Premier League hope-o-meter: Leeds dream big, Liverpool the least happy of the optimists

Happy new season. Or perhaps that should be hopey new season! The Premier League is back and, traipsing in its wake — bleary, unshaven, forever perplexed — comes The Athletic’s annual, non-scientific gauge of supporter mood.

Each year, we ask our subscribers a simple question about how they are feeling about the big kick-off. Then, our data boffins crunch the numbers and produce a table that muggins here is asked (forced) to interpret as an exercise in gentle mockery and…

Whoa, wait. Why is everybody grinning?

But first, the headlines. Leeds United have the most hopeful fans in the land, with a whopping 99 per cent of our respondents expressing optimism about the prospects for Daniel Farke and his team. Followers of Aston Villa, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur lead the chasing pack, while Liverpool are our least upbeat supporters. Their chief rivals in the misery stakes are Fulham, Everton and Newcastle United.

We will get into the whys and wherefores and the what-the-f***s is going on at Elland Road shortly, but there is also a bigger picture here. Something peculiar is afoot. Granted, this is August, granted everybody should be feeling a little bit bullish, and granted the sun has been shining, but the consequence of all that sunshine is the entire country literally being on fire and England’s green and pleasant land being left scorched and brown and barren.

My goodness, look at how happily hopeful you all are! Fans of the top-15 clubs in our table are 82 per cent optimistic or above, which is uncharted territory for this little survey of ours. By contrast, take a look at the results from a year ago, when everybody was far more sombre and sensible.

Retreat 12 months into the past and only nine sets of fans counted themselves 80 per cent optimistic or above, while the other end of the table was a bleak, dark wasteland. After the contentious departure of Alexander Isak to Liverpool, Newcastle were bottom with only 19 per cent of their supporters describing themselves as optimistic. Wolverhampton Wanderers were on 32 per cent and West Ham United 39.

Hats off, by the way, to all three, and b****r off to a pair of them. Newcastle’s league season was a slog and they finished 12th. Wolves and West Ham were relegated. Here, therefore, was a valuable lesson: pessimism pays. If you suspect that things will turn out to be s*** and they do, indeed, turn out to be s***, then at least you can’t be disappointed when s*** happens. And if, by some starry miracle, things go better, then hooray! How nice!

But even this year’s gloomiest, most disconsolate depressives are positively Panglossian compared to previous instalments. Every single set of supporters is more optimistic than pessimistic, which just feels wrong. Three years ago, only eight per cent of West Ham fans had a positive mindset, Sheffield United were on 17 per cent and Everton 26. The season before, Bournemouth were bottom with 27 per cent. Genuine, substantive despair.

Being happy is more pleasant than being sad, of course, except the effect here is akin to that movie Smile, in which Laura, the protagonist, believes she is being hounded by something that nobody else can see that inhabits the form of disturbing, smiling people and everybody thinks she’s crazy until the moment when, to quote Wikipedia, the “Entity corners her and rips its skin off to reveal its true form: a skinless, semi-humanoid monstrosity with multiple sets of smiling jaws”.

Don’t know about you, but I really hate it when that happens.

So what gives with all the gleaming gnashers? Is it connected to the shock of the new and the fact that nine clubs begin this season with new permanent managers, a record for the division, so even where there is a frisson of uncertainty, it is balanced by freshness? Is it collective madness?

We asked The Athletic’s crack team of editors and writers to choose any five words to sum up where things stand for the clubs they cover. We also forgot to switch off comments when readers completed their surveys — a mistake I shall not be repeating on this piece, don’t you worry! — so here is a pithy, amusing, insightful or most-liked comment for each club, too, enhanced with a light sprinkling of snarkiness, split into sections corresponding to an actual Premier League table.

Leeds United

Beren Cross: Prove second-season syndrome’s a myth.

Anonymous: Feeling very optimistic. Extended Ethan Ampadu. Picked up Harry Wilson, Tarik Muharemovic and James Trafford. Need a few more pieces, especially for depth/cover, but the foundation is getting strong!

Some popular stereotypes about Yorkshire and its people: northern, dour, straight-talking, no-nonsense, stingy. Stereotypes are often misleading: Leeds have just spent £40million ($54m) on a goalkeeper, and everybody’s giddy. This is end-of-days stuff.

Aston Villa

Jacob Tanswell: We need you, Unai Emery

Emery celebrates winning the Europa League last season (Photo: Neville Williams/Aston Villa FC via Getty Images)

Matt E: What’s the point in feeling anything other than optimistic?!

Two answers, Matt. 1. Because nothing good ever happens, ever. 2. Squad cost ratio (SCR).

Nottingham Forest

Paul Taylor: Another new era? Cautious optimism.

Urs A: We’ll struggle badly… and only win the league by five points instead of by March. You bloody Reds.

If you are going to do hope, then at least do it properly like Urs, with absolute swivel-eyed delusion.

Brentford

Jay Harris: Cup run and Europe, please.

Jacob S. I’m feeling like there will be about five articles centred on Brentford this season.

I’m feeling like this certainly isn’t one of them.

Chelsea

Liam Twomey: Vamos, Xabi Alonso, or else.

Payden M: Feeling great! We are going to score a ton of goals between Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, and Morgan Rogers. The only question is how many we are going to let in!

Is it just me, or is this slightly menacing from Liam, or Mr Twomey, as we should probably refer to him from now on?

Tottenham Hotspur

Jay Harris: Can (Roberto) De Zerbi’s record signings deliver?

Anonymous: Feeling confident that we’ll stay up.

Thank you, Anonymous. That’s much more like it.

Roberto De Zerbi kept Tottenham up last season (Saeed Khan/AFP via Getty Images)

Sunderland

Philip Buckingham: Bring on Europa League fun.

Cmjmarshall: The most important thing is that we have held on to every important member of the squad. If that remains the case, we should be in good shape.

The ultimate trend-buckers. Promoted last year, Sunderland comprehensively refigured their squad and didn’t just stay up — they thrived, qualifying for Europe for only the second time in their history and beating Newcastle twice along the way. Safe to say, their optimism is merited, and we’re all absolutely delighted for them, obviously. Yes. Delighted. Truly delighted. Yes.

Bournemouth

Jacob Tanswell: (Andoni) Iraola gone, but Europe beckons.

Coach C: Up the Cherries!

Being well-run and successful and cheerful and consistently over-achieving really doesn’t help this kind of article. Up yours, Cherries, more like.

Arsenal

Art de Roche: Can you finally retain it?

Sickson E: Nigerian CUSTOMS has LAUNCHED an online auction of SEIZED ITEMS, giving everyone in AFRICA / NIGERIANS the CHANCE to own ANY ITEMS at an affordable price.
 INTERESTED buyers should: CONTACT the state auctioneer.

Hmm. Is this a kind of code? Is it something to do with set pieces?

Manchester United

Carl Anka: Top four and a trophy.

Stuart L: Can’t answer a binary question when the situation is more nuanced. Survey needs a third option at least. I would wager my mortgage that the majority of fans would pick the middle option — “depends on transfers over the next two weeks”

Wow, sorry for breathing, Stuart! It’s not as if I spend my time going to other people’s places of work and telling them how useless they are… oh wait, that’s exactly what I do! Apologies.

Hull City

Philip Buckingham: No-hopers daring to dream. Again.

Ben A: Personally treating it as a holiday.

Good idea, Ben. Welcome to your one-star hotel in that bit of Spain surrounded by wildfires and where the locals are protesting against the influx of tourists. Enjoy your stay!

Coventry City

Tom Burrows: 25 years later, we’re back

Paul R: I’m optimistically terrified! Could stay up, probably will go down. We just need to embrace it and enjoy the ride!

I adore the notion of being optimistically terrified and have been desperately trying to think of a real-life example where it might apply.

PILOT: “We are about to crash-land, please adopt the brace position.”

PASSENGER: “Wooooo, this is just like a roller-coasterAAAAAAAAAAARGH!”

Ipswich Town

Ali Rampling: Realistic. Simply survival would do.

Rpet13: Ipswich will NOT be relegated after this season.

Could be relegated during this season though, couldn’t they, Rpet? Eh? Eh?

Manchester City

Sam Lee: Uncertain, hopeful, fearful, exciting, fearsome.

Neil G: As post-best-ever-manager vibes go, really pretty positive.

Yeah, fascinating. City’s less noisy neighbours could spin a yarn or two about how the end of an empire can be a traumatic business.

Will Enzo Maresca be battling Mikel Arteta for the title? (David Price/Arsenal FC via Getty Images)

Crystal Palace

Max Matthews: Twice-in-a-lifetime European tour; cautiously optimistic.

Roger G: Last year, I said that having watched Palace for 62 years before finally triumphing at Wembley, I didn’t care what happened. To end the season with another fabulous trophy (and a wonderful trip to Leipzig with sons and grandsons) was beyond my wildest expectations. So again I say, “I don’t care how this season goes, I am still in wonderland!”

Roger, this is beautiful. Curse you.

But Max is really pushing the five-word limit here, the journalistic equivalent of selling a hotel to yourself or offloading your women’s team to somebody else to ensure financial compliance. We see you, Max. Still, you’ve got away with it, haven’t you? Everybody else does.

Brighton & Hove Albion

Andy Naylor: New for old. Will it work?

Anonymous F: Another season with a squad list that is unrecognisable.

This is six words, Andy. Yellow card.

Brighton are the original shiny, happy, skinless, semi-humanoid monstrosity people. Whatever they do, whatever is done to them, they find a way of being absolutely fine and smiley. So sinister.

Newcastle United

Eddie Howe has gone, so what will Newcastle 2.0 achieve? (Owen Humphreys/PA Images via Getty Images)

Chris Waugh: Newcastle 2.0: Into the unknown.

Graeme L: We’re winning the lot. Howay the lads.

O A: We look s*** and won’t finish higher than 15th.

I’m pretty sure Graeme is not entirely serious, but I’m flouting convention with two reader comments instead of one because they were next to one another and made me laugh and accurately sum up the emotional extremities of Tyneside. Newcastle have lost most of their touchstones, although their touchstone only got them to 12th last season. Will they be good, will they be bad, will they be bonkers, or will it be all three?

Everton

Patrick Boyland: Can (David) Moyes earn new deal?

Tom C: Someone got lost visiting my friend in Maine back in the day. They pulled over and asked a local how to get there. “No f****** clue, guy.” That’s how I’m feeling. Most seasons.

Love this. I’m going to start calling people “guy” more. So cool. Unless they’re called Guy, because that would be confusing.

Fulham

John Stanton: Spanish, gamble, young, potential, rebuild.

Simon L: Lots of unknowns. New manager and his fledglings are unknown quantities to the Premier League. If it all works out, then we could be pushing for Europe. If it doesn’t, I don’t know if they have the mentality to fight a relegation scrap.

Simon is unwittingly paraphrasing Donald Rumsfeld, the late former United States defence secretary, who famously said the following: “There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

Was Rumsfeld somehow peering into the future and effectively previewing Fulham’s season? Who knows. But probably not.

Liverpool

Andrew Jones: New coach, same squad issues

Patrik H. Optimistic about Iraola, but the glaring gaps in an unbalanced squad make my overall feeling pessimistic. We’re not competing for the title with this squad, and that should be the aim.

Liverpool were second in our hope-o-meter last season and are bottom now. On the one hand, this should inform us all about the futility of hope, but on the other, their fans are still more optimistic than not.

I don’t get it, it’s an unknown unknown and I don’t understand it. It’s the hope that kills you, so they say, and here it comes now, ripping off its skin, this smiling monstrosity with multiple sets of smiling jaws. Good luck to you. I’m out.