Sports
2026 NFC South preview, offseason recap for Panthers, Buccaneers, Falcons & Saints
By the middle of last season, it looked clear that the Buccaneers would win their fifth straight division title. Tampa Bay entered its bye at 6-2, with wins over teams such as the Seahawks and 49ers. Playoffs seemed inevitable.
Then the Bucs collapsed, losing games to each of its division rivals. This is how the NFC South finished from Weeks 10 to 18:
- Saints: 5-3
- Falcons: 5-4
- Panthers: 3-5
- Buccaneers: 2-7
The Panthers took the playoff spot with an 8-9 record, with a tiebreak over matching Tampa Bay and Atlanta. Who wins it this year?
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Carolina Panthers
(8-9, lost in wild-card round)
Headline: Signing star defenders. The Panthers added our Nos. 2 and 3 free agents of 2026, edge Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd. This came after Carolina’s defense improved last season, finishing 15th in points against and 16th in yards against (it ranked last in both categories in 2024).
Subtle: Bryce Young’s protection. All reports suggest Young is having the best offseason of his career, looking more confident and composed in Dave Canales’ offense. I’m skeptical he builds off a promising 2025 without either starting tackle. Left tackle Ikem Ekwonu tore his patellar tendon in January and might not be back until late this season. Right tackle Taylor Moton is sidelined indefinitely with blood clots. That, plus a new starting center, has the strength of Young’s line uncertain.
Question: Receivers good enough? The Panthers offense was well below average in 2025, ranking 27th in both total yards and points. Having one of the league’s weaker receiving cores is a big part of the reason why. And it doesn’t look much better, having already lost third-round rookie Chris Brazzell to a season-ending knee injury.
Projection: 7-10. This team improved by three wins in each of Canales’ first two seasons and nearly upset the Rams in the playoffs. The Panthers had an impressive draft. I just don’t see this offense improving on last year’s 19 points per game (27th) given the offensive line shuffle and brutal injuries. A first-place schedule (third-toughest) doesn’t help.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(8-9 in 2025)
Headline: Vita Vea demands trade. The Pro Bowl defensive tackle is one of the game’s elite defenders. He also wants a new contract. “I just don’t see it ending in anything but a trade at this point,” said his agent, which contrasts with GM Jason Licht telling reporters that he has “no plans on trading Vita.” Hmm.
Subtle: Healthy, angry Baker Mayfield. The late-season collapse is partially due to Mayfield’s shoulder injury, one of many injuries he dealt with. He played through it but wasn’t the same (underlying stats agree, with his QB rating dropping from 13th to 21st after the injury). Entering a pivotal contract year, Mayfield reportedly feels great and is motivated to perform.
Question: What happened to the defense? Defensive-minded head coach Todd Bowles oversees a unit in decline: The Bucs were seventh in points allowed in 2023, 16th in 2024 and dropped to 20th last season. The second half of last year was particularly rough, with Tampa Bay finishing 28th in total EPA while allowing 25.9 points per game from Week 10 on.
Projection: 8-9. The defense was significantly revamped in the draft and free agency. If things are sorted positively with Vea, this defense should be back among the league’s better units. But a tougher schedule and departures of leaders such as WR Mike Evans and LB Lavonte David make me hesitate. The matchup against the Bengals in Week 1 will be telling.
Atlanta Falcons
(8-9 in 2025)
Headline: Kevin Stefanski hired as head coach. It was a no-brainer to pair a coach who wants to lean on a run game with the game’s best running back and an elite offensive line. Expect plenty of Bijan Robinson and play-action passing, which should bode well for Drake London and Kyle Pitts. (Under Stefanski, Cleveland was 11th in run rate and sixth in play-action dropback rate on traditional run downs.)
Subtle: Lost pass rushers. This group was a strength last season, setting a franchise record with 57 sacks. Players responsible for 38 of those might be gone this year. Jalon Walker’s torn ACL was the latest amid a series of departures that could also also include James Pearce Jr., if he’s suspended after an offseason arrest. (Our Josh Kendall predicts Pearce is out for least eight games.)
Question: Who is the quarterback? Michael Penix Jr. showed promise late in 2024 but went 3-6 last season before suffering his fifth major season-ending injury. Tua Tagovailoa’s injury history isn’t much better. Both are well suited for Stefanski’s anticipation-based passing game, though Penix has a stronger arm and higher upside. Where do things stand? It’s a mess.
Projection: 6-11. Atlanta has failed to finish above .500 for eight straight seasons. As much as I like Stefanski, his schemes won’t be enough to help a team with big questions at key positions.
New Orleans Saints
(6-11 in 2025)
Headline: Adding Travis Etienne Jr. After finishing 31st both in yards per attempt and runs of 10-plus yards, the Saints addressed a poor run game by signing Etienne to a reasonable three-year deal averaging $12 million per year. Behind an above-average offensive line, Etienne should easily improve a bottom-five rushing attack.
Subtle: Continuity. New Orleans began last season 1-8 before a strong finish. An obvious reason is QB Tyler Shough, who went 5-4 after being named the Saints starter. Another is Brandon Staley’s defense, which clamped down across the final eight games. Were both the result of an easy late-season schedule, or is this team as promising as they seemed?
Question: A Saints defense without LB Demario Davis? It’s been almost a decade since we’ve seen Davis anywhere but the middle of this defense, where he’s started in 131 of 133 regular-season games since arriving in 2018. (He’s with the Jets now.) Kaden Elliss is a serviceable replacement and joins a defense that improved dramatically in the second half of last season, going from allowing 27 points per game to 17.5 after Week 9.
Projection: 9-8. The Saints have the league’s second-easiest schedule based on opponent win projections and should build on the late-season surge, so long as Shough takes a next step. It’s not pretty, but this might be enough to win this division.
Extra Points
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