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U.S. Open bracket analysis: Carlos Alcaraz gets a nightmare start, Aryna Sabalenka faces odyssey

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The U.S. Open begins Sunday in New York City, and the draws for the men’s and women’s singles have thrown up some blockbuster first-round matches as Carlos Alcaraz and Aryna Sabalenka look to defend their titles.

The Athletic’s Matthew Futterman, Ava Wallace and James Hansen analyze an intriguing draw, as well as offering some of their picks for the best matches of the opening days.


What makes Carlos Alcaraz’s opening match so dangerous?

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz won’t have to test out his right wrist against a blasting server like Matteo Berrettini or Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round, but the U.S. Open’s draw — which gets revealed all at once — still brought a jumpscare.

He faces Roman Safiullin, who was last seen at a Grand Slam knocking out Andrey Rublev and João Fonseca before giving Novak Djokovic some fits. Russia’s Safiullin, 29, is just about the worst category of player for Alcaraz to meet after four months out. It’s very possible that his rusty tennis will need a bit of runway, or that he’ll need to manage a match and give himself the time to lose a set to play at a higher level.

Safiullin’s ferocious serve and all-out attacking style don’t let his opponents do that when he is on. He has a motor in his legs and in his racket and can play at a fast, staccato rhythm. Alcaraz needs time, but Safiullin is all too capable of taking that time away and putting Alcaraz in a position that even he can’t recover before he has a chance to blink.

Carlos Alcaraz confirms U.S. Open return

Ava Wallace and Lauren Morales-Jones

In a news conference at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, Alcaraz lamented players “playing like Federer” against him and going nuclear. Safiullin is more than capable of doing that.

He is also a veteran. Safiullin has played on all sorts of big courts before, against big players. This isn’t some teenage qualifier walking into Arthur Ashe Stadium, who will melt against an all-time great in waiting.

If Alcaraz survives that first-round test, there is some other trouble lurking in his neighborhood, though his potential second and third-round matches offer tricky but less explosive opponents against whom Alcaraz might get the time he wants.

Tommy Paul is in his eighth. Ben Shelton is in his quarter. Novak Djokovic is in his half.

With a healthy wrist, all of that is more than manageable. With a questionable wrist, Alcaraz may have some questions to answer, none of them bigger than Safiullin first up.

Why does a top women’s star’s doubtfulness mean as much for others as it does for her?

In the immediate term, Elena Rybakina’s left Achilles could be the difference between her playing the tournament and not playing it. As the tournament unfolds, it could help to determine the trajectory of the title even if she is not there.

A healthy and fit Rybakina would appear to have relatively smooth sailing into the second week. Thea Frodin, a 17-year-old American who is the world No. 580 and who played a young Venus Williams in “King Richard”, isn’t a bad first-round opponent if she needs to test out her fitness.

But Rybakina’s fortunes have implications far beyond her own success. She is vying for world No. 1 with Sabalenka, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula, and she holds all the cards: With a semifinal run, nothing the others do would matter, and one of them has to win the title to deny Rybakina the top ranking.

Moreover, her absence in the bottom quarter of the draw would present rich opportunity for Iga Świątek, the resurgent 2022 champion who is in her quarter, and for that half of the draw, especially given the women’s draw as a whole is relatively balanced.

All that’s a long way off. Most times draws don’t go as anyone thinks they might in women’s tennis where the best-of-three format invites upsets. Before the action even starts, Rybakina might cause some of her own.

Elena Rybakina tosses the ball in the air before hitting a serve on a blue tennis court.

Elena Rybakina is vying for the world No. 1 ranking at the U.S. Open. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)

Matt Futterman’s matches to watch:

Zeynep Sönmez vs. Coco Gauff (4)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Arthur Fils (10)

Tatjana Maria vs. Jelena Ostapenko (30)

Martin Damm vs. Frances Tiafoe (11)

Why will Aryna Sabalenka need to be careful with her optimism?

When was the last time that the top seed and defending champion at a major felt as vulnerable as Aryna Sabalenka does at the start of this U.S. Open?

The defending champion in New York, Sabalenka has reached just one semifinal in her past seven tournaments. She looked like a buzzsaw at the start of this year, finding full confidence in her ability to blend her classic power game with the feathery drop shots and improved touch that she has built up the past couple of years.

But Sabalenka appears to have lost some confidence in that newfound nuance, and a string of earlier losses than she is accustomed to have left her with more riding on this U.S. Open than arguably any other player in the draw. She’s got one last shot to win a Grand Slam title this year — as the world No. 1, she’s kind of expected to win at least one — and her No. 1 ranking could be up for grabs.

Given all that, Sabalenka’s got a thorny draw, the kind that could lull her given the relatively smooth first two rounds.

She could end up facing Wimbledon champion Linda Nosková or No. 11 seed Marta Kostyuk in the quarterfinals, but before then she could run into two-time Grand Slam champion Barbora Krejčíková in the third round. Krejčíková’s two major trophies have come on natural surfaces, not hard court, but she’s got exactly the type of angular, unpredictable, choppy game that could annoy Sabalenka into oblivion.

Speaking of angular, unpredictable, choppy games, Sabalenka could also face French Open finalist Maja Chwalińska. Then there’s Diana Shnaider, the woman who won a 6-0 third set against Sabalenka in Paris. All this could resolve into a gauntlet run, but there is plenty of danger.

One half of the men’s draw in need of some sauce?

There’s no doubt that there will be great tennis to watch early on in the men’s draw, but there is a small worry about the potential for a lack of atmosphere. Here’s where João Fonseca, who’s out with an abdominal injury, will be missed, along with his droves of Brazilian fans. Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas should put on a show — Fils always draws the crowd into his matches — and Frances Tiafoe vs. Martin Damm is an all-American match for which the home crowd will surely be lively.

Most of that is in the bottom half of the men’s draw, with the top looking a little light on intrigue early on. For first-round vibes, maybe head to the women’s draw instead, where Taylor Townsend and Chwalinská could carve each other to pieces and Coco Gauff and Zeynep Sönmez should be a fun clash of young players. Or, catch the Alexandra Eala show, where her thunderous fanbase is sure to be loud enough to compete with the rattle of the 7 train.

Alex Eala roars in celebration with Filipino flags in a tennis crowd behind her.

Alex Eala drew fans in their droves at her first U.S. Open last year. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)

The relative lack of excitement might be over the heaviness around men’s tennis these days. The number of injuries is a natural dampener. Alcaraz just coming back from a wrist injury and world No. 1 Jannik Sinner missing the U.S. Open with a knee injury once again creates an opportunity for the field that, back during the French Open, felt exciting. Now it feels like smothering pressure that contenders like Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alex de Minaur, both in the top half with Alexander Zverev, buckle under. Perhaps that just means it’s time for a changing of the guard, similar to the Canadian Open, which marked the first time that all eight quarterfinalists at an ATP Masters 1000 were born in the 2000s.

Ava Wallace’s matches to watch:

Maja Chwalińska (20) vs. Taylor Townsend

Casper Ruud (19) vs. Juan Manuel Cerúndolo

Iva Jović (14) vs. Magdalena Freçh

Matteo Berrettini vs. Stan Wawrinka (WC)

A balanced women’s draw? In this economy?

One of the most exciting things about the WTA Tour right now lies in the nuance between openness and parity. There are many potential U.S. Open champions, but they are part of an exclusive group that will knock each other out until the end — provided that upsets don’t reign supreme.

The draw for the tournament has delivered by distributing them relatively evenly, though the bottom half outguns the top — a Rybakina withdrawal would change that a little. In the top half, Jessica Pegula is in superb form on hard courts despite not quite claiming a title in Canada and Cincinnati. Linda Nosková and Karolína Muchová, the Wimbledon champion and finalist, are there — and Muchová has two U.S. Open semifinals in her record book. Marta Kostyuk, who spent spring and early summer scorching to win after win, is there too.

In the bottom half, Rybakina and Świątek are joined by Naomi Osaka, whose U.S. Open semifinal run last year marked the start of her sustained upturn in form. But it might be the low-key bruising top of the bottom half — Gauff Mirra Andreeva! Amanda Anisimova! — that sees some of the contenders take lumps out of each other. Provided the first week goes smoothly, the second week in the women’s event promises to be a barnburner.

James Hansen’s matches to watch:

Sloane Stephens (WC) vs. Clara Tauson

Francisco Comesaña vs. Flavio Cobolli (5)

Madison Keys (22) vs. Alina Korneeva

Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic (4)

U.S. Open 2026: Women’s singles bracket

U.S. Open 2026: Men’s singles bracket

Which matchups are you looking out for? Let us know in the comments.

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Rangers: ‘Mortified’ Derek McInnes takes responsibility for European exit

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The stats back up McInnes’ anger. Rangers had just over 46% possession during the 120 minutes in the Czech Republic, and just one shot on target.

They won fewer than 70% of their 16 tackles and committed 17 fouls.

“I can’t accept, and we shouldn’t accept, losing individual battles, duels, second balls, not winning enough tackles and just getting the momentum of the game going our way,” the former Hearts manager added.

“I thought we looked young, inexperienced at times. We’re trying to make some signings to help with that side of it but we need to do so much more as a team.

“We got what we deserved. If we’d won on penalties we would have taken it, of course, but it would only have covered over the cracks.

“I’m mortified with the performance. I know you can lose games of football but we should have enough in the building to take care of that tonight.”

Rangers had won their two previous games – a 5-1 win over St Mirren in the League Cup and the 1-0 victory against Jablonec at Ibrox – after drawing at Dundee United and losing at home to Hibernian in their opening two Premiership matches.

But McInnes feels this latest result may set them back.

“We went into this game scrambling for some sort of confidence, some positivity,” he said. “But I just thought the team that deserved to go through went through tonight and that’s hard for me to take.”

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Good Good Golf will no longer sponsor PGA Tour tournament this fall

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PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp criticized Good Good Golf's initial approach to the backlash over an advertisement.

PGA Tour CEO Brian Rolapp criticized Good Good Golf’s initial approach to the backlash over an advertisement. Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images

The PGA Tour announced Thursday that Good Good Golf — the online platform mired in controversy over an advertisement that depicted its male co-founder shoving a female employee to the ground — will no longer be the title sponsor of its tournament in Austin, Texas, this fall.

“The PGA Tour has been informed of Good Good Golf’s decision to step away as sponsor of the event in Austin, Texas, this fall,” the statement read. “We agree with their decision to use this time to focus on their organization and the work ahead. The PGA Tour believes in golf’s ability to bring people together and create a welcoming environment for all.”

The tour said that the event will still be played as scheduled, from Nov. 12-15 at the Omni Barton Creek Fazio Canyons Golf Course. As of Thursday afternoon, the Good Good Championship’s website was no longer operating.

Good Good was in the first year of the planned sponsorship of the new event. Earlier on Thursday, Callaway announced it had cut ties with the company, which started with a YouTube channel and had since grown into a merchandising behemoth in the golf space.

This story will be updated.

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What We’re Hearing: MLS transfer window set for a hectic final week

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There’s less than a week left in the summer transfer window in MLS. It is shaping up to be quite a busy week.

This is The Athletic’s latest intel ahead of the deadline on September 2 and the teams to watch:

Sporting KC overhaul

Sporting KC, with two open designated player spots and a mandate from ownership that “money is not an obstacle” is the most interesting team over the next six days, even though they are dead last in MLS at the moment.

The club is hoping to supercharge its rebuild with those two DP slots after adding 17 new players this year and shipping out 16. SKC already signed Brazilian winger Andre Luiz for a club-record fee of $18 million and it’s not a guarantee that record will stand by next week. 

“We’re going to be as aggressive and as bold as we can,” sporting director David Lee told The Athletic.

The shopping list is simple: A center forward and an attacking midfielder with those two DP spots. Identification and execution, obviously, is much more difficult. 

A sporting director at a different MLS club this week quipped to The Athletic that spending $12 million or more is not as easy as it looks. Players in these categories are typically in better situations and have other European options. It’s easy to overspend on the wrong player. SKC are being careful in their target lists not to do so.

It’s been a busy week already for SKC. A shock departure of leading scorer Dejan Joveljic ($6 million, Seattle Sounders) created one of the DP openings as well as a valuable injection of $3 million GAM. 

Dejan Joveljic moved on from Sporting KC to the Seattle Sounders in a surprising deal. (Luiza Moraes / Getty Images)

SKC then signed U.S. youth international midfielder Owen Wolff from Austin FC for $4.5 million. He will occupy a U-22 slot. A high-quality, MLS-proven player hitting the salary cap at a controlled, low cost.

Sporting KC are in advanced talks to sign forward Paulos Abraham from Hammarby, sources say. The 24-year-old former Sweden youth international has 11 goals and three assists in just under 1,400 minutes this year.

The club also made an audacious attempt to sign Nico Fernandez Mercau from NYCFC in a potential $25 million deal, as previously reported, but sources said last week those talks are not active.

Rapids reloading

The Colorado Rapids aim to bring in multiple significant attacking reinforcements this summer. One is on the way.

Colorado is finalizing a deal to sign Israel international forward Sayed Abu Farkhi from Maccabi Tel Aviv for a $6 million fee, sources tell The Athletic. He will occupy a U-22 initiative slot.

The highly-rated 20-year-old forward was on the radar of numerous clubs in Europe. Abu Farkhi made his senior Israel debut this summer after excelling at the youth national team level. Abu Farkhi has five goals in 401 minutes already this season after 10 goals across all competitions in 2,477 minutes last year.

Colorado remains aggressive in pursuing their top targets for a DP winger, sources say, as the club looks to immediately reinvest money received in the deal that sent Lucas Herrington to Hull City ($17 million guaranteed). Those top targets are complex deals for a mix of players with other options or clubs not looking to sell. The next few days at the end of the transfer window is crucial.

Paxten Aaronson is a key contributor for the Colorado Rapids. (Ron Chenoy / Imagn Images)

Brazilian forward Rafa Navarro continues to have a ton of serious interest from other clubs. Colorado has received bids in each of the last several transfer windows and had braced for an exit at some point in 2026 but that hasn’t happened yet.

Abu Farkhi can ease into the team with Navarro seeing out 2026 in Colorado or will be ready to take more minutes if a huge offer arrives. Either way, the Rapids understand Navarro may move on over the next transfer window or two and want to be prepared, sources say.

If that departure comes, Colorado would have another DP spot open beyond Paxten Aaronson. 

Colorado wanted to rejuvenate the attack under head coach Matt Wells this summer and there are plenty of moving pieces. The defense is strong even with Herrington out, as Loic Williams was an under the radar signing that has settled immediately in the team.

St. Louis look to add in attack

St. Louis City is also looking to make significant additions to their attack as the club is on a 12-game unbeaten run.

The club has an open DP spot and aims to use it on a center forward if they can get a top target, but also is working on other possibilities. 

St. Louis City is a team pursuing American forward Damion Downs, sources briefed on the situation tell The Athletic. Downs, 22, is expected to leave Southampton this summer. St. Louis hopes to bring him on loan but would not use a DP slot to do so, sources say. 

The forward spent the second half of last season on loan in the Bundesliga with Hanover after he fell out of favor with Southampton the first half of the year. He excelled with FC Köln in the German second tier in the 2024/25 season.

The profile the club is looking for at center forward with the DP spot is an all-around player who can do more than just score and will lead the team’s counterpress against the ball, sources say.

St. Louis has had an eventful summer, with DP attacker Carlo Holse joining as Marcel Hartel and Eduard Löwen left. St. Louis has climbed to sixth in the Western Conference along this unbeaten run under first year head coach Yoann Damet.

More outbounds coming?

MLS clubs have exported a number of players this summer, led by Herrington ($17m, Hull City) and Zavier Gozo ($15m, Crystal Palace). Further outgoings can come, though Red Bull New York forward Julian Hall just signed a contract extension to remain with the club a bit longer. 

Here are a few possible or rumored:

Nico Fernandez Mercau (NYCFC): SKC wasn’t the only team bidding on Mercau this summer, with European clubs approaching NYCFC as well. NYCFC want to keep their talisman and no deals were reached.

At the moment, NYCFC is confident in holding onto Mercau through the end of the window, a source says.

Mercau, 26, has a career-best 13 goals and five assists this season. He has been one of the  very best players in MLS since arriving last summer.

Kevin Denkey is attracting interest beyond Cincinnati. (Orlando Ramirez / Getty Images)

Kevin Denkey (FC Cincinnati): Hull City and Real Betis had bids rejected for Denkey by Cincy this summer, with the club holding out for at least $20 million, sources briefed on the negotiations say. 

Cincy signed Denkey for a fee of $16.2 million and view offers around that fee as a non-starter. The 25-year-old Togo international has scored 33 goals in a season and a half in MLS after winning the Golden Boot in Belgium.

Hull City has since signed forwards and Betis did not remain in pursuit as they were priced out. With his price tag, if Denkey is to leave in the next few days, likely only Premier League or ambitious Championship sides could make it happen.

“Honestly, it’s not easy,” Denkey told Laurel Pfahler of Queen City Press. “You have to talk to teams in Spain, you have to talk to … staff members in England (but) you need to focus here.”

Manu Duah (San Diego FC): One of the best young center backs in MLS, Duah remains at San Diego for the time being as Olwethu Makhanya (Rangers) and Herrington head to Europe.

San Diego has rejected bids far below their valuation, sources say, which is expected to be in the range of $10 million. It’s very possible Duah signs a new contract and sticks around at the club a bit longer before heading to Europe but the situation is fluid at this time of year. Progress has been made on a new deal, sources say.

Duah, 21, has been a revelation over the 18 months. He was selected No. 1 overall in the 2025 MLS SuperDraft out of UC Santa Barbara as a defensive midfielder before San Diego developed him at center back.

Jack McGlynn (Houston Dynamo): Several European clubs have approached Houston for McGlynn this summer and, while no deal has been reached, negotiations are serious, sources say.

McGlynn, 23, has 13 caps for the USMNT. He has nine goals and 13 assists in 50 appearances for Houston after arriving from the Philadelphia Union in 2025.

Houston plans to bring in a player or two irrespective if McGlynn leaves, a source says.

Marco Pasalic (Orlando City): After Hull City had a loan offer rejected and never returned with a permanent offer, it looks like Pasalic may stay in MLS for the rest of the year.

The latest enquiries from Europe are around loans again and Orlando would prefer a permanent deal if a departure was to happen.

Pasalic, 25, represented Croatia at the World Cup this summer and would be interested in a return to Europe if a deal materialized. He joined ahead of the 2025 season and had 12 goals and five assists last year.

Liel Abada (right) finds his Charlotte FC future in flux. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)

Liel Abada (Charlotte FC): The plan had been for Abada to depart Charlotte FC this summer, but that is not guaranteed now. The Israeli winger has played more and been productive since returning from the World Cup break, with three goals and four assists in eight games.

Charlotte holds a contract option on Abada for 2027, which would make the winger a DP. It’s possible that is declined and he’ll depart as a free agent.

Antony (Portland Timbers): Every window, there is varying degrees of interest or bids to Portland for winger Antony and that may happen over the next week (or two, with Turkish and Middle Eastern transfer windows open longer than primary European leagues).

Antony, 24, has 18 goals and 14 assists in 101 games for the Timbers since arriving in the summer of 2023.

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