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Politics Home Article | Why The Iran War Is Making Food In The UK More Expensive

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Why The Iran War Is Making Food In The UK More Expensive

The British Retail Consortium expects food inflation to rise sharply to around six to eight per cent by next year. (Alamy)


5 min read

Fuel and energy are not the only essentials impacted by the Iran war, with experts warning that grocery prices could rise sharply in the next 12 months.

Last week, Chancellor Rachel Reeves met with supermarket bosses to discuss the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on supermarket prices.

On Tuesday, Reeves expressed her strongest criticism yet of the US decision to launch strikes on Iran, saying it was “folly” to attack the country without a clear strategy.

“Obviously, no sensible person is a supporter of the Iranian regime, but to start a conflict without being clear what the objectives are and not being clear about how you are going to get out of it, I do think that is a folly, and it is one that is affecting families here in the UK but also families in the US and around the world,” she told The Daily Mirror.

Reeves is dealing with inflation across the board as a result of disruption to global trade caused by the war.

Petrol prices climbed shortly after the US and Israel first launched strikes on Iran, while Tehran’s threat to attack ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane responsible for significant portions of the world’s gas and oil, has led to a sharp rise in global energy prices.

The government has made support available for people reliant on heating oil, but is under increasing pressure to announce a wider package of support to protect household bills. 

But the cost-of-living headache doesn’t stop there. The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) trade body recently warned that UK food inflation could reach as high as 9 per cent by the end of 2026 as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.

Why is the Iran war affecting UK food prices?

The disruption to vital trade flows in the Middle East is not just impacting oil and gas, which food producers use for energy and transport, but also a key nitrogen-based fertiliser called Urea.

Urea, which relies on gas, is vital to global food production as it is widely used in the agriculture sector to grow crops — particularly at this time of year, spring.

Pressure on urea supplies means farmers will have to pay more for it, which in turn will lead to higher prices for the consumer.

According to Harvir Dhillon, economist at the British Retail Consortium (BRC), “you can already see an uptick in food price inflation” in the latest United Nations data, “and it will likely continue”.

He explained that it will take a few months before the impact is properly felt, telling PoliticsHome: “If we assume that the trajectory of food prices will follow something similar to what we saw following Ukraine-Russia… food inflation pretty much starts to increase more or less three or four months after that point.”

The National Farmers’ Union (NUF) has warned that farmers are “under immense pressure”.

“Farmers and growers are having to shoulder increased costs of fuel and fertiliser, often only being made aware of the price they will pay once products have been delivered onto farm,” said NFU president, Tom Bradshaw. 

“If these cost pressures persist —  which span the whole food supply chain — food inflation could rise, as recent reporting suggests.”

The Bank of America has estimated that global urea prices have increased by up to 40 per cent since the start of the Iran war.

In the UK, estimates vary in terms of how this will impact the cost of food at home.

The FDF, which represents 12,000 food and drink manufacturers nationwide, has predicted that food inflation will hit 9 per cent by the end of the year.

The BRC currently believes that it will peak slightly lower, between 6 and 8 per cent, and slightly later, in early 2027.

What action could be taken?

The government continues to argue that the best way to protect people from the economic impact of the Iran war is to re-open the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

Later this week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will co-host a meeting of world leaders to discuss restoring freedom of navigation in the vital shipping lane as soon as conditions allow it.

The UK government has said it does not support President Donald Trump’s decision to blockade ships entering or exiting the strait after peace talks between the US and Iran failed to produce an agreement.

Ultimately, ninisters have no direct control over food prices in the UK as they are largely driven by global forces.

Affected sectors say the government can ease the overall financial pressure by providing relief elsewhere, with the BRC calling for retailers to be given support with their energy bills, and the NFU urging ministers to reduce electricity charges for farmers using glasshouses to grow.

In the long-term, MPs like Alistair Carmichael, chair of the food and rural affairs select committee, argue that the UK must think seriously about improving its food security so that it isn’t “left swinging in the wind” every time there is a global supply shock.

“I have been banging on about food security and resilience in supply chains for a long time, and we have always spoken about that in the context of production,” the long-serving Lib Dem MP told PoliticsHome.

“Why we need to have a critical mass of livestock, why we need to have land for cultivation, and the rest of it.”

He said boosting domestic food production should be a key priority for the government as it seeks to bolster national defence.

The MP was echoed by the NFU’s Bradshaw, who told PoliticsHome: “In the long-term, it all comes down to resilience.

“We need to find ways to prevent UK farm businesses from becoming collateral damage of global politics. This is about ensuring we have a stable homegrown food sector which can withstand shocks from global volatility and continue to produce food for the 70m consumers of the UK.”

A government spokesperson said: “We are taking the effects of the Iran war very seriously and are actively monitoring the potential impact of the conflict on the food and farming sector.

“We expect no change to food availability and are continuing to meet with stakeholders, including farmers’ unions, to share information on rising fuel and oil prices – ready to act to protect our rural communities.”

 

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Politics Home Article | Lib Dems Go Soul Searching In Brighton

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Lib Dems Go Soul Searching In Brighton

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey with party president Josh Babarinde and deputy leader Daisy Cooper at the party conference in Brighton (Alamy)


11 min read

Questions about the Liberal Democrats’ strategy, message and identity dominated the party’s conference in Brighton.

As Lib Dem parliamentarians and activists arrived on the south coast at the weekend, they were encouraged to write on a board why they support the party.

“I want to live in a country where every voice and every vote matters.” “Fairness and equality of opportunity.” “I didn’t want to stand by and see our country overtaken by malign actors.” “Honesty, decency, integrity and progressivism.” “Because it doesn’t need to be this shit.”

The range of answers reflected a growing debate within the Lib Dems that was the biggest talking point in Brighton: what, and who, are they for?

The question was putting pressure on leader Ed Davey in the weeks, even months, leading up to the weekend.

On the eve of conference, South Cotswolds MP Roz Savage said publicly what many Lib Dems had been complaining about in private: that their party is “struggling for relevance”. In an essay shared exclusively with PoliticsHome, Savage argued that liberals must “rediscover” their “insurgent spirit”, rather than being “the polite custodians of a system that leaves people feeling powerless”.

Indeed, as Lib Dem direction comes under growing scrutiny, senior party figures told PoliticsHome they had noticed more media attention than they would normally expect at this stage of a Parliament.

Davey has made no secret of his desire to see the Liberal Democrats enter government after the next general election, telling The House in a recent interview that he would be “the most experienced leader” in the event of a hung parliament. 

Faced with criticism, he has pointed to the party’s electoral gains at local level as evidence of success. “We’re winning where it matters: at the ballot box,” he declared in Brighton.

Having won a record 72 MPs in the 2024 general election, the Lib Dems transformed their presence in Westminster. However, in recent months, multiple party figures have expressed frustration with what they describe as failure to capitalise on this success and stagnant polling, and fear that the Lib Dems are failing to cut through in a fragmented political climate. 

Speaking to PoliticsHome at conference, one MP blamed “growing pains”: a Lib Dem central operation that had taken time to catch up with the size of the parliamentary party.

Another MP described this year’s conference as “edgier” than previous years, adding that restlessness with Davey’s leadership was leading to conversations about possible successors: “This one feels edgier about the leadership… The three who would go for it are Lisa Smart, Daisy Cooper and Max Wilkinson. Whether they’d do any better, I don’t know.”

Cooper, the party’s deputy leader, is generally seen as the most obvious potential successor to Davey. She was once widely seen as the natural heir, although that assumption has faded somewhat over the past two years as 2024-intake MPs like Wilkinson, Calum Miller and Josh Babarinde have risen through the ranks.

Daisy Cooper
Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper is seen as a front runner to succeed Ed Davey (Alamy)

Babarinde has recently taken on the presidency of the Liberal Democrats for a three-year term, and the expectation among colleagues is that he will see that role through before considering a leadership bid – following a path similar to that taken by former leader Tim Farron.

Smart, who is a close ally of Davey, is seen as a potential continuity candidate, while Miller and Wilkinson are widely viewed as highly competent spokespeople for the party. However, MPs worry that if a leadership change were to happen now, any potential successor would struggle to achieve the same name recognition with the public that Davey has earned through years of campaigning and media stunts. 

Furthermore, while there was chat about Davey’s successor in Brighton, few party figures believe a change in leadership anytime soon is a serious possibility.

While some Lib Dem MPs privately acknowledge frustrations with the party’s progress since the election, many remain relatively comfortable when looking at polling in their own constituencies, which are largely based in former-Conservative voting parts of southern England. An MRP poll carried out by Electoral Calculus in June this year shows the Lib Dems holding steady with 72 seats.

“It’s just not that deep,” one Lib Dem MP joked, arguing that some of the Lib Dem MPs most critical of Davey also “do not have an alternative” to offer.

there is an absence of underlying understanding publicly as to what the party’s purpose is

For now, the party is attempting to project unity and purpose rather than succession politics. Victoria Collins, the MP for Harrow West, described the mood of conference as one of preparation for government.

“The general tone is that we are ambitious, we are going for government, whatever that looks like, and we’re preparing for it,” she said. 

That said, while Davey’s position is still regarded as secure, he is undoubtedly under pressure to clarify the party’s message beyond the so-called “blue wall” seats won at the last election.

In his conference speech on Tuesday, he made a moral case for the Lib Dems, telling the party that it is in a fight for the country’s future against the modern-day far right.

At a panel organised by the Social Liberal Forum (SLF), the SLF chair John Shreeve argued that the Liberal Democrats had become effective campaigners in areas where they already possessed capacity, but struggled to expand that model elsewhere.

“The conclusion that we reach is that there is an absence of underlying understanding publicly as to what the party’s purpose is,” he said. 

“So, are we the best administrators? Well, that’s not going to exactly put us in power. It’s the scale of our delivery which is inadequate. We’re very good at delivering where we have the capacity to do so, but we are very poor at being able to stimulate and lead and inspire.”

Ed Davey

Graham Neale, chair of the Green Liberals, agreed. 

“We end up, unfortunately, being sort of just populist bureaucrats,” he said at the panel event.

“‘We can get more for your council tax than this group can, or we would spend it better than that group can…’ We just end up competing to see who can be the best bureaucrats. We’ve really got a series of disconnected ideas here.”

He accused the party of being “timid” on environmental policy, taxation, and its international stance, especially around Gaza.

“We didn’t reap any benefit from our international stance in the way that the Green Party did in Southwark and other places in London.”

Other urban Lib Dems continue to feel that the party remains disproportionately focused on former Conservative territory rather than trying to make progress in some of England’s biggest cities.

Northern Lib Dems in particular are dissatisfied that the party has not done enough to address what they see as a north-south imbalance. One Manchester councillor told PoliticsHome that they had recently invited Davey to an event in the city, but that the leader declined to attend: “He doesn’t care about Manchester.”

The acknowledgement that the lack of cut-through was an issue was probably the most significant first step

Other groups have gripes with the party’s approach. Young Liberals chair Will Tennison argued that the party’s focus on the European Union was misplaced when it comes to winning over younger voters. 

“They’re bored of it,” he said. “It went on too long. We’re ready to move on… The job market almost always comes out on top.”

Tennison, who sits on the party’s federal board, said the party is “aware that the messaging is not up to scratch”. 

“I don’t think they’ve come up with a solution to how to fix it, but I do think it’s really good that we’ve seen an increase in the number of people at HQ that are working in the digital space. So we’ve got more social media admins, we’ve got more people doing influencer stuff. Politics isn’t won on the BBC News anymore, and in the not too distant future, it might very well be won on TikTok.”

One MP said that the party’s problem lies less in the core policies themselves – fixing the social care system, repairing the UK’s relationship with Europe and electoral reform – but more in the communication of how they would actually directly improve people’s lives.

Earlier this year, PoliticsHome reported on a “strategy rethink” inside the party, amid frustration from some MPs about the lack of progress since the general election in breaking into new ground. 

The party has responded to criticisms by overhauling its communications operation, including the appointment of James Holt as political director. Holt previously served as the Liberal Democrats’ director of communications more than 10 years ago, and has returned to the UK in the last few months after working for Prince Harry and Meghan in the US.

“The acknowledgement that the lack of cut-through was an issue was probably the most significant first step,” one MP said.

“Now we’ve got people in place who should be able to help communicate and structure our vision. They won’t be able to do it overnight, but a year ago, there wasn’t even anyone working on it.”

The party has also hired content creators, reflecting a recognition that political communication is increasingly taking place away from traditional media.

Ed Davey

There is also a new effort to develop the intellectual infrastructure behind the party.

The Britain Project, a new think tank aiming to “convene and catalyse liberal thinking”, was launched at the conference. Davey welcomed its arrival, arguing that liberalism had lacked a dedicated Westminster think tank for too long.

“There’s been a gap in the market. There hasn’t been a liberal think tank for a long time,” he said.

“You look around Westminster and Whitehall, and there are lots of think tanks there that are supplying ideas for Labour, ideas for the Conservatives, ideas that they try to promote so that they can get policies for government. The fact that we haven’t had a think tank focused on liberalism, sharing our values, has been a real gap.”

But Davey also insisted that the organisation should not simply become a policy arm of the party.

“While we share those values, we need you to come up with ideas that I occasionally disagree with, because we need you to challenge not just me, but challenge the whole party.

“When you do come up with ideas – whether we agree with them or not – the fact that we can add them to our debate, that they can challenge us, challenge the party, is a really good thing, because that challenge, as we know, as liberals, makes those ideas better.”

If you are as close to power as we may be, you need to be serious about it

The think tank’s policy director, Lib Dem peer Lord Leunig, went further, saying his ambition was to become unpopular within his own party if that was what was required to improve its policymaking.

“My ambition is to be the least popular person in our party,” he said.

“But to be a good minister you actually have to have policies that work, and I can tell you that our party, just like all other parties… can be guilty of ‘convenientism’ – believing that what can be convenient is true – and I tell you that is not always the case.”

He later added: “We are not soft people. This is serious stuff. Because you know what? If you are as close to power as we may be, you need to be serious about it.”

Davey has hinted at a willingness to work with Labour. He has refused to completely rule out a coalition with the Conservatives, but suggested that a coalition with the Tory party in its current form under the leadership of Kemi Badenoch would be highly unlikely. One senior Lib Dem told PoliticsHome the party would never consider joining a government that wanted to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.

The MP suggested that, if coalition negotiations did eventually arise, the party should publicly identify three issues on which it would refuse to compromise: energy policy, Europe and electoral reform.

The Lib Dems feel confident that they will be a significant player come the next general election – whether it happens at the expected time or if Burnham calls an election early. 

However, their own activists and MPs are still embroiled in debates about what the party’s broader purpose should be, who it should speak to, and how it can translate a collection of familiar liberal causes into a proposition that voters across the country can understand.

The SLF panellists were asked to sum up what the Lib Dems were for in just a few words. Chris Bowers, coordinator of the Yorkists group, was the only panellist to offer an answer, which placed the Lib Dems in contrast with the other political parties on the ballot box.

“We’re better than this.”

 

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Politics Home | Lib Dems In “Fight Of Our lives” Against “Well-Funded Far Right”, Warns Ed Davey

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Lib Dems In 'Fight Of Our lives' Against 'Well-Funded Far Right', Warns Ed Davey

(Gary Roberts Photography / Alamy)


3 min read

Ed Davey has warned Liberal Democrats that they are part of a fight for the country’s future against an “extremely well-funded” modern-day “far-right”.

Addressing Lib Dem conference in Brighton on Tuesday, Davey said the party faces “the fight of our lives” against a “far-right movement that is given oxygen, and heat, and fuel by politicians and parties who claim to be serious contenders to lead our country”.

Davey’s speech came amid growing pressure from within his party to give the Lib Dems a more distinct political offering to voters – and to make clear what they stand for. In an essay published days before the conference, one of his MPs, Roz Savage, claimed the party was “struggling for relevance” and failing to paint a “coherent picture of the country we are trying to create”.

In a new policy announcement, Davey pledged that a future Lib Dem government would take hundreds of thousands of people out of the higher rate (40p) tax band by raising the threshold to £56,000.

He also announced that the party would raise the tax-free personal allowance from £12,570 to £15,000, saying this would take more than 2m of the lowest-paid workers out of income tax completely.

Davey said he would fund these tax cuts using the economic growth achieved through his policy of rejoining the European Union’s Single Market and Customs Union.

Amid growing concern about AI models going rogue and posing a potential threat to humanity, Davey called for “a global treaty to press pause on super-intelligent AI now, before it’s too late”.

He compared the risks posed to civilisation by increasingly sophisticated AI models to climate change and nuclear weapons, telling the conference that the human species was “not just the fight of our lives” but engaged in a “fight for life itself”.

Throughout his speech, Davey sought to frame the Lib Dems as an opposing force to Reform UK, and repeatedly contrasted his party’s “community politics” with what he described as the divisive politics of Nigel Farage’s party.

“When that person you disagree with stops being just another little box on your social media feed, and becomes a human being with a face, a home and a life – that’s when we make progress,” he told the conference.

“With liberal community politics, we can answer people’s hopelessness and powerlessness. Not with a slogan, not with a scapegoat, but with hard work.”

One Lib Dem MP seated behind Davey during the speech told PoliticsHome it was “probably his best to date”, as he “articulated what liberalism means” alongside a “bold policy announcement”.

But another MP said that while the proposed tax cuts were welcome: “There’s just so much more we have to say. What people are looking for is not a cautious step-by-step approach to the next election, and the manifesto, but a sense of what it might be like to live in this future Britain, not just what we might have in our pockets.”

 

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Politics Home Article | Appoint Homelessness Tsar To Help Eradicate Rough Sleeping, PM Told

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Appoint Homelessness Tsar To Help Eradicate Rough Sleeping, PM Told


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Andy Burnham should appoint a homelessness tsar to help with his pledge to end rough sleeping, according to the head of a leading homelessness charity.

Matt Downie, chief executive of Crisis, told PoliticsHome that the Prime Minister needs someone who “knocks heads together” across Whitehall and improves coordination inside and outside government when it comes to tackling homelessness.

Burnham pledged to end rough sleeping in the UK when he first entered No 10 after replacing Keir Starmer in July.

Last month, he announced that emergency accommodation will be made available to ensure that all rough sleepers have somewhere safe to live by Christmas.

“We did it in the pandemic. We can do it again. But it needs all of us,” the PM said.

“Government will put the money in. But I’m asking leaders in communities and sectors across society to play their part locally too. Let’s get people out the cold. And let’s bring back hope.”

Rough sleeping hit record highs at the start of 2026, with 4,793 people recorded as sleeping rough on a single night in autumn in 2025, according to government figures. 

Speaking to PoliticsHome ahead of Labour conference getting underway in Liverpool later this week, Downie described the Prime Minister’s pledge to eradicate homelessness as “the biggest moment” for his sector in decades and “properly special”.

“I can tell you that, having tried for many years to get people in the very heart of government, particularly in No 10, to care about this issue, it’s amazing to see large numbers of people now doing everything they can,” he said.

However, he added that the Labour government could take additional steps to boost its chances of success, including appointing a “tsar or commissioner”.

“Someone that knocks heads together across government, that says: ‘By the way, NHS, you’re discharging people onto the streets from A&Es. Stop it’,” said Downie. 

“[Someone] who bangs heads together, gets organisations in our sector, in local government, housing associations to do the right thing. That costs nothing, and they can just do it today.”

The charity head said that the issue of people falling into homelessness when discharged from hospitals and prisons is “outrageous”, but ultimately “solvable”.

But he stressed that it’s “not just possible” to achieve the PM’s pledge without more housing, particularly housing specifically earmarked for people who are already homeless.

It’s not about spending more money, but “organising ourselves better”, Downie said, explaining that homeless people should be guaranteed a “good chunk” of properties built as part of the government’s £38bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme.

Crisis is also calling for Burnham and Chancellor John Healey to unfreeze the Local Housing Allowance (LHA) at the Budget next month, describing it as “the number one thing the government could do right now to send the numbers in the right direction”.

LHA limits how much Universal Credit is paid to private renters. It is meant to cover the cheapest 30 per cent of private sector rents in each area, with claimants whose rent is higher paying the shortfall themselves. However, a two-year freeze to its cash value by the Labour government has led to a real-terms cut because actual rents have risen in that time.

As a result, the support is now worth less than the 10th percentile of local rents in some areas, with many councils warning that the freeze is making rent increasingly unaffordable and pushing people into homelessness.

Some Tory-run councils support ending the freeze, despite party leader Kemi Badenoch’s pledge to further reduce LHA.

Downie also wants to see the PM act on his past support for Housing First: “the single most exciting thing he said on homelessness”.

The scheme works on seven core principles, including the right to a home; giving individuals control over the type and location of their housing; and a focus on harm reduction, with pilots in Manchester, Birmingham and Liverpool widely seen as successful.

Labour considered including the nationwide roll-out of Housing First in its 2024 election manifesto, but did not go ahead with it. Burnham previously told PoliticsHome that the scheme had been key to his success in reducing rough sleeping numbers in Manchester.

A Housing, Communities and Local Government spokesperson told PoliticsHome:  “We welcome the vital work that Crisis do to support people experiencing homelessness. The PM has made clear his determination to end rough sleeping at the earliest opportunity and to make sure the whole of government and society works together to fix this problem.

“This is backed by a National Plan to End Homelessness – which sets out how public services must work together to tackle this complex issue, alongside a record investment of over £4bn to help thousands of people leave the streets behind, move into secure homes and get the support they need to rebuild their lives.”

 

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