Welcome back to The Athletic’s relegation battle tracker, where our data and tactics writers examine the key trends behind the fight for Premier League survival.

The perils of going down were distilled into a single afternoon last Saturday, as the scorelines swung in different directions during Tottenham Hotspur’s trip to Wolverhampton Wanderers and West Ham United’s home game with Everton.

It looks like — although not certain — it is now a straight fight between the two London clubs over who will join Wolves and Burnley in dropping to the Championship, with Nottingham Forest and Leeds United edging further away from 18th in recent weeks. Or are they?

With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, allow our analysts to assess the latest twists and turns as we enter the final four games.

The emotion of the relegation battle pictured after Callum Wilson’s late winner for West Ham against Everton (Warren Little/Getty Images)

What has changed since the last gameweek?

Desperation kicks in when you are staring relegation in the face.

Points on the board are essential, and each of the four teams fighting to stave off that fate are delivering them. Counterintuitively, they are some of the most in-form sides in the Premier League across recent games.

Each of Spurs, West Ham, Forest and Leeds have only lost three games combined across their previous five, respectively — with three of the four sides hoovering up maximum points last weekend.

Forest kicked it off with a thumping 5-0 away win against Sunderland last Friday, with Vitor Pereira’s side finding their shooting boots with a notable outperformance of their 1.1 expected goals.

The sight of a fit-again Chris Wood leading the line is a welcome relief to Forest fans for the run-in, scoring their second goal in what was only his second Premier League start since October. It was his first in the league since the opening weekend of the season in August, which shows just how much Forest have missed their vastly experienced centre-forward.

Leeds’ FA Cup semi-final with Chelsea on Sunday meant that the remaining drama was between Spurs and West Ham. Ultimately, it is very much as you were at the bottom with Roberto De Zerbi’s north Londoners still two points from safety, but that would be ignoring the peril that enlivened Saturday afternoon.

With both games kicking off at 3pm UK time, the news of each other’s fortunes was drip-fed to the fans — via smartphones rather than the transistor radios of the past — around Molineux and the London Stadium as emotions ebbed and flowed.

Tottenham struggled to break down already-relegated Wolves until Joao Palhinha bundled in an effort in the 83rd minute, with excitement compounded by the news that Everton had equalised late on.

But that was not the end of the drama, as Callum Wilson’s stoppage-time winner saw Nuno Espirito Santo’s side pick up three points and maintain their two-point cushion over Spurs. As we enter the final four games, survival is still in West Ham’s hands.

Who is looking stronger?

Forest’s momentum has come at the perfect time, with an unbeaten run of six league games to sit alongside their ongoing Europa League semi-final against Aston Villa.

Nine goals in their past two league matches is also not to be sniffed at, with a lot of that attacking firepower helped by playing Igor Jesus and Wood together up front.

That has also meant that Morgan Gibbs-White has been deployed closer to the left flank to accommodate those two, which has also worked to wondrous effect. Gibbs-White’s four goals in the two games speak for themselves, but his ability to find those pockets of space is helped by his strikers occupying the opposition centre-backs.

Leeds’ form should not be underplayed either, with just two losses in their previous 10 league games. It is not rubber-stamped yet, but their 40 points already — coupled with a straightforward-looking run-in — should see them steer clear of any potential drama.

If you started the season on January 1, West Ham’s 22 points would see them pushing for a European spot rather than straining to avoid relegation.

That tally is good enough for seventh place in 2026, which only serves to show how poor their start to the campaign was. The clear identity that has been found under Nuno after his late September appointment means that West Ham are doubling down on a style built on improved defensive foundations that maximise the strengths of their speedy counter-attacking threat — not to mention their greater proficiency from attacking set pieces.

Looking at their form across a wider period, that uptick in points-per-game is stark. West Ham are a side on the up, though they are still negotiating the prospect of going down.

Irrespective of their victory at the weekend, it is difficult to make a case that Tottenham are looking stronger when they continue to lose such crucial players to injury.

Winger Xavi Simons’ anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) knee injury will keep him out for some time, with striker Dominic Solanke also pulling up — albeit his ailment appears less serious — at Molineux to cast doubt over Spurs’ attacking firepower in the upcoming weeks.

Saturday’s victory was their first of 2026, but they desperately need more points in the remaining four games. Unfortunately, De Zerbi will be attempting to earn them with a threadbare squad.

Who has the toughest upcoming schedule?

Leeds should feel good about their situation, and a look at their remaining four games will give them confidence that a late dip is unlikely to occur.

Per Opta’s Power Rankings — denoting the strength of each team — Leeds have the second-easiest run-in of any Premier League side, with their upcoming home game against already-down Burnley almost guaranteed to secure safety if they take all three points.

Forest also look set for safety, but have nasty fixtures left against Chelsea, Newcastle, Manchester United and Bournemouth, who are all chasing European qualification of various kinds.

West Ham have been steadily building momentum with just one loss in five league games, but a glance at their remaining matches suggests that they are not out of the woods yet.

Statistically speaking, their fixtures are the third-most difficult among all teams. With things remaining so tight at the bottom, it might go down to the wire for West Ham, with a final-day home game with Leeds looking likely to be a win-at-all-costs fixture that is not to be missed.

None of Spurs’ fixtures look easy, but perhaps the context of their Sunday clash with Villa might calm some nerves in the fanbase — given that it falls between the first and second legs of their opponents’ Europa League semi-final against Forest.

This is the must-win stage for De Zerbi’s side in each of the remaining games. If they can get a helping hand along the way, they will snap your hand off.

What does the supercomputer say?

The dial has not moved too much from last week.

With Leeds not playing in the league last weekend, and three of the other at-risk teams winning, Opta’s supercomputer has stayed strong on the current projections for those who are most likely to face the drop.

Spurs have a 58 per cent probability of relegation going into this weekend, which has barely moved from last week’s 59 per cent. That spike has steadily risen to alarming levels since the turn of the year, but a positive result at Villa Park might see that spike drop — depending on results elsewhere.

The graphic above will be pleasant reading for Leeds and Forest, with a 1.2 and two per cent probability of relegation, respectively. Things remain touch and go for West Ham, who are the closest to Tottenham — in both risk and league position — when assessing their survival chances.

With tricky remaining fixtures, that 38 per cent probability could very easily increase by next week, but Nuno’s side will be keen to keep their destiny in their own hands for as long as possible.