SAN DIEGO — Trade season has begun for the Toronto Blue Jays, who sent reliever Tommy Nance to the Minnesota Twins on Friday.
It was a small transaction, sending international bonus pool money alongside Nance in exchange for prospect catcher Ryan Sprock. The move, in early July, by no means signals that the Jays will be full-blown sellers at the Aug. 3 trade deadline. If they have more days like Friday, with a 5-3 win over the San Diego Padres, Toronto will be adding, not subtracting, on deadline day.
But it’s still worth considering what a Blue Jays sale would look like. Would it even be worth it?
How the Blue Jays could become sellers
Likely, Toronto will take this decision down to the wire. The team entered Friday at five games under .500 but two games out of a playoff spot. The American League is messy enough that a few wins would vault the Blue Jays into legitimate contention. There’s no need to decide a direction with 18 games left until the deadline.
Even a month before the 2024 deadline, with the Jays at 14 games under .500 and 12 games out of a playoff spot, general manager Ross Atkins didn’t specifically declare his team a seller. He discussed the squad being in a “tough spot” and left open the potential to “adjust.” Obviously that adjustment — a deadline fire sale — arrived, but the example shows how patient and careful the Jays are before deciding on a direction.
Entering Friday, the Blue Jays’ FanGraphs playoff odds sat at 28.7 percent. If they hover around that mark into August, history tells us Toronto is unlikely to sell. The team may even buy.
In 2021, the Jays acquired José Berríos, Brad Hand and Joakim Soria with playoff odds of 30.2 percent. With so much talent and payroll on this 2026 roster, Toronto would have to stack losses after the break to be a clear seller. We’ve only seen this Atkins-led front office blow it up at the deadline with playoff odds in the basement. In July 2018 and 2019, their odds were 0.0 percent. In July 2024, they sat at 0.4 percent.
Who would be on the block?
The Jays are likely to buy if there’s a shot at contention. But if the team slides into selling after the All-Star break, it’s likely to move pending free agents and players without long-term roles in Toronto. Don’t expect a roster implosion and a multi-year rebuild. It’ll be back to hopeful contention next year.
Pending free agent Daulton Varsho will likely be Toronto’s top trade chip in a selling scenario. He’s a solid defender, though he has taken a slight step back this year in the field, and has the power potential to get on a hot streak in the second half. Even amid a down year, Varsho could still start in centre for many playoff contenders. Represented by agent Scott Boras, Varsho is likely to play out his contract and test the open market at this point.
Other potential 2026-27 free agents like Shane Bieber, Jesús Sánchez (though technically arbitration eligible), George Springer and Patrick Corbin could be more trade candidates. Beyond the rentals, Jeff Hoffman, under contract through 2027, may be a target for teams needing bullpen help. After a dreadful start to the year, Hoffman hasn’t allowed a run in his past 13 appearances.
If Toronto decides to trade the rentals, one of its toughest decisions will be to move or keep Kevin Gausman. The righty, with a five-year contract expiring this winter, has expressed how much he enjoys playing in Toronto. Whenever he retires, Gausman said he wants to travel around Canada, sit in the stands as a fan at Jays games and watch them play. This year could be his last, but if Gausman decides to play another season, it will almost certainly be with the Blue Jays.
If so, is that the sort of franchise staple you want to trade? Perhaps the Jays would put that choice in Gausman’s hands if they sell, allowing him to choose if he’d rather chase a ring elsewhere or stay with the Jays.
Is it even worth selling?
If the Jays lose some games and the postseason appears to be a long shot, Atkins and Toronto’s front office will have to consider the benefit of selling. Will their trade pieces even fetch that much? Is it worth blowing up a slim shot at October if the return doesn’t move the needle?
Varsho would fetch a real package. The Twins got two pieces, including a top-15 organizational prospect in Hendry Mendez, back for defence-first outfielder Harrison Bader at the deadline last year. Bader is a clear comparable for Varsho. Even with him, though, the Blue Jays could keep Varsho and present a qualifying offer after the season to ensure draft-pick compensation.
But Bieber, Springer, Sánchez and Corbin — all with individual struggles and injuries this season — don’t project to draw much of a return, even in what’s expected to be a seller’s market. Toronto managed to turn some suspect pieces into real returns in 2024, bringing back Yohendrick Piñango for Nate Pearson and surging prospect Jay Harry for Trevor Richards. But repeating that selling success is hard.
If the Jays decide to trade all their pending free agents, they will likely have to eat money and take a shot on some lottery tickets. They don’t have a Tarik Skubal or Freddy Peralta that will bring back a haul and stock a system.
Even if the Jays are outside the playoff picture, there’s a case for holding on. Perhaps there’s a path between buying and selling, keeping key clubhouse characters like Gausman and Springer while trading rentals with real value like Varsho. They could simultaneously buy MLB-ready players with multiple years of control and not give up on 2026, while helping the future, too.
The Jays, obviously, hope these aren’t questions they’ll have to answer. Things become much easier if Toronto keeps winning and can start shopping for reinforcements. The next 18 games will decide the Blue Jays’ path.
