly the centre) being more engaged in pressuring the puck by overloading the zone.
One way to measure defensive play is in expected GA-60. Last season in Edmonton, Murphy (2.47 GA-60) led the Oilers defencemen who spent most of the game playing on the top two pairings at five-on-five (via Puck IQ). Ekholm sat 2.66 GA-60 despite all those minutes against the opposition’s best forwards. It’s reasonable to conclude (based on the expected GA-60 from Natural Stat Trick) the Ekholm-Murphy pair could thrive no matter who coach Babcock sends over the boards in support.
A Walman-Bouchard tandem would probably be looser defensively compared to the Ekholm-Bouchard duo last season. Bouchard’s expected 2.7 GA-60 at five-on-five, added to Walman’s 2.94 GA-60, would leak a little more than the veteran duo. It’s also possible the Walman-Bouchard duo would score more goals and land with a superior five-on-five goal share.
Babcock may not like two puck movers on the same pairing and could opt for Shea-Bouchard. With the Penguins, Shea posted a 2.84 expected GA-60 and is a more consistent defender than Walman. Shea is also effective in moving the puck, and may emerge as a more reliable second-pairing partner than Walman.
What to expect in camp
Babcock will need some time to assess his defencemen and sort out the pairings. Veteran coaches prefer proven players in feature roles, so Mukhamadullin, Ty Emberson and Spencer Stastney would seem destined for third pairing, waivers or the AHL Bakersfield Condors. There has been discussion over the offseason about Josh Brown as a depth option. The veteran could provide a physical edge. However, Babcock will be keen for tight coverage in the defensive zone, and that could exclude Brown from serious consideration.
Fans will probably see Ekholm-Bouchard and Walman-Murphy early in the preseason and regular season. Shea looms large as a better fit for Bouchard should Babcock choose to split the top pairing. Fans expecting the same lines and pairings as one year ago under Kris Knoblauch may be in for a surprise. It’s also likely we see at least one personnel change over the course of the season on defence.
Not every Oilers blueliner entering camp with a secure hold on an NHL job will make it to the end of the year in Edmonton. It’s going to be a fascinating season. Babcock will want players who fit his style.
