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Southampton early favourites for Championship play-off final against Hull City

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The Championship play-off final has long been labelled the richest game in football and this year’s showdown between Hull City and Southampton on May 23 is no different, with promotion to the Premier League potentially worth around £200million.

The market already has a firm favourite.

Southampton are 17/20 to secure promotion and 8/11 to win in 90 minutes after extending their unbeaten league run with a dramatic extra-time semi-final victory over Middlesbrough.

Shea Charles’ late cross-shot settled a tie that had already been simmering, due to an ongoing investigation into allegations a Southampton analyst filmed the opposition’s training sessions before the game.

Pending the fallout from that saga, Southampton would arrive at Wembley with momentum, experience and the weight of expectation. The south-coast side also know what it takes to win at this stage, after beating Leeds United in the 2024 play-off final.

Hull, by contrast, are the outsiders at 18/5 for promotion and 16/5 to win inside 90 minutes, but that may suit them perfectly.

They only sealed their play-off place on the final day after overtaking Wrexham, before growing into their semi-final against Millwall and winning 2-0 away from home thanks to goals from substitutes Mohamed Belloumi and Joe Gelhardt.

The pricing suggests bookmakers respect Hull’s threat, even if Southampton are favourites. A draw after 90 minutes is 15/8, while under 2.5 goals is heavily favoured at 1/2.

It points towards a tense final and Championship play-off finals have often been decided by moments. Sunderland beat Sheffield United 2-1 with a late goal in the 2025 final and the early markets imply another tight affair this season.

Southampton’s control and consistency across the second half of the season understandably give them an edge, but Hull’s late surge means they arrive with freedom and less external pressure.

That combination could make Wembley unpredictable, despite Southampton’s pedigree, and leave Hull believing another upset remains entirely possible.

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A tense World War I film by Sam Mendes starring George MacKay

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During the First World War, two soldiers must cross no-man’s-land to deliver a message.

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FA Youth Cup final: Man City v Man Utd – who are the players to watch?

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The progress of Darren Fletcher’s side has not been smooth. Narrow home victories over Peterborough, Derby – in extra time – and Sunderland, plus a comfortable away win at Oxford, earned a semi-final against Crystal Palace, when they also needed extra time to get through, thanks to a Chido Obi goal eight minutes from time.

Chido is one of United’s key men. The Denmark youth international made eight first-team appearances last season but has only appeared on the bench once this term. Tall and quick, with an eye for goal, United have been developing other aspects of his game. He will operate at the head of the visitors’ attack and try to pin City’s defence back.

Gabriel is one of the most talked about young players in England. The 15-year-old Londoner was crowned under-18 player of the year by the Premier League this week. He operates in the number 10 slot and tries to get on the ball as much as possible. He has exceptional balance and close control, is quick and represents a major goal threat.

Jim Thwaites was on the first-team bench at Chelsea recently. A number 10 at younger levels, Thwaites has been used in deeper positions this season. He has a fabulous passing range, is quick and has plenty of stamina. Also, he can be lethal at free-kicks, as City found to their cost when United won the last league meeting between the sides in February.

Skipper Dan Armer is a key man in central defence, Junior Brown and Noah Ajayi are dangers out wide and goalkeeper Cameron Byrne-Hughes has had a solid season.

Asked if there was extra motivation, with the final being against City, midfielder Rafe McCormack said: “100%.”

He added: “It’s obviously a big occasion, but we need to focus on ourselves and what we can do.

“It would have been a bonus to play in the first-team stadium, but to us it doesn’t matter. We’re just focusing on trying to win the trophy.”

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How to watch Mariners vs. Astros: TV channel and streaming options for May 14

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The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners at 2:10 p.m. ET on Thursday. Luis Castillo (0-4, 6.57 ERA) gets the start for the Mariners, who are 21-23 this season and third in the AL West. Mike Burrows (2-4, 5.04 ERA) is starting for the Astros, who are 17-27 and fourth in the AL West.

How to watch Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros

  • Venue: Daikin Park
  • Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
  • Streaming: Fubo (Stream now)
  • TV: SCHN and Mariners.TV

Mariners vs. Astros odds

Odds provided by BetMGM.

Injury reports

Mariners

Will Wilson: 10 Day IL (Thumb), Victor Robles: 10 Day IL (Pectoral), Patrick Wisdom: 10 Day IL (Oblique), Gabe Speier: 15 Day IL (Shoulder inflammation), Matt Brash: 15 Day IL (Lat), Logan Evans: 60 Day IL (Arm), Carlos Vargas: 60 Day IL (Lat), Miles Mastrobuoni: 60 Day IL (Calf), Cal Raleigh: day-to-day (Side)

Astros

Joey Loperfido: 10 Day IL (Quadricep), Carlos Correa: 10 Day IL (Ankle), Jake Meyers: 10 Day IL (Oblique), Taylor Trammell: 10 Day IL (Groin), Jeremy Pena: 10 Day IL (Knee), Yainer Diaz: 10 Day IL (Abdominal), Nate Pearson: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Bennett Sousa: 15 Day IL (Elbow), Hayden Wesneski: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Hunter Brown: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Ronel Blanco: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Brandon Walter: 60 Day IL (Elbow), Cristian Javier: 60 Day IL (Shoulder), Josh Hader: 60 Day IL (Biceps)

Stats to know

  • Seattle’s Randy Arozarena is slashing .306/.389/.463 this season with four home runs, 16 RBIs and an OPS of .852. He has a 23.8% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate in 185 plate appearances, and he has scored 31 total runs. Arozarena has recorded 11 steals on 13 attempts.
  • In 192 plate appearances, Julio Rodríguez has slashed .269/.333/.440 this season. He has hit seven long balls and driven in 20 runs with a strikeout rate of 23.4% and a walk rate of 7.8%. He has three stolen bases on five attempts. He has come around to score 22 times.
  • Houston’s Yordan Alvarez is slashing .309/.418/.611 this season with 13 home runs (6th in MLB), 29 RBIs (10th in MLB) and an OPS of 1.029 (3rd in MLB). He has a 16% strikeout rate and a 13.9% walk rate in 194 plate appearances, and he has scored 27 total runs.
  • In 179 plate appearances, Christian Walker has posted a 19% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate while slashing .275/.346/.525 with 10 home runs (17th in MLB), 29 RBIs (10th in MLB) and 25 runs scored.

This watch guide was created using technology provided by Data Skrive.

Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

Photo: Jamie Squire, Ishika Samant, Scott Taetsch, Alika Jenner / Getty Images

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