(Alamy)

3 min read12 min

The centre-left, pro-independence party, led by Rhun ap Iowerth, has won over 35 per cent of the vote, making it the largest party in the Senedd.

Reform UK came second on just below 30 per cent of the vote, while Labour and the Conservatives both suffered dramatic falls in support.

The result on Friday means that Labour will not rule in Wales for the first time since its devolved institutions were set up at the turn of the century. One of the Labour Senedd members to lose their seat was Eluned Morgan, the current first minister.

The results are as follows:

Plaid Cymru: 43 seats (35.4 per cent)

Reform UK: 34 seats (29.3 per cent)

Labour: 9 seats (11.1 per cent)

Conservative: 7 seats (10.7 per cent)

Green: 2 seats (6.7 per cent)

Lib Dems: 1 (4.5 per cent)

Plaid is six seats off forming a majority in the Senedd and is expected to agree on a coalition government with Welsh Labour. Leader ap Iowerth told reporters today he was willing to “reach out” to other parties to form a government in Cardiff.

At a press conference, the Plaid leader said Wales needed a government that represented the “change” which the country voted for.

“We could all see it. We could all sense it. Wales demanded a new beginning.

“And now a new dawn beckons. But we have not yet reached the destination. Far from it. We’re just setting out on our journey, and we set off with new leadership, with new energy and new ideas.”

In an interview with The House magazine at the end of last year, the Plaid leader compared his party’s rise to that of New York’s left-wing mayor, Zohran Mamdani.

Morgan took responsibility for the result and did not lay the blame on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose position is coming under renewed pressure amid major Labour losses across the UK.

But the result in Wales is particularly tricky for Starmer, with the country having historically been a deeply-rooted heartland for Labour.

Morgan and all of her predecessors have been Labour. Even as Labour collapsed in Scotland in 2015, and then saw its historic dominance in post-industrial parts of northern England fall away nearly a decade later, its vote managed to hold up in Wales.

The party’s founder, Keir Hardie, represented the Welsh mining town of Merthyr Tydfil, and some of its most high-profile figures, like former prime minister Jim Callaghan, have strong links with Wales.

The result represented another major electoral breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which has cemented its status as the main challenger on the centre right of Welsh politics.

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John Swinney had aimed for 65 seats or more and pinned his independence hopes on that.

But with almost all constituencies now declared and regions still to come, it appears the party can achieve minority government at best.

The SNP has won as many as 55 seats so far, winning Shetland from the Liberal Democrats for the first time.

But it has also suffered losses, with the Western Isles going to Labour, Strathkelvin and Bearsden won by the Lib Dems, and Angus Robertson losing to Lorna Slater of the Scottish Greens in Edinburgh Central.

And while Anas Sarwar conceded that Labour had lost the election early in the day, there was some relief in Dumbarton, where deputy leader Jackie Baillie doubled her majority to around 2,000 votes.

Kaukab Stewart lost her bid for Nicola Sturgeon’s vacant Glasgow Southside seat, which went to local Green councillor Holly Bruce.

It is the first time the Scottish Greens have won constituencies, while Reform UK has so far been unable to achieve the same feat.

With some results still to come, the Lib Dems are currently the second largest party on five seats, followed by the Tories on four, Labour on three and the Greens on two.

The SNP has continued its dominance in “Yes city” Dundee, where it held both city seats, and seen its Westminster leader Stephen Flynn win entry to the Scottish Parliament in Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine.

And its performance comes after almost 20 years in power, and following an election in which its record in government came under question.

Polls suggested the party was on track to become the biggest party and Swinney’s confidence was clear early in the day, when he said he was “absolutely certain the SNP is going to be the leading party coming out of this election”.

It is the first Scottish Parliament election Swinney has fought since taking over as leader of his party in 2024. That move came just a few short weeks before the 2024 general election, in which the SNP’s formidable MP group was reduced to just nine.

Succeeding Humza Yousaf as the third SNP first minister of the last parliamentary term, Swinney promised to unify his warring party and return government focus to delivery. 

Commenting on the results as they unfolded, he said the were “a reflection of the work that we’ve undertaken to rebuild public confidence and trust in the SNP”. 

Reform UK’s Scottish leader Malcolm Offord expressed disappointment that his party had not secured a constituency seat. Offord stood in Inverclyde, which was held by the SNP’s Stuart MacMillan, who is also the Scottish Parliament piper.

This article first appeared on Holyrood.

Reform UK has claimed yet another Tory stronghold (Alamy)

3 min read6 min

Not just because the Tories had controlled the council for 25 years. But also because the county is home to the constituencies of ten Conservative MPs, six of whom are shadow cabinet ministers – including Badenoch herself.

Former cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Priti Patel, both senior members of Badenoch’s shadow front bench, are also Essex MPs.

It was confirmed on Friday that Nigel Farage’s insurgent party won 53 of Essex County Council’s 78 seats, with the Conservatives dropping to 13 from the 52 they won in 2021.

Five years ago, the Tories were riding high in the opinion polls, with the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, enjoying what was widely described as a coronavirus vaccine bounce.

Now, however, the Conservatives are struggling to move on from their 2024 general election loss, with Badenoch’s steadily improving ratings seemingly failing to translate into an improved party brand.

The graphic below illustrates the scale of both the Reform rise and the Tory collapse.

In the run-up to 7 May, Conservatives in areas where they are electorally vulnerable, such as Essex, told PoliticsHome they were worried that the party was being complacent about this set of local elections.

The Tories have also lost control of Hampshire for the first time in almost 30 years, with the council now in no overall control.

Here, the party lost votes not just to Reform but to the Liberal Democrats, too, demonstrating that, like Labour, the Conservatives face electoral threats from different directions.

Farage’s party also took control of Suffolk County Council, overturning a 20-year run for the Conservatives. Reform took 41 seats on the council, with the Tories pushed down into single digits, returning just nine seats.

Speaking earlier today, Badenoch insisted that the results declared at the time showed that the Conservatives are “coming back” after their heavy defeat two years ago.

While the Tories are bleeding votes to both Reform and the Lib Dems nationwide, and are expected to suffer more pain in Scotland and Wales on Friday night, they have reasons for optimism in London, where, at the time of writing, they have won Westminster and gained eight seats in Wandsworth to push it into no overall control.

Defending Badenoch earlier this week, a senior Conservative MP acknowledged that 7 May was “going to be very bad” for the Tories, but said “there is nothing that can be done” given the situation the party is in, namely, still in the process of rebuilding public trust after being emphatically removed from office less than two years ago.

“I see this as something we have got to live through to get to the other side,” they told PoliticsHome.