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NBA proposes new ‘3-2-1’ draft lottery system, sources say. Here’s how it works

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The NBA’s pursuit of an effective anti-tanking strategy took a significant step forward on Tuesday when league officials presented an updated draft lottery reform proposal — deemed the “3-2-1” system — to all 30 teams in a virtual general manager’s meeting.

The proposal, which was obtained by The Athletic and would go into effect for the 2027 draft if approved, aims to create an environment that heavily incentivizes teams at the bottom end of the standings to win their way up the ranks as a way of improving their lottery odds. The lottery would expand from 14 teams to 16 in this system, with lottery balls drawn for all 16 qualifying teams. Here’s what would determine how many balls each team gets, as well as other rules that are part of the pitch.

  • Three balls (8.1 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, seven teams in all): The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs or Play-In Tournament but avoided finishing with one of the three worst records.
  • Two balls (5.4 percent chance, seven teams): Teams that finished in the bottom three, and were thus subject to a “draft relegation” provision in which they are penalized by losing one lottery ball (going from three to two). In an attempt to create a floor for how far these teams might fall, the “draft relegated” teams would pick no lower than 12th, whereas all other lottery-eligible teams could fall as far as the 16th pick. The ninth and 10th Play-In seeds in each conference would also receive two lottery balls each.
  • One ball (2.7 percent chance, two teams): The losers of the Play-In games between the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference would receive just one lottery ball.

The proposal also includes several rules that, if approved, would further reduce a team’s ability to tank its way into better draft odds while also giving the league much greater leeway to punish would-be offenders.

  • No team would be able to win the top pick in consecutive years or be able to win three consecutive top-five picks.
  • Teams would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward.
  • The proposal includes a sunset provision, with the new system expiring following the 2029 draft and requiring an affirmative vote of the Board of Governors to either continue with the system or transition to a new one.
  • Under the proposal, the league would have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking by having the option to reduce teams’ lottery odds and/or modify teams’ draft positions.

With an owner’s vote on draft lottery reform looming at a Board of Governors meeting on May 28, and commissioner Adam Silver vowing to make changes that restore competitive integrity to the game, this marks the first time the league’s stakeholders have elevated one specific proposal, as opposed to several, as they move closer to firming up the final version. The debate about this offering, which league sources say is a combination of the three that were proposed during the last general managers’ meeting on Feb. 21, is now expected to continue during the final stages of the process.

Per league sources, this latest proposal was well received by the majority of the league’s GMs. There was, the sources say, a belief from some GMs in the meeting that the bottom-three teams should be assured at least a top-10 pick, as opposed to top 12, and that this current structure in the proposal is too punitive. There was also a sense from some that the seventh and eighth seeds should be treated the same, receiving one ball each regardless of who wins that Play-In game. Those sorts of specifics will continue to be hashed out in the weeks ahead.

In the days leading up to this latest meeting, league officials and general managers alike had indicated that Option No. 1 from the previous GM’s meeting — an 18-team lottery system in which the bottom 10 teams would all have an 8 percent chance at the top pick — was widely seen as the heavy front-runner. But with the NBA’s executive vice president of strategy and analytics Evan Wasch leading the way, league sources say the decision was made to formulate a plan that took components from all three of the previous proposals. As has been the case throughout this process, changes could still be made to the proposal ahead of the Board of Governors meeting.

Silver and his staff have made it a priority for this process to be collaborative, as evidenced by the Tuesday meeting with general managers that was added to the schedule for the purpose of making this pitch. The league’s competition committee, which includes select general managers, coaches and players and typically heads these sorts of exercises, has also played an integral role in the process.

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Ulster 26-26 Munster: Ulster fight back to earn thrilling URC draw in Belfast

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Ulster: McIlroy; Baloucoune, Benson, McCloskey, Stockdale; Murphy, Doak; O’Sullivan, Stewart (capt), Knox, Donnell, Snyman, Izuchukwu, Timoney, Augustus.

Replacements: Walker, O’Toole, McAllister, McNabney, McCann, Devine, Flannery, Mullins.

Yellow cards:

Munster: O’Connor; McCarthy, Nankivell, Kelly, O’Brien; Hanrahan, Casey; Loughman, Van der Merwe, Brookes; O’Connell, Beirne (capt); O’Donoghue, Kendellen, Coombes.

Replacements: Clein, Wycherley, Aungier, Foy, Gleeson, O’Donovan, O’Shea, Hodnett.

Referee: Craig Evans (WRU)

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‘Reminds me of Muller’ – Naderi proving worth in Rangers revival

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Naderi now has three goals in his past two league games, having scored the winner in Rangers’ 1-0 league win away to Celtic before the break.

That alone elevated his status among an initially sceptical support who had watched the 23-year-old struggle to make an impact after singing from German third-tier side Hansa Rostock in February.

Just one league goal – and two in a League Cup trouncing of Queen’s Park – followed last season, with observers unconvinced he had the attributes to be a starting striker at the club.

Such assessments seem to have dissipated as he has surged to the fore in the absence of injured team-mates Lawrence Shankland and Youssef Chermiti.

Six goals and three assists, often key interventions, have elevated his status as he adds end product to his physical prowess.

A crucial assist in the late win over St Mirren when Bojan Miovski scored a vital winner was notable.

Naderi has netted winners against Motherwell and Celtic and his two goals against Kilmarnock proved decisive.

His manager agrees Naderi, who made his Czech Republic debut last week, has stepped up to the plate for Rangers at a good time.

“Yes, and fair play to him,” McInnes said. “He’s always such an honest boy, he’s willing to put defenders under pressure.

“I’ve always felt as a striker that if the ball goes in the box, he’ll score his goals. He’s not the type of striker that creates a lot for himself, so he needs that service.

“If we put the ball in the box, as we did in the first half, then he looks a threat.

“He’s had such a good few weeks. Everybody’s so pleased for him. We need someone who would regularly be the goalscorer here at the club.”

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10-man Spurs grab a draw but who got 1/10 – Ratings for Man Utd v Spurs

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Manchester United XI:

Senne Lammens: Made a major early error that could have had disastrous consequences but the Belgian recovered to make the save from Dominic Solanke. Mis-control shortly afterwards showed more signs of nerves and pass straight out of play summed up United’s first half hour. Might have done better for equaliser. 5

Leny Yoro (off 59, Dalot): Given a start after making France debut and excellent tackle to deny Jan Paul van Hecke a clear sight at goal. Decent effort. 7

Harry Maguire: Usual solid presence at the heart of the home defence but no chance to threaten at the other end and fact he did try a shot from 30 yards suggested lack . 7

Lisandro Martinez: Partnership with Maguire a plus point for Man Utd but was totally outmuscled by Solanke for Spurs’ equaliser. 6

Luke Shaw: One of the home side’s more consistent performers and got forward to force a corner early in the second period and made a vital intervention at the other end. Lucky to avoid red card for his reactionary shove on Rodrigo Bentancur? 6

Kobbie Mainoo: Caught in possession on too many occasions, even if the passes he was receiving inside his own half were ill-advised. Tried to get on the ball in deep lying midfield role. Excellent block to deny Savio. 7

Youri Tielemans (off 59, Baleba): Lucky to get away with being robbed by Savio deep in the United half due to debatable free-kick but calm in heading the ball back to Lammens to relieve pressure on home goal. 6

Amad Diallo (off 59, Zirkzee): Took a long time to get into the game on his first appearance of the season but eventually had home side’s first shot. 6

Bruno Fernandes: Shadow of the player who deservedly won all the player of the year awards last season. Didn’t shoot when had the chance suggests confidence levels have dipped. 5

Matheus Cunha: Reaction to negativity from the stands shows he cares but, like many, yet to reach last term’s levels. Provided the pass for Mbuemo’s goal. 6

Bryan Mbeumo: Didn’t have enough support to be effective in the lead striking role but led one counter and turned smartly to score United’s goal. 8.

Subs:

Diogo Dalot (on 59, Yoro): Nearly set up Bruno Fernandes with cross from the right. 5

Carlos Baleba (on 59, Tielemans): Introduction injected life into home fans and made plenty of tackles. 5

Joshua Zirkzee (on 59, Amad): Quickly into action to force a corner and let Tottenham know he was there. 6

Ayden Heaven (on 90, Shaw). 5

Marcus Rashford (on 90, Cunha). 5

Subs not used: Karl Darlow, Mason Mount, Andrey Santos, Shea Lacey.

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