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Grading my preseason AP Top 25 ballot: What I learned from Clemson, Indiana and other misses

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I recently had my yearly performance review at The Athletic. I’m still here, so I guess it went fine.

Part of that process is a self-review. Always tricky. Like most people, my first inclination is to be critical. As coaches and athletes often say: You remember the losses more than the wins.

Ultimately, though, it’s helpful to self-evaluate.

As I head into my second year voting in the Associated Press Top 25 after years of overseeing the poll, I thought it would be a good idea to look back at last year’s preseason ballot and see where things went right and wrong.

I don’t look at my preseason Top 25 as a straight-up prediction. There is some of that in there, but I try to lean into the knowns, things I can quantify (at least a little), such as returning production and coaching continuity.

No matter how much I’d like to make it a science — we have the analytics folks like Austin Mock for that — it is every bit as much art; an educated guess, at best.

I went through last year’s preseason ballot and graded each slot on how my evaluation/projection played out. I used letter grades with no pluses or minuses and no set criteria. Generally, the closer my preseason ranking came to a team’s final ranking in the actual Top 25, the better the grade.

Something to point out: I have notes and remember my thought process for most of my votes. If I felt like I had a good process but poor results — or vice versa — my grade will reflect that.

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No. 1 Texas

2025 record: 10-3
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 12
Grade: B

I fell for the Longhorns, and no doubt they were a disappointment, but by the time the season ended, they probably were better than a couple of SEC teams that made the College Football Playoff. (To be clear, Texas did not have a compelling case to make the Playoff.) I had the Longhorns in my final top 10. When your preseason No. 1 team doesn’t make a 12-team Playoff, it feels like a big miss, but not as bad as it feels.

No. 2 Penn State

2025 record: 7-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: D

Maybe being off about Texas doesn’t feel so bad because of what happened with Penn State? I definitely had some skepticism about following the crowd on the Nittany Lions hype at this time last year. Still, I took the plunge and got burned. Why is this not an F? Penn State had maybe the most bizarre season in the country. The Nittany Lions performed more like a top-25 team than their record indicates, with five losses by one score.

No. 3 Alabama

2025 record: 11-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 9
Grade: B

I was bullish on the Crimson Tide and remained so for most of the season. I rode that elephant for far too long, finally adjusting in my own final rankings, where I had Alabama at No. 12. This felt more wrong to me than it looks on paper.

No. 4 Ohio State

2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 5
Grade: A

Nailed it.

No. 5 Georgia

2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 6
Grade: A

Nice.

No. 6 Clemson

2025 record: 7-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F

What made this an especially galling failure was that I didn’t trust myself. Now, would I have had Clemson unranked in the preseason? No, I would not have. My first instinct was placing Clemson in the 10 to 12 range, but I instead succumbed to the offseason buzz built on a good second half in a Playoff loss to Texas. And that made the miss even worse.

No. 7 Notre Dame

2025 record: 10-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 10
Grade: A

As a bonus, I also predicted Notre Dame would not make the CFP on The Audible.

No. 8 LSU

2025 record: 7-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F

I think this qualifies as my worst preseason ranking and an extension of another very wrong assessment. I had way too much faith in Brian Kelly’s ability to click as the Tigers’ coach.

No. 9 Oregon

2025 record: 13-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 4
Grade: B

This could be an A, but I had more doubts last offseason about the Ducks than I should have. Still, solid work.

No. 10 Texas A&M

2025 record: 11-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 8
Grade: A

Bang!

No. 11 Michigan

2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 21
Grade: B

While I’m grading myself a little more harshly than the result suggests with Oregon, I’m giving myself some grace with this Big Ten team. I spotted Michigan’s manageable schedule and was confident that it could stay on the fringes of the CFP race all season. In the end, I was overly bullish, but the Wolverines’ season played out pretty much as I thought.

No. 12 Oklahoma

2025 record: 10-3
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 13
Grade: A

Had it all the way.

No. 13 Kansas State

2025 record: 6-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F

I’m addicted to being wrong about Avery Johnson.

No. 14 Florida

2025 record: 4-8
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F

A good example of me getting too bogged down in being formulaic. While the Gators checked some boxes in terms of returning talent and metrics, I went into last season convinced Florida was more likely to fire coach Billy Napier than make the CFP. Yet, I still voted for the best-case scenario.

No. 15 Miami

2025 record: 13-3
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 2
Grade: C

I was lower on the Hurricanes than consensus going into the season, and it burned me. Now, I did end up on the right side of history because I never ranked Miami below Notre Dame at any point during last season. Good recovery.

No. 16 Arizona State

2025 record: 8-5
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: C

The Sun Devils were in a bucket of four teams that broke through in 2024 and had various levels of high hopes for an encore in 2025. Shorting the overachievers’ encore performance is generally a solid strategy in college football. I didn’t lean hard enough into that skepticism when assessing ASU and a few of the other teams in that bucket.

No. 17 Indiana

2025 record: 16-0
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 1
Grade: C

I’m sorry I didn’t forecast the greatest turnaround story in the history of major American sports.

No. 18 Illinois

2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: B

I correctly ignored the Illinois-is-this-year’s-Indiana offseason narrative and took a more measured approach to the Illini. Worked out well. Illinois was the first team out of the final Top 25, but I voted the Illini No. 21 in my final ballot. I could have given myself an A.

No. 19 Utah

2025 record: 11-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 14
Grade: A

I was ahead of the curve on the Utes, who started last season unranked in the actual poll.

No. 20 Texas Tech

2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 7
Grade: B

I thought I was bullish on the Red Raiders heading into last season, but not nearly enough — which is frustrating because when it came time to predict a CFP field during the preseason, I had them in.

No. 21 South Carolina

2025 record: 4-8
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F

I so badly wanted to leave the Gamecocks out of my preseason rankings last year but was peer-pressured into squeezing them into the bottom five. Believe in yourself, kids.

No. 22 Louisville

2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: B

I was absolutely on the right track with Louisville, but pegging the Cardinals as a CFP dark horse was ultimately too optimistic.

No. 23 Ole Miss

2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 3
Grade: D

No, I didn’t see Trinidad Chambliss coming.

No. 24 SMU

2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: B

This was fine.

No. 25 Boise State

2025 record: 9-5
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: C

The Broncos had a weird season, and this preseason ranking wasn’t all that far off from how they finished. Still, I looked at No. 25 as more of a floor than a ceiling.


Some thoughts on the teams that finished ranked after I left them unranked in the preseason:

No. 11 BYU: Like many, I nudged the Cougars out of preseason top 25 contention after quarterback Jake Retzlaff left the team in the summer. It was a mistake, but I hadn’t totally dismissed the possibility BYU would be good.

No. 15 Vanderbilt: Remember what I said about being skeptical of the encore? Yeah, I never saw 10-win Vandy coming.

No. 16 Virginia: Another team I never even considered last preseason.

No. 17 Iowa: The Hawkeyes were among the others I considered. This was no surprise to me.

No. 18 Tulane and No. 19 James Madison: Non-power conference teams generally have to prove it to get ranked. The Green Wave and Dukes did. I regret nothing.

No. 20 USC: The Trojans were the flip side of Florida. They absolutely should have been in my preseason rankings by the criteria I had used, but I made the conscious decision to hold them out and make them prove they could avoid some of the mind-numbing losses they suffered in 2024. And they did.

No. 22 Houston: I had circled the Cougars as a possible sleeper in the Big 12 heading into the season, and they exceeded those expectations.

No. 23 Navy: Definitely did not see an 11-win season coming.

No. 24 North Texas: Figured the Mean Green had a chance to be in the American Conference mix, but never expected the huge jump.

No. 25 TCU: The Horned Frogs were among the last of about 40 teams I gave at least a little thought to ranking in the last preseason.

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How to watch Levante vs. Espanyol in the U.S.: TV channel and streaming options for August 16

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Espanyol and Levante will meet in La Liga on Sunday, Aug. 16. The match at RCDE Stadium begins at 1 p.m. ET.

How to watch Levante UD vs. Espanyol in the U.S.

Levante UD vs. Espanyol odds

  • Favorite Moneyline: Espanyol +110
  • Underdog Moneyline: Levante +275
  • Total: 2.5
  • Total Over Odds: +118
  • Total Under Odds: -149

Injury reports

Espanyol

No injuries listed

Levante UD

No injuries listed

Stats to know

  • Kike Garcia put up eight goals over 38 games last year for Espanyol.
  • Espanyol was 14th in the league in goal differential last season at -12.
  • Ivan Romero de Avila Araque scored seven goals in 34 games last season for Levante.
  • Levante’s goal differential last season (-14) was 16th in the league.

This watch guide was created using technology provided by Data Skrive.

Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

Photo: Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images, iStock

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Jeremy Jacquet’s first Liverpool cameo: Composure, recovery pace – and a goal

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Liverpool completed their pre-season preparations for the start of the Andoni Iraola era with two games on Sunday.

The first, a forgettable 0-0 in a 70-minute runout against Italian side Como, was followed by a 90-minuter against the same side later in the day.

Defender Jeremy Jacquet made his first appearance since his move from Rennes after recovering from injury, impressed in defence and even got on the scoresheet, much to the delight of the Kop.

Cody Gakpo, linked with a move away, also scored while Victor Munoz also gave a good account of himself.

So with Iraola’s first Premier League game in charge coming against Newcastle United on Sunday, what did we learn?

Andy Jones and Gregg Evans look at the talking points.


Where does Jacquet fit in?

Jeremy Jacquet stood tall on his first game in red and showed those watching exactly why Liverpool were so keen to acquire his services.

The 21-year-old impressed from the first minute with his composure on the ball, ability to wriggle out of tight spaces and blistering recovery speed.

After missing most of the summer with a minor knee injury sustained as he was recovering from a shoulder injury, it wouldn’t have been a surprise if he was a little rusty.
Instead, he marshalled the defence alongside Virgil van Dijk without ever looking flustered.

The Kop even began singing his name as early as the 16th minute and by half-time, when he was replaced, he was the player generating the most discussion after scoring the second goal.

Not everything about his performance was perfect, but when he did fall out of position or lose his opponent, he was quick to recover. There were key interceptions, last-ditch tackles, and a handful of rapid sprints that were particularly eye-catching.

With Ibrahima Konate out the door and starting a new chapter at Real Madrid, there’s a chance for Jacquet to flourish providing he can stay fit. After a display like that, he will be expected to start the Premier League opener at Newcastle on Sunday ahead of Ronald Araujo, who was steady on his debut after a half-time introduction.

Gregg Evans


How is Gakpo looking this summer?

As supporters continue to wait for a breakthrough in the pursuit of Bradley Barcola, the man who could end up making way if he arrives reminded everyone watching of his qualities.

Cody Gakpo suffered a dip in form last season and has been constantly linked with a move to Tottenham Hotspur, who are interested in the Dutchman but yet to make any meaningful progress.

This summer, though, Gakpo has returned with a spring in his step and backed up a solid display against Monaco last week with another good performance here.

In this victory, he showed a combination of close skill and clever decision-making before scoring the opening goal with a powerful finish.

When he plays with such direct, attacking poise, he’s a real handful and an important source of goals. If he does stay on board, then Liverpool need him to find the form that made him such a hit in the 2024-25 title-winning season.

(Liverpool FC/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)

However, until the window closes, he’ll continue to be a hot topic. As well his best friend at Liverpool, Curtis Jones, who, unlike Gakpo, has failed to make an impact under Iraola so far. Liverpool said Jones was suffering with a hip injury that “wasn’t worth risking” last week and again it was enough to keep him out as he completed an individual session at the AXA Training Centre.

The midfielder’s future remains uncertain as he’s now into the final year of his contract and no closer to extending. Inter Milan have tried to sign him this summer but are yet to reach Liverpool’s €40million valuation and his absence continues to raise discussions about whether he’ll still be at the club next month.

Gregg Evans


How did Munoz look?

While there were few fireworks in Liverpool’s first friendly, the performance of summer signing Victor Munoz offered further encouragement about the threat he can offer to Iraola’s side.

The 23-year-old made his first start after a 30-minute cameo in the 3-2 defeat to Monaco last weekend. While he struggled to impose himself in that match, he was Liverpool’s main source of creativity during his 45 minutes on the pitch.

Almost immediately we saw some of Munoz’s standout traits. On three minutes, he received the ball out wide, twisted and turned away from the opposition defender and crossed for Trey Nyoni, who headed wide.

Munoz has had a good pre-season sinc ehis move (Nick Taylor/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)

Two minutes later, from a standing start, he showed off his speed and acceleration to race past a defender to the byline, but his low cross was blocked for a corner. There was a similar moment in the second half when he skipped past two Como challenges before forcing another corner.

The end product was the main element that he was lacking, but the creativity was there. He nearly found Federico Chiesa with a through ball in the first half and then the pair connected in the second half when Munoz’s near post cross was flicked on by the Italy international into the arms of the goalkeeper.

There seemed to be an early understanding with midfielder Alexis Mac Allister — who made his first appearance in pre-season, clocking up 59 minutes — as the Argentina international looked to play the ball in behind Como’s right full-back for Munoz to run on to.

His day was not over, either as he played 17 minutes in the second game. This time he played on the right flank, highlighting the versatility he has.

It remains early days, but given Liverpool’s attack was so devoid of pace and dynamism last season, he will offer Iraola something different that should cause opposition problems.

Andy Jones

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'Very last stroke!' – GB win dramatic relay gold

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Great Britain win gold in the women’s 4x100m relay, stealing the win from Italy in a dramatic finish as the swim comes right down to the wire.

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