U.S. Open bracket analysis: Carlos Alcaraz gets a nightmare start, Aryna Sabalenka faces odyssey

The U.S. Open begins Sunday in New York City, and the draws for the men’s and women’s singles have thrown up some blockbuster first-round matches as Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka look to defend their titles.

The Athletic’s Matthew Futterman, Ava Wallace and James Hansen analyze an intriguing draw, as well as offering some of their picks for the best matches of the opening days.

What makes Carlos Alcaraz’s opening match so dangerous?

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz won’t have to test out his right wrist against a blasting server like Matteo Berrettini or Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round, but the U.S. Open’s draw — which gets revealed all at once — still brought a jumpscare.

He faces Roman Safiullin, who was last seen at a Grand Slam knocking out Andrey Rublev and João Fonseca before giving Novak Djokovic some fits. Russia’s Safiullin, 29, is just about the worst category of player for Alcaraz to meet after four months out. It’s very possible that his rusty tennis will need a bit of runway, or that he’ll need to manage a match and give himself the time to lose a set to play at a higher level.

Safiullin’s ferocious serve and all-out attacking style don’t let his opponents do that when he is on. He has a motor in his legs and in his racket and can play at a fast, staccato rhythm. Alcaraz needs time, but Safiullin is all too capable of taking that time away and putting Alcaraz in a position that even he can’t recover before he has a chance to blink.

In a news conference at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, Alcaraz lamented players “playing like Federer” against him and going nuclear. Safiullin is more than capable of doing that.

He is also a veteran. Safiullin has played on all sorts of big courts before, against big players. This isn’t some teenage qualifier walking into Arthur Ashe Stadium, who will melt against an all-time great in waiting.

If Alcaraz survives that first-round test, there is some other trouble lurking in his neighborhood, though his potential second and third-round matches offer tricky but less explosive opponents against whom Alcaraz might get the time he wants.

Tommy Paul is in his eighth. Ben Shelton is in his quarter. Novak Djokovic is in his half.

With a healthy wrist, all of that is more than manageable. With a questionable wrist, Alcaraz may have some questions to answer, none of them bigger than Safiullin first up.

Why does a top women’s star’s doubtfulness mean as much for others as it does for her?

In the immediate term, Elena Rybakina’s left Achilles could be the difference between her playing the tournament and not playing it. As the tournament unfolds, it could help to determine the trajectory of the title even if she is not there.

A healthy and fit Rybakina would appear to have relatively smooth sailing into the second week. Thea Frodin, a 17-year-old American who is the world No. 580 and who played a young Venus Williams in “King Richard”, isn’t a bad first-round opponent if she needs to test out her fitness.

But Rybakina’s fortunes have implications far beyond her own success. She is vying for world No. 1 with Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, and she holds all the cards: With a semifinal run, nothing the others do would matter, and one of them has to win the title to deny Rybakina the top ranking.

Moreover, her absence in the bottom quarter of the draw would present rich opportunity for Iga Świątek, the resurgent 2022 champion who is in her quarter, and for that half of the draw, especially given the women’s draw as a whole is relatively balanced.

All that’s a long way off. Most times draws don’t go as anyone thinks they might in women’s tennis where the best-of-three format invites upsets. Before the action even starts, Rybakina might cause some of her own.

Elena Rybakina is vying for the world No. 1 ranking at the U.S. Open. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)

Matt Futterman’s matches to watch:

Zeynep Sönmez vs. Coco Gauff (4)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Arthur Fils (10)

Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko (30)

Martin Damm vs. Frances Tiafoe (11)

Why will Aryna Sabalenka need to be careful with her optimism?

When was the last time that the top seed and defending champion at a major felt as vulnerable as Aryna Sabalenka does at the start of this U.S. Open?

The defending champion in New York, Sabalenka has reached just one semifinal in her past seven tournaments. She looked like a buzzsaw at the start of this year, finding full confidence in her ability to blend her classic power game with the feathery drop shots and improved touch that she has built up the past couple of years.

But Sabalenka appears to have lost some confidence in that newfound nuance, and a string of earlier losses than she is accustomed to have left her with more riding on this U.S. Open than arguably any other player in the draw. She’s got one last shot to win a Grand Slam title this year — as the world No. 1, she’s kind of expected to win at least one — and her No. 1 ranking could be up for grabs.

Given all that, Sabalenka’s got a thorny draw, the kind that could lull her given the relatively smooth first two rounds.

She could end up facing Wimbledon champion Linda Nosková or No. 11 seed Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, but before then she could run into two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejčíková in the third round. Krejčíková’s two major trophies have come on natural surfaces, not hard court, but she’s got exactly the type of angular, unpredictable, choppy game that could annoy Sabalenka into oblivion.

Speaking of angular, unpredictable, choppy games, Sabalenka could also face French Open finalist Maja Chwalińska. Then there’s Diana Shnaider, the woman who won a 6-0 third set against Sabalenka in Paris. All this could resolve into a gauntlet run, but there is plenty of danger.

One half of the men’s draw in need of some sauce?

There’s no doubt that there will be great tennis to watch early on in the men’s draw, but there is a small worry about the potential for a lack of atmosphere. Here’s where João Fonseca, who’s out with an abdominal injury, will be missed, along with his droves of Brazilian fans. Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas should put on a show — Fils always draws the crowd into his matches — and Frances Tiafoe vs. Martin Damm is an all-American match for which the home crowd will surely be lively.

Most of that is in the bottom half of the men’s draw, with the top looking a little light on intrigue early on. For first-round vibes, maybe head to the women’s draw instead, where Taylor Townsend and Chwalinská could carve each other to pieces and Coco Gauff and Zeynep Sönmez should be a fun clash of young players. Or, catch the Alexandra Eala show, where her thunderous fanbase is sure to be loud enough to compete with the rattle of the 7 train.

Alex Eala drew fans in their droves at her first U.S. Open last year. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

The relative lack of excitement might be over the heaviness around men’s tennis these days. The number of injuries is a natural dampener. Alcaraz just coming back from a wrist injury and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner missing the U.S. Open with a knee injury once again creates an opportunity for the field that, back during the French Open, felt exciting. Now it feels like smothering pressure that contenders like Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur, both in the top half with Alexander Zverev, buckle under. Perhaps that just means it’s time for a changing of the guard, similar to the Canadian Open, which marked the first time that all eight quarterfinalists at an ATP Masters 1000 were born in the 2000s.

Ava Wallace’s matches to watch:

Maja Chwalińska (20) vs. Taylor Townsend

Casper Ruud (19) vs. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Iva Jović (14) vs. Magdalena Freçh

Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka (WC)

A balanced women’s draw? In this economy?

One of the most exciting things about the WTA Tour right now lies in the nuance between openness and parity. There are many potential U.S. Open champions, but they are part of an exclusive group that will knock each other out until the end — provided that upsets don’t reign supreme.

The draw for the tournament has delivered by distributing them relatively evenly, though the bottom half outguns the top — a Rybakina withdrawal would change that a little. In the top half, Jessica Pegula is in superb form on hard courts despite not quite claiming a title in Canada and Cincinnati. Linda Nosková and Karolína Muchová, the Wimbledon champion and finalist, are there — and Muchová has two U.S. Open semifinals in her record book. Marta Kostyuk, who spent spring and early summer scorching to win after win, is there too.

In the bottom half, Rybakina and Świątek are joined by Naomi Osaka, whose U.S. Open semifinal run last year marked the start of her sustained upturn in form. But it might be the low-key bruising top of the bottom half — Gauff Mirra Andreeva! Amanda Anisimova! — that sees some of the contenders take lumps out of each other. Provided the first week goes smoothly, the second week in the women’s event promises to be a barnburner.

James Hansen’s matches to watch:

Sloane Stephens (WC) vs. Clara Tauson

Francisco Comesaña vs. Flavio Cobolli (5)

Madison Keys (22) vs. Alina Korneeva

Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic (4)

U.S. Open 2026: Women’s singles bracket

U.S. Open 2026: Men’s singles bracket

Which matchups are you looking out for? Let us know in the comments.