Sports
Grading my preseason AP Top 25 ballot: What I learned from Clemson, Indiana and other misses
I recently had my yearly performance review at The Athletic. I’m still here, so I guess it went fine.
Part of that process is a self-review. Always tricky. Like most people, my first inclination is to be critical. As coaches and athletes often say: You remember the losses more than the wins.
Ultimately, though, it’s helpful to self-evaluate.
As I head into my second year voting in the Associated Press Top 25 after years of overseeing the poll, I thought it would be a good idea to look back at last year’s preseason ballot and see where things went right and wrong.
I don’t look at my preseason Top 25 as a straight-up prediction. There is some of that in there, but I try to lean into the knowns, things I can quantify (at least a little), such as returning production and coaching continuity.
No matter how much I’d like to make it a science — we have the analytics folks like Austin Mock for that — it is every bit as much art; an educated guess, at best.
I went through last year’s preseason ballot and graded each slot on how my evaluation/projection played out. I used letter grades with no pluses or minuses and no set criteria. Generally, the closer my preseason ranking came to a team’s final ranking in the actual Top 25, the better the grade.
Something to point out: I have notes and remember my thought process for most of my votes. If I felt like I had a good process but poor results — or vice versa — my grade will reflect that.
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No. 1 Texas
2025 record: 10-3
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 12
Grade: B
I fell for the Longhorns, and no doubt they were a disappointment, but by the time the season ended, they probably were better than a couple of SEC teams that made the College Football Playoff. (To be clear, Texas did not have a compelling case to make the Playoff.) I had the Longhorns in my final top 10. When your preseason No. 1 team doesn’t make a 12-team Playoff, it feels like a big miss, but not as bad as it feels.
No. 2 Penn State
2025 record: 7-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: D
Maybe being off about Texas doesn’t feel so bad because of what happened with Penn State? I definitely had some skepticism about following the crowd on the Nittany Lions hype at this time last year. Still, I took the plunge and got burned. Why is this not an F? Penn State had maybe the most bizarre season in the country. The Nittany Lions performed more like a top-25 team than their record indicates, with five losses by one score.
No. 3 Alabama
2025 record: 11-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 9
Grade: B
I was bullish on the Crimson Tide and remained so for most of the season. I rode that elephant for far too long, finally adjusting in my own final rankings, where I had Alabama at No. 12. This felt more wrong to me than it looks on paper.
No. 4 Ohio State
2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 5
Grade: A
Nailed it.
No. 5 Georgia
2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 6
Grade: A
Nice.
No. 6 Clemson
2025 record: 7-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F
What made this an especially galling failure was that I didn’t trust myself. Now, would I have had Clemson unranked in the preseason? No, I would not have. My first instinct was placing Clemson in the 10 to 12 range, but I instead succumbed to the offseason buzz built on a good second half in a Playoff loss to Texas. And that made the miss even worse.
No. 7 Notre Dame
2025 record: 10-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 10
Grade: A
As a bonus, I also predicted Notre Dame would not make the CFP on The Audible.
No. 8 LSU
2025 record: 7-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F
I think this qualifies as my worst preseason ranking and an extension of another very wrong assessment. I had way too much faith in Brian Kelly’s ability to click as the Tigers’ coach.
No. 9 Oregon
2025 record: 13-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 4
Grade: B
This could be an A, but I had more doubts last offseason about the Ducks than I should have. Still, solid work.
No. 10 Texas A&M
2025 record: 11-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 8
Grade: A
Bang!
No. 11 Michigan
2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 21
Grade: B
While I’m grading myself a little more harshly than the result suggests with Oregon, I’m giving myself some grace with this Big Ten team. I spotted Michigan’s manageable schedule and was confident that it could stay on the fringes of the CFP race all season. In the end, I was overly bullish, but the Wolverines’ season played out pretty much as I thought.
No. 12 Oklahoma
2025 record: 10-3
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 13
Grade: A
Had it all the way.
No. 13 Kansas State
2025 record: 6-6
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F
I’m addicted to being wrong about Avery Johnson.
No. 14 Florida
2025 record: 4-8
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F
A good example of me getting too bogged down in being formulaic. While the Gators checked some boxes in terms of returning talent and metrics, I went into last season convinced Florida was more likely to fire coach Billy Napier than make the CFP. Yet, I still voted for the best-case scenario.
No. 15 Miami
2025 record: 13-3
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 2
Grade: C
I was lower on the Hurricanes than consensus going into the season, and it burned me. Now, I did end up on the right side of history because I never ranked Miami below Notre Dame at any point during last season. Good recovery.
No. 16 Arizona State
2025 record: 8-5
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: C
The Sun Devils were in a bucket of four teams that broke through in 2024 and had various levels of high hopes for an encore in 2025. Shorting the overachievers’ encore performance is generally a solid strategy in college football. I didn’t lean hard enough into that skepticism when assessing ASU and a few of the other teams in that bucket.
No. 17 Indiana
2025 record: 16-0
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 1
Grade: C
I’m sorry I didn’t forecast the greatest turnaround story in the history of major American sports.
No. 18 Illinois
2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: B
I correctly ignored the Illinois-is-this-year’s-Indiana offseason narrative and took a more measured approach to the Illini. Worked out well. Illinois was the first team out of the final Top 25, but I voted the Illini No. 21 in my final ballot. I could have given myself an A.
No. 19 Utah
2025 record: 11-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 14
Grade: A
I was ahead of the curve on the Utes, who started last season unranked in the actual poll.
No. 20 Texas Tech
2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 7
Grade: B
I thought I was bullish on the Red Raiders heading into last season, but not nearly enough — which is frustrating because when it came time to predict a CFP field during the preseason, I had them in.
No. 21 South Carolina
2025 record: 4-8
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: F
I so badly wanted to leave the Gamecocks out of my preseason rankings last year but was peer-pressured into squeezing them into the bottom five. Believe in yourself, kids.
No. 22 Louisville
2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: B
I was absolutely on the right track with Louisville, but pegging the Cardinals as a CFP dark horse was ultimately too optimistic.
No. 23 Ole Miss
2025 record: 12-2
Final AP Top 25 ranking: No. 3
Grade: D
No, I didn’t see Trinidad Chambliss coming.
No. 24 SMU
2025 record: 9-4
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: B
This was fine.
No. 25 Boise State
2025 record: 9-5
Final AP Top 25 ranking: Unranked
Grade: C
The Broncos had a weird season, and this preseason ranking wasn’t all that far off from how they finished. Still, I looked at No. 25 as more of a floor than a ceiling.
Some thoughts on the teams that finished ranked after I left them unranked in the preseason:
No. 11 BYU: Like many, I nudged the Cougars out of preseason top 25 contention after quarterback Jake Retzlaff left the team in the summer. It was a mistake, but I hadn’t totally dismissed the possibility BYU would be good.
No. 15 Vanderbilt: Remember what I said about being skeptical of the encore? Yeah, I never saw 10-win Vandy coming.
No. 16 Virginia: Another team I never even considered last preseason.
No. 17 Iowa: The Hawkeyes were among the others I considered. This was no surprise to me.
No. 18 Tulane and No. 19 James Madison: Non-power conference teams generally have to prove it to get ranked. The Green Wave and Dukes did. I regret nothing.
No. 20 USC: The Trojans were the flip side of Florida. They absolutely should have been in my preseason rankings by the criteria I had used, but I made the conscious decision to hold them out and make them prove they could avoid some of the mind-numbing losses they suffered in 2024. And they did.
No. 22 Houston: I had circled the Cougars as a possible sleeper in the Big 12 heading into the season, and they exceeded those expectations.
No. 23 Navy: Definitely did not see an 11-win season coming.
No. 24 North Texas: Figured the Mean Green had a chance to be in the American Conference mix, but never expected the huge jump.
No. 25 TCU: The Horned Frogs were among the last of about 40 teams I gave at least a little thought to ranking in the last preseason.
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Sports
Burnley 2 – 2 West Ham
Zian Flemming struck twice late on as Burnley came back to deny West Ham in a 2-2 Championship draw between the freshly relegated sides at Turf Moor.
West Ham, strong favourites to make an immediate return to the Premier League, looked set for three points when Manor Solomon rifled home in the 72nd minute, doubling the lead given to them by Max Kilman 10 minutes in.
But Burnley kept scrapping, and Flemming struck an 83rd-minute penalty before finding the net in stoppage time to give his boss Nicky Hayen a first league point on his 46th birthday, and prevent what would have been their first home Championship defeat since April 2023.
West Ham may have lost Mateus Fernandes and Crysencio Summerville for big transfer fees since the drop, but have crucially kept Jarrod Bowen and this week broke the Championship transfer record with a £22m deal for Arne Engels to underline their promotion credentials.
It was too soon for Engels to be involved here, but for much of the afternoon Nuno Espirito Santo’s side looked to have the edge in quality against a Burnley team who too often made the wrong decision and wasted first-half opportunities.
There was less than a minute gone when Flemming flicked over from Jacob Bruun Larsen’s cross, but it was a false dawn for Burnley as West Ham scored from their first real chance.
Kilman took advantage of poor defending, easily peeling away from Aaron Ramsey to head in Bowen’s free-kick for his first goal in 68 West Ham appearances.
With former manager David Moyes watching on, West Ham were bossing possession as a full away end dominated the atmosphere at Turf Moor, with plenty of bright touches from Solomon – a key part of Leeds’ promotion campaign two years ago.
Burnley had the momentum at the start of the second half, but Flemming had already wasted two excellent chances before he got above Konstantinos Mavropanos to send Marcus Edwards’ inswinging cross onto the post, from where it bounced back into the arms of a grateful Mads Hermansen.
Flemming’s frustration then grew as another effort was cleared off the line by Ollie Scarles from Bruun Larsen’s corner.
West Ham’s first shot of the second half did not come until the 71st minute when Bowen’s strike hit his own man in Kilman, but Burnley never fully cleared it and Mohamadou Kante danced down the touchline before his cross was deflected for Solomon to lash home.
But Burnley got a lifeline when Scarles scythed down Edwards in the box and Flemming sent Hermansen the wrong way, and two minutes into the seven added on, the ball broke to him following a scramble in the box and he picked out the bottom corner.
Nuno eyes attacking signings | ‘Draw tough to take’
West Ham boss Nuno Espirito Santo speaking to Sky Sports on whether he wants to sign a striker:
“Yeah, unfortunately today Pablo felt something in the calf. We need more options in the offensive part of the team, of course.”
On the draw: “It was a tough one to take. First half, we did things quite well. We controlled, we played good, we created a lot of situations.
“Second half, Burnley reacted, had a couple of chances, but after we scored the second time it was about trying to keep the result, having more of the ball. We were not able to do as much as we should.
“We should have kept the ball more and tried to exploit a little bit more of the space that we had. But overall, the result, the chances of Burnley, ourselves, we have to be fair.”
Hayen: It feels like we won the game
Burnley boss Nicky Hayen speaking to Sky Sports:
“I’m really pleased with the way we showed resilience and came back in a game that we actually didn’t deserve to lose.
“The team showed character today, and that’s the most important. They were really clinical, and we weren’t.
“At the end, we level up, and it gives a feeling that you won the game, even if we have one point.
“But the way we came back was really good, and I’m really pleased for everyone.
“When you draw against one of the biggest favourites for the title, you can be happy.”
‘Draw magnifies West Ham’s need for a new forward’
Ex-West Ham goalkeeper Rob Green speaking to Sky Sports on the Hammers’ pursuit of Leeds forward Joel Piroe:
“Bring him in, and today just really magnified that they need it.
“Pablo, for all his endeavour, he’s not scored a goal yet for the club. They had two shots on target today.
“He’s not creating anything, so you’re looking for a guy to add goals, add more creation and someone who’s a target and a force to be reckoned with.
“The season’s so long in the Championship, and Nuno knows this, as he alluded to himself – more options. It was plural.
“The cynic in me says this was a good day for Nuno because he turns around and bang, that’s where we’re short.”
What the result means and next fixtures…
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Sports
Newcastle 1-1 Strasbourg: Newcastle at best when ‘us against world’ – Dan Burn
It will clearly take time.
Burn needs no reminding that all of Newcastle‘s arrivals are 24 and under and have never played in the Premier League before.
But he wants to “embrace the change” as he looks to help the new signings quickly realise what it means to play for the club.
“Right now, can you tell if someone is going to be the next Bruno?” he said. “Maybe not, but I think there’s definitely ability there.”
Jaissle has repeatedly used the word “transition” since taking charge and said the vocal Burn will be “vital in helping guide our younger players through this period of change”.
It will fall to Burn and the club’s other senior players to push those around them, knowing full well the standards which were set when the club qualified for the Champions League and ended a 70-year wait to win a major domestic trophy by lifting the EFL Cup.
Newcastle finished 12th in the Premier League last season, but were previously a ferocious and spiky side to play against at their best under Howe.
Burn, however, suggested they were “not allowed to” tap into the dark arts anymore.
“It seemed everything we did was stopped in the Premier League in the season after,” he said of various rule changes.
“It’s more a mentality. Not that we ever tried to hurt people, but everyone said that. People feared us and didn’t want to play against us. I’d love for us to have a bit of that.
“All the best teams seem to. If that’s going to help us, I’d love to do that but I’d be surprised if the Premier League allowed us to.”
The top flight will get the first glimpse of this new-look side when Newcastle face Liverpool at St James’ Park next week (Sunday, 16:30 BST).
It is set to be an emotional afternoon as the stadium pays tribute to the late Kevin Keegan, one of the most transformational figures in Newcastle‘s history, who also represented Liverpool as a player.
Burn had lunch with Keegan at the end of May – following an invitation from Newcastle‘s former manager – and said he was a “great person to be around”.
“I don’t think we need any motivation,” he said. “Either us or the city.”
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Sports
Jack Grealish: Shop window or new chance – what next for Man City winger?
Grealish has the chance of a fresh start under a new manager at City in Maresca.
The Italian did say after Sunday’s game that Grealish will get games if he stays and impresses.
But it still feels more than likely he will end up leaving.
“Is Grealish going to be the player to change City and make a difference this season?” asked ex-Scotland winger Nevin on BBC Radio 5 Live.
“I don’t think many people think that’s going to happen for Jack at Manchester City, but it’s a chance to say to any suitors at all that he’s available, he’s fit and he does look good.
“He’s done enough for me to think he’ll do a job for somebody.”
Grealish could yet return to Everton. The Toffees opted not to make the deal permanent for City’s rumoured valuation of £50m this summer.
But with one year left on his supposed £300,000-a-week deal, and with Grealish likely to be a substitute at best, City are surely going to be open to lower or loan offers.
BBC Radio Merseyside reporter Giulia Bould said: “Grealish is still someone the Toffees would want to sign again, most likely on another loan, but he will need to have recovered from the foot surgery he underwent in January.
“Grealish has made no secret he loved playing for the Toffees and his social media bio still has Everton as his club so if all parties can agree a deal then I would expect him to be back.”
Could he even go back to his boyhood club Aston Villa, who are in the Champions League this season?
BBC Radio WM presenter Daz Hale said: “There is a real romance of the return of the prodigal son. You always felt it was written at some point he would come back.
“He is still a wonderful talent and adds real personality to a football team. He carries the ball really well, and we have lost Morgan Rogers.
“It is a Champions League season again for Villa, they need to have strength in depth with a deeper talent pool. I think he would be an asset to Villa. You cannot have too many good players.
“Whether it is this year or next year, I just think it is written in the stars that he will come back.”
Or could an overseas move for Grealish hold some appeal? Several media outlets claim that Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are looking at him.
The window is open for another fortnight. Grealish must be peering through and wondering what path his career is about to follow.
For now, he remains City’s player, with just that lingering possibility he could still revive his career at the Etihad.
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