Entertainment
The Ledger: Say Hello to Our Finance-Focused Newsletter


Welcome to The Ledger, TheWrap’s cheat sheet on what investors in media and entertainment are thinking about and where the money is flowing. This weekly guide promises to provide insights that bridge the gap between Hollywood and Wall Street.

It’s a common industry refrain: “It’s called show business for a reason.” That business is rapidly changing and understanding how that disruption creates new opportunities for revenue, cash flow and market value is paramount (no pun intended).
I am Jon Lafayette, and I’ve covered the business of media for Broadcasting+Cable, TVWeek, Advertising Age and the New York Post.
My aim is to use this newsletter to cover public and private investment, who is buying and selling, and what they’re buying and selling. I will also bring insights and opinions from managers and analysts with skin in the game.
I’m starting off with one of the biggest names in media investing, Chris Marangi, chief investment officer at GAMCO, the investment company started by legendary media maven Mario Gabelli. Gabelli was early to bet on the value of intellectual property, understanding the potential value of sequels and eventually franchises like “Star Wars.”
In a consolidating media industry, Gabelli still has huge stakes in companies including Warner Bros. Discovery and Sony, making its views on the financial futures of this industry invaluable.
Thanks for reading,
Jon Lafayette
P.S.: Send your tips and pitches to jon.lafayette@thewrap.com


For decades, the name Gabelli has been synonymous with investing in media and entertainment. Between industry consolidation, the rise of streaming and the spectre of AI, investing in media has become challenging, even for Gabelli.
Chris Marangi has been with the firm for 23 years, starting as a media analyst and now serving as co-chief investment officer of GAMCO (Gabelli Asset Management Co.). Here are some of his key insights:
- In the age of AI, media companies with loads of IP still retain tremendous value.
- Disney should consider spinning off its theme parks and cruise line businesses.
- Keep an eye on Sony (a potential buyer) and TelevisaUnivision (a potential seller).
- He’s bullish on live events, from sports teams and even Live Nation, despite its legal troubles.
While historically, Gabelli has been a big player in media, with consolidation, Marangi declined to say how much of the funds Gabelli manages is currently invested in media.
“The menu of traditional media companies has shrunk, although media on a broadly defined basis has expanded if you include companies like Google/YouTube, Netflix and others,” he said.
He noted that at this point the market cap for Netflix exceeds what is deemed traditional media. One hot take: Broadcasters will have a longer life than some doomsayers expect, but there will continue to be consolidation across the sector.
The AI overhang
In looking at investments today, Marangi said that everything should be considered through the lens of artificial intelligence, which will produce winners and losers.
“I think AI is broadly viewed as negative for traditional media,” Marangi said. “I’m not sure that’s true.”
He said AI could enable media companies to produce content more efficiently and to create more leisure time for consumers to consume more content.
Marangi said there are “still reasons to invest in traditional media, and we are still meaningful investors in the broadcast area and parts of distribution.”
One way to profit from investments in a consolidating media world is to own a company that becomes an acquisition target.
Gabelli was the second-biggest holder of Paramount voting stock when it was acquired by Skydance and was a long-time investor in Discovery. Gabelli kept its Warner Bros. Discovery shares when the stock was at its depths and reaped the potential gains as the Ellisons and Netflix bid the stock up as rival bidders.
To be sure, media companies still have assets that remain valuable in an AI age, particularly their intellectual property.
“It’s the libraries of content, the characters that live in the imaginations of generations of people that are irreplaceable, that AI is largely training and which gave Warner Bros. much of its value.”
The Walt Disney Co. certainly has that type of attractive IP and the purchase prices for Paramount and Warner Bros. to provide data points for valuing their libraries and IP.
“Disney has evolved primarily into an experiences company, which makes it interesting and attractive in our view,” Marangi said. “The Disney studio almost certainly would be worth more than Warner Bros. The question is what will their new CEO do with those assets. Would they consider financial engineering? I think as recently as 10 years ago, the answer was certainly no, but it’s probably something that should be considered.”

Separation anxiety
Marangi said he believes Disney could surface a lot of value by separating their experiences assets — the theme park and cruise line business — from their studio, streaming and linear businesses. He noted that there was some discussion of Disney making ESPN into a separate business.
“ESPN probably would be worth a lot more on a standalone basis. I don’t know that that’s happening any time soon.”
Comcast spun off most of its cable network business, creating Versant, now a publicly traded company. As a separate company, “management can focus on transforming, or pivoting away from traditional linear media. Because there’s more pressure on them to do so,” he said.
Another company with a substantial cache of IP is Sony. Gabelli has a substantial position in the Japanese conglomerate, Marangi said. While it’s big in the music and games businesses, Marangi said he believes the old Columbia Pictures business, now Sony Pictures, is an area that Sony would love to grow.
Under former Sony Picture Entertainment CEO Tony Vinciquerra, the company pursued an “arms dealer” strategy, producing content for platforms it didn’t own. Marangi said Sony’s strategy is now evolving.
“They’re more likely to be a buyer of assets than a seller of assets or a simple provider of arms,” he said. “They’ve been smart, and they’ve been focused. They’ve concentrated on certain niches.”
Another media company worth watching is TelevisaUnivision.
“They’ve cleaned up their balance sheet. It’s under new leadership. And at some point, it will probably be sold,” Marangi said. “It’s a unique platform because it reaches almost 800 million Spanish speakers around the world. It is a diversified business because it includes the traditional broadcast business in the United States, but it’s primarily a content engine for Spanish-language content.”
Who’s buying?
In looking at the value of media assets, the question arises whether there are still deep-pocketed investors interested in a show business that seems to be contracting. One could still be Netflix, which bowed out of the bidding war for WBD.
“So I would think that they would potentially be interested in the right asset at the right price,” he said. “And then the same could be said of a lot of big tech companies who have very, very large balance sheets, very large market capitalization. So it’s not inconceivable that they could be interested in a Disney studio and streaming business.”
Tech giant Amazon snapped up MGM in 2022 for $8.45 billion. “Disney is an asset that would move the needle for most companies,” he said.
While traditional media has largely been downgraded by investors, there are segments of the entertainment sector that remain attractive to Gabelli, particularly sports and live entertainment, Marangi said.
“Obviously, sports franchises don’t necessarily generate a lot of free cash flow, but they have proven to be excellent stores of value, as illustrated by San Diego Padres trading last week for $3.9 billion,” he said.
There are a limited number of sports assets that are publicly traded. Marangi pointed to the Atlanta Braves baseball teams, Madison Square Garden Sports, Manchester United and Rogers Communications, which owns the MLB Blue Jays, NBA Raptors and NHL Maple Leafs as options.
Rogers is talking about spinning off its sports assets, opening the door for investors.
Despite a recent court ruling that it was engaged in anticompetitive practices, Live Nation is also a play in live events.
“Long term, it’s a very valuable flywheel,” Marangi said. “And there’s, there are secular tailwinds for those who wish to pay a lot of money to see artists in person, and that’s not going to change with AI. In fact, it could become more valuable as AI becomes more predominant.”
There have always been those who want to invest in media and entertainment because it is exciting to be part of showbiz and rub elbows with celebrities. That’s not Gabelli’s continuing interest in media and entertainment, Marangi said. “What’s sexy to us is free cash flow, no matter what, no matter its source.”

As part of the launch of The Ledger, we’re also introducing TheWrap20 Entertainment Index, made up of the market capitalization of the top 20 companies in the industry and using a proprietary weighting system that gives you a good temperature check on how Wall Street feels about Hollywood.
The companies that make up the index include Alphabet, Amazon, AMC Entertainment, AMC Global Media, Apple, Comcast, Fox Corp., Lionsgate, Meta, Netflix, News Corp., New York Times, Paramount, Roku, Spotify, Sony, Starz, Versant, Walt Disney Co. and Warner Bros. Discovery.
Check back weekly to see how the index is performing.


Economic uncertainty and pressure on consumer sentiment will be dogging media companies as they report first-quarter earnings, according to analyst Robert Fishman of MoffettNathanson.
So far, advertising revenues have been steady, but “we cannot ignore some risk to second-quarter numbers if the situation escalates,” Fishman said. “In addition, lower consumer sentiment could begin to show cracks in even this last pillar of support along with willingness to spend on subscription streaming services.”
Fishman said the Olympics have given Comcast’s NBCUniversal most of the upside in the first quarter. In terms of national advertising, Fishman forecasted that cable networks will be down 11.2% while broadcast networks will be up 19.5%. Total national advertising will be up 5.7%. But without NBCU Olympic dollars, broadcast will be down 8.4% and total national ad revenue will drop 9.7% from a year ago.
Streaming ad revenues for Netflix, Roku and the traditional media companies will be up 31% (21.2% ex Olympics).
The TV business’ other sources of revenue are mixed with affiliate fees down 3% and retrans up 7.9%. Taking out Olympic-related revenue, total affiliate fees and retrans will be down 2.1%, Fishman projects.
MoffettNathanson has buy ratings on Netflix, Disney, Live Nation, Cinemark and Comcast.

Paramount Skydance’s $81 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery hit another wrinkle as Paramount disclosed foreign investors would own 49.5% of Paramount equity.
- The would-be acquirer asked the Federal Communications Commission to permit the deal. The FCC’s rule bars foreign investors from owning more than 25% of companies that own broadcast licenses. Paramount owns CBS, which has 28 owned and operated stations
- The Saudi Arabia Public Investment Fund, Qatar Investment Authority and L’imad Holding Co. of Abu Dhabi have put up about $24 billion to help finance the deal, and would control 38.5% of the shares, although in a non-voting capacity.
- Will the government approve? Paramount, controlled by the Ellison family, has been cozying up to the Trump administration. David Ellison attended a White House state dinner for King Charles III and FCC Chairman Brendan Carr was a guest of CBS at last weekend’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner. That’s not to mention the Ellison-hosted DC dinner honoring Trump in the days before the WHCD. We’ll see if that’s enough to open the Strait of Zaslav.
The debate over whether or not YouTube is or isn’t TV was overshadowed by the first-quarter numbers reported by parent company Alphabet. YouTube ad revenues were up 10.7% to $9.89 billion, so advertisers are clearly liking what they see.
- “We’re in an unmatched position to connect brands with the audiences they care about in the moment they engage in,” said Philipp Schindler, senior VP and chief business officer of Google. AI will widen the margin: “We are applying Gemini to drive better matching and discovery between brands and creators of all sizes.”
- Overall, Alphabet revenues were up 22% to $109.9 billion, and net income increased 81% with earnings per share rising 82% to $5.11.
On Amazon’s call, CEO Andy Jassy called out highlights in the company’s entertainment and advertising businesses.
- “Moviegoers have flocked to ‘Project Hail Mary’ with nearly $615 million in global box office to date. Its opening weekend was the second biggest for any non-sequel, non-franchise film in the last decade,” Jassy said. “We also surpassed 100 million viewers globally for the ‘Culpables’ movie trilogy, with all three films reaching No. 1 in more than 170 countries at launch. In live sports, we offered exclusive coverage of the NBA SoFi Play-In Tournament with total viewership up 18% compared to last year on cable.”
- Jassy noted that Amazon Ads revenue was up 22% to $17.2 billion and he highlighted new deals with Netflix, Comcast and Samsung.
- Amazon net income rose to $2.78 per share from $1.59 a share a year ago as sales rose 17% to $181 billion.

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Entertainment
With ‘Primetime,’ Robert Pattinson is 2026’s Biggest Box Office Star
Robert Pattinson has been a star since he first locked eyes on Kristen Stewart in 2008’s “Twilight.” As Edward Cullen, a vampire blessed with brooding, Byronic good looks, Pattinson captivated audiences, becoming a heartthrob for a rising generation of moviegoers.
But you sensed that he wasn’t entirely comfortable with being a pin-up, and Pattinson used his newfound bankability to build a resume filled with oddball roles for edgy auteurs like David Cronenberg (“Cosmopolis”), Claire Denis (“High Life”), and Robert Eggers (“The Lighthouse”). Critics praised the work, but only the most ardent Pattinson heads turned out and most of the films were more admired than seen.
That started to change when Pattinson re-embraced mainstream cinema; first with 2020’s “Tenet” and then with 2022’s “The Batman,” in which he played Bruce Wayne as a billionaire in desperate need of counseling. And Pattinson’s star has risen to a whole new level this year, with “The Drama,” “The Odyssey,” and now “Primetime.”
“Primetime,” produced for just $15 million and starring Pattinson as a creepy “To Catch a Predator” host Chris Hansen, opened to an impressive $19.2 million. The journalism drama was able to outperform expectation because Gen Z, which has become the most reliable moviegoing force, turned up in droves to watch a movie about a TV show that was popular when they were kids. In fact, 69% of the opening weekend crowd was under the age of 30 and you get a sense that they have come of age with Pattinson. First getting introduced to him as “Twilight’s” swooning bloodsucker and keeping tabs on him over the years as they came of age as film lovers.
It’s Pattinson’s second big hit of the year for A24. In the spring, he and Zendaya drove the dark relationship comedy “The Drama” to an impressive $134.9 million globally. It cost a mere $28 million to produce, so will be highly profitable for the indie studio. There’s just something about Pattinson’s intensity and willingness to subvert his movie star image that seems to be perfectly aligned with A24’s hip and transgressive brand.
And while Pattinson doesn’t get credit for the box office performance of “The Odyssey” (that belongs to Christopher Nolan), its success only burnishes his movie star image. It will get another gloss when “Dune: Part Three” opens in December and when “The Batman: Part II” rolls into theaters in 2028.
For more than a decade, agents and analysts have decried the death of the movie star. They’ve noted that no one has come on the scene to replace aging icons like Leonardo DiCaprio, Tom Cruise, and Brad Pitt. That may be changing. Like his “Dune” co-star, Timothée Chalamet, Pattinson, has finally figured out a way to make challenging, provocative work that general audiences will embrace, as well as cinephiles.
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movies
FilmNation CEO Glen Basner Talks Art Of Film Sales, Financing
FilmNation Entertainment Founder and CEO Glen Basner will receive the Game Changer Award this evening at the Zurich Summit, the annual industry event aimed at fostering transatlantic connections taking place within the Zurich Film Festival.
As part of the honor, Basner participated in an onstage conversation on Saturday moderated by German Oscar-winning director Edward Berger.
Over the course of an hour, the pair dug into Basner’s trajectory from sales rep at his father’s garment business, to heading up one of the world’s top international indie sales, financing and production companies.
Basner and Berger go back a long way, having first met at the beginning of their film careers in the early 1990s at famed New York production company Good Machine.
Basner arrived there from a five-year stint selling ladies knitted sweaters. He had been bitten by the movie bug while helping childhood friend Edward Burns in his spare time on his first film The Brothers McMullen. Burns then invited Basner onto his second feature She’s The One, which was produced by Good Machine. The rest is history.
Berger spent a year and a half at the company from 1994, where his paths crossed with Basner. They have stayed connected ever since, with the pair joining forces professionally again on Berger’s 2024 $100M global box office and streaming hit Conclave.
“32 years later, it’s such a full circle moment,” said Berger as they kicked off the conversation.
Looking back at his time working with Ted Hope, James Schamus and David Linde at Good Machine, Basner said the lessons he learned there had carried him through his career.
“I was taught that you could sell movies around the world and not lie to people… that you can value and appreciate the relationships that you develop around the world and treat people not just as if you’re selling them a product, but that you are really delivering them a work of art, and that you’re there to help support them as they go and release the films country by country.”
Berger suggested working there had also taught them reliance, recalling how just prior to their arrival, the company had nearly gone bankrupt after it wrapped Ang Lee’s romantic comedy The Wedding Banquet.
“It taught us to go through hard times and get stronger… around the time of The Wedding Banquet, the company was basically bankrupt… they decided let’s cancel the photocopier and scrape every last bit together and go to Berlin,” said the director.
The film went on to win the Berlinale’s Golden Bear and then took off at the box office to gross some $23M, against the $1M budget, making it the most profitable U.S. film of 1993.
After subsequent stints heading up sales at Focus and then The Weinstein Company, Basner created FilmNation in 2008, initially uniquely as a sales company.
He said creating his own company had been a natural move for him given his family background.
“My father had his own business, and I wanted to be like my father, so I always had this entrepreneurial bug that I wanted to go out and sort of really test my mettle by being on my own and developing something and seeing if it could succeed,” he said. “So that was something I thought about since the first day that I started working in film.”
Eighteen years later, the company has expanded organically into finance, production and TV, with bases in New York and L.A., and string of award-winning features in its filmography including The Big Sick, Promising Young Woman, Anora, Conclave, Maria and upcoming pictures Bunker, Talent for Murder and I Play Rocky to name but a few.
“The opportunity was clear in 2008. In those days, there were only two strong and dominant, excellent American international sales companies that were unaffiliated with U.S. distribution,” said Basner.
“Pretty much at the same time, they both became U.S. distributors. Summit, which was run by Patrick Wachberger, became a U.S. distributor, and Mandate, Joe Drake’s company, was bought by Lionsgate… so there was this big hole for an American, unaffiliated-with-distribution sales company.”
Sales craft
Talking about FilmNation’s recent slate, Basner said he had wooed Florian Zeller ahead of getting involved in Bunker.
“I told him to his face he was my filmmaker crush of the moment,” he joked.
“You said that to me too,” replied Berger in mock disbelief.
“I know. It was a different moment,” fired back Basner jovially.
He recalled how Zeller had been on the cusp of approaching Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz as FilmNation quietly putting out international sales feelers.
“He had said, ‘If they say yes, we’ll move forward. If they don’t do the movie, I don’t think I’m going to do the movie.’ Fortunately, they said yes, and then we just really started the work,” said Basner.
The film took a traditional pre-sales route thanks to Zeller’s track-record with Oscar-winner The Father, followed by The Son, it’s A-list cast and a “exquisite” script, with the bulk of the international sales tied up at Cannes in 2025. The U.S. deal to Sony Pictures Classics was sealed in collaboration with CAA Media Finance later on, on the basis of the completed film.
“There were distributors that were willing to take the risk. It’s not the easiest thing to say: ‘Here’s the script, here’s the director, here are the actors, and here’s your price’. They don’t really get to sit and have hour-long conversations with the filmmaker to fully understand the movie,” said Basner .
“They have to trust us to be able to articulate exactly what the movie is and what the intention is of that filmmaker, so that they can then decide to take the significant risk on a movie like this of pre-buying the film.”
Talking about their collaboration on Vatican-set thriller Conclave, revolving around the secretive Vatican process of electing a new Pope, Basner said part of the challenge had been conveying Berger’s vision for the film to buyers.
He suggested that on the basis of the screenplay alone – it felt like a story about “a bunch of old men talking in rooms” with a potential $12M to $15M price tag.
“But that really wasn’t the movie that you were looking to make… You talked about The Parallax View being a point of reference for you,” said Basner, referring to Alan J. Pakula’s 1974 political thriller.
“You talked not just about the architecture of the locations, but the architecture of how you wanted the camera to move and the film to feel… all of a sudden this became a political thriller,” continued Basner.
The sales veteran said estimating a value of a film, country by country, came down to a mixture of experience and expertise.
“You’re responsible to hit these estimates. And human nature takes over, and sometimes you can get a little bit conservative to make sure that you deliver,’ he said.
“What we’ve learned over the years is to trust the business acumen and the marketplace experience that we have, and not be too conservative, but actually just deliver the valuation that we think, and be prepared to stand by it in a real way because it’s our money that we’re investing.”
“Part of that is, instead of talking all the time about what the market says and what the market will bear, it’s really about just sitting and listening to the filmmaking team so that you really understand, not what I, Glen Basner, thinks the movie is going to be or should be, but the movie that the filmmaker wants to make.”
Basner revealed he was wary of going down the packaging route of attaching known talent when helping get big projects of the ground, suggesting attempts to mitigate risks on films, whether via the cast or other factors, can sometimes lead to less exciting films.
“Sometimes we have to take more risk on an unknown actor because they are the best person for that role to make the best version of the movie, and we have to trust that filmmaker to deliver on that, not in a naive way, in a thoughtful way, but really trust that that’s really what’s going to drive the value for that movie,” said Basner.
“I really am encouraging everybody to look around, look at what’s working in the marketplace. There are a lot of films that, on paper, did not make sense. The history of our company is predominantly on films that did not make sense to the marketplace at the beginning.”
Conclave clash
Berger revealed they had not always seen eye-to-eye in the final stages of bringing Conclave to fruition.
“After quite a long edit… I was basically done with the film. I’d run out of ideas… I really wanted to go to Venice or at least show them the movie and see if they’d show it,” recalled Berger.
“This was in in May. Glenn got on the phone and made me furious. I hated him. He just kind of said, ‘I’m not sure the movie’s ready, don’t rush it…Venice is going to be expensive, and we don’t have American distribution in place’,” he recalled.
Lead producer Tessa Ross also felt the movie was “missing something” and after test screenings with friends and family sparked an “ok” response, Berger went back to the edit suite and even reshot one or two scenes.
Berger credited Berger and Ross for pushing the extra mile on the film, while his energy levels were low after an arduous months-long edit process.
“We just edited and edited and edited and made the music again and revised it, and finally something cracked… little things, just shifted and gave us the confidence that the movie was ready. But it was really half a year later.”
It was another full circle moment for Berger
“This is going back to Good Machine, and what I took from Good Machine… which was you can always do better… whether its budget, contract or the cut of the movie.”
Organic expansion
Taking stock of FilmNation’s trajectory since 2008, Basner said the expansion into production and TV had been organic.
“We never really anticipated becoming the company that we have over time, but things changed. One, as we continued to do our jobs and have success, we gained confidence through experience, and we were ready to do things like fund our own films,” he said.
A second development was the convergence of film and TV and other entertainment formats, which has seen the company also embrace TV, podcasts and theater, while retaining its original mission of being a place that enables filmmakers to not just make their film, but to make the very best iteration of their film.
“When we’re at our best, that’s exactly what we’re doing. It’s no more complicated than that. And when we are doing it, nothing feels more rewarding than doing that job well,” he said.
Looking to near-term goals, Basner said the company was ramping up its productions in the arrival of former 20th Century Fox, DreamWorks and Universal Pictures exec Stacey Snider in the new role of Chief Creative Officer in January.
“We are being more ambitious by investing more and making more films. This year we will make four films and a television series, and next year we already have four films in pre-production and hope to make another three,” said Basner.
“The arrival of Snider as the Chief Creative Officer was an articulation of our desire to take more risk and to be more productive,” he continued.
“Working with her these last nine months, you see this incredible creative talent, you see a skill set and a maturity that we don’t have ourselves, or that I don’t have myself, and it is definitely building confidence to invest further. But it’s really also, as she would say, it’s about making it better. The conversation that you had before: let’s take another look at this. Let’s do it a little bit better. That’s something she reminds me pretty much every day.”
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movies
Federal Film TV Tax Credit: Execs On Impact, Timeline, Price Rises
At this weekend’s Zurich Summit a group of film financiers were asked by Deadline for their thoughts on the prospects of a U.S. federal film incentive.
Last week, a bipartisan group of lawmakers unveiled the bill for a 20% incentive, which with bonuses could bring the total rebate to 30%. The move has long been called-for by the U.S. industry concerned by the exodus of production overseas.
Alex Walton, former Co-Lead & Partner at WME Independent, told the Summit the move was “hugely positive”: “It’s wild to think there hasn’t been an efficient tax credit in America. It has helped many other countries. Spain is booming because of it now; and all over Europe. It’s going to take some time to be realized and for financial institutions to be able to cash flow it. But you’ve got to believe it will happen within the next three-four years, and then that will see all the foreign tax credits compete harder to maintain their positions.”
A start date is not yet set. The proposed text from last week stated that the credit would apply to qualifying film and TV productions beginning in taxable years after December 31, 2026 (effectively targeting projects starting in 2027). But bills can take years to pass.
Andrea Scarso, Managing Partner at prolific financier IPR.VC, whose credits include Marty Supreme and Materialists, agreed that a U.S. incentive would be “positive” but also cautioned against rising production costs: “It remains to be seen whether the prices and budgets are also going up by the same amount, which is something that happens in some foreign territories when they increase the amount of tax credit or soft money. It’s always a balance. But overall, I think it’s good news.”
Sarah Schweitzman, Co-Head CAA Media Finance, noted: “What’s important is that when you look at some of the international markets, you realize that we’re making movies there because of a tax incentive situation and I think if we’re able to federalize a tax incentive program in the U.S. it’s going to create many more jobs and invigorate crews, which is something we absolutely need in the U.S.”
A recent Motion Picture Association study claimed that a federal film tax credit could increase U.S. production spending by $125BN and add more than 143,000 jobs by 2035.
You can read more about the bill here.
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