NASCAR Cup Series at Richmond Q&A, odds: Can Austin Dillon make it a 3-peat in Virginia?

There are three more races until the NASCAR Cup Series Chase starts. Drivers are jockeying for position with just a few more tries to make the playoff field.

One of those drivers on the outside, looking in is Austin Dillon. Dillon has won at this weekend’s venue, Richmond Raceway, the last two years and is only 27th in the standings. Points leader Denny Hamlin is the betting favorite to win the Cook Out 400, which takes place Saturday.

For more on what to watch for this weekend, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi discuss the biggest storylines and make predictions about the upcoming race.

Cook Out 400 odds

Let’s start with the obvious: Austin Dillon has won here the last two years, but doesn’t have any top-five finishes this season. Is he a contender for this race?

Jeff: I’m seeing Dillon tied for only the seventh-best odds, which I’m a bit surprised by. Say what you want about the highly controversial way he won the 2024 Richmond race, but Dillon has also led the most combined laps at Richmond for the last two races. Last year, he pretty much dominated the final stage of the race and won by 2.5 seconds. And you might say, “Yeah, but he’s having a tough season this year and has a 21.5 average finish.” OK, but last year his average finish was 20.8 and the year before it was 22.6, and he won Richmond in both of those years. Clearly, the team has something they feel that works for Dillon there and he was able to come back and replicate it last season. Does that mean he’ll win again? Not necessarily; that would be a pretty tall order. But I’d definitely put him among the favorites.

Jordan: Based on what Dillon has done at Richmond the past two years, he absolutely has to be considered a favorite to win — regardless of how he’s performed this season. Adding credence to the expectation he will be fast this weekend is how well Dillon ran last week at Iowa, a track with similar characteristics to Richmond. The Richard Childress Racing driver qualified well (seventh), ran near the front throughout the race and finished 10th. At a minimum, the expectation is for Dillon to finish inside the top 10 on Saturday night.

This track is three-quarters of a mile and last week’s race in Iowa also featured a short track at less than a mile (Iowa is 7/8 of a mile). Should we expect the same drivers and cars that contended last week to be strong again this week?

Jeff: Depending who you talk to, Richmond is either fairly similar or a distant cousin. But either way, that’s not much of a wide range. The concepts are definitely in the same ballpark when it comes to being good at those tracks, so I would indeed expect a similar group to be strong. It’s not like these races are a month apart, either; in other words, there’s not much time to find something different or come up with a totally new short track setup. So I’d think the Penske Fords will look good again, the Toyotas will have their usual speed if they figure out their brake issues and then we’ll have to see where that leaves Hendrick Motorsports, which only has won three of the last 32 races at Richmond.

Jordan: This has the feel of a race to be settled between Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing, even if Dillon may end up playing the role of spoiler like he’s done the past two years. One driver to particularly watch is Penske’s Joey Logano, who has really started to hit his stride in recent weeks with a win at North Wilkesboro, a third at Indianapolis and strong run at Iowa that was only waylaid by an issue on pit road. This strong stretch has vaulted Logano above the Chase cut line, actually fairly comfortably, and Richmond offers him a good chance to further solidify his position.

With three races until the Chase starts, who are the drivers you’re watching for that really need a good result this weekend?

Jeff: Austin Cindric has got to try and rebound from Iowa and take advantage of his Team Penske cars’ speed and ability at short tracks. I’m still not sure what exactly went wrong for the No. 2 team last week, but they were out to lunch while the other Penske cars (and affiliate Wood Brothers Racing) were all strong. Cindric is on the cut line and should make the Chase, but he’s going to have to produce some top-15 finishes in the next two weeks to set himself up well for the regular season finale at Daytona. Similarly, short track ace Ryan Preece has got to find something to score a bunch of points at Richmond. If he loses ground to Cindric and Shane van Gisbergen avoids disaster, time may suddenly be running out for Preece to score the Chase berth that once seemed inevitable.

Jordan: RFK Racing needs to be better than it showed at Iowa. Short tracks are supposed to be the team’s strong suit and this stretch of races that wraps up the regular season seemed to set up well for the team’s two drivers, Preece and Brad Keselowski, on the Chase bubble. And yet Iowa was a struggle for both, which doesn’t bode well for this week at Richmond and next week at New Hampshire. If the team doesn’t make some considerable improvements, neither will qualify for the Chase.

Predictions time: Pick your winner.

Jeff: The Team Penske cars have been rolling on short tracks lately, and this could be another weekend where Logano continues his sudden resurgence. He’s coming off the North Wilkesboro win and looked fast again last week, and I could see Logano in victory lane again if those Penske Fords have similar speed. I also want to take a moment to mention Kyle Busch here; for years, Richmond was one of Busch’s playgrounds and he still had the best stats of any active driver there (six wins, 28 top-10s, 7.8 average finish) at the time of his death in May. It’s another gut punch to know he won’t be out there on the track Saturday night, especially with his former Richard Childress Racing teammate Austin Dillon expected to contend.

Jordan: Christopher Bell is due to win. Overdue, actually, as he has seven (!) runner-up finishes this season. And Richmond, long one of Joe Gibbs Racing’s best tracks, is a great place for him to score his first win of the season.

Who are some longshots who could be in contention?

Jeff: I’m surprised to see Preece listed as such a longshot (+6000). He won the Richmond pole position just last year and led 60 laps, then won the Clash on a short track earlier this season. No, RFK Racing isn’t where it wants to be right now and Preece had a disappointing weekend at Iowa Speedway. But is it that far-fetched to think he could hit on something? For that big of a longshot number, it’s worth a shot. Similarly, Josh Berry isn’t quite as much of an underdog (+4500) but he’s coming off a top-five finish at Iowa and you know he’ll be solid at Richmond. If nothing else, getting big plus money on Berry to finish in the top five at Richmond (+550) would look tempting to me if I were a bettor.

Jordan: Considering Bubba Wallace led a race-high 123 laps here a year ago and last week had a fast car at Iowa before a penalty set him back, it isn’t unreasonable to think he should be among the favorites to win Saturday night. Yet, some oddsmakers have Wallace listed at +1600, which seems high and makes him a good sleeper pick.