The only remaining question is whether Tarik Skubal can establish he is healthy. His team, the Detroit Tigers, is on the verge of achieving the near-impossible – falling out of contention not just in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, but also in an underwhelming American League with six playoff spots available.

Skubal, recovering from an innovative new surgery to remove a loose body from his left elbow, is scheduled to throw another simulated game Monday. If he continues his rapid progress, he will be back sometime in the next few weeks, maybe sooner. And if the Tigers decide to trade him, they likely will hold off as long as possible before the Aug. 3 deadline, allowing demand to build and Skubal to demonstrate he is back to his two-time Cy Young form.

Still, a growing belief exists within the industry that Skubal is a goner. And if NanoNeedle surgery indeed repaired his elbow with minimal disruption, the frenzy to acquire him might even top what we saw with Juan Soto in 2022 or any other July auction in recent memory.

Every contender will at least check in – yes, even the spendaholic, back-to-back World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, who might view the deadline as something close to last call. The next collective bargaining agreement will include either a salary cap, closing the sport’s Free Spending Saloon, or other payroll restrictions that would have a similarly sobering effect.

The Tigers, 4-21 since learning Skubal would need surgery, are 16 games under .500, the worst team in the AL. They are 11.5 games out in the Central, seven games back in the wild-card race. And they have 14 players, including 10 pitchers, on the injured list, tied with the Dodgers for the most in the majors.

Right fielder Kerry Carpenter (shoulder) returned as a DH on Sunday, and second baseman Gleyber Torres (oblique) should not be far behind, potentially sparking the offense. Skubal, whenever he rejoins the team, obviously should provide a jolt.

So for now, the Tigers cling to faint hope, recalling their incredible run in the final two months of 2024. Yes, it was just two years ago when they earned a postseason berth after falling behind by 10 games, the largest deficit any team has overcome under the current playoff format, which began in 2022.

Yet, even that Tigers club was never more than nine games under .500. This Tigers club, seven games worse than that, is all but buried. No team this many games under .500 has made the playoffs under the current format, according to STATS Perform.

Only one team in AL/NL history, the 1914 Boston “Miracle” Braves, reached the postseason after going 16 games under .500. Far more playoff spots are available now than there were then, when each eight-team league sent just one team to the postseason, which then consisted only of the World Series. Such is the current state of the AL, a sub-.500 club, the Toronto Blue Jays, holds the league’s sixth and final postseason berth.

One rival executive, granted anonymity for his candor, spoke from experience about the difficulty of climbing out of a crater as massive as the Tigers’.

“Once you start your ascent, you can never stop it. You’re done with your slumps,” he said.

The Tigers, after constructing a franchise-record $217 million payroll, will not want to concede. Both their offense and defense, however, rank among the worst in the majors. To win even 85 games, they would need to go 63-39 the rest of the way.

If the Tigers keep Skubal, then make him a qualifying offer and lose him as a free agent, they will receive only a draft pick after the first round as compensation. A trade would yield greater projected value, though the return would be depressed by three factors: Skubal’s status as a rental, the remaining portion of his $32 million salary he is owed and his lack of eligibility for a qualifying offer as a player traded in the middle of a season.

Still, it’s Tarik Skubal. And the griping from rival executives about dealing with Scott Harris, the Tigers’ notoriously exacting president of baseball operations, would be as entertaining as the Skubal sweepstakes themselves.

The Dodgers wouldn’t figure to have a need for another high-priced ace. Blake Snell is recovering from the same surgery as Skubal. Tyler Glasnow is only dealing with lower back spasms. River Ryan has a 29-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Triple A. And, lest anyone forget, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hates overpaying at the deadline.

The Dodgers’ farm system, however, is second only to Milwaukee’s, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law. Heaven knows how healthy their rotation will be in two weeks, much less two months. And what’s another $10 million or so to add to the payroll, plus another $11 million or so in luxury-tax penalties?

The Dodgers, though, represent just one possibility.

San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller is probably calling around already, trying to gather additional prospects for a run at Skubal. The Philadelphia Phillies already have a dynamic 1-2 in Cristopher Sánchez and Zack Wheeler, but would anyone seriously expect the ultra-competitive duo of owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to learn of Skubal’s availability and say, “Nah, we’re good?”

The same would apply to the New York Yankees, another team currently deep in starters. In Atlanta, Skubal could join Chris Sale, Bryce Elder and Spencer Strider to give the Braves a hammer to potentially overtake the Dodgers. Perhaps no contenders need Skubal more than the Chicago Cubs, who lack a No. 1 without Justin Steele and Cade Horton, and Toronto Blue Jays, who currently have an entire rotation on the IL.

On it goes.

The Baltimore Orioles’ head of baseball ops, Mike Elias, might be concerned enough about his job to push for Skubal. Splurging for a rental is not the Brewers’ style, but they have the system to put together a terrifying trio of Skubal, Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison. The Tampa Bay Rays, the one small-market team that routinely plays on big names, currently lead the AL East. Perhaps new ownership would be tempted to make a splash.

The risk of acquiring Skubal would be considerable. He could get hurt. The team that acquires him could scuffle. So many front offices are conservative. The combined acquisition cost in dollars and prospects likely would scare off a number of suitors.

It would be one of those deals where a team couldn’t miss. It also would be one where the impact might rival the transformative effect CC Sabathia had on the Brewers in 2008.

The deadline hinges on how well Skubal recovers. The chances of the Tigers recovering get smaller by the day.

We’re about to party like it’s 1999.

With their Game 7 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night, the San Antonio Spurs locked in a NBA Finals rematch from the lockout-shortened 1999 season, pitting the Spurs against the New York Knicks. While a No. 2 seed from one conference playing a No. 3 seed from the other doesn’t seem like a wild upset, only two of the 33 members of The Athletic’s NBA staff predicted the matchup before the playoffs started.

Accordingly, we’re giving Eric Koreen and Eric Nehm the floor to explain how and why they saw this coming.

Koreen: Saturday was a landmark night for handsome geniuses named Eric, Eric. With the Spurs’ win, we correctly predicted the two teams competing in the NBA Finals, unlike all of our colleagues. Should we hang a banner halfway between Toronto and Milwaukee? Apparently that would be in Waverly, Mich.

We did it, so we really deserve to take our victory lap, because it’s not like either of us picked the Rockets (Editor’s note: Koreen did) or the Raptors (Editor’s note: Nehm did) to win their first-round series. No, we were perfect.

I want to start with the Eastern Conference, simply because that seemed like the more straightforward of the two picks to me, with the predictions of our peers backing that up: The Knicks received the second-most votes to win the conference, behind only the Boston Celtics, while the Spurs were third out West, behind Oklahoma City and the Denver Nuggets. What made you lean toward the Knicks to come out of the East? Like me, did you also find that prediction easier to make than taking the Spurs to represent the West?

Nehm: You’re correct. I thought the Eastern Conference was easier to pick than the Western Conference, but that had just as much to do with the Knicks as it had to do with the rest of the conference.

The Knicks, in my opinion, had the most talent of any team in the East heading into the playoffs. Jalen Brunson might not be an MVP candidate, but he has been a second-team All-NBA player each of the last three seasons and the undisputed leader of the Knicks since joining the team in 2022. OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns are all great players who can do a little bit of everything and step up on any given night. And new head coach Mike Brown has maximized the contributions from the rest of the roster in a way that Tom Thibodeau could not during his five-year tenure in New York.

When I looked at the rest of the conference, I had too many questions. Detroit had never been through the rigors of a postseason run. Boston had a spectacular regular season, but the Celtics were trying to integrate Jayson Tatum as he made his return from a torn Achilles as they were getting ready for the playoffs. Cleveland had James Harden. And with Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo both injured and out of the playoffs, the rest of the conference didn’t have any championship equity. So, it had to be the Knicks.

What did you see in the Knicks?

Koreen: To me, there were only two teams that I considered in the East: Boston and New York. The Celtics’ close to the season, when Tatum returned from his injury and looked healthy, gave me pause. They looked excellent. Still, the uncertainty over his short-term health made me stick with my preseason prediction for the conference winner — the Knicks.

It was funny hearing Knicks fans and observers talk about their season. It was full of angst, and I get it: They’re the Knicks; bad things tend to happen to them. They had some real issues surrounding the constitution of their starting lineup, and the performance of Bridges in particular.

They were healthy, though, and they were solid in the macro sense. They ranked fourth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defense. That screams championship contender. My confidence in the Knicks was helped by their season series against the team I cover, the Toronto Raptors, as they swept them 5-0, never winning by fewer than 16 points.

I wonder if some of the doubt for the Knicks came from the intense coverage of the team, and the zeroing in on their weaknesses. For obvious reasons, the Knicks are covered with exceptional depth, and that inevitably results in a zoomed-in view of their flaws. I don’t know how you felt when the Bucks won the title, but in 2019, I picked the Raptors to lose to both Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference finals and to Golden State in the finals because their weaknesses loomed larger than their strengths in my mind over the course of the year. At least for me, failure lingers longer and more strongly than success.

We can both agree that picking the Spurs in the Western Conference was the braver pre-playoffs pick. Why did you land on them?

Nehm: The West was much more difficult to try to predict because the Spurs and Thunder were both so good this season. Ultimately, though, I went with the Spurs for a few reasons.

Repeating is incredibly difficult. I covered the Bucks’ attempt to do it in 2021-22. They put together a great season, and Antetokounmpo was at the peak of his powers. But Khris Middleton suffered an injury in the first round and couldn’t get back. In the end, the Bucks didn’t have enough and lost to the Celtics in the second round.

I had no idea that Jalen Williams would end up missing nearly the entire postseason, but he had struggled with his hamstring all season long. These are just the kinds of things that happen to teams that attempt to repeat. It’s just so much basketball in a short period of time, and it wears on even the deepest teams.

On top of that, the Spurs are a spectacular team that matched up well against the Thunder. I thought their perimeter defenders were overlooked this season because of Wembanyama’s brilliance. I was disappointed to see Stephon Castle end up a few votes short of making an All-Defensive team because I thought he was one of the most disruptive perimeter defenders in the NBA. And their perimeter defenders showed all of that in their victory over the Thunder.

Add in Wembanyama’s individual greatness and growth, as well as his desire to prove himself on the biggest stages, and it felt like they were the team that could topple the Thunder in the West.

How did you come to view the Spurs as the team that would represent the Western Conference in the NBA Finals?

Koreen: I didn’t trust Denver’s defensive infrastructure with Aaron Gordon never fully healthy, so, to me, the West was also a two-team proposition. The Thunder were the more conventional choice. I had trouble picking against them.

There was something about the nature of the season series that made me consider it more than I usually would with regular-season games — I generally don’t care about the season series at all, frankly. The Spurs won four out of five games against the Thunder, with Wembanyama’s availability all over the place. As you mentioned, the layers to the defense that the Spurs could use against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander felt real and repeatable. I didn’t see him struggling as much as he did in the series, before the MVP delivered a brilliant Game 7, but his 58.9 percent true shooting against the Spurs in the regular season didn’t seem like a fluke to me. That was the lowest mark he had against any Western Conference team this year.

More than that, however, I found myself coming back to one question: If we are going to continue to say that Wembanyama is unlike anyone we have ever seen before — and he is — why should his team have to conform to the conventional wisdom that a team has to lose on a big stage before it can win there? The guy is nicknamed The Alien. I revere Jordan and LeBron as much as the next person, and we know how long they had to wait to break through. But they lived in an era of dynasties. In a league that has been defined by parity since the dissolution of the Durant/Curry Warriors, why should Wembanyama have had to wait, especially if the Thunder were fatigued and not fully healthy?

Now, I believe we both picked the Spurs to win the title before the playoffs, not giving a darn about the result of the NBA Cup. Has anything about how either team is playing, who is healthy or just the vibes changed how you’re feeling about who’s going to lift the Larry O’B?

Nehm: After a rough start to their first-round series against the Hawks, the Knicks have played even better than I expected in the postseason. They’ve used Towns as a facilitator and passer to create more offense, and that has given their offensive attack greater balance around Brunson. This is the best that they’ve played together as a group and, unfortunately, I don’t know if that’s going to matter.

The Spurs’ defense is just too good. Brunson is a different player than Gilgeous-Alexander, but the Spurs’ perimeter defenders should be able to make it tougher on him than anyone the Knicks have faced in the Eastern Conference. Josh Hart will give Wembanyama someone to play off of defensively and further muck things up for the Knicks.

San Antonio is still a young team, so it could stumble in this series, but I’m not interested in changing my prediction. I’ll stick with the Spurs.

Koreen: Full disclosure: When I submitted my prediction for our finals preview, I stuck with the Spurs, who I had winning in seven games. But it didn’t sit right with me then, and it still doesn’t. I’m taking the Knicks in 7.

It makes me itchy to go against the team with the best player, especially when he is guaranteed to be outrageously impactful on one end of the court every night. But I think Anunoby is as good a candidate as anybody to give Wembanyama a hard time as a primary defender. Obviously, Wemby will be able to shoot over Anunoby, but going through him or by him will be difficult, allowing New York to not help quite as much as many teams.

I think that could make the difference in a series I think should be very close. They have enough offensive options playing at high levels that Brunson can be a good version of himself, and that might be enough, not having to access his peak performance against the best rim protector in the world. I have enough questions about DeAaron Fox’s health, Castle’s decision-making and their just OK shooting that I’ll take New York, albeit with plenty of hesitation.

And then I’m not picking against Wemby for, like, a decade.

James Milner, the Premier League record appearance-holder, has announced his retirement at the age of 40 after a 24-year playing career.

Milner had been offered another year’s contract by Brighton & Hove Albion, but he has decided to call it a day after breaking Gareth Barry’s appearances record with his 654th outing in the top flight in a 2-0 win at Brentford in February.

Milner, who has spent the last three years with Brighton, made his debut for Leeds United at 16 in November 2002, making him the second-youngest player to play in the Premier League at the time.

Posting on his Instagram account, Milner said: “After 24 seasons in the Premier League it feels like the right time to bring an end to my playing career.

“From making my debut for Leeds United, who I supported growing up, at the age of 16 and becoming the Premier League’s youngest scorer, I could never have dreamed of the journey I’ve been on, right through to not being able to lift my foot last year and then coming back to be part of Brighton qualifying for Europe for the second time in their history at the age of 40.”

As well as Leeds and Brighton, Milner also represented Newcastle United, Aston Villa, Manchester City and Liverpool, and spent a month on loan at Swindon Town from Elland Road. He won three league titles, in 2011–12 and 2013–14 with City, and in 2019-20 with Liverpool.

He also helped Liverpool to win the 2019 Champions League, and won the FA Cup and two League Cups.

“Every club has played a huge role in my life and career, and I want to thank everyone involved — the owners, staff, coaches, teammates and supporters who welcomed me and helped me along the way,” Milner’s post added.

“I’ve been fortunate enough to experience some unforgettable moments, from fighting for survival to winning trophies, playing in Europe, and representing England at two European Championships and two World Cups. But more than anything, it’s the people and friendships I’ve made throughout the game that I’ll cherish forever.”

Milner made his England debut while at Villa in 2009 and went on to win 61 caps in total, featuring in the World Cup in 2010 and 2014, and the European Championship in 2012 and 2016.

“I leave the game with immense pride, gratitude and memories that will stay with me for the rest of my life,” he added. “Football has given me far more than I could ever have imagined, and I will always be thankful for the opportunities it provided. Thank you to everyone who has been part of the journey.”

Fabian Hurzeler, the Brighton head coach, said of Milner: “James is an unbelievable leader, unbelievable person unbelievable role model, not only for me but for every person in this club, the young players, the experienced players, every staff member. You are the definition of intensity. You are the definition of great standards, of pushing the limits every day.

“Your achievements are incredible. For me they are no surprise, because seeing you working hard every day is just incredible and working with you was even more impressive. I want to say thankyou for everything you did for this club, everything you did for me. I will never forget your support and help in tough moments. I will never forget your intensity, your energy and your demands on the pitch.

“I hope that you can enjoy the time after Brighton. I hope that you can stay like you are. We will definitely stay in touch. I wish you and your family all the best.”

‘A blow for Brighton’

Analysis

Milner’s announcement has dashed Brighton’s hopes of retaining his services for their Europa League Conference campaign next season after finishing eighth in the top flight.

Head coach Hurzeler leans heavily on a group of senior professionals to guide an essentially young squad. That group has already been trimmed by the departures of Solly March and Adam Webster, together with the anticipated exit of Joel Veltman.

Losing the vast top level experience of Milner is a blow, but it is understandable that he has decided the time is right to hang up his boots. Complications after knee surgery last season ruled him out for nine months. He was unable to lift his foot properly and feared not being able to walk properly, yet alone play football again. His involvement since then at Brighton has been a bonus.

Injury issues limited him to four further appearances after breaking Barry’s record at Brentford. He was in the starting line-up and lasted 59 minutes in Brighton’s 3-0 defeat at home to Manchester United on the final day of the season, the last of 658 Premier League appearances overall in a glittering career.