Can Erik Spoelstra, Heat surround Giannis, Bam Adebayo with enough 3-point shooting?

At this time of the NBA offseason, most teams typically have their roster work completed and find themselves ready for a new season. This has not been a normal offseason for the Miami Heat.

Miami traded four players and three first-round picks (plus a first-round pick swap and a second-round pick) to pry two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo out of Milwaukee in late June. Then, the Heat attempted to convince four-time NBA MVP LeBron James to return to Miami for his final chapter, only to watch the 41-year-old sign with the Philadelphia 76ers three weeks into July.

Now, with less than two months until the start of training camp, the Heat have three open roster spots and lingering questions left to answer.

Building an above-average offense

Miami’s ceiling and potential for contention in the Eastern Conference will most likely be based upon its defense. That is the easiest part of the team to project reaching an elite level next season, but there are still significant questions on the other end of the floor.

Antetokounmpo’s individual offensive statistics are staggering. Before trying to play through injuries for much of last season, he had three straight years with the Bucks where he averaged at least 30 points and five assists per game, all while shooting better than 55 percent from the field. Per Stathead, he was the first person since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1972-73) and one of only three players in NBA history to do that.

Leading into the 13th game of last season — the one in which he suffered his first serious injury — Antetokounmpo was averaging 32.6 points, 11.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per contest while shooting 63 percent.

To be clear, Antetokounmpo doesn’t just compile big numbers for himself.

The Bucks never had an offensive rating drop below the 83rd percentile with Antetokounmpo on the floor over the last eight seasons, and the offensive rating with him on the floor was above the 90th percentile in three of those eight, per Cleaning the Glass. After being part of the lineup with the NBA’s highest offensive efficiency (min. 200 possessions) in the 2022-23 season, Antetokounmpo has been a part of at least one lineup that has finished the season in the top 11 in offensive efficiency for the last four years. Before last season, the Bucks were top 10 in six of the previous seven seasons.

But Bucks general manager Jon Horst spent each offseason perfecting his approach to building around Antetokounmpo and identifying the players needed to maximize the 10-time All-Star. With Antetokounmpo performing at an MVP level for the last eight seasons, Horst fine-tuned that approach as best he could. Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg don’t have that opportunity in Miami, seeing as they’ve already used most of their assets to acquire Antetokounmpo.

With their remaining three roster spots, the Heat must seek players who accentuate Antetokounmpo’s strengths and take advantage of his gravitational pull.

Improving 3-point shooting

In trying to build a contending roster around Antetokounmpo, the Bucks always tried to stuff their roster with 3-point shooting. After finishing the 2024-25 season first in 3-point percentage, the Bucks ranked second last season and finished top 10 in 3-point percentage in four of Antetokounmpo’s final five seasons in Milwaukee.

While the Heat may look for different types of players and head coach Erik Spoelstra may ask players to do more than just shoot 3s, it would be logical to expect them to look for more 3-point shooting to help Antetokounmpo.

Last season, no one on the Heat took more 3s per game than Tyler Herro (6.7 attempts, 37.8 percent) and Norman Powell (7.1 attempts, 38 percent). Neither player will be with the Heat this upcoming season. Bam Adebayo took the next most but made just 31.8 percent of the 5.1 3s he attempted per game.

After Adebayo, the Heat have five players from last season who took at least two 3s per game: Andrew Wiggins (4.9 attempts, 41.4 percent), Simone Fontecchio (4.7 attempts, 37.5 percent), Nikola Jović (3.6 attempts, 26.9 percent), Davion Mitchell (3.3 attempts, 39.5 percent) and Pelle Larsson (2.7 attempts, 32.3 percent). They also added former Buck Bobby Portis, who might have had the best 3-point shooting season (4.4 attempts, 45.6 percent) of anyone on this year’s Miami roster.

With Antetokounmpo, 3-point looks will likely be more open and less difficult, but his teammates will either need to increase their 3-point volume or raise their shooting percentage to provide spacing. Even if the Heat add more shooting, they’ll need continued internal improvement to maximize this endeavor.

Deciding how to defend

Similar to Antetokounmpo on the offensive end, Adebayo being on the floor has meant good things for the Heat defensively.

Over the last five seasons, Heat lineups including Adebayo have never finished below the 75th percentile leaguewide, according to Cleaning the Glass. Those lineups finished the 2023-24 season in the 89th percentile and the 2021-22 season in the 94th percentile. Last season was the first time the Heat finished outside of the top 10 in defensive rating since the 2014-15 campaign.

With Spoelstra at the helm and Adebayo on the floor, the Heat have traditionally been a great defensive team.

Antetokounmpo’s defensive effort has waned over the years due to his increased offensive duties, but his defensive skill set remains unquestioned. He has the quickness, strength and intelligence to guard multiple positions and make a significant impact. Wiggins has great size and capably defends big wings while also being an intelligent team defender. Mitchell is one of the NBA’s most annoying on-ball defenders against point guards.

With those four, the Heat have the basis for a group that should finish the season in the top 10, if not the top five, of defensive rating. For Miami to get the most out of its most talented defensive players, Spoelstra will have to decide exactly how to deploy them.

Over the last five seasons, the crux of Miami’s strong defensive efforts has been a low free-throw rate, strong defensive rebounding and a limit on shots allowed at the rim. By not sending teams to the free-throw line at a high rate, limiting second-chance opportunities and not letting teams get all the way to the rim, the Heat have limited opponents’ access to the easiest points.

They’ve done all of that while also being one of the most physical teams in the NBA and utilizing more versatile schemes than just about anyone in the league. Per a league source with Second Spectrum access, Miami switched on 38 percent of the pick-and-rolls they defended last season, which ranked third behind the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Lakers. Additionally, the Heat were top five in switch frequency in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. Spoelstra also has been one of the league’s most prominent adopters of zone defense strategies.

In the end, the Heat have talented defenders, and they’re coached by one of the most creative defensive minds in the NBA. They will likely be one of the best defensive teams next season; it’s just a matter of how Spoelstra wants to use his personnel to get that done.