The 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs roll on with the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Mo. The course designed by Robert Trent Jones has hosted three major championships since 1965, most recently in 2018, when Brooks Koepka outlasted Tiger Woods and Adam Scott to win that year’s PGA Championship.

The top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings made the trimmed-down field for this week’s second leg. Scottie Scheffler (+290) leads the way thanks to his dominant finish at last week’s St. Jude Championship for his second PGA Tour win of the season. Matt McCarty (+22500) is second-to-last on the odds board after watching Jordan Spieth and Keith Mitchell each fumble their opportunities to advance to the BMW Championship on the back nine last Sunday.

Scheffler has built a massive lead of more than 1,400 points over second-place Matt Fitzpatrick in the FedEx Cup standings. Scheffler had the best putting performance of his career at St. Jude while gaining over 6.6 strokes on approach. While others were making mistakes, Scheffler was getting better and better as the week went on.

We were lucky enough to bet Scheffler at +500 odds to win last week’s tournament, but his price moves to a very hard-to-stomach +290 this week. DFS lineups featuring Scheffler were also atop leaderboards, but it could be more difficult to afford him again.

My model is concentrated on the last 24 rounds played, and includes driving distance, strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained around the green, strokes gained putting, and strokes gained on par 3s longer than 200 yards. Bellerive Country Club is a long par 70 that has some water in play in key areas; it also features some difficult long par 4s and very difficult long Par 3s. The par-3 sixth hole and the long par-3 16th hole will be key to watch, with big numbers lurking.

BMW Championship course

Name: Bellerive Country Club
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
Designer: Robert Trent Jones
Par: 70
Length: 7,448 yards
Average green size: 7,600 square feet

BMW Championship odds

BMW Championship bets

Ludvig Aberg +1800 is only slightly behind Rory McIlroy on the odds board. When McIlroy is in form and playing a course that fits his game, he would be a no-brainer bet at +1600 odds – but Ludvig has been in slightly better form lately. Aberg has gained over 8.1 strokes off the tee in his last two tournaments combined and would have had a better finish at St. Jude if he didn’t struggle with his iron play on Saturday.

Si Woo Kim +2800 had a great interview before St. Jude, during which he talked about his relationship with Scheffler and playing against him at their home golf course. Si Woo said he has never beaten Scheffler in any of the matches at their home course, while tying him only a handful of times. Si Woo didn’t let that deter him as he had a great Sunday to finish in second alone in a crowded field. Si Woo is putting his drives wherever he wants off the tee, giving himself plenty of chances to break par with his iron play. He has gained over 2.5 strokes on approach in seven straight tournaments. 

Hideki Matsuyama +3000 has fixed his driver issues since the U.S. Open, having gained strokes off the tee in six straight tournaments. His best came last week, when he gained over 3.6 strokes off the tee. He has also gained over 16 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments. 

Viktor Hovland +3000 and Wyndham Clark were both in the running for the final spot on my betting card, but I am leaning toward Hovland. He has gained over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments, and looked like he was headed for a nice finish at St. Jude before his driver betrayed him on the weekend. We all know he will be back in the lab trying to figure it out. 

DFS plays

Scottie Scheffler ($14,400 is priced very high, so his ownership could drop given how difficult it is to build a team around him. He is way ahead of the field in my model and will be in play for me, even if I have to fill out my lineup with dart throws. The silver lining is this is a no-cut event, so one bad round won’t cost us too much as long as we get birdies from the rest of the lineup. 

Xander Schauffele ($9,900 has gained over 8 strokes combined off the tee in his last three tournaments. He has also gained over 10 strokes combined on approach over his last three tournaments. He is flying a little under the radar, as he hasn’t been around the lead since he was climbing the leaderboard on the Sunday of Rocket Mortgage, but he looks like he is ready to put it all together. 

Ludvig Aberg ($9,700) See above.

Si Woo Kim ($9,100) See above.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) See above.

Viktor Hovland ($8,800) See above.

Wyndham Clark ($8,700) gained strokes across the board at St. Jude and closed out strong last Sunday to finish tied-fifth. He is in play for me in guarantee prize pools, and may even be the second player in my Scottie Scheffler lineups thanks to his upside. Clark has had an excellent season on par 3s, especially long ones.

Jake Knapp ($8,200) finally looks healthy and was a cold putter away from making some real noise last week. He has gained over 3 strokes off the tee in two of his last three tournaments. He has also gained almost 10 strokes on approach in his last three tournaments combined. 

Tom Kim ($8,100) has gained more than 1.3 strokes on approach in 11 straight tournaments. He struggled with his ball striking on Friday at St. Jude, but bounced back on the weekend to finish tied-12th. 

Kurt Kitayama ($7,900) has gained over 4 strokes combined off the tee in his last two tournaments. He has gained 7 strokes on approach in his last three tournaments combined. He is solid on long par 3s and has the long game to cut off some of the doglegs here. 

Michael Thorbjornsen ($7,500) has gained over 8 strokes combined off the tee in his last four tournaments. He struggled with his iron play on Friday and Saturday at St. Jude, but bounced back on Sunday. 

Michael Brennan ($7,300) has gained over 7 strokes combined off the tee in his last two tournaments. I expected a hangover after his win, so I will give him some slack for last week, but he needs to improve around the green to compete with the big boys. 

Sungjae Im ($7,000) has gained strokes off the tee in four of his last five tournaments. He gained strokes on approach in all four rounds at St. Jude. He is having a fantastic run to end his season and will need another high finish to make it to the Tour Championship. 

Justin Rose ($6,800) is my pedigree play in this price range. He has been outstanding, especially for his age (46 years old), over the last two years. He has gained strokes on approach in five of his last six tournaments with two top-11 finishes in major championships during that run. He has gained strokes with the putter in five straight, and he gained over 6 strokes with his ball-striking last Sunday.

Nicolai Hojgaard ($6,700) has four top-six finishes on the PGA Tour this year, but he has struggled since his second-place finish at the Truist Championship. He has gained over 4.4 strokes combined off the tee in his last four tournaments. He gained over 2.5 strokes on approach on the weekend at St. Jude to at least give us some hope that he is on the upswing coming into this week. 

Sepp Straka ($6,000) has struggled on the PGA Tour since his tied-fourth at the Cadillac Championship in the spring. He gave us some hope going into this week as he gained over 3.5 strokes tee to green at St. Jude, which was the first time he has done that on the PGA Tour since the Cadillac Championship. 

One and done

Last week was another lousy one-and-done week in the Esser household. Collin Morikawa decided not to pack his putter for the St. Jude, and we fell further down the standings.

This week, I am looking at Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, and Xander Schauffele. I’m going with Aberg and hoping I can use Schauffele next week to try and sneak in two wins late in the year and jump up in the money.

Who are you going with and why?