Welcome back to The Athletic’s title-race tracker, where our data and tactics writers analyse the key trends behind the two-horse race for the Premier League crown.

With just three weeks to go until the season finale on May 24, Arsenal have taken a huge step towards securing their first title in 22 years. Their comfortable 3-0 home win against Fulham last Saturday, coupled with Manchester City’s stumble at Everton on the Monday night, leaves Mikel Arteta’s side in control.

Both sides are in action this weekend, before City play their game in hand on Arsenal against visitors Crystal Palace on Wednesday. The Athletic looks at form and fixture difficulty, and checks in with the Opta supercomputer, to try to predict who will come out on top.

What has changed since the last matchweek?

Reports of Arsenal’s demise were greatly exaggerated: they have wrestled back control of the title race. The victory over Fulham, coupled with City dropping points in that 3-3 draw at Everton, has placed the north Londoners firmly back in the driving seat. They are now five points clear with three games to go (for them), although City can cut that gap to two by winning their game in hand in midweek.

After that 2-1 defeat away to City last month, Arsenal’s subsequent 1-0 home win against Newcastle United still felt like the performance of a team acutely aware of the pressure mounting around them, with the Emirates Stadium crowd’s tetchiness palpable.

That changed at the same venue last Saturday, when Arteta’s side blew Fulham away. Confidence surged further on Tuesday night, after a 1-0 victory over Spanish side Atletico Madrid secured their passage to a first Champions League final in 20 years. The nervous tension that had enveloped the Emirates was banished, replaced by a carnival atmosphere.

The mood music at City, meanwhile, is noticeably more subdued, although Jeremy Doku’s last-gasp curling equaliser on Merseyside did keep their hopes alive.

Who is looking stronger?

There is a fair argument to suggest that Arsenal’s defeat of Fulham was their most fluent attacking display of the season.

The numbers certainly back that up.

They racked up their highest xG value of the Premier League campaign, and scored three first-half goals in a league game for the first time since November 2024, easing away from Marco Silva’s side and allowing them to withdraw the likes of Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyokeres and Declan Rice early ahead of their Champions League semi-final decider in midweek.

Saka looked back to his best on the flanks, leaving Raul Jimenez on the floor as he chopped onto his right foot and fired the ball across goal for Gyokeres to tap home the opening goal, before pitching in with a well-taken finish at the near post himself to double the lead.

But perhaps the most pleasing display came from Myles Lewis-Skelly, starting his first game in midfield this season. Only centre-back William Saliba completed more passes than the 19-year-old, while he was involved in the most possession sequences, jumping from space to space in midfield and knitting together Arsenal’s most threatening passing moves.

As we can see from the pass network below, Lewis-Skelly frequently dropped deep to pick possession up from Gabriel in central defence, and worked to progress the ball to the likes of Rice and Eberechi Eze, who drifted over to Saka’s side to help establish Arsenal’s swirling right-hand side that has made them look so dangerous under Arteta over the years.

It looked as if the shackles were off for Arsenal, and although they have the luxury of not having to rely on goal difference to seal the title anymore, they seem good value to add a few more goals before the season is out.

Up at Hill Dickinson Stadium two days later, lapses in concentration across their defence saw City’s six-game winning run grind to a halt.

Pep Guardiola’s side largely controlled the first half, seeing 76 per cent of the possession and amassing 12 shots as they headed into the break with a one-goal cushion, courtesy of Doku’s pinpoint left-footed finish.

But things quickly began to unravel after Marc Guehi underhit a back pass to goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, allowing Thierno Barry to steal in and equalise. Everton generated 82 per cent of their expected goals after the hour mark, sensing City’s vulnerability and asserting themselves physically. They packed the penalty area as Jake O’Brien rose highest to power them in front, while Merlin Rohl broke free from Mateo Kovacic in the build-up to their third.

It remains to be seen whether Doku’s 97th-minute leveller represents a significant point for City, but there is no doubt that this feels like two more dropped.

Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?

When it comes to fixtures, Arsenal hold the upper hand, at least on paper.

Based on the average Opta Power Ranking of their final games, no Premier League club have an easier run-in, with all three of Arsenal’s remaining matches coming against teams currently in the bottom six.

But motivations diverge wildly at this stage of a season, making fixture difficulty tricky to assess.

Take Fulham, Arsenal’s opponents from last Saturday. No Premier League side are more regularly accused of being “on the beach” as campaigns draw to a close. A record of just four wins from their past 18 fixtures played in May reflects a club who often end up stuck in that liminal space between European qualification and the relegation zone.

Next up for Arsenal is an away game against West Ham United, a side nobody could accuse of lacking motivation at this point in the season. The east London club are desperately fighting for Premier League survival and fell back into the relegation zone last weekend. It is likely to be Arsenal’s toughest remaining test, although their last two visits to the London Stadium have ended in 5-2 and 6-0 away victories.

On the other hand, their final-Sunday trip to Selhurst Park might sound tricky, but Palace are likely to rotate their team heavily in that one, with a Conference League final against Rayo Vallacano of Spain three days after.

City also play Palace in their rescheduled game in hand, from Carabao Cup final weekend in March, which was finally confirmed this week for next Wednesday, May 13 — three days before they play in the FA Cup final. Guardiola’s side then face a daunting trip to sixth-placed Bournemouth three days after that meeting with Chelsea at Wembley. The visit of Brentford this weekend is no easy task either, given their guests are seventh and also harbour European ambitions.

Rounding out City’s season is a home match against Aston Villa.

On paper, Villa are their toughest remaining opponents, but there is a decent chance they will have already achieved their objective of qualifying for the 2026-27 Champions League by then, leaving the game with little riding on it beyond pride for Unai Emery’s side. That match is also being played just four days after the Europa League final, with all the emotion that will entail.

What does the supercomputer say?

The Opta supercomputer, as it has since the middle of October, still believes the advantage lies with Arsenal.

The strength of that belief has fluctuated, dipping sharply after their March defeat by City before rising again in recent weeks. It now stands at 86 per cent, an assessment that reflects both Arsenal’s points advantage and easier remaining fixtures.