Dodgers mailbag, Part 1: Predicting roster expansion candidates, postseason rotation

We blinked, and it’s almost September. You know what that means for the Los Angeles Dodgers — it’s go time.

Their rotation of aces is nearly back to full form, with Shohei Ohtani expected to return to the mound as early as Sunday. Will Smith should be back next week. There are questions about how Andy Pages (hand fracture) will heal and whether Edwin Díaz (neck inflammation) can regain a semblance of his form after a dreadful month. Still, the Dodgers know the upcoming month is about locking down a first-round bye and prepping their roster for the postseason.

With MLB rosters expanding Sept. 1, we’re about to see the first steps of that process. You had questions, and we’ve done our best to answer. Here’s our subscriber mailbag, with Part 2 coming Friday.

Editor’s note: Questions have been edited for length and clarity

How will the star rotation with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal and Shohei Ohtani work to get the Dodgers to a third straight World Series title? — Brian P.

Where does Glasnow fit into the playoff pitching plan? — thonnef 

Barring health, the Dodgers already know which starters they’ll ride into October. What they have not finalized (partly because both Glasnow and Ohtani are freshly on the mend) is the order and how they’ll be used.

Part of the decision is matchup-based and will depend on manager Dave Roberts’ preference to split starters by their handedness. That’s something we won’t know until just before the playoffs. If the postseason started today, it would be a safe bet to tab Yamamoto, the 2025 World Series MVP, as the Game 1 starter, with a variation of Snell and Skubal following. The biggest question heading into September is Ohtani: How much can the Dodgers ramp him up? Will he be an option as a full-fledged starter for the entire postseason?

As projected, the Dodgers believe he could be. Knee inflammation has prevented Ohtani from pitching since July 3, but he’s expected to return to the mound within the next few days — perhaps as early as Sunday’s series finale against the Detroit Tigers. If he does start Sunday, that would put him in a position to make five starts before the regular season concludes. In theory, that’s plenty of time to stretch him out to five innings or a 75-pitch threshold.

The Dodgers plan to stretch Ohtani similar to how they did last season when he was coming back from elbow surgery, but not as deliberately. Roberts said the club will be a “bit more aggressive” with his rollout. As always, health is the priority, but if Ohtani’s September goes according to the Dodgers’ plan, they’ll have their two-way star at full strength on the mound come the postseason.

That makes Glasnow fascinating to watch over the final month of the regular season. In his start Tuesday, his first since May 6, Glasnow showed some early rust against the Atlanta Braves but logged five innings of three-run ball with seven strikeouts. He’s slated for five more starts, with the Dodgers sticking to their six-man rotation. Since the Dodgers will not need five starters in the playoffs, the most logical place for Glasnow is to piggyback Ohtani, which Glasnow can do regardless of how much or how little Ohtani is stretched out. This might be the optimal plan for Los Angeles: If a combination of Ohtani and Glasnow can eat at least seven innings, it also buys most of the bullpen another day of recovery.

Assuming Yamamoto, Snell, Skubal, Ohtani and Glasnow are your starters for the postseason. Who do you think makes the bullpen? — Byron B.

Even if Glasnow is relegated to the bullpen, the Dodgers will still take eight additional relievers, thanks to the extra pitcher they’re afforded due to Ohtani’s status as a two-way player.

We are well-versed in the Dodgers’ October pitching blueprint by now. Andrew Friedman will take his best 14 pitchers and assign roles from there. Pitchers that have been starters for most of the season, such as Roki Sasaki and Justin Wrobleski, will go to the bullpen. That we haven’t talked about Sasaki — who, coming into play Wednesday, held a 2.31 ERA over his six second-half starts — is a testament to the strength of the projected playoff rotation. Sasaki will miss at least two weeks due to a blister that landed him on the 15-day IL in Wednesday’s 6-5 loss, but the blister isn’t expected to impact his role come October.

Edwin Díaz will return in early September (more on him later). Tanner Scott, Alex Vesia and Jack Dreyer have held it down from the left side all year long (Scott’s woes on the current road trip aside). They’ll make for a strong group of southpaws in leverage innings, along with Wrobleski, whose ability to go multiple innings makes him even more valuable.

The right side is harder to predict. With Glasnow, Sasaki and Díaz accounted for, that leaves two spots for Brock Stewart, Evan Phillips, Edgardo Henriquez, and a (health pending) Blake Treinen. Henriquez has been the most consistent of the four and perhaps one of the most underrated Dodgers this year. Phillips has been trending in the right direction after a few rough first appearances back from Tommy John.

Health and September performances will drive these decisions. A name worth monitoring: left-hander Kris Bubic, whom the Dodgers traded for at the deadline on the off-chance he’d be able to help their bullpen in the playoffs. Bubic has spent most of the year injured but could embark on a rehab assignment as early as next week.

Dave Roberts seems to have abruptly shifted his perspective on how to help Edwin Díaz. What precipitated this change in Roberts’ thinking? — Jay O.

It was fair to expect some rust from Díaz after his April elbow surgery, but certainly not the tune of a 12.91 ERA in his nine appearances since his return. Yet Roberts kept running Díaz out for the ninth, even when it was clear the All-Star closer wasn’t right.

Part of that was the schedule. Several key relievers were on fumes, and Roberts was trying to keep his bullpen as available as possible. Fans don’t want to hear it — and the team will never publicly admit it — but Los Angeles can burn a few regular-season games to be better positioned for October. That’s true even if it costs them a win on that specific night. The Dodgers are paying Díaz $69 million to close games. They were OK affording him as much opportunity as possible in August to find his form. Once September hits, though, it’s all about riding the hot hand.

That’s why you’ll still see Scott (2.36 ERA and team-leading 19 saves) in the closer’s role once Díaz returns off the 15-day IL. That stint is expected to be around the minimum, and Díaz is on the road trip with the team. Once he’s activated, however, he’ll be placed in lower-leverage situations to work on the mechanical changes related to the significantly lower arm angle he’s sported this year without the worry of blowing a game.

In a perfect world, Díaz could use September to regain his arm slot, his confidence and the team’s trust for the ninth inning. Roberts’ thinking now is based somewhat on rosters expanding, plus an added man in the bullpen, thanks to Ohtani’s restored two-way status. More so, it’s crunch time for the Dodgers. Díaz has had plenty of opportunity to catch up.

Everyone’s talking about the rotation, but I’m still freaking out about Andy Pages and his injury. Beyond bringing back Will Smith and just working through it in general, what is the team doing to rekindle the bats? And how confident are they in an outfield without Pages? — Marcelo T. 

It will be difficult to replace Pages’ range in center field, which ranks in the 95th percentile of eligible MLB outfielders this year, but you’re right to point out the concern over losing his bat. As Fabian Ardaya noted in a recent column, Pages, with his .797 OPS (and a .906 OPS vs lefties), has been the team’s most consistent right-handed hitter. The rest of the Dodgers’ righty bats have combined for a .702 OPS with a .704 mark against left-handers.

Having Will Smith back will help, and Alek Thomas has filled in well for Pages, but the Dodgers need better production from Mookie Betts. The same can be said for Teoscar Hernández, whose playing time could be cut if he doesn’t step it up. The good news is the Dodgers believe Pages will return in time for the postseason. The bad news? Given his injury (hand fracture), there’s no telling what his bat will look like if he does come back.

For now, Thomas will get most of the reps in center field. The onus is on Hernández to find some slug. If not, we could be having a conversation regarding a potential James Tibbs III promotion. He is the likeliest outfield prospect to get the call-up should the Dodgers go that route.

With Will Smith coming back, the Dodgers aren’t going to hold on to two catchers. So who is the odd man out? Ben Rortvedt or Hunter Feduccia? — O. Ogilthorpe

Will Smith started his rehab assignment Tuesday with Triple-A Oklahoma City and is on track to return to the Dodgers on Sept. 1, MLB’s roster-expansion date. Smith will gradually work up to catching every day, meaning the backup catcher will remain a prevalent role. Still, it’s unlikely the Dodgers carry three catchers, especially with Dalton Rushing trending to return in early September. However, because of his minor UCL tear, Rushing will be limited to what he can do on the field. The Dodgers are planning for Rushing as a left-handed bat off the bench.

Rortvedt doesn’t have options remaining; Feduccia does. But given the offensive production Feduccia has provided in his month back with the Dodgers, he’s the likelier of the two to stay.