The United States against Bosnia-Herzegovina is poised to become the most-bet World Cup game in American history, as bettors continue to embrace the global game and demonstrate patriotism by backing the home team.

The Americans are currently consensus -700 heavy favorites to advance in this Round of 32 matchup and around -300 to win the game in regulation with a total of 2.5 goals.

“The handle is off the charts,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told The Athletic. “It looks like this handle will surpass March Madness.”

At BetMGM, the handle of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is the only World Cup game with a higher handle than the Americans’ three group play games in the sportsbook’s history. “We expect USA-Bosnia to be the single most-bet World Cup game ever,” BetMGM head of public relations John Ewing said.

And nearly all the action on the outcome is one-sided, which is rare because sportsbooks often see unemotional, respected wagers that simply prioritize profit. But that really hasn’t been the case. “We’ve got a couple accounts that we think are really sharp that aren’t betting against the U.S.,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of Race and Sports John Murray told The Athletic.

At Caesars, 92 percent of the money on that particular game is backing the Americans. “This aligns with the broader trend across the tournament, where our largest liabilities have consistently been tied to the USA,” Caesars Sportsbook head of soccer Mark Bickerdike emailed.

“I do expect a USA win,” Nigel Seeley, a U.K.-based betting analyst with more than 30 years in the industry who is stateside for these games, told us via text message. “I can’t see the U.S. changing their high-intensity style. Eleven of Bosnia’s last 12 internationals have seen both teams to score, and that is my pick in this one at +110.”

Along those lines, American bettors often prefer simple, star-driven wagers. One fun narrative so far has been the World Cup’s biggest names of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland all delivering goals practically every game. For the U.S., Folarin Balogun and Christian Pulisic each have around +105 odds to score against Bosnia-Herzegovina, and they represent a combined 84 percent of that market’s handle at BetMGM. At Caesars, over 50 percent have backed Pulisic to score.

As is often the case, American bettors have been enamored with lofty payouts. Casual bettors originally backed Team USA to win the World Cup at 60-to-1 odds, and that has flowed steadily with every impressive win. The Americans now have about 30-to-1 odds to win it all.

“It would be the Miracle on Ice sort of thing, pretty much. Maybe bigger than that. If USA wins, we’re really going to have a huge loss,” Avello said on Vegas Stats and Information Network on Monday.

Almost all sportsbooks remain significantly vulnerable, especially if the Americans do the unthinkable and win five more games. But we are seemingly still a few more games away from the house adjusting the odds to offset risk.

“I wouldn’t really worry about it until the semifinals. I don’t think it’s worth worrying about until we get past the Spain game (potentially in the quarterfinals),” Murray said. “We want to see them keep winning. It’s not easy to get crowds and handle in July.”

Entering the day, the Americans currently have the ninth-shortest odds, roughly the same as Norway.

The moment the U.S. men’s national team has built toward is here: The knockout stage of World Cup 2026.

The USMNT hosts Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., for a ticket to the round of 16. The U.S. topped Group D, convincingly beating Paraguay and Australia, while Bosnia finished third in Group B after a win over Qatar on the final day of the group stage.

The U.S. lost its final group game to Turkey, but with the group already wrapped up, Mauricio Pochettino had made wholesale changes to his lineup. The good news is star forward Christian Pulisic made his return from a calf injury off the bench, playing more than 30 minutes. On Tuesday, Pulisic assured the media he’s ready to go from the start, with no limitations.

Bosnia is led by legendary forward Edin Džeko, who, at 40, remains a key part of their attack. Around him are talented wingers Esmir Bajraktarević and Kerim Alajbegović. Bajraktarević was born in the United States and represented U.S. youth national teams and earned one senior cap before switching to represent Bosnia. He scored the game-winning penalty against Italy to send his country to the World Cup during qualifying playoffs in March.

The U.S. was eliminated in the round of 16 at the last World Cup in Qatar. It needs a win on Wednesday night to at least equal that finish — but the team has ambitions for much more. Here’s a closer look at Wednesday night’s match:

What you need to know about the matchup

Round of 32: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Bosnia & Herzegovina (FIFA ranking 64)

Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium (Levi’s Stadium), Santa Clara, Calif.

Date: Wednesday, July 1

Kick-off: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT

U.S. pathway: Winners of World Cup Group D: Two wins vs Paraguay and Australia, one loss to Turkey.

Bosnia pathway: Qualified for the round of 32 as one of the eight best third-placed teams. Group B record: One tie with Canada, one defeat to Switzerland, one win vs. Qatar.

Edin Džeko remains a key in Bosnia’s attack as it prepares to face the United States in the round of 32. (Jane Gershovich / ISI Photos / Getty Images)

Staff predictions

Paul Tenorio: U.S. 2, Bosnia 1 – We have seen that these knockout games are mostly tight affairs. The U.S. will be in control and build a two-goal lead, but have some nervy moments when Bosnia pulls one back. Ultimately, the home crowd will help push them through to the round of 16.

Henry Bushnell: U.S. 3, Bosnia 1 – The U.S. will come out flying, just like against Paraguay in the opener, and steamroll Bosnia. Maybe there won’t be four goals this time, and maybe Bosnia will put up more of a fight, but it feels like another convincing victory.

Tom Bogert: U.S. 2, Bosnia 1 – There is legitimate worry this game has “1-1 draw but Bosnia wins on penalties” written all over it … but the U.S. was rampant against Paraguay and Australia. I’m expecting more of that against Bosnia.

Charlie Davies: This game is perfect for… Antonee Robinson

It’s a great game for wide players. Bosnia looks to play through theirs to generate chances. If the U.S. can pin back those wingers, they’ll have to work so hard that by the 60th minute, they’ll be exhausted when it’s time to transition.

For the U.S., the emphasis will be on continuing to use the high press and width to breach Bosnia’s deep defence. A 4-4-2 is difficult to break down centrally, but once it’s pinned back, it demands constant running from the outside midfielders. The U.S. overloads both flanks with Alex Freeman and Sergiño Dest on one side and Pulisic and Antonee Robinson on the other, making it extremely difficult to defend if Bosnia’s communication isn’t perfect.

I also notice the space between their back line and midfield can become too large. Players are forced wide, leaving big central pockets. When the back line drops, Pulisic and Weston McKennie have plenty of options. Qatar found opportunities in those areas, which should give the U.S. confidence.

Robinson has always had the athleticism. Over the past couple of seasons, his decision-making has caught up. He knows when to make long runs or put pressure on, and which cross he should play. He understands where he can make an impact and expose weaknesses.

He’s on the precipice of being world class. I could see him becoming one of the top left backs in Serie A or La Liga, and this is his opportunity to elevate himself into that category. If he does that, I wouldn’t expect him to remain at Fulham beyond August.

The circumstances could be ripe for Antonee Robinson (5) to have a big game vs. Bosnia (Keith Birmingham / MediaNews Group / Pasadena Star-News / Getty Images)

Odds

The Americans were favored in every match in the group stage and that continues against Bosnia. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, the United States is -750 (2-to-15) to advance, which implies the Americans have nearly a 90 percent chance of moving on to the final 16.

For context, only Argentina, England, Spain and France were bigger favorites in this round. Even in regulation, the Americans are priced between -265 and -280 to win, which implies a greater than 70 percent chance.

As far as we can find the betting numbers on, this is only the second time the U.S. has been favored in a knockout match in a World Cup, the first being 2010 vs. Ghana. That was nearly a toss-up. This is not.

The U.S. doesn’t have a long history of knockout matches (this is the ninth ever) and the Americans have been a significant underdog in most of them. Not this time around.

If U.S. beats Bosnia it will be because…

They replicate—or create a loose facsimile of—the performance from the U.S.’s 4-1 win over Paraguay. Even more than the final scoreline suggests, it was a complete domination, especially in the first half.

The USMNT’s press suffocated Paraguay, while the American back line grew increasingly aggressive as the first half wore on, completely pinning Paraguay in its defensive third. They could not string passes together, either losing possession almost immediately or resorting to hopeful clearances for only brief moments of relief.

Pulisic and Folarin Balogun have developed strong attacking chemistry, while midfielders McKennie and Malik Tillman are intelligent and relentless with their off-ball movement. Those qualities are where the U.S. can win this game, creating wide overloads on the right through Dest and McKennie, then exploiting the left with Pulisic and Robinson.

Set pieces play an outsized role in knockout-round matches. Bosnia is dangerous from dead-ball situations, including on long throws. Limiting those opportunities will be crucial, as will finding an early goal, just as the U.S. did in both of its group-stage victories. The longer Bosnia keeps the match level, the more pressure shifts onto the U.S.

If U.S. draws it will be because…

Bosnia defends in a compact, well-organized shape, then picks its moments to break forward with purpose, particularly through Bajraktarević and Alajbegović. If those transitions don’t materialize, this team are still dangerous from set pieces, especially if Džeko is on the pitch.

Bosnia will not be an easy opponent—no knockout-round match at the World Cup ever is. It held Canada to a draw in their tournament opener in front of a raucous home crowd and won’t be intimidated by whatever home-field advantage Levi’s Stadium can generate.

Bosnia has conceded more than one goal just once in its last 10 matches, a stretch that includes games against Italy, Wales, Canada and Austria. A draw in the knockout stage will send the game to penalties, where Bosnia is more than comfortable after winning consecutive shootouts in the UEFA qualifying playoffs.

If U.S. loses it will be because…

Any given day, right? The U.S. is a heavy favorite, but that’s the beauty of sport: anything can happen.

The path to a Bosnia upset is straightforward. It capitalizes on its transition and set-piece opportunities while delivering a near-flawless defensive performance.

“Bosnia is a very competitive, aggressive and physical team, who also has good organization and a very good coach,” Pochettino said. “You see the games they played in the group stage or in March for qualification, they have quality.”

At this World Cup, goalkeepers from underdog teams have repeatedly earned points for their sides. Nikola Vasilj will have to play a major role if Bosnia is to get a result.

“Bosnia are here because they deserve to be here,” Pochettino said. “For us, it’s full respect.”

The U.S. attack will need to be clinical to break down Bosnia’s defense and ultimately find a breakthrough on Wednesday night.

Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie and Sergiño Dest are all expected to start for the USMNT vs. Bosnia (Sarah Stier / FIFA / Getty Images)

Key injuries

Star man Pulisic has been dealing with a calf issue but is in the frame to start for the first time since the opening game of the tournament, and says he is ready to last the duration of the game—whether that is 90 minutes or even 120 minutes if it goes to extra time.

There are no major injury concerns among the other expected starters, either.

Auston Trusty, who scored in the Turkey game, has an ankle problem but should be included as a substitute. There are doubts around the availability of Mark McKenzie, who has a foot irritation, and Cristian Roldan, who has a muscle strain.

Tyler Adams, Balogun, Chris Richards, and Robinson were all left out of the Turkey game due to a risk of suspension, but now come back into the fold after yellow cards were wiped following the group stage.

Predicted lineups

United States (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Balogun.

Bosnia (4-4-2): Vasilj; Dedić, Katić, Muharemović, Kolašinac; Bajraktarević, Šunjić, Bašić, Alajbegović; Džeko, Demirović

Match referee

Raphael Claus of Brazil will be the match official. He is one of South America’s most experienced referees, having also officiated at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Copa América, and Copa Libertadores. His assistants are fellow Brazilians, Danilo Manis and Rodrigo Figueiredo, while the fourth official is Dario Herrera from Argentina.

Schedule and TV information

USMNT vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina in Santa Clara: July 1, 10 p.m ET on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)

Next U.S. match

Round of 16 vs Belgium or Senegal in Seattle: July 7 on Fox (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)

Essential reading

A handful of must-reads from The Athletic staff.

USMNT’s secret weapon for World Cup penalty shootouts

With the U.S. prepping for penalties, Pochettino’s staff has turned to brainwave technology to gain an edge.

Christian Pulisic is already a star. What comes next at World Cup can make him USMNT’s GOAT

By almost any measure, Pulisic has joined Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan at the top of the USMNT GOAT conversation. Becoming the game’s new standard-bearer now feels inevitable.

After acing World Cup’s group stage, USMNT confronts its kryptonite: Europe

If the U.S are to progress any further in this tournament, they must overcome a terrible recent record against European opponents. They have lost 10 straight games against Euro rivals, so need to buck the trend.

Why it was ‘best’ to be out west: How USMNT’s World Cup has wound up on one coast

The remainder of the USMNT’s World Cup campaign will unfold on the West Coast, exactly as the team had hoped.

I tried out the hyperbaric chamber therapy the USMNT uses for World Cup recovery

The Athletic’s Tom Bogert witnessed first-hand how recovery technology is transforming preparation between World Cup games.

USMNT’s path to the 2026 World Cup final: The knockout road as the bracket becomes clear

A sweeping start to the World Cup has allowed fans to dream. If the U.S. go on an unprecedented run to the final, this is what it will look like.

A Gen-Z slang term has become USMNT’s buzzword as it gleefully riles World Cup opposition

Over the past two years under Argentine coach Mauricio Pochettino, U.S. players have become experts at rage-baiting.

Bosnia-Herzegovina’s strengths and weaknesses

Breaking down the USMNT’s opponent and how it prefers to play.