The race to build AI data centers is set to undo 15 years’ worth of greenhouse gas reductions from US electricity generation, according to a new internal analysis by the Sierra Club. The report projects the US power sector will emit 2.1 billion metric tons of CO2 by 2030 after factoring in planned AI projects — 618 million tons more than 2025 levels, or about a 42% increase.
Data center (Credits: Insurance Journal)
Data Center Emissions 2030: Gas Plants Driving the Surge
Many data center developers are turning to natural gas to meet immense electricity demand, relying on power sources both on and off the grid. The bulk of the expected emissions would come from off-grid “bring-your-own-power” plants — often built by tech companies to avoid long waits for grid connections — which could exceed 460 million tons, roughly the same as the annual emissions of all of Mexico, per the Sierra Club’s Jeremy Fisher.
The group’s estimate is higher than others released so far. The Union of Concerned Scientists projected in January that fossil-fuel-powered data center electricity could raise US power-sector emissions by 19% to 29% by 2035, while a June journal article from US and Canadian researchers projected a 28% rise. Rhodium Group’s highest-emission scenario, by contrast, still sees the sector’s emissions falling 24% below 2025 levels by 2040 as renewables outperform fossil fuels.
What Makes the Data Center Emissions Projections So Uncertain
BloombergNEF analyst Helen Kou notes the numbers hinge on how much gas power new facilities actually use. The lowest and highest power-emissions estimates differ by more electricity than the combined demand of California and Florida — reflecting open questions about how many facilities get built, what technology they use and how much renewable capacity comes online.
The context: US power-sector emissions peaked in 2007, then fell as fracking-era cheap gas displaced coal and EPA rules tightened. Today gas prices are historically low and the Trump administration has rolled back climate rules — a backdrop that, the analysis says, has already nudged power-sector emissions back up in 2025.
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Source: Insurance Journal — read the full story there.