Manchester City analysis after Champions League draw: No Real Madrid but Barcelona and PSG await

Manchester City will face Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona in the league phase of this season’s Champions League as the Enzo Maresca era gets into full swing.

City fans will be looking forward to rare trips to Barcelona, Porto and Lens, as well as the more familiar destination of Leipzig, where they have travelled three times in the past five years. They have not been to Barca’s Camp Nou for a non-friendly match since 2016, Porto since the Champions League final there against Chelsea in 2021, and have never faced Lens.

There will be another return to the Etihad Stadium for Kevin De Bruyne with Napoli, the second season in a row that that fixture will take place, and the standout home fixture will be when back-to-back European champions PSG come to town.

City’s league phase fixtures

*Dates of matches to be confirmed in the coming days

Which game most excites you?

Barcelona away, of course! Other than a pre-season friendly in August 2022, City have not been there since Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge — which is a nice little parallel with this being Maresca’s debut year — and the opportunity to play at a cathedral of football like Camp Nou is always exciting.

The Catalans’ front-foot style of play, individual quality and high line will pose City plenty of problems, but also provide plenty of opportunities, and do not forget that Maresca’s Chelsea beat them 3-0 in this competition as recently as December, albeit that match was at Stamford Bridge.

Both teams will want to play their game and it could be a classic, with Rodri also in line to face the club he’s just left.

Which match worries you?

Any encounter with PSG would have to be considered a major test, given their current supremacy in the European game.

Maresca highlighted PSG as being so strong because of their players’ ability to dribble past their individual opponent in every area of the pitch, and even if this fixture is in Manchester, it will certainly not be easy.

The Barca trip could be an all-timer in the entertainment stakes but does pose plenty of danger, of course.

What is Maresca’s biggest issue to confront in the tournament?

Getting knocked out of the Champions League by Real Madrid has become a bit of an issue for City, considering it has happened in each of the past three seasons.

The fact that so much has changed in such a short space of time, considering Guardiola’s departure as well as the exits of key players in Bernardo Silva and John Stones means there are going to be issues that apply across the board, not just in Europe, and given the quality of teams in the Premier League these days, any tactical flaws are just as likely to be exposed at home as in Europe.

Broadly speaking though, it is about time that City had a proper go at the Champions League again, having flattered to deceive since they won it in 2023.

City were knocked out of the competition by Madrid in the round of 16 last season (Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images)

Who could be a breakthrough talent?

Because most of City’s players are very well known already, the answer could be Allan, who is set to join from Palmeiras of Sao Paulo. On the face of it, the 22-year-old might not be the most exciting arrival into European football from Brazil, with four goals and three assists this season and no international appearances at any age-group level, but he is a dazzling dribbler and could catch the eye if given a run of games in this competition, especially as Maresca’s teams are set up to get the best out of wingers.

Other players will shine brighter, no doubt, but Allan, assuming the deal goes through, could reach new audiences after his somewhat surprising move to the Premier League.

Which club do City most want to avoid in the latter stages?

It would have to be Madrid, considering the record over the years.

Despite the grim outlook, City have played very well in many of the games when they have lost to or been eliminated by the Spanish giants, like the semi-final second leg in 2022 when they were 1-0 up on the night at the Bernabeu (and 5-3 on aggregate) in the 90th minute but were beaten 3-1 after extra time, or the 4-4 quarter-final two years later where they went out on penalties.

It looked like Guardiola felt that Madrid were there for the taking in last season’s round of 16 as he tried to blow them out of the water with an attacking line-up but saw it backfire with a 3-0 first-leg defeat that made the return at home a lost cause.

The moral of the story is that while City delivered one of the all-time great team performances against Madrid in the 2022-23 semis, when they beat them 4-0 in the second leg at the Etihad, they generally get knocked out no matter how good they have been, so you would be forgiven for wanting to avoid them again.

Oh, and also PSG, for obvious reasons.

What would be considered a successful finish?

An unlucky quarter-final defeat could be seen as a decent return, but that would be a bare minimum. It will be difficult, because City have overhauled their squad so much and have a new manager bedding in, so there are a lot of things that need to come together for them to really thrive at the top level, but as long as they get their transfer business right over the next few days, they should be packed with talent.

Premier League teams, other than City, did well — up until a point — in Europe last season, and maybe a dynamic, talented side could do some damage.

Prediction time… how far will City get?

Given the turnover in the squad, maybe the last eight is most realistic.

This new-look league phase is tough to get out of, and any teething problems in the early part of the season could lead to missing the top eight and settling for a place in the play-offs; and they can be tricky, too — as City discovered two seasons ago when they ended up playing defending champions Madrid at that stage.

So progressing from the league phase and then getting past that first knockout round, if they have to play in it, would be a good start. Then we will see how things go.