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Orbital Data Centers: Why the Hype Outpaces Reality

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The lowest-cost place to put AI will be in space, and that will be true within two years, maybe three at the latest,” SpaceX founder Elon Musk told the World Economic Forum in Davos this past January, as his company was preparing to go public.

Later that month, SpaceX filed an application with the Federal Communications Commission for an orbital data center constellation of up to 1 million satellites in low Earth orbit, 500 to 2,000 kilometers above Earth. And just three days before the IPO, he discussed some initial design specifications for a new AI-1 satellite data center in a video interview.

Musk is prone to hyperbole when it comes to timelines. Full self-driving cars by 2017. First human mission to Mars in 2024. Ten thousand Optimus humanoid robots by the end of 2025. Et cetera. For orbital data centers, which he says will be a cost-effective alternative to terrestrial data centers within three years, the math won’t make sense for several years, if ever.

Consider this: There are roughly 14,500 active satellites in orbit. Musk’s Starlink constellation accounts for about two thirds of those. Both the launch cadences and satellite-manufacturing capacity would have to scale up astronomically to deploy a million orbital data center satellites.

For context, there have been roughly 7,000 orbital launches in all of human history. To loft 1 million satellites into low Earth orbit on SpaceX’s Starship, which is designed to carry up to 60 satellites per vehicle, would require 16,666 launches exclusively devoted to satellite deployments. Considering that SpaceX launched a record 165 orbital missions in 2025, even at 10 times that cadence, it would take a decade. And how long would it take to build 1 million satellites, given Starlink’s current pace of around 4,000 per year and a generous tenfold increase in capacity? Short of a manufacturing revolution, try 25 years.

The reality is that the vision of massive constellations of orbital data centers is nowhere close to being realized.

As this month’s cover story, “Why Orbital Data Centers Are So Hard” by Andrew Cavalier of ABI Research, makes clear, the reality is that the vision of massive constellations of orbital data centers is nowhere close to being realized.

Dina Genkina, IEEE Spectrum’s computing and hardware editor, put the idea into perspective: “Starcloud (a startup that has applied to the FCC for an 88,000 orbital data center satellite constellation) sent one Nvidia H100 GPU in space so far. Their radiator was too weak to let the chip run at full power.”

As Cavalier shows, cooling even a single Nvidia H100 GPU in space is difficult: It draws 700 watts, which will require 1.4 square meters of radiator at 60 °C. A 40-kilowatt rack of servers will need an 80-m² radiator; a 100-megawatt data center will require 2,500 of those radiators. Some astronomers are understandably concerned that a million satellites with giant radiative wings would blot out the stars.

So if the economics doesn’t make sense, if the chips are at the mercy of the radiative ravages of space, and if humanity will lose its view of the stars, not to mention increasing the risk of triggering the Kessler syndrome, why are the hyperscalers hyping orbital data centers?

Genkina offered the obvious answer: sweet, sweet moolah. “The Elon Musk part of it is honestly genius because he’s got xAI building the data centers, SpaceX sending them to space, and Tesla building solar panels,” Genkina says. “It’s almost like he’s paying himself.”

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Home Broadband Is 5G’s Surprise Killer App

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5G telecommunications, according to industry hype when 5G first launched in 2019, was going to be all about buzzy applications like mobile augmented reality and autonomous vehicles. But the surprise plot twist came when replacing home cable internet turned into 5G’s most widely adopted new application.

Fixed wireless access (FWA) now serves over 14 million U.S. customers, and contributes 28 percent of worldwide wireless traffic. Fixed wireless access is what the term sounds like: broadband internet delivered over a cellular radio link to a stationary location—no cable, no fiber, no trenching, no satellite broadband antenna pointed at the sky. What makes FWA distinctive is that it repurposes the same towers, spectrum, and 5G infrastructure that was built for mobile devices.

One U.S. Federal Communications Commission commissioner has called FWA 5G’s killer app. And that’s true not just in the United States either. Jio, India’s largest carrier, is also one of the world’s largest FWA providers, with over 9 million customers as of last year.

Carriers discovered they could repurpose surplus 5G capacity, while also exploiting a usage pattern quirk: mobile traffic starts to drop after 8 p.m., just when home internet usage peaks. The result is broadband, delivered via traditional cellphone towers, at a lower cost than fiber deployment. For these reasons, FWA provides real price competition to cable broadband, while reaching underserved rural and suburban communities.

Fixed Wireless Access Repurposes Ambitious 5G Infrastructure

FWA is cheaper to deploy than fiber, and for most homes and small businesses, fiber’s gigabit speeds are overkill anyway. And since FWA uses the same wireless networks built for cellular service, FWA works anywhere that receives a steady cellular signal.

As cellular networks extend into areas with minimal service, FWA’s coverage map expands with them. In these remote locales, the other main viable broadband alternative typically comes from satellite services like Starlink—which are, compared to FWA, more expensive, with higher delays, and lower bandwidth.

While most FWA deployments use currently underused microwave bands, some FWA deployments use electromagnetic spectrum that 5G launched but that mostly failed with mobile users. Millimeter waves operate at frequencies 10 to 40 times higher than 4G’s spectrum, offering high data rates from their wide available bandwidth.

However, there are good reasons 5G mobile users today don’t generally use millimeter-wave spectrum. Millimeter waves can’t penetrate buildings. Plus, they lose signal strength within a kilometer or two of the transmitter. Millimeter-wave antennas are also a real drain on cellphone batteries compared to microwave and radio-wave tech.

Yet none of these challenges applies to a fixed station with a clear line of sight to a nearby tower. FWA home units (called customer premise equipment or CPEs) outperform 5G handsets by a significant margin. That’s mostly because of hardware. CPEs carry larger, more sensitive antennas than a typical cellphone, paired with more capable transceivers. CPEs also tend to be plugged into wall outlets, making battery concerns a nonissue.

Another 5G technology that did not gain traction in mobile wireless is multi-user multiple-input multiple-output (MU-MIMO). A base station with MU-MIMO uses an array of antennas to serve multiple users on the same frequency simultaneously.

However, maintaining a MU-MIMO signal involves tracking each user individually—a problem that quickly becomes overwhelming with enough mobile users. FWA is different, however. Static CPEs, with their steadier downlink traffic loads, are an ideal match for MU-MIMO technology.

So, FWA internet service not only uses mostly fallow spectrum but also uses 5G spectrum more efficiently than do 5G mobile users—for whom, of course, these 5G technologies were originally designed!

How FWA Became 5G’s Surprise Killer App

Not long ago, the high-bandwidth use cases for 5G made for an impressive list: millisecond latency for autonomous vehicles, mobile augmented reality headsets with extensive high-speed data needs, and massive machine connectivity for an expanding internet of things (IoT).

These applications have all stalled. Autonomous vehicles pose challenging—and still unsolved—problems unrelated to spectrum allocation. Augmented and virtual reality technologies have yet to create meaningful spikes in bandwidth demand. And the IoT has, to date at least, fragmented across an array of competing standards.

Mobile carriers had built dense 5G networks for mobile customers whose needs rarely saturated the network’s capacity. Home broadband usage peaks in the evening hours, precisely when cellular networks are quietest.

FWA sits at cellular networks’ crossroads of supply and demand.

The Advent of 6G Will Only Expand FWA’s Reach

In December, the telecom standards body, the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), issued its latest 5G specification—Release 20, the final “5G only” update. So, although 6G is still years away (its first specifications are expected in early 2029), engineering decisions that will define 6G are being made today. And FWA is not on the margins of that conversation; FWA is currently considered an established day-one use case.

6G wireless technology promises to expand FWA’s reach—not only via spectrum but also via geometry. Instead of following 4G and 5G’s connectivity model—strong signals near towers and weak signals far away—future 6G networks will let homes connect to multiple towers simultaneously, using a technology called distributed MIMO (multiple-input, multiple-output).

Where 5G’s version of MIMO (a.k.a. massive MIMO) concentrates user communication with dozens of antennas at a single tower, distributed MIMO uses antennas across multiple base stations and coordinates them to deliver signals to your home from multiple directions simultaneously.

The practical result: Because no single tower is responsible for any given connection, the “edge” of a cell network—that outer boundary where signal strength falls off and service degrades—no longer represents a hard limit on who gets well served. A home that would once have been too distant from a tower, or blocked by terrain, could now be within reach of several base stations working together.

6G may eventually adopt distributed MIMO technology for mobile users, when synchronization challenges and other signal engineering hurdles are solved and deployed for real-world cellular networks. The jury, as of 2026, is still out on whether the full distributed MIMO problem will be solved once the 6G standards start to be set in place, within three years.

As demand for FWA grows, carriers will also deploy increasingly capable millimeter-wave infrastructure for fixed customers first—the stationary CPE use case that millimeter wave best suits. The dense millimeter-wave antenna infrastructure that FWA requires is the same infrastructure that future mobile applications will eventually inherit. AR glasses, AI-powered wearables, and other bandwidth-hungry applications originally promised for 5G are not canceledthey are waiting for the infrastructure to arrive.

The pathway to FWA is being prepared at lower frequencies, too. There is growing interest today in the largely unoccupied FR3 band, which spans roughly 7 to 24 gigahertz, situated between crowded low/mid-bands and the much higher millimeter-wave frequencies.

Recent field trials by Nokia have demonstrated FR3’s viability for both cellular and FWA applications. FR3 is emerging as one of the more promising near-term frontiers for extending FWA coverage beyond its current footprint.

None of this was the plan. No carrier executive in 2020 stood on a stage and announced that 5G’s defining achievement would be delivering living room broadband to rural homes and suburban subdivisions underserved by cable.

FWA became 5G’s killer app because the engineering economics made it happen. Surplus wireless capacity met unmet consumer broadband demand, with the physics of a stationary receiver doing the rest.

That is not a criticism of the engineers or the carriers. It is simply how technology sometimes advances—sideways, through gaps nobody was trying to fill.

But FWA’s model of prioritizing unconnected users may in the end prove to be telecom’s on-ramp to everything else. Fix the digital divide first. Tomorrow’s sci-fi future appears set to follow close behind.

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AI Learns the “Dark Art” of RFIC Design

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Summary

  • RFIC design is a complex “dark art” that limits progress in wireless technologies like 5G, autonomous vehicles, and satellite communications.
  • Princeton researchers use reinforcement learning and inverse design to rapidly create RFICs from scratch.
  • Diffusion models rapidly generate novel or human-interpretable RF layouts, achieving record performance and drastically reducing design time.
  • Future progress needs large, shared chip design datasets and open ecosystems so AI can learn universal electromagnetic and circuit behaviors.

Take a moment and try to imagine your life without the wireless advances of the past three decades.

Have you lost your luggage? What a shame AirTags have not been invented. The airline representative has promised to call with updates, so settle in for a long wait by the kitchen telephone, because there are no affordable cellphones. You’ll be stuck listening to whatever is on the radio while you wait, because there are no streaming services. That’s not even to speak of all the movie plots that would have been ruined.

This is just a tiny sliver of how wireless technology makes itself felt in your day-to-day existence. The effects it has had on supply chains, infrastructure, and how the economy runs have been world-altering.

None of it would be possible without the radio-frequency integrated circuits that allow all our devices to unobtrusively send and receive information.

Now imagine what the further evolution of this technology will bring: Wide-spread autonomous vehicles, quantum communications, 6G mobile service and satellite communications. Continued momentum will depend on newer and more advanced versions of today’s RF chips.

But there’s the rub. Whereas the design of most of the world’s computing chips has been standardized into its own science, RF design has remained stubbornly in the realm of art. A dark art, even, that is mastered only through years of experience. As any sorcerer will tell you, the dark arts keep their own schedule. And that schedule is impeding progress not just in RF chip design but in every other technology that depends on it.

About seven years ago, in the wake of AlphaGo’s victory over world Go champion Lee Sedol, my students at Princeton and I began to wonder: Could AI be taught this art as well? Recent successes suggest that, to a large extent, it can. Over the last few years, our group and other leaders in the field have started to develop machine-learning-driven algorithmic methods for designing RFICs. Some of the resulting chips look more like modern art than circuit layouts. Yet in many cases, the physical prototypes bested state-of-the art circuits in terms of performance. The real achievement, however, is that it took the AI orders of magnitude less time to conceive a working design than it would a human designer.

This is not about one or two RF chips. AI-enabled design could be the future of all RF design, and maybe much more.

The Dark Art of RFIC Design

So why do these chips all have to be crafted by hand? Why aren’t RFICs designed with an algorithmic synthesis process, much as CPUs and GPUs are?

The design of RFICs is an exercise in engineering across multiple physical domains. Maxwell’s equations, operating across different spatial and temporal scales, govern how electromagnetic fields interact with active and passive devices that must be carefully codesigned for the chip to function. Alongside these are the laws of thermodynamics, which determine how heat is generated and removed during operation, as well as the mechanics of thermal expansion and contraction that dictate how reliably the chip and its packaging survive temperature changes.

Simultaneously accounting for all the physical constraints these impose makes the design space almost impossibly large. Every decision involves complex priorities that often compete with one another, preventing the optimization of any of them.

To better understand the issue, let’s walk through the steps involved, after which you’ll better understand why a single new chip design takes years and tens to hundreds of millions of dollars.

Colorful close-up of a microchip die showing intricate circuits and connection pads

Close-up of a glowing gold microchip circuit with dense patterned components.

Close-up of a microchip die with intricate golden circuit patterns and pads.

Close-up of a patterned microchip die with intricate gold circuitry on a dark background

Close-up of an intricate gold microchip circuit pattern on a dark background

Microscope view of intricate gold microchip circuitry with numbered frame \u201c6\u201d.Most of the area of radio-frequency integrated circuits is dominated by complex electromagnetic structures. Human-designed RFICs, like this broadband power amplifier [1], start with templates and follow a symmetric, understandable pattern. But freed from the constraints of human-designed templates and the need for humans to even understand the rationale of electromagnetic structures, power amplifier ICs [2–5] and low-noise amplifiers [6] can take on truly wild-looking yet efficient designs. SENGUPTA LAB

Let’s say you’re an engineer assigned to design a new 28-gigahertz power amplifier for a 5G-millimeter-wave handset. (This is the type of RFIC that boosts the 5G signals on your phone and transmits them to the antenna where they can be picked up by a distant base station). Where do you start?

RFIC design has some features in common with house building. Just as the blueprint for a house dictates the number of bedrooms and bathrooms to be built and the hallways connecting them, the blueprint for an RFIC—called the architecture—establishes the kinds of elements the RFIC needs to fulfill its intended function. Instead of rooms, the architecture includes, for example, the number of stages of amplification your power amplifier needs. Instead of hallways, it shows the paths that signals must take to get through those stages.

The blueprint for RFICs is actually mostly hallway; passive elements, like inductors and transmission lines, take up far more real estate than active elements like transistors.

Here’s why. As you have probably experienced yourself, a typical CPU’s transistors overheat when faced with operating frequencies of just a few gigahertz. The frequencies RFICs can operate at are higher by an order of magnitude—28 and 39 GHz for 5G signals, 26.5 to 40 GHz and even higher for satellite communications, and 77 GHz for automotive radar. Under this onslaught, a CPU’s transistors would fail.

RFIC transistors avoid this fate because these chips cleverly manage the signal’s energy with careful electromagnetic design. This takes the form of byzantine networks of metal elements that dominate the chip’s real estate. These structures are geometrically regular, often symmetrical, and so intricately constructed they sometimes resemble lacelike filigree. But while they may look decorative, they are essential to the chip’s functioning.

Electrically speaking, these “hallways” work more like the chip’s plumbing. Like plumbing, this extensive labyrinth of passives confines electromagnetic energy only to the places it should be traveling around the chip.

The major challenge in RFIC design is putting all these elements together to ensure they work, just as constructing a house from its blueprints demands exact specs for load-bearing beams, pipes, and external walls. On an RFIC, the architecture needs to be realized with physically fabricable transistors and passive components that are connected just so, to permit the signal to travel through the chip and be processed. The way these devices are connected locally is what we call the circuit’s topology.

The RFIC Design Process

To make that power amplifier, then, your first step is to identify a candidate circuit template: The combination of structures that will meet the goals of a particular architecture with a specific circuit topology. Over the years, researchers have eased your burden by developing reusable design templates for specific functions. For example, templates suggest how many amplification stages a circuit needs (because sometimes, combining the output of two smaller amplifiers will result in better bandwidth and efficiency than you would get from a single larger one). And they suggest what the general configuration of the passive structures should be. Today there is an extensive library of such templates.

However, these can’t simply be used off-the-shelf, because each comes with trade-offs. Some have better gain at the expense of stability; some better bandwidth at the expense of efficiency; still others are more energy efficient at the expense of output power, and so on. There is rarely a clear best choice.

To arrive at the “sweet spot” where all these different parameters are balanced into optimal harmony, designers will typically lay out several different versions of the circuit, using intuitions and methods they have picked up in their years of training.

The challenge is that the decision around the architecture, circuit topology, or the electromagnetic passives cannot be done separately. One decision influences the others. So, designing an RF circuit can often feel like trying to fit an oversized carpet into too small a room—press down one corner, and another pops up.

At microwave and millimeter-wave frequencies, even the smallest misstep is the difference between a chip that works and one that doesn’t, and any number of things can go wrong. For example, when an electromagnetic wave encounters a transistor—or any other component —the path it travels must be properly “matched” to what comes next. If it isn’t, some of the energy reflects backward instead of flowing forward. Imagine trying to connect a high-pressure fire hose directly to a narrow garden hose. Without the right adapter, water will splash backward at the junction. Very little will make it through. In electronics, this is called the impedance-matching problem.

To prevent those reflections, engineers design special transitions, essentially microscopic adapters, that smooth the handoff between components. On a chip, these adapters can be surprisingly intricate. They don’t just pass the signal along; they can also split it, combine it, or distribute it across multiple paths with carefully controlled timing and strength.

Once you’ve done the architecture, plumbing, and everything in between comes the moment of truth. Have all the choices you have navigated through the enormous design space resulted in an RFIC that meets its specifications? If the specifications are not met, you will have to go back, either redoing the topology or the entire architecture, and repeat the whole process. So get ready for months of time- and resource-heavy simulation and iteration. Perhaps you now see why, for decades, a core belief has persisted in the RFIC community: “RF design is an art.” It was said that only an experienced designer—with an artisanal understanding of how the pieces make up the whole—could master the subtleties of analog and RF design. Unfortunately, this entrenched notion has long held back algorithmic innovations in the field just when we need them most. Traditional, artisanal RFIC design is hitting its limits as the complexity of these systems inexorably grows.

AI for RFIC Design

While RFIC designers continued their battle against their “oversized carpet” problem, a series of interesting developments emerged in allied disciplines. Across a range of other previously intractable problems like protein folding and climate modeling, AI has been able to successfully navigate multidimensional complex spaces. This gave us the incentive to look deeper into AI for RF. After all, the combinatorial complexity of protein folding is not that different from the nature of the design space in our domain.

We were not the first to think of using artificial intelligence to speed up parts of RFIC design. Researchers had previously trained machine learning algorithms on circuit templates in the hope of speeding up the normal optimization processes. While this approach was undoubtedly faster than humans at optimizing templates, it still relied fundamentally on libraries of existing designs invented by humans.

We didn’t want that. We wanted to break free from the restrictions of prefabricated topologies. Because while a designer’s experience and hard-won heuristics are crucial to building a working design, they also place fundamental limits on it. Furthermore, such an approach would necessarily require simulation steps as part of the optimization cycle, and even the fastest simulations use a lot of computing resources. Worse still, in many advanced cases, such as for broadband designs, there are no existing templates.

But if we didn’t start with templates, where could we start?

The goal here was to allow algorithms to determine—entirely from scratch—every parameter for architecture, constituent circuits, and electromagnetic passives. This approach differs fundamentally from conventional optimization, which is limited to determining the parameters—like transistor dimensions and passive component geometries—that optimize structures originally devised by humans.

In our new approach, the architecture begins essentially from nothing and is progressively assembled through successive iterations. The system explores the design space by generating myriad candidate circuit combinations and mapping the resulting performance trade-offs as it navigates this landscape. Because the process is not biased by prior human design choices, it can produce completely novel circuit topologies that look markedly different from those created by human designers.

In some ways, the approach echoes AI systems such as AlphaGo Zero, which achieved superhuman performance not because it was trained on games played by humans but because it explored the rules by playing against itself. Similarly, our algorithm develops new circuit architectures by exploring and evaluating its own design strategies. In so doing, it learns to understand circuits, electromagnetics, and the close codesign they need to achieve the end-to-end design of RFIC.

Inverse Design for RFICs

To realize this capability, we proceeded in two stages. First, we developed a reinforcement-learning (RL) framework that determines the optimal system architecture, circuit topology, device parameters, and even the properties of the electromagnetic interfaces that connect different circuit elements. In this stage, the algorithm effectively defines how signals should propagate and interact across the system.

The algorithm trains very similarly to how a computer learns to play a game. If you let it play enough times, it can learn to play better by observing the relationship between the actions it took and the score it achieves. In a similar way, the RL agent here learns to design effective circuits by playing with a set of combinations, and over time, it can map the space between the circuit performance to its architecture, topology, and parameters. This training takes a few days to a week, but once trained, the agent can design circuits very quickly

The next step was to determine the physical structure of the IC’s electromagnetics—the plumbing—that can create the desired properties of the passive elements, which are characterized by a set of metrics called scattering parameters. These measure if a signal entering a component actually moves forward—or is reflecting backward, being wasted, as in our previous example with the fire hose and the garden hose.

Deriving the structure from the desired scattering parameters is an example of an approach called inverse design, which appears across many areas of engineering. In structural engineering, for example, one might collaborate with an architect on a physical goal—such as creating large interior spaces with high ceilings—and then determine the arrangement of arches or buttresses that can support it.

Generative AI for Electromagnetic Networks

Diagram linking S-parameter curves to classical, mazelike, and pixelated structures.
In an effort to make AI-designed circuits more understandable, engineers took a page from image-generation AIs that allow users to create pictures in the style of different artists. Here, instead of an artist\u2019s style, the user can dial in the spatial frequency of an electromagnetic structure. Regardless of how pixelated the structure is, it will still reproduce the needed electromagnetic characteristics, or S-parameters.
Chris Philpot

But RF integrated crcuits pose a particular challenge for inverse design: The process must account simultaneously for circuit behavior and the electromagnetic responses of the interconnects and passive elements that link them together. But it has to figure that out without doing a lot of artisanal iterating.

So we replaced our RF circuit simulator with an AI-based emulator. This AI model can predict the behavior of electromagnetic fields going through any structure—even totally arbitrary two-dimensional shapes—without having to compute the underlying physics from scratch, as simulation tools do. It would predict the solution of Maxwell’s equations and tell you the scattering parameters for any structure you showed it, without actually doing the math. With such an AI in hand, what a time-consuming electromagnetic solver normally takes minutes or hours to accomplish is reduced to milliseconds.

We chose to build our emulator around a convolutional neural network—a machine learning model that has been remarkably successful for image processing. Such networks can extract spatial features from any structure, and it turns out that the image of a structure contains a lot of spatial information that can accurately predict its electromagnetic performance. Then we trained it on a vast number of random pixelated structures whose scattering parameters had been labeled.

Once we had our inverse-design RL and suitable AI emulator, we essentially had an end-to-end AI designer. So we asked it to design us a power amplifier.

Unconventional RF Architectures

In 2023, we published this proof of concept—a power amplifier targeting the millimeter-wave band, specifically spanning 30 to 100 GHz, which covers most of the relevant 5G and radar frequencies. The final design achieved the best combination of wide bandwidth, output power, and efficiency then reported for a silicon-based power amplifier—meaning it could amplify a large amount of data across a wide swath of frequencies—while maintaining record efficiency.

The structure of the IC’s electromagnetic pathways was unlike anything any human would ever consider. Since the AI is not trained on human designs, the layout that emerged looked more like an arbitrary pattern or perhaps a QR code than the regular symmetrical structures we are used to seeing.

One unexpected insight revealed by this prototype, and our research generally, is that there’s no evidence that the templates we’ve historically relied on are even close to optimal for modern design goals. It’s not that a human designer can never come up with a better design. But with the removal of the templates and the time to synthesize cycle upon cycle of optimized circuits, it is now clear that AI-driven synthesis could break traditional design barriers and push the limits of RFIC capabilities.

Our 5G amplifier had only one input port and one output port. Adding more inputs and outputs to a design is not straightforward. Every port electromagnetically couples to every other port, so the scattering parameters quickly add up. Two ports give you four scattering parameters. Four ports, 16 scattering parameters. The math gets ugly fast. Could our model keep up?

We next trained our model on larger classes of electromagnetic structures with many input and output ports. In 2024, we published work showing that multiport integrated circuits are no problem for these AI algorithms either. Where previously multiport electromagnetic simulation required days or weeks of toil, this model evolved new structures in minutes. Since then, a plethora of work in the space by research communities across the globe have demonstrated the power of inverse design in RFIC.

Combining the reinforcement learning framework with the inverse design, we now had the ability to create an RFIC from specifications all the way to a fabrication-ready layout. We’ve so far shown this is true for RFICs ranging from low-noise amplifiers to subterahertz and broadband power amplifiers. The hope is that this will work just as well for other circuits.

Making AI Designs Interpretable

Our goal was to make RFIC design better and easier, but we didn’t want to make it beyond human understanding. Chip testing and debugging is a long, arduous process, sometimes even more so than design. Engineers often prefer ICs to have interpretable structures, so that if a problem crops up, they can understand how the chip works well enough to debug it.

To create structures that are more interpretable, we turned to diffusion models, which you may know from their remarkable ability to generate realistic images from text prompts.

AI-driven synthesis could break traditional design barriers and push the limits of RFIC capabilities.

Imagine you go to your favorite image-generation engine and ask it to create a painting of the sky in the style of Picasso, Van Gogh, or Michelangelo. You will get images that capture the essence of their brushstrokes, their use of colors, and their framing. All are pictures of the sky nonetheless, but in different styles.

Electromagnetic design is similar in that multiple structures can have very similar electromagnetic responses. Instead of using text input, we used scattering parameters as our input, and the electromagnetic structure of an RFIC chip as our output. As part of the inputs to the diffusion model, we created a dial that sets the spatial frequency of the final structure. By turning the dial, a designer can direct the model to synthesize structures with low (classical-looking and interpretable), medium (mazelike structures), or high (pixelated or arbitrarily-shaped) spatial frequency.

From prompts to output, the entire process took about 6 minutes. With this diffusion model, algorithms can now both discover novel architectures and accelerate the creation of conventional, so-called classical ones.

All an RFIC designer needs to do is specify virtually any valid set of scattering parameters. As long as they are physically realizable under Maxwell’s equations, the model pops out a corresponding structure as if it were a vending machine.

The Future of AI-Driven RFIC Design

The results of our investigations have drawn the attention of the RF community. The traditional bottom-up design process is clearly beginning to reverse.

But there are still questions: How generalizable are these methods? Can they consistently deliver truly high performance? Can we get to a place where AI produces designs that maximize every conceivable trade-off, holistically optimizing every parameter to its most ideal physical state? We want to take this strategy beyond RFIC design and invent other kinds of circuits that are different from anything humans have ever done.

These are exciting and ambitious prospects, but we are not there yet. AI can hallucinate a design that creates bad circuits that don’t work. This means verification methods need to remain under human oversight. And, while hallucinations are rare, it would still be good to reduce their occurrence.

History suggests that meeting these dreams of the future will take much more data than we’ve been using. Before the creation of the ImageNet repository—a repository of 14 million varied, human-annotated images—image-recognition models didn’t function well in the real world. The datasets they had been trained on were too tiny to be effective. ImageNet’s massive amounts of training data ushered in a revolution that led to AI that can generalize and recognize images in the wild. The rest was history.

If the goal for RFIC and analog design is a universal foundational model—something that learns the governing laws of electromagnetics and circuit behavior—then we also need data.

The good news is that this data is plentiful. Around the world, countless engineers at companies and academic labs simulate nearly identical RF circuits and passive structures every day. The bad news is that it’s all locked away behind nondisclosure agreements.

Open ecosystems have propelled other areas, and we think the RFIC community should do the same. There had been some movement toward this. Natcast, the operator of the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act’s R&D program, would have bolstered shared infrastructure and innovation for the next generation of wireless, sensing, and defense technologies. Unfortunately, both the organization and the program it ran specifically for machine learning and RFICs have been closed.

But the momentum Natcast’s effort sparked hasn’t died out. Building on our early work, groups across the community have already demonstrated remarkable advances. AI-driven IC design is part of a much broader technological shift. From biology and materials science to automotive and aerospace engineering, AI is reshaping how complex systems are conceived and optimized. Deeper collaboration between AI researchers and chip designers will unlock the field’s full potential. It’s by no means a foregone conclusion, but if we get this right, this genie won’t stay in its bottle.

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Origami Folds Hide Conductive Paths In Plain Sight

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What could you do if you could make a circuit trace by just bending a piece of paper? How about bridging modern technologies and traditional handicrafts while providing opportunities for learning skills in both.

As part of our interdisciplinary research into digital craftsmanship at the MEI Lab at the School of Creative Media, City University of Hong Kong, we came across research that demonstrated how to impregnate paperlike material (technically a “nonwoven textile”) with the kind of liquid metal used to make conductive ink. Initially, the impregnated material is nonconductive because an insulating oxide layer forms that encapsulates microscopic droplets of the liquid metal. However, applying pressure via shaped molds will crack open the insulating layer, allowing neighboring particles to merge, and thus creating conducting regions in the shape of the mold.

Both of us were introduced as children to origami and kirigami (similar to origami, except that cutting is allowed in addition to folding). We, along with our colleagues, decided to see if those traditional techniques could be used on the new material to eliminate the need for molds. Our goal was to allow crafters to make hybrid papercraft creations that contained easily integrated elements such as LEDs and motors.

In particular, we were interested in the possibility of combining the separate stages of creating a papercraft object and adding electrical conductors. Previous approaches to creating electrified papercraft objects relied on adding a separate flexible conductor—such as adhesive copper tape—to the paper. This increases the effort required and runs the risk of creating open circuits as the conductive material conforms to the object’s shape.

The principal items required to make hybrid papercraft objects. Isopropanol and a gallium-indium liquid material are used to impregnate a paperlike material that is 55 percent polyester and 45 percent cellulose. Electronic components such as LEDs and motors are held in place with masking tape. James Provost

Our first step was to see if the pressures involved in bending and cutting alone would be sufficient to create conductive traces. We became frequent visitors to our university’s materials science and engineering department to fabricate samples and then to borrow equipment to characterize their behavior.

We soon confirmed that the pressures involved in folding and cutting—ranging from 2.5 to 100 megapascals—were enough to create conductive traces. We also confirmed that normal handling of the paper didn’t accidentally create conductive paths.

We made a number of changes to the original method for creating the impregnated paper. For example, instead of immersing the paper in a mixture of isopropanol and liquid metal, we used an airbrush to spray the mixture onto the paper. That allowed us to vary how much was deposited on the paper and to use cardboard stencils to mask some areas from being impregnated, allowing folding and cutting in those regions without creating unwanted conductive traces. We also experimented with the ratios of isopropanol and liquid metal.

We became frequent visitors to our university’s materials science and engineering department.

After optimizing the mixing ratios and amount applied via airbrush, we were left with a material that reliably conducts with a resistance of 23.18 ohms per centimeter for cut edges and 4.4 Ω/cm for folded edges. The folded edges retain their conductivity even if later flattened out, and the conductivity is the same on either side of the paper. We estimate the combined cost of the paper and liquid metal (available from many online vendors) is about US $1.80 to make a 10- by 10-cm piece.

The next step was attaching electronic components to the traces. To make the connections more flexible, we cut down the rigid leads of LEDs and attached conductive thread to the stumps. We then held the threads in place using masking tape. Similarly, we connected conductive thread to the terminals of a power supply.

As our goal was to use this material educationally, we now needed to make it easy for a beginner—whether in papercraft or electronics—to try it out. We created a toolkit, dubbed LiqMetCraft. This consists of all the required materials, plus a browser-based software tool that lets the user select or create designs and then gives guidance on physical construction.

We created three versions of LiqMetCraft. The first is based on Chinese papercraft in which a piece of paper is folded into a fanlike segment and then cut to create a radially symmetric design. We provided circles of paper with a doughnot-shape impregnated region, with an untreated region that created a gap in the donut. We attached positive and negative terminals to either side of the gap. The user could specify in the software how many times they wanted to fold the disk and then draw potential cuts, receiving immediate feedback on what the unfolded disk would look like, as well as guidance on how to place LEDs.

A diagram illustrating the primary steps of making and applying the liquid metal mixture. To make our paper sample, isopropanol and liquid metal are mixed in specific ratios while being cooled by an ice bath. Sonic waves are used to ensure the liquid metal breaks up into microscopic droplets. The mixture is then applied via airbrush, while stencils prevent some areas being covered for different papercraft templates. James Provost

The second version of LiqMetCraft was based on origami. We supplied rectangular pieces of paper with two conductive regions separated by a border down the middle. The software tool provided templates for 12 origami designs, with step-by-step instructions for folding them. Once the project was completed, the user could add components, such as a motor, by taping them to the folds.

The final version supported 3D paper model making. In this case, the initial paper supplied was a rectangle with an untreated rectangular central area. By cutting this paper in half and then further cutting the halves into patterns separated by a spacer, the user could make various self-standing models. The software allowed the user to draw a pattern on screen, and then have a cutting machine produce a template for cutting the impregnated paper.

We had 42 participants, evenly divided into three groups, try out the different versions. All found it easy to use, and we were pleasantly surprised that some participants moved beyond the supplied designs to their own creations.

For full details of the current process, see our open access LiqMetCraft research paper published in CHI ‘26: Proceedings of the 2026 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. In the future, we plan to try different substrates for the impregnating solution, as well as explore further types of papercraft, such as pop-up books. We’re also interested in developing ways to use the material to support inputs as well as outputs by constructing switches and potentiometers directly out of the material. Imagine traditional papercraft creations becoming interactive devices!

This article appears in the July 2026 print issue.

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