A Premier League season is 380 games long, but it is the final 19 which now hold the potential to shape all that has gone before in the 2025-26 edition.

This campaign’s last dash will crown new champions to succeed Liverpool and push a member of English football’s establishment over the relegation cliff edge into the EFL. There might also be a Champions League debut secured, as well as fresh invites sent out to join the other two European competitions, all by the time the full-time whistles blow on the final round of fixtures on Sunday, May 24.

Here, The Athletic assesses where we are with the title race, European spots and relegation.

The league title

It has been a two-horse race for the majority of this season, and one of them has now kicked for the line. Arsenal’s dramatic victory against West Ham United last Sunday gave them a five-point lead over Manchester City, who kept up their pursuit with a 3-0 win against Brentford the previous evening.

City’s 3-0 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday meant they closed the gap to two points with two games remaining.

It is clear City cannot afford a single slip from here. Had they failed to beat Palace, Arsenal could have ended a 22-year wait to land English football’s biggest prize as soon as Monday night. But the comfortable victory denied Mikel Arteta’s side that chance.

Arsenal are aware that two wins from their final two games will be enough, but there is a chance they could be crowned champions without kicking another ball after that match at their Emirates Stadium.

If Arsenal get the better of Burnley then it could be that their big moment comes when Guardiola and company visit in-form Bournemouth on Tuesday. Anything but an away win there would start the celebrations in north London.

Should City beat Bournemouth, though, all roads will lead to the final day of the season on Sunday week: when they are at home to Aston Villa, and Arsenal go to Palace.

There would be scope, albeit unlikely, for further twists.

Arsenal drawing with Burnley and City beating Bournemouth would see the teams tied on 80 points heading into the final day, and the goal differences could be all square too. After the 3-0 win over Palace, City are one ahead on goal difference and seven ahead on goals scored.

Relegation

And then there were two. Crystal Palace, Leeds United and Nottingham Forest have all made their excuses and left the fight for Premier League survival, whittling it down to just two potential candidates to join Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Championship next season.

They are Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United, the two London rivals who began the season believing this would be an inglorious scrap for others to endure.

Spurs’ 1-1 draw with Leeds on Monday night has maintained anxiety levels, with another winless home game (the 16th in 18 league fixtures on their own pitch this season) meaning West Ham are still within touching distance of the only team they can catch.

West Ham’s trip to Newcastle United this afternoon now carries enormous significance. A win on Tyneside would lift them above Spurs, whose weekend fixture away to Chelsea has been pushed back to next Tuesday owing to their opponents featuring in Saturday’s FA Cup final.

Anything less, though, swings the door open for Spurs to clinch survival at Stamford Bridge. Beating Newcastle is now the only way West Ham can guarantee this fight goes to the final day.

Spurs’ current advantage of two points and a far superior goal difference leaves little margin for error in the West Ham camp. One misstep could now doom them, after back-to-back defeats against Brentford and Arsenal.

A draw at Chelsea ensures Spurs will retain control of their fate regardless of what West Ham do in Newcastle but that last Sunday has the potential to turn fans’ stomachs into washing machines. At the same time as West Ham are hosting Leeds, just seven miles away across London, Spurs will be at home to Everton.

Race for Europe

Now this is more complicated.

Results in this season’s European competitions have already guaranteed that the top five finishers in the table will feature in the 2026-27 Champions League, but the prospects of a sixth English team joining them have been reduced.

That eventuality needs Aston Villa to finish fifth and win the Europa League final against German side Freiburg in the Turkish city of Istanbul next Wednesday, May 20, but the 4-2 win over Liverpool on Friday night has made that outcome less likely. That result has guaranteed Villa a return to the Champions League and means a point in their final game, away to Manchester City, would confirm they finish fourth.

A Liverpool win at home to Brentford, coupled with Villa losing at Manchester City, would swing the door back open for sixth place squeezing into the Champions League but the complexities of UEFA’s European Performance Spots (EPS) system says another English team can only benefit if it is Villa, who must also win the Europa League, that finishes fifth.

Liverpool, stumbling towards the finish line, would finally wrap up Champions League football for next season if Bournemouth, currently sixth, are beaten by Manchester City on Tuesday and Brighton & Hove Albion, in seventh, fail to win at Leeds today. A Bournemouth win in midweek, though, might yet mean Liverpool have to beat Brentford at Anfield next Sunday.

Manchester City’s win over Chelsea in the FA Cup final yesterday ensures that there will currently be two Europa League places up for grabs in the Premier League over the next week. One of those (sixth) could become a Champions League berth in the event of Villa finishing fifth and winning the Europa League but the current standings would see sixth and seventh go to the Europa League (with the extra place coming from City winning the FA Cup) and eighth into the Conference League.

Brighton’s remaining matches, away to Leeds and at home to Manchester United, give them a strong chance of holding on to seventh, while Brentford, who are eighth and trailing Bournemouth by four points, are also still in the mix. Sixth will be out of reach if they lose to visitors Palace on Sunday.

Eighth is now sure to deliver European football through the Conference League, which means Chelsea, Everton, Fulham and Sunderland are all realistically still in the hunt. Everton and Sunderland face one another at the Hill Dickinson Stadium today.

Then, of course, there is the very real possibility of Palace also being in the Europa League next season, should they get the better of Spanish side Rayo Vallecano in the UEFA Conference League final in Leipzig, Germany, on Wednesday, May 27.

Clear? Hardly. But it soon will be.

You could be forgiven for missing the name. Once you’ve looked through the entire 18-man matchday squad of Metropolitan Police FC, and the entire 18-man matchday squad of Newport County, the 36th and final name on the list is there: Antoine Semenyo.

Seven and a half years before he was the FA Cup final’s winning goalscorer for Manchester City against Chelsea at Wembley, Semenyo made his FA Cup debut at the somewhat unlikely venue of Imber Court, just outside the borders of London, in Surrey.

Met Police FC are perhaps the least glamorous side in the entire footballing pyramid. Once literally the work team of London’s police force, today they’re a generic non-League outfit, although one still part-funded by the workforce’s lottery system. Perhaps the most notable thing about the club is that their all-time record goalscorer is Mario Russo, father of Arsenal Women and England striker Alessia Russo.

This season, Met Police have averaged a crowd of around 70 people, but more than 1,000 packed into Imber Court for that visit of Newport County in 2018, the PA system crackling out I Fought The Law by The Clash as the players came out of the tunnel in pouring rain. Semenyo was only given a seven-minute runout, during a loan at Newport from Bristol City.

And therefore Semenyo, more than anyone else on the pitch at Wembley on Saturday, knows what this competition is all about. It’s not just about Wembley, and it’s not just about what happens at cramped non-League venues in the first few months of the season. It’s about both: the concept that any club, in theory, can progress through the rounds to face Premier League opposition. In reality, clubs don’t progress all the way. But sometimes players do.

Semenyo had to do things the hard way. He was rejected by Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, Crystal Palace and Millwall in his teenage years.

“I went to so many clubs and it was the same result every time: ‘Yeah, not good enough. Come back in the next couple of months’,” Semenyo said in an interview with The Athletic in 2024. “It happened with Millwall four or five times and I ended up getting frustrated. They were scouting me every three months but every time I went for a trial, I was told I wasn’t good enough.” After being rejected by Palace, Semenyo spent the following year barely playing sport at all.

It was only after he moved from London to Swindon at 16 that his football career vaguely got back on track, albeit at the somewhat unpromising-sounding South Gloucestershire and Stroud College, at an age when most future top Premier League players are in academies. He owes much to the mentorship of the side’s coach, former Leeds United manager David Hockaday.

“A lot of people don’t bounce back,” Hockaday told The Athletic earlier this year. “Well, Antoine has bounced back to the nth degree… the journey that Antoine had is something of a throwback. I’m sure he’s been playing with groups of friends, experiencing rejection, and been resilient enough to overcome that.”

That Newport FA Cup run was the making of Semenyo. He started in the 4-0 win against fellow Welsh outfit Wrexham before their Hollywood takeover, and was then excellent in a classic giant-killing, when they a defeated a Leicester City side with a defence of four Premier League title winners: Danny Simpson, Wes Morgan, Jonny Evans and Christian Fuchs.

Antoine Semenyo in action for Newport County against Leicester City (Dan Mullan/Getty Images)

He returned to Bristol City before Newport’s cup run was over. It was actually the second of three key loan spells: one in the sixth tier with Bath City, one in the fourth tier with Newport, and one in the third tier with Sunderland.

From there, Semenyo has conquered first the Championship with Bristol City, then the Premier League with Bournemouth. Having regularly impressed in matches against Manchester City, his move to Pep Guardiola’s side in January was a reflection that he was now among the most fearsome attackers in the Premier League. Comfortable on either flank, and equally happy shooting with his left or right foot, Guardiola initially deployed Semenyo in a No 10 role, but now uses him mostly from the right flank.

Semenyo’s FA Cup winner was a moment of magic in an otherwise drab match. Meeting Erling Haaland’s driven cut-back with an instinctive touch with the inside of his right foot, behind his left foot and into the ground, he generated extra momentum by pirouetting upon impact. Had he tried something similar on that miserable trip to Met Police, the ball would probably have got stuck in the mud.

Antoine Semenyo’s backheeled finish proved to be the winner against Chelsea (Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images)

After the game, Chelsea’s interim manager Callum McFarlane analysed the goal well.

“We held the line really well,” he said. “Semenyo goes into an offside position, Bernardo (Silva) is trying to slide Semenyo in, Haaland reads it, and gets onto the ball. We make him play an awkward, right-footed cross under pressure, and he finishes from outside the line of the front post, under pressure. So, for me, it’s a one-in-a-hundred goal, a really low-xG goal, so there’s nothing more we could do in that moment.”

“Usually he crosses to Erling,” said Guardiola. “Today, Erling crossed to him.”

An FA Cup final between City and Chelsea may not have captured the imagination of the neutrals — this was the 10th season in a row the final has featured one of these clubs. But Semenyo was a great match-winner.

Up and down the country, and up and down the football pyramid, footballers will be telling their mates that, once upon a time, they played against the man who scored the winner in the FA Cup final.

Jamie Carragher was in no doubt.

“My worry with Liverpool and Arne Slot,” the former defender said on Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football last week, “is are we going to be in a situation a bit like (Erik) ten Hag where he had a great first season… but the second season was really poor. Then you get into October and you think, ‘We’ve got to change the manager’.”

Carragher acknowledged that Slot’s achievement in winning the Premier League in his first campaign elevated him to a level above Ten Hag at Manchester United, but the point stood.

On Saturday, Mohamed Salah delivered a stinging criticism of Slot’s approach, calling for Liverpool to return to “being the heavy metal attacking team that opponents fear”. “It cannot be negotiable and everyone that joins this club should adapt to it,” said Salah, who will leave the club at the end of this season. “Winning some games here and there is not what Liverpool should be about.”

Salah’s comments followed a limp defeat at Aston Villa that increased criticism of Slot and questions about his future in the job.

We asked Manchester United reporter Carl Anka and Liverpool reporter Andy Jones to debate the parallels between the two Dutch coaches and whether Liverpool should be concerned.

What are the similarities between Slot’s second season and Ten Hag’s?

Anka: Ten Hag’s first season in charge of United delivered silverware, Champions League football and the hope that the club were beginning a new dynastic period. Then 2023-24 happened and misfires in the transfer market, a widespread injury crisis and an overambitious tactical gameplan saw everything unravel.

Perhaps I’m being too harsh, but it is fascinating to watch another Dutch manager have a positive first season built on the goals of a wide player (Marcus Rashford/Mohamed Salah), only to watch said player get deprioritised following the summer signing of a new striker (Rasmus Hojlund/Alexander Isak).

Jones: Both came in and steered the ship in the direction of progress. The following seasons saw a wrong turn and regression to the point where many supporters have given up.

In isolation, Liverpool’s summer business was very good, but there are so many mitigating factors to consider. Injuries, new player adaptation and recruitment focusing on technical players while the rest of the league prepared for a fight. There is also the impact of everyone losing a friend and team-mate in Diogo Jota a few days before pre-season. How does a head coach deal with that?

Arne Slot won the Premier League in fine style in his first season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)

That being said, the brand of football has been miserable. All the traits that made Liverpool so good last season – pressing, controlled threat and a compact defensive structure – have been largely non-existent. Slot has struggled to find solutions tactically, with the exception of making matches into low-event games, but personnel have played a part in that too.

Ten Hag’s side couldn’t possibly have been as bad at defending set pieces though, surely?

Do they play similar styles of football?

Anka: Not when things were working for Liverpool, but the team’s current state bears a few similarities to United’s turgid football from Ten Hag’s second season. United in 2023-24 were weak pressers of the ball in the front three and had huge injury problems in their defence. The result was a team that was stretched thin in both boxes, creating a “doughnut midfield” that was underpowered and easily bypassed with quick counter-attacks.

I don’t believe Slot wants Liverpool to play this way. Much like Ten Hag, he’s been dealt a strange set of cards. But like Ten Hag, he’s also playing them in a strange way.

Liverpool fans, I sincerely ask you this question for the comment section: what does Slot want Liverpool to do when they don’t have the ball?

Jones: You’re right, Carl, and Slot has said as much during the campaign. He wants his team to dominate ball possession, but he also wants them to press opponents out of possession. The problem is, either through profile or performance, they have struggled to do that at the required standards.

Slot’s system relies heavily on wingers, but Mohamed Salah and Cody Gakpo’s ineffectiveness has been a real issue. So, too, has ball progression from their initial build-up phase without Trent Alexander-Arnold, as well as a lack of patterns of play in the final third.

Out of possession, Slot is not a full-on, high-press manager, he likes to set traps. The problem is, when your side lacks intensity, aggression and cohesion, those traps are easy to spot and avoid.

Liverpool have become that soft touch that teams find easy to play against — it was the same feeling I had about Ten Hag’s side.

How about how they present themselves in public to the media?

Anka: Liverpool’s 3-0 win over Manchester United at the start of last season was damaging for Ten Hag, not only for the manner of the defeat, but also for an impressive post-match interview where Slot calmly explained the structural problems at the heart of Ten Hag’s system.

Slot was not only seen as a better tactician but also a better communicator. Ten Hag found it difficult to be funny or charismatic when speaking in English and looked worse in comparison.

Erik ten Hag struggled to communicate effectively at Manchester United (Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)

Slot has lost a lot of that charm across 2025-26, and his repeated references to the Champions League tie against Paris Saint-Germain from March last season have grown weary. He’s been a little too honest about Liverpool’s problems.

Jones: Not a press conference goes by these days without a section of the fanbase finding a fault with one of Slot’s answers.

He is typically Dutch, straight-talking and honest, but sometimes he can be too honest. Repeatedly talking about PSG or low blocks have rubbed people up the wrong way, but when he kept bringing up the 1-0 defeat by Nottingham Forest in his first season, that didn’t bother people as much because Liverpool were winning.

He is a good communicator who tries to properly answer every question, slipping in the occasional attempt at humour. What has changed is he has spent this season speaking after a lot of defeats and even more poor performances. Liverpool fans thrive off connection: they want their manager to show emotion, motivate them and make them believe. It’s less of an issue if the results are good, but it is when things aren’t going well and people are looking for something to get behind.

United gave Ten Hag a contract extension after the 2024 FA Cup final and regretted it. Should Liverpool stick by Slot?

Anka: Sir Jim Ratcliffe once described Ten Hag’s contract extension as “an error”, saying he wanted to give the Dutchman the “benefit of the doubt” after the FA Cup win. The argument for keeping an underperforming manager tends to centre on whether there were enough mitigating circumstances behind a bad season, and whether the club can use their summer to make the correct changes in player recruitment and wider infrastructure to fix things.

United failed to do either in the summer of 2024, and you could feel fans and players slowly lose faith. Liverpool fans are booing Slot’s tactical decisions.

Andy, it feels like he’s lost buy-in. Once that happens, cut the chord.

Erik ten Hag’s FA Cup win kept him in a job at United (Alex Pantling/Getty Images )

Jones: I’m one of the shrinking minority that would give Slot the benefit of the doubt because I think his job has been made very difficult due to injuries on top of an unbalanced squad – yes, they spent a lot, but too much emphasis was placed on quality, not quantity. Problems have snowballed due to underperformance from key players and a squad-wide loss of confidence.

No doubt, there are big questions for him to answer tactically, which new, more-suited personnel should help with, but there is no doubt it would be a gamble to continue with him. More importantly, it feels like he has lost too much of the fanbase. Estimating it at about 80 per cent of supporters who are ready to move on might be being kind.

The idea of a managerial change in October if Liverpool stick with Slot feels ominous, because a couple of poor results will bring back the negativity currently engulfing the club and his position will become untenable.

Ten Hag has struggled since leaving United. Do we think Slot will do the same post-Liverpool?

Anka: Ten Hag’s post-United career saw a disastrous three-game spell in charge of Bayer Leverkusen, where he fell out with nearly every important player and senior executive at the club. Ten Hag’s team will argue he was set up to fail during a difficult transitional period for the club after Xabi Alonso’s successful spell. German media described him as an odd communicator with unusual training habits.

Next season will see Ten Hag skip management altogether, taking up a new role as sporting director of his boyhood club FC Twente. Slot is unlikely to have a Leverkusen-style bust-up but he, too, might return to the Eredivisie one day.

Jones: Slot is clearly a talented head coach. You do not rock up to the Premier League and ‘fluke’ winning it in your first season. The squad he inherited was strong, but his tweaks improved it.

A lot of what comes next depends on the conditions of the job that you take. After a season like Slot has endured, you can imagine he would take his time to consider his next move.

The Eredivisie may make the most sense, and you would expect him to do well again, but compared to the current stylistic profile of the Premier League, there are other top European leagues which his system and philosophies would probably suit better right now.