How much does opponent quality matter?

Reading that question likely resulted in your gut saying, “Of course opponent quality matters a lot, you idiot.” Though impolite, that would be an acceptable response.

That’s because I didn’t have space for the real question here: Do strength of schedule rankings matter … when they’re calculated in May? 

Inside: Ranking 2026 strength of schedule for all 32 teams. Plus: why an A.J. Brown trade must wait until after June 1 and solid referee news. Let’s go.

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Does strength of schedule matter?

At first blush, definitely not. Around this time last year, teams were glad to have the Patriots, Jaguars, Panthers or Bears on their schedules. Those teams had won fewer than 30 percent of their combined games in 2024 … and then they made 2025’s playoffs with a combined record of 46-22.

A similar thing happened in 2024, when the Commanders, Chargers and Vikings surprisingly became favorites in nearly every matchup.

So when you see these strength of schedule rankings by Sharp Football — based on opponents’ projected win totals — you should remember they won’t end up perfect.

(Quick aside: You might be wondering how anyone could tabulate this without having 2026’s schedule. That’s because we already know each team’s opponents, thanks to the NFL’s formula that my colleague Saad Yousuf masterfully explained here. We just don’t yet know the orders of those opponents, which the NFL will publish on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET. Got it? Good.)

So does any of this matter, if opponents will all be better or worse than they were last year? Absolutely. First, schedule-release videos are always amazing. There’s also this:

• At this time last year, the 49ers, Patriots and Saints were expected to have the league’s easiest schedules. All three would beat their Vegas win-total expectations.
• Meanwhile, the Giants, Browns and Lions projected to have daunting schedules. Look what happened! The Lions shockingly missed the playoffs. The Giants won fewer games than expected. The Browns barely beat their 4.5-game win total, thanks to shocking upsets in Weeks 17 and 18.

So yes, the schedule matters, but only so much. It’s part of why I’m optimistic Detroit, Cincinnati and New Orleans will overachieve this season. As for Miami and Arizona, well, at least the 2027 quarterback class is strong. We’ll have more on the schedule in Friday’s newsletter.

As for what else is happening well before Week 1 …

Two big storylines during quiet months

One of the coolest experiences of my life was attending my first NFL game as a reporter. I was green and uncertain, but Mike Jones graciously took me under his wing. It’s very hard to visit a locker room after a playoff loss and get players to talk. It’s even harder to ask difficult questions. Mike does both exceptionally well.

I learn from Mike often, including today. He published the biggest upcoming checkpoints for this offseason. Three of note:

May 18: A decision from Aaron Rodgers. The Steelers’ voluntary offseason practices start next week, giving the 42-year-old a chance to confirm he’ll be back to work. He’s been scheduled to visit Pittsburgh, so we could get answers soon. But last year, he didn’t commit until June, so don’t hold your breath.

June 2: A potential A.J. Brown trade. His future is likely in New England. Our beat reporter Chad Graff has written that a trade from the Eagles “feels like a foregone conclusion.” The only holdup is contract-related, as Zach Berman and Chad explain in this story:

💬 “If Brown were traded before June 1, the Eagles would absorb a salary-cap hit of $43.4 million, per Over the Cap. A trade after June 1 would count $16.3 million against the 2026 salary cap because the Eagles could split the cap hit over two seasons.”

May 31 NEVER: Replacement referee training. Or more accurately, not this year. I’ll explain that next.

Referees strike (a deal)

I waited for a special moment to get that GIF into this newsletter. That meant two years and 466 newsletters of patience. But it’s all worth it for what I’m about to type.

The NFL agreed to a deal with the referees’ union, meaning no replacement refs. Mike has that story too, explaining that the league and the NFL Referees Association finalized a seven-year collective bargaining agreement. It ensures veteran officials will work every game of the coming seasons.

The alternative was disaster. Zak Keefer shared horror stories from 2012, when the league last tried using replacement officials. “You were wondering if (officials) were coming out to get autographs,” said Norv Turner, then the Chargers coach.

Extra Points

👀 Jauan Jennings, Viking. Minnesota added the former 49ers receiver on a one-year deal worth up to $13 million. The 28-year-old immediately becomes the team’s best blocking wideout and a third weapon for Kyler Murray.

📓 Value picks. Nick Baumgardner shared his biggest bargains from Day 3 of the draft, and I’m wondering whether Bryce Lance, brother of Trey, could be the Saints’ best rookie receiver.

💴 The Jets made Breece Hall the third-highest-paid running back, with a three-year extension worth up to $45.75 million. Details here.

▶️ Thursday’s most-clicked: Ted Nguyen’s nine best offseasons, including the Cowboys and 49ers.

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