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Politics Home Article | The Reform Wave Reaches Kemi Badenoch’s Backyard

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The Reform Wave Reaches Kemi Badenoch's Backyard

Reform UK has claimed yet another Tory stronghold (Alamy)


3 min read

Reform’s dominant victory in Essex will likely be one of the local election results most worrying Kemi Badenoch.

Not just because the Tories had controlled the council for 25 years. But also because the county is home to the constituencies of ten Conservative MPs, six of whom are shadow cabinet ministers – including Badenoch herself.

Former cabinet ministers James Cleverly and Priti Patel, both senior members of Badenoch’s shadow front bench, are also Essex MPs.

It was confirmed on Friday that Nigel Farage’s insurgent party won 53 of Essex County Council’s 78 seats, with the Conservatives dropping to 13 from the 52 they won in 2021.

Five years ago, the Tories were riding high in the opinion polls, with the then prime minister, Boris Johnson, enjoying what was widely described as a coronavirus vaccine bounce.

Now, however, the Conservatives are struggling to move on from their 2024 general election loss, with Badenoch’s steadily improving ratings seemingly failing to translate into an improved party brand.

The graphic below illustrates the scale of both the Reform rise and the Tory collapse.

parliament visualization

In the run-up to 7 May, Conservatives in areas where they are electorally vulnerable, such as Essex, told PoliticsHome they were worried that the party was being complacent about this set of local elections.

The Tories have also lost control of Hampshire for the first time in almost 30 years, with the council now in no overall control.

Here, the party lost votes not just to Reform but to the Liberal Democrats, too, demonstrating that, like Labour, the Conservatives face electoral threats from different directions.

Farage’s party also took control of Suffolk County Council, overturning a 20-year run for the Conservatives. Reform took 41 seats on the council, with the Tories pushed down into single digits, returning just nine seats.

Speaking earlier today, Badenoch insisted that the results declared at the time showed that the Conservatives are “coming back” after their heavy defeat two years ago.

While the Tories are bleeding votes to both Reform and the Lib Dems nationwide, and are expected to suffer more pain in Scotland and Wales on Friday night, they have reasons for optimism in London, where, at the time of writing, they have won Westminster and gained eight seats in Wandsworth to push it into no overall control.

Defending Badenoch earlier this week, a senior Conservative MP acknowledged that 7 May was “going to be very bad” for the Tories, but said “there is nothing that can be done” given the situation the party is in, namely, still in the process of rebuilding public trust after being emphatically removed from office less than two years ago.

“I see this as something we have got to live through to get to the other side,” they told PoliticsHome.

 

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Politics Home Article | Starmer Enters The Danger Zone

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Starmer Enters The Danger Zone


5 min read

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been put on notice by Labour MPs after a dismal set of local election results.

Speaking on Friday morning, he vowed not to “walk away” from No 10 after watching his party bleed support across the country, in multiple directions. “Tough days like this don’t weaken my resolve to deliver the change that I promised. They strengthen my resolve,” the PM said.

But by the end of the day, the pressure on his leadership had hit a new high, with Labour MPs who Starmer allies cannot simply dismiss as the usual suspects publicly declaring that he may have to stand down for the good of their party.

Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who co-chairs the Tribune group of soft left MPs, said Starmer cannot lead the party into the next year’s local elections, never mind the next general election, if he does not deliver an urgent change of course. 

She was followed by Sarah Owen, Chair of the Women and Equalities Committee, who agreed that Starmer will have to be removed from Downing Street unless he “delivers tangible change and truly connects with the public on a human level”.

Once Friday had drawn to a close, the list of Labour MPs who had publicly questioned whether Starmer should fight for the next election, or who had gone further and called on him to announce a departure timetable now, had grown significantly.

The concern for the PM and his allies as they head into the weekend will be that patience is wearing thin across the Parliamentary Labour Party, not just in a single section of it.

As one senior Labour MP put it to PoliticsHome on Friday: “It’s easier when one person has moved… I don’t think it’s factional, it’s a broad feeling.”

“This is not just the left of the party,” warned a different Labour MP. 

Meanwhile, a typically loyal Labour minister told PoliticsHome: “It’s time to go. I don’t care who [comes next].”

Labour has lost over 1,400 council seats across England at the time of writing, with the results confirming party strategists’ worst fears that it is haemorrhaging support both to the Greens on its left and Reform UK on its right. In Wales, where Labour has been in power since the turn of the century, and has deep historical links, it has plummeted to a distant third place.

“We can’t do another election like this,” said the senior Labour MP quoted above. “It’s not fair to the people we represent. It’s not fair to the councillors and the handful of activists we have left.”

PoliticsHome understands that one proposal that is being pushed by Labour MPs who want a resignation timetable is for Starmer to resign by the end of the year.

This, in theory, would allow for what is being described as an orderly transition, while also giving Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham enough time to find a vacant House of Commons seat and return to Parliament.

One publicly loyal minister said the local election results had made them “more pro-Burnham” than they were before. “How can you not be, frankly?”

Mainstream, the soft group with links to Burnham, is due to hold a call on Monday to discuss next steps, PoliticsHome understands, while the Red Wall caucus of Labour MPs representing seats in northern England and the Midlands will hold its own meeting on Wednesday.

Writing in The House on Friday, Ipsos’ Ben Roff said the polling company’s latest data shows that Labour cannot afford to ignore Burnham, arguing that he is best placed to help the party to win back progressive voters from the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.

The Times reported on Thursday that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband suggested to Starmer that he should consider setting out a timetable for his departure in a private conversation earlier this month. A spokesperson for Miliband said they did not accept this account of the conversation, but did tell the newspaper how it differed.

Starmer’s cabinet has publicly come to his defence as the Prime Minister looks to shore up his position in the coming days. “Keir has won before, he can win again. We need to deliver change, not chaos,” posted Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson. One of Labour’s worst results of the night came in Phillipson’s Sunderland, where Labour lost 49 councillors, and Reform won 58, giving Nigel Farage’s party control of the council.

Labour MPs most loyal to Starmer are trying to play down the 7 May results.

“It’s a bad set of results – but not as bad as was predicted”, one told PoliticsHome.

Another added: “I don’t believe the country will suddenly improve just by changing prime minister. Whoever carried the burden of leading Britain at this time would face the same set of challenges that Labour inherited two years ago.”

On Monday, Starmer is expected to give a speech designed to boost Labour MPs’ faith that he is still the best person to turn it around.

Labour MPs are urging the Prime Minister to be genuinely “bold” and “radical”, with one telling PoliticsHome that he should announce a policy to rejoin the European Union.

“Which number reset are we on now?” joked one of his backbenchers. 

Health Secretary Wes Streeting said Starmer would have his support when he delivers his speech, adding: I’ll continue putting my shoulder to the wheel as the Health and Social Care Secretary, who’s getting the NHS back on its feet and making sure it’s fit for the future.”

The third leading leadership contender, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, had not yet broken her silence as of early Saturday morning.

 

Additional reporting by Sienna Rodgers, Tom Scotson and Zoë Crowther

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Politics Home | Sadiq Khan Says Labour Faces “Existential” Crisis And Warns Greens Are The Biggest Threat

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Sadiq Khan Says Labour Faces 'Existential' Crisis And Warns Greens Are The Biggest Threat

Labour has suffered heavy losses in London (Alamy)


3 min read

London Mayor Sadiq Khan has warned that the Labour Party faces an “existential” threat nationwide, and described London’s results as “bitterly disappointing”.

With results still rolling in on Friday evening, Labour has suffered a day of heavy losses across the country, losing voters to both the left and right. Labour has also lost power in Wales – where it has formed the government ever since devolved institutions were set up at the turn of the century.

Reflecting on the results, Khan said that while mid-term elections can often be difficult for the government of the day, what Labour was seeing on Friday “is different”.

“These results speak to a far-reaching disillusionment and fracturing in our politics, which cannot be downplayed, spun or dismissed.”

The Mayor of London, whose relationship with the Labour government has reportedly become increasingly fractured, warned on Friday that the party’s election results in London were “bitterly disappointing”.

A YouGov MRP last month predicted that Labour’s control of London councils would fall from 21 to 15 at the elections, with the party losing six councils.

With results across the capital still being declared, Labour’s losses have already exceeded that prediction.

At the time of writing, results for 23 of the 32 London councils have been declared, with Labour set to lose control of Barnet, Brent, Enfield, Ealing, Hackney, Waltham Forest, Wandsworth, Westminster and Southwark.

map visualization

Khan said that the results would have a bruising effect on the capital: “Labour is only able to deliver when we win elections, whether that be general, mayoral or local. Losing control of councils in London will limit our ability to serve the public in the way we want.”

London Labour MPs have become increasingly concerned in recent months about the loss of councils in the capital, with PoliticsHome reporting on nervousness in City Hall last year about this set of elections.

The losses in London will also hit right at the heart of government, with four members of the cabinet serving as MPs in the capital, including Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Prime Minister Keir Starmer himself.

While the focus had been on the threat to Labour from Reform UK and the independent vote, the Greens have emerged as the biggest insurgent party in London.

Khan said: “Labour has lost votes in London to a variety of different parties, but the biggest change has been Labour voters switching to the Greens.”

Speaking about the country as a whole, Khan said that many people who had voted Labour in 2024 “clearly feel angry, disappointed and let down”.

“They want a Labour government to address the cost-of-living crisis while demonstrating the core values the party was established to promote,” he continued.

But Khan said that instead, “too many of the government’s achievements have been overshadowed by basic mistakes and a failure to boldly assert our progressive values.”

On London specifically, Khan said those in the capital “are also frustrated with the slow pace of change and are impatient to see the delivery they were promised”.

“London has been taken for granted for too long,” he continued.

“This must change. Without a change in course and an acceleration in delivery, the threat to Labour is existential. We risk a repeat in London, Wales and across England of what happened in Scotland, where we have still not recovered.”

“Labour is the only party capable of delivering the change our capital city and country needs, and the only party that can unite progressives and close the door to the darkness and division of Reform.  It’s time for us to be bold and show this to be true, before it’s too late.”

 

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Politics Home Article | Plaid Cymru On Course To Form Next Welsh Government

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Plaid Cymru On Course To Form Next Welsh Government

(Alamy)


3 min read

Plaid Cymru is on course to form the next Welsh government, ending Labour’s generational rule in Wales.

The centre-left, pro-independence party, led by Rhun ap Iowerth, has won over 35 per cent of the vote, making it the largest party in the Senedd.

Reform UK came second on just below 30 per cent of the vote, while Labour and the Conservatives both suffered dramatic falls in support.

The result on Friday means that Labour will not rule in Wales for the first time since its devolved institutions were set up at the turn of the century. One of the Labour Senedd members to lose their seat was Eluned Morgan, the current first minister.

The results are as follows:

Plaid Cymru: 43 seats (35.4 per cent)

Reform UK: 34 seats (29.3 per cent)

Labour: 9 seats (11.1 per cent)

Conservative: 7 seats (10.7 per cent)

Green: 2 seats (6.7 per cent)

Lib Dems: 1 (4.5 per cent)

Plaid is six seats off forming a majority in the Senedd and is expected to agree on a coalition government with Welsh Labour. Leader ap Iowerth told reporters today he was willing to “reach out” to other parties to form a government in Cardiff.

At a press conference, the Plaid leader said Wales needed a government that represented the “change” which the country voted for.

“We could all see it. We could all sense it. Wales demanded a new beginning.

“And now a new dawn beckons. But we have not yet reached the destination. Far from it. We’re just setting out on our journey, and we set off with new leadership, with new energy and new ideas.”

In an interview with The House magazine at the end of last year, the Plaid leader compared his party’s rise to that of New York’s left-wing mayor, Zohran Mamdani.

Morgan took responsibility for the result and did not lay the blame on Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose position is coming under renewed pressure amid major Labour losses across the UK.

But the result in Wales is particularly tricky for Starmer, with the country having historically been a deeply-rooted heartland for Labour.

Morgan and all of her predecessors have been Labour. Even as Labour collapsed in Scotland in 2015, and then saw its historic dominance in post-industrial parts of northern England fall away nearly a decade later, its vote managed to hold up in Wales.

The party’s founder, Keir Hardie, represented the Welsh mining town of Merthyr Tydfil, and some of its most high-profile figures, like former prime minister Jim Callaghan, have strong links with Wales.

The result represented another major electoral breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which has cemented its status as the main challenger on the centre right of Welsh politics.

 

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