DENVER —  To understand Hunter Goodman — the home-run hitting, trade-deadline surviving, Colorado Rockies All-Star — maybe start in Tennessee, where he grew up.

Maybe start with the juggling club.

Goodman developed into a dominant all-around athlete in Arlington, Tenn., located about 30 miles from Memphis. While baseball, football and basketball were staples of his calendar, he was also part of the Arlington Elementary School juggling team, which performed at Grizzlies and Memphis Tigers games and featured a lineup packed with future stars.

“Yeah. Did a little bit of juggling,” said Goodman, whose juggling club teammates included Phillies reliever Jonathan Bowlan and Tyler Gentry, an outfielder in the minors. “Wasn’t the best, but I tried.”

Maybe don’t start with the juggling club then. Maybe it is fine to start in the present, with Goodman draped in the purple faux fur coat, which the Rockies wear to celebrate home runs. This year, Goodman’s home run tally keeps climbing — 36 going into Thursday — even away from his hitter-friendly home ballpark. This year, too, he has weathered a gloomy trade deadline in Denver, leaving him as both part of Colorado’s present and future.

A left shoulder strain put Goodman’s power surge on hold — first by affecting his swing, then prompting a trip to the injured list. Upon his return Tuesday, though, he made an immediate impact. Goodman homered at Nationals Park in Washington to keep his numbers climbing. Then, he did it again on Wednesday.

NUMBER 3⃣6⃣ pic.twitter.com/01u9F5QftR

— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) August 27, 2026

“He can hit the ball anywhere,” Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said earlier this month.

Here’s how that happened.

On the diamond, Goodman’s story starts in Tennessee. Although he hit over .400 as a freshman for Arlington High School, his big swings rarely resulted in home runs.

“Believe it or not, he was kind of the opposite of what you see now,” Arlington assistant coach Michael Thees said. “What you see now is you see him hit a lot of home runs to left field, he’s got tremendous power to left field. We saw that in him, but the timing in high school, most of the balls he hit were center or right center.”

Lightly recruited during high school, Goodman played his college ball at nearby Memphis, where he emerged as an offensive force as a freshman, with 13 home runs and a .326 batting average. His best years, though, came over the next two seasons, hitting eight home runs in 17 games in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, then tallied 21 in 2021. Against Western Illinois in 2021, he had grand slams in all three games and drove in 22 runs in the series.

“Baseball is a game of failure, but he succeeded a lot,” Memphis associate head coach Russ McNickle recalled. “When Hunter got in the box, those guys are on the rail, pulling for him.”

That put him on MLB clubs’ radars, prompting Goodman and McNickle, a former catcher himself, to discuss a path to the majors.

Hunter Goodman returned from the injured list on Tuesday. (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

“The bat was going to get him to the big leagues, but from a position standpoint, (catcher) is going to be your best bet of getting there quicker,” McNickle said. “He loved playing back there, because he was involved in everything. He was a guy who wasn’t good if he just DH-ed or played a different position. He was better when he was involved in every pitch, every play.”

Goodman also split time between designated hitter and the outfield as a freshman. In the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he shifted to behind the plate, and McNickle empowered him to call pitches and have more autonomy.

“They were cool enough to let me call my own pitches, so I got to learn,” Goodman said. “You grow through failure and learn how to call a game or read some swings. I know where college baseball is today, where not a lot of catchers get the opportunity to do that.”

The Rockies selected Goodman in the fourth round of the 2021 MLB Draft, and after a combined 70 home runs between 2022 and 2023, he debuted for Colorado in 2023 and split time between the majors and minors in 2024.

In 2025, the Rockies made Goodman their full-time catcher, and he rewarded Colorado with an All-Star campaign and 31 home runs. In a historically awful Rockies season that included a franchise-worst 119 losses, Goodman was a rare bright spot.

His ascension has continued into 2026.

With 36 homers, Goodman trails Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson for most in the National League. After hitting 13 in June, Goodman hoped to participate in the Home Run Derby — and even brought his dad to Colorado to throw batting practice — but he did not receive an invite. While Coors Field is known for its batter-friendly altitude, he has mashed the majority of his homers away from Denver. Goodman’s home runs have helped mitigate his high strikeout rate — a downside of his aggressive approach — and defensive limitations.

At 26, Goodman has emerged as a leader by example and a beloved teammate in the Rockies’ clubhouse. Those characteristics have also emerged at his previous stops.

“He’s not super vocal as a teammate, but he is very silently competitive,” said Gentry, who was Goodman’s teammate from both his elementary school juggling and high school baseball squads. “You can definitely see it in his eyes, and he hates to fail as much as anyone from what I remember. You love seeing that, especially from one of your best hitters.”

This has not been an easy season in Denver, where Goodman was at the center of trade deadline talks this August. Still, as that deadline approached, he appeared focused on what he does best: blasting homers.

Take, for example, a warm summer evening at the start of August, when the Colorado catcher stepped to the plate in the third, with his Rockies trailing the Kansas City Royals. He sent Luinder Avila’s slider well over the left-field wall for a three-run homer. Four innings later, he drove a low pitch from reliever Alex Lange 424 feet to the same location for his sixth multi-homer game this season. He finished the night 4-for-5 as the Rockies rolled to a 12-6 win.

Goodman’s performance helped achieve two noteworthy feats. With the victory, the Rockies surpassed their win total from 2025. Also, Goodman broke the Rockies’ single-season record for home runs by a catcher … which he set in 2025.

“Baseball is a game of failure, but he succeeded a lot,” Memphis associate head coach Russ McNickle said of Hunter Goodman. “When Hunter got in the box, those guys are on the rail, pulling for him.” (Dustin Bradford / Getty Images)

He did all this on Aug. 1, with the MLB trade deadline looming. Colorado acting as a seller was never really in doubt. What was in question: Would Goodman finish the rest of 2026 in Denver, or elsewhere for a playoff contender?

Days later, the answer from the Rockies’ new-look front office became clear. Colorado turned down their suitors for Goodman, moving forward in its rebuild and uncertain future, with its star catcher at the forefront.

“We had a set price in mind of what it would take to acquire any of our players. We think we have a lot of good players here,” Paul DePodesta, the Rockies’ president of baseball operations, told reporters after the deadline. “We think we have the foundation of something that has the chance to be pretty good. With that, it was going to take a lot to pry any of those pieces away. I don’t think we got particularly close on any of those players because I think our internal price was going to be higher than what the market would bear.”

The Rockies sent two well-established members of their club elsewhere, trading pitcher Antonio Senzatela to Milwaukee and two-time Gold Glove-winner Brenton Doyle to the White Sox. Colorado also moved reliever Victor Vodnik to Miami for first baseman Connor Norby and prospect Aidan May. But Colorado retained Goodman, as well as outfielders Mickey Moniak and Jake McCarthy. Goodman, who had ranked sixth on The Athletic’s final trade deadline Big Board, has three years of club control remaining.

“I’m excited about it,” Goodman said. “We’re making a lot of improvements. We’re headed in the right direction. I really want to be a part of turning this thing around and getting back to the playoffs.”

Change makes things tough to predict. A new coach, a new scheme, a rookie quarterback — all of those changes can have a major impact on how an NFL team performs, and all of them are a challenge for my NFL Projection Model, or any model, to account for.

My model takes into account hundreds of variables, and while taking a data-driven approach is a sound way to make predictions, football is often chaotic and always unpredictable.

Who could have known what Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy would become for the San Francisco 49ers? How could one have predicted that then-relatively unknown Sean McVay would turn Jared Goff into an above-average quarterback after a disastrous rookie season?

These are just a couple of examples of how roster decisions and coaching hires can make forecasting the future a challenge.

So, with that background, let’s look at five of the teams that, in my opinion, the model had the hardest time projecting. We’ll start with a couple of teams in the AFC before moving on to the NFC.

AFC

Buffalo Bills: 10.7 wins

Josh Allen is a known commodity, which is a quick way of saying no one and nothing, including my model, doubts the QB will be great in 2026. So why are the Bills on this list? Well, it’s the rest of the roster and coaching staff that makes the Bills hard to project.

As it stands right now, the Bills are the model’s favorite to win the AFC East (51 percent) and rank atop the AFC when it comes to making the playoffs (74 percent). But with a lackluster receiving group and without many difference-makers on defense, I’m concerned about what happens to this team if Allen sees a dip in production. I love the offensive tackles, and Ed Oliver is great on the defensive front, but outside of that, do the Bills resemble a Super Bowl team? Because that’s where they’re priced right now, and a scary amount of that optimism rides on the right shoulder and legs of Allen.

They’ve also handed over the big job to former offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Former coach Sean McDermott may have had his flaws, but Brady is a total unknown as a head coach. I am optimistic about him bringing in Jim Leonhard as defensive coordinator, but he hasn’t called plays in the NFL and hasn’t called plays at any level since doing so at Wisconsin in 2022.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.4 wins

The Steelers are old, especially on defense and at quarterback, with the soon-to-be 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers under center. As you might imagine, aging curves are also a challenge to predict. We expect players to fall off as they get older, but by how much, and when that starts is tough to forecast.

Will defensive stars like T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward and Jalen Ramsey perform at a high level for another season? How far do they drop off? Can they stay healthy?

Beyond age, the most difficult variable to account for is how new coach Mike McCarthy will impact the offense and this roster as a whole. McCarthy probably doesn’t belong in the elite tier of coaches, but he is a good one. If he and Rodgers can rekindle some magic from their Green Bay Packers glory days, there is enough talent around them to believe this offense can be above average. Of course, that assumes Rodgers can still handle pressure and hold off Father Time a little longer.

If the older players stay productive and healthy, the Steelers will be in the hunt to defend their AFC North crown. If not, well, there’s no Mike Tomlin magic to save the Steelers this season.

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles: 10.4 wins

Maybe I’m a sucker for believing quarterback Jalen Hurts can return to the level of play he showed during runs to two Super Bowls. If he does, it will likely be because new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion proves to be a big upgrade over his predecessor, Kevin Patullo. But Mannion is an unknown commodity, and he’s far from the only question mark on this team.

The Eagles’ offensive line isn’t the dominant unit it once was, and it’s getting up there in the age department. Injuries have become a more persistent problem, and we all saw what happened when star right tackle Lane Johnson, who is 36, went down with an injury last year. There’s some noise in these numbers, but with Johnson on the field in 2025, the Eagles offense ranked ninth in adjusted EPA per play; they fell to 26th without him. Is this unit just one injury away from falling off a cliff? We also must acknowledge that longtime offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland is no longer coaching this unit. That kind of change is something a model has a very difficult time quantifying.

The pass rush is also tough to project. Before trading for Jaelan Phillips last year, the Eagles ranked 8th in EPA per play, 21st in success rate and 14th in pressure rate. After acquiring Phillips, those numbers jumped to third, second and third. Phillips is now with the Carolina Panthers, and while the Eagles traded for Jonathan Greenard, his status for Week 1 is up in the air.

Given all of this, are we sure the Eagles are going to win 10-plus games?

Green Bay Packers: 9.7 wins

My brain is like a ping-pong ball when thinking about the Packers. Sometimes I think they could contend for the Super Bowl; other times I think they’ll miss the playoffs. Neither outcome would surprise me.

On one hand, QB Jordan Love and coach Matt LaFleur have produced top-five offenses in two of the past three years, per my model. However, the offensive line is in the worst shape of LaFleur’s tenure, and while the pass catchers have tons of potential, wide receiver Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft have concerning injury track records. More injuries could be enough to sink Green Bay’s offensive production.

Then there’s the defense, where star pass rusher Micah Parsons is out for the first month-plus of the season. Last year, his first in Green Bay, Parsons was a difference-maker for the Packers defense. When Parsons was on the field, the Packers ranked 15th in EPA per play but fell to 28th when he was off the field. That’s a stark difference, and it’s concerning that even when he was on the field, they were just an average unit.

The last part of the uncertainty for the Packers is their change at defensive coordinator. Jeff Hafley has moved on to coach the Miami Dolphins, and the Packers brought in Jonathan Gannon to replace him. Will Gannon improve the unit? What he gets out of the defense without Parsons on the field could determine the Packers’ playoff fate before we reach October.

New York Giants: 7.1 wins

What are the Giants under new coach John Harbaugh? Are they playoff contenders, or a team that will pick near the top of the 2027 NFL Draft? The play of second-year QB Jaxson Dart will go a long way in determining the answer. He remains a bit of an enigma to project, however, following a promising rookie year filled with injuries.

Combine a perplexing young quarterback with a new scheme and a brand new coaching staff, and you start to see some wide distribution of outcomes.

And then we look at the defense, which has tons of pass rushers. Brian Burns is coming off an awesome season, and the Giants drafted linebacker/pass rusher Arvell Reese at No. 5. But maybe the piece I’m most excited about is pass rusher Abdul Carter. He didn’t register the sack numbers last year, but he was incredible at generating pressure. But will this front seven be able to stop the run? After trading defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals, the middle of the defense is thin, and that can lead to these pass rushers being nullified, with the Giants’ defense failing to force the offense into true passing situations.

An incident during which England bowler Brydon Carse was handcuffed outside a nightclub is being investigated by Derbyshire Police, who say they are looking into allegations of assault.

Images circulating on social media on Sunday showed Carse in handcuffs and surrounded by police officers while the pace bowler was on a night out in Derby on Saturday.

The 31-year-old was briefly arrested on suspicion of being drunk and disorderly.

The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) said the incident would be investigated by the Cricket Regulator and, as a result, Carse was removed from the England squad for the second Test against Pakistan.

On Monday, Derbyshire Police said a man had been briefly detained outside Molly Malone’s bar, before being released.

“A man in his 30s was arrested on suspicion of being drunk and disorderly in Derby city centre on Saturday night,” said the police.

“However the man was de-arrested shortly afterwards having agreed to leave the area.”

On Wednesday, the police gave a further statement, which said: “We are investigating allegations of an assault in Derby city centre.

“No arrests have yet been made and the investigation is ongoing.”

Carse has been approached for a response, while the ECB has not commented.