The Expected Premier League Table: Matchday 1 – Brentford top, Man Utd underperforming

Expected goals (xG) have rapidly become a staple of football.

The metric simply measures the quality of a team’s chance creation and is one of many barometers for a team’s success over a season. But individually and across smaller sample sizes, xG allows for quirky takes and interesting trends that feed fan discussions more than extensive analysis.

This Premier League season, The Athletic will dive into the various dimensions within xG to spot some of those trends in our Expected Premier League Tables.

The inaugural edition compares the 20 teams’ xG across Matchday 1 to their xG generated per league game in 2025-26. Sample size is the biggest caveat here — no sweeping generalisations can be made just yet.

Even on paper, Coventry City’s reintroduction to the Premier League after 25 years away — a visit to reigning champions Arsenal — looked daunting.

Frank Lampard’s team waltzed to the 2025-26 Championship title, recording a league-high 1.9xG per 90. At the Emirates on Friday, they managed about a tenth of that, with 0.2. Seventy-five per cent of that came from a Jack Rudoni header in the 86th minute that was easily saved by David Raya.

Arsenal’s 1.9xG was the most they have managed in their opening league game since the 3-0 win over Fulham in September 2020. That game saw Gabriel score from a corner, a familiar sight in 2025-26 too, but against Coventry, Mikel Arteta’s side scored three times from open play.

Title rivals Manchester City needed a set piece to draw level against Bournemouth, with Marc Guehi curiously unmarked in the box to score. That effort came half an hour after Guehi missed a chance worth 0.77xG from a corner, somehow directing his header wide.

City had just 13 shots, their second-fewest in an opening game since 2018-19.

Bournemouth underperformed their xG in each of their five Premier League seasons between 2019 and 2026 (and in one of their two Championship seasons in that time).

They had the top two xG underperformers in 2025-26, with Evanilson and David Brooks scoring seven combined goals from 16.9xG. That was marginally offset by Eli Junior Kroupi scoring 13 times from 8.4xG and Antoine Semenyo netting 10 times from 6.7xG before moving to City in January.

Marco Rose’s first game in charge saw them record just five shots worth 0.65xG. Evanilson turned provider for Marcus Tavernier, who became just the second player to score against City on the opening weekend since 2018 (after Son Heung-min in August 2021).

Brentford’s 3.9xG against Spurs is the third most by a team in the opening game of a Premier League season since 2018. It was also the fourth most they have recorded in a top-flight match since returning in 2022.

Efficiency has been their model. Brentford have recorded just 72 shots (worth 11.2xG) across their six opening games and have scored 12 goals from just 28 shots on target.

Spurs recorded their sixth-lowest xG total since the start of 2025-26 with just 0.57. Their xG allowed was the third most since the start of 2023-24, behind the 6-3 loss to Liverpool (5.6xG) in December 2024 and the 4-1 defeat to Chelsea (4.1xG) in November 2023.

Roberto De Zerbi’s sides can be prone to conceding multiple big chances if their pressing structure is exploited. In 54 Ligue 1 matches under him, Marseille conceded 73 goals and 73.7xG, while his Brighton side allowed 108 goals and 98.6xG in his 68 Premier League games in charge from 2022 to 2024.

Outscoring opponents will likely be Spurs’ best chance of winning matches under De Zerbi, especially in the time it takes them to adapt to his out-of-possession demands.

Brighton & Hove Albion account for two of the top four entries for most xG recorded on Matchday 1 since 2018. They put up 3.8xG against Aston Villa on their way to scoring four times, following on from the 4.0 they managed in a 4-1 win over Luton Town in August 2023.

Fabian Hurzeler’s side created the two best chances of the weekend too. The shot that led to Maxim De Cuyper’s goal was worth 0.96xG, while Jack Hinshelwood’s effort for the first of his double was worth 0.87xG.

For Aston Villa, this was nothing new. They created only 0.2xG in their 0-0 draw against Newcastle in their 2025-26 opener, when Ezri Konsa was sent off in the 66th minute. They slightly improved that to create 0.27xG against Brighton this time around, with Joao Gomes dismissed late in the first half.

Villa’s three matches after the Newcastle draw saw them create 2.8xG and fail to score. With Arsenal visiting this weekend followed by a trip to Hull City, the going in front of goal might be similarly difficult for Unai Emery’s side, especially if striker Ollie Watkins is still unavailable.

Newcastle United’s first game under Matthias Jaissle saw some positives in attack, especially in transition. This was their first league game with two fast-break goals since a 3-0 win over Leicester City in April 2025.

Their pace in attack feasted on a Liverpool side who were far too open in midfield. But Andoni Iraola’s side recorded 27 shots, and their 2.98xG generated was better than in 36 of 38 games last season.

Cody Gakpo’s long-range fizzer was worth all of 0.04xG, making it the joint-best finish of the weekend on xG terms.

It was level with Anton Stach’s late free-kick winner for Leeds United against Nottingham Forest. None of Leeds’ 11 efforts at the weekend were worth more than 0.09xG, while their 0.47xG generated was worse than in all but three games in 2025-26. Those are signs of how difficult it was for them to break down Oliver Glasner’s side.

Eleven of their 49 goals last season (including one own goal) came from similar low-quality shots worth under 0.1xG. Leeds have prioritised quantity over quality, with Stach’s strike their eighth goal from outside the box since their return to the top flight.

Forest had the best chance of that game in xG terms when Murillo sent Chris Wood through, but the veteran forward snatched at the chance, worth 0.12xG, and sent it wide. Ten minutes earlier, Wood’s strike partner, Igor Jesus, headed an Ola Aina cross wide at the far post, missing a 0.11xG chance.

Morgan Gibbs-White ranked fourth for xG overperformance last season (3.9; 15 goals from 11.1xG), while Wood was second in 2024-25 (6.6; 20 goals from 13.4xG). They might need something similar again as Glasner’s former side had a habit of wasting chances.

Crystal Palace were the Premier League’s serial xG underperformers over the last two seasons, scoring 92 goals in 76 matches from 119.6xG. The negative difference of 27.6 was nearly double the next worst team, Chelsea, on -13.4. Pierre Sage’s Lens faced similar issues in 2025-26, scoring 42 goals from 53.5xG.

Palace faced more of that against Everton over the weekend, failing to score despite creating 1.96xG, having recorded 1.5xG or more in eight of their 15 losses last season.

The brilliance of Jordan Pickford, who made the weekend’s best save from Eddie Nketiah’s 0.6xG-worth shot, was a factor. Jean-Philippe Mateta was guilty of missing two golden first-half chances worth a combined 0.7xG, hitting the post with one and firing over from in front of goal with the other.

Palace got themselves into good positions and created quality opportunities, though, and that is an encouraging sign for Sage.

Chelsea converted three of their four biggest chances in xG terms in the 3-2 win over Fulham. Romeo Lavia’s 36th-minute stab towards goal was the only exception, with Bernd Leno making a good sprawling save.

What made it an even more clinical display was how little of the ball they had. Chelsea’s 38 per cent possession in Xabi Alonso’s Premier League managerial bow was their third-lowest in the league since the start of 2024-25. They still managed 18 shots, more than in 32 of 38 games last season.

Fulham took advantage of some shaky goalkeeping from Robert Sanchez for both their goals. But Alvaro Arbeloa’s side also managed six shots on target, tying their highest tally from 2025-26 (on seven occasions), from 14 total efforts.

This was only their second league loss when overperforming their xG by 0.3 or more since the start of 2024-25. One of those was the 2-1 defeat to Chelsea in April 2025, while the other was the thrilling 5-4 home loss to Manchester City in December.

Everton also had a contender for goal of the weekend through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s stunner from a difficult angle, also worth just 0.04xG. Thierno Barry’s headed finish from Iliman Ndiaye’s cross, though, was an example of what could prove to be a fruitful strategy for David Moyes’ side.

Since the start of last season, only Chelsea (12.7) have created more xG from back-post crosses than Everton’s 8.8. In Barry and Beto, they have two excellent attackers of crosses into the box, having combined for 27 headed shots in the league in 2025-26.

Hull City used a similar strategy against Manchester United on their return to the top flight, scoring twice from headers through their centre-backs. The win, created by solid defensive foundations, saw their seventh-best xG overperformance since the start of 2025-26 (+0.99; two goals from 1.01xG).

Manchester United recorded 1.8xG but struggled to create quality chances. Michael Carrick’s team got just five of their 21 shots on target, while eight attempts were blocked. Their shot accuracy of 24 per cent was worse than in 33 of their 38 league matches last season. Sixteen of those attempts were worth less than 0.1xG.

Ipswich Town were also successful on their Premier League return, creating marginally more xG (1.8) than their 2025-26 average (1.7) in the win over Sunderland.

New signing Emersonn took one of the best chances of the weekend to get off the mark, tapping in a 0.77xG shot. Daizen Maeda could have joined him in scoring on debut but got his header from a good area worth 0.61xG horribly wrong.

Those two attempts contributed to Ipswich’s high xG tally despite attempting just 10 shots, fewer than in all but two games in the Championship last season. Jack Clarke’s late effort, with defenders and goalkeeper Robin Roefs to beat, was worth just 0.05xG but proved the winner.

For Sunderland, this was familiar territory, marking the 17th occasion in the 39 league games since the start of 2025-26 where they recorded 0.75xG or fewer. Nilson Angulo’s free kick, though, was their 15th goal out of 39 total (excluding four own goals) in that time to come from 0.05xG or less.

Their two best chances against Ipswich fell to Brian Brobbey, but Leif Davis and Marcelino Nunez threw themselves in the way to block on both occasions.