Why is the Monaco Grand Prix expected to suit Ferrari more than McLaren, Mercedes or Red Bull? – Andrew

Mercedes have dominated the 2026 season so far, winning all the grands prix from pole position. The only time they have beaten to either the front of the grid or a victory was in the sprint in Miami, when Lando Norris took pole and the win for McLaren.

The reason Monaco has been identified as a place where that run may end, particularly in favour of Ferrari, is to do with car, engine and driver characteristics.

Monaco is the least power-sensitive track on the calendar. In other words, it is the track where cornering performance – particularly at low and medium-speed – is most important, and engine power least.

The Ferrari car this year has proved to be quick in the corners, arguably the fastest. That’s good for Monaco.

Meanwhile, its engine has both strengths and weaknesses. It has good low-speed pick-up, hence their good starts, but lacks top-end power. Again, good for Monaco, where a responsive engine is a benefit, and top-end power is relatively less important.

As for the drivers, Charles Leclerc is an ace around Monaco. In the past six years, he has qualified on pole three times, been second on the grid twice and third once.

Lewis Hamilton has also traditionally excelled at Monaco, and is in much better form this year after his struggles in 2024 and 2025.

He and Leclerc are tied 4-4 in their qualifying head to head this season, and Leclerc has an average advantage of only 0.037 seconds.

Add all that together, and it’s easy to see why Ferrari are fancied for a potential win this year.

Having said that, performance is performance. Ferrari’s average deficit to Mercedes in qualifying this year is 0.447 seconds, and that’s a big margin to make up just on a swing of characteristics.

And it would be unwise to rule out McLaren and Red Bull. The McLaren was quick in Miami, and has proved particularly good in low-speed corners this year. And Lando Norris won in Monaco from pole last year. While Max Verstappen is outstanding always.

It could be the closest weekend of the year so far.