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World Cup Fantasy: Top 10 premium picks for the knockout stages 

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The knockout rounds are where premium players truly earn their price tags. With fewer fixtures, less room for error and every match carrying huge importance, investing in proven world-class talent becomes more important than ever. 

While differentials can still provide rank gains, premium assets offer the combination of security, explosive potential and captaincy appeal that can define your World Cup Fantasy campaign. 

We did a piece on the best premiums during the group stages, and this will be an update of that, taking into account fixtures, form and differential status.


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10. Bukayo Saka, England

Bukayo Saka ($9.5m) has been easing himself back in from injury but now seems to be approaching full match fitness. The fixture against Norway could be one where he gets some joy, and although he hasn’t produced what we know he can, he no doubt still has a haul in him. 

Also, he is one of the few premium players who is a huge differential and still under five per cent owned, which means he qualifies for the scouting bonus. 

Norway may prove stubborn, but England should still create enough opportunities for Saka to deliver. His combination of goals, assists and bonus-point potential makes him a huge upside option, although, admittedly, a risky one.

Bukayo Saka might prove the ultimate risk-or-reward pick (Buda Mendes/Getty Images)

9. Lamine Yamal, Spain

Similar to Saka, Spain’s young superstar has also had a quiet tournament by his own high standards, and it’s a similar story with him being eased into the team after injury. 

A quarter-final against Belgium means Spain are strong favourites to progress, and despite his lacklustre campaign so far, he is still the best attacker for his country. 

The 18-year-old played his first 90 minutes of the tournament in the 1-0 win over Portugal, so his fitness is not an issue anymore. Surely it’s only a matter of time before he hits form again.

8. Erling Haaland, Norway

Including Erling Haaland ($10.5m) may surprise some managers given Norway’s difficult fixture against England. However, fantasy football is ultimately about backing elite players capable of producing moments of brilliance — and he has shown this tournament that he can score against anyone. 

He already has seven goals from the 11 that Norway have scored while he’s been on the pitch and is probably the biggest talisman we have left in the World Cup. If Norway manage to get anything from this game, there is no doubt Haaland will be the catalyst. 

While his fixture lowers his immediate appeal, that is countered by being arguably the best finisher in world football. 

7. Mikel Oyarzabal, Spain

Mikel Oyarzabal ($8.1m) remains one of the safest routes into Spain’s attack, and he is also the focal point, playing as the No 9. He has four goals and an assist and will be one of the favourites to score in the quarter-finals given the fixture and the quality of Spain’s team. 

His slightly lower ownership compared to other premiums could also make him an attractive differential. Oyarzabal is only 12.5 per cent owned at the time of writing.

Although he doesn’t qualify for the scouting bonus, he is still very much a differential. So for those chasing, he is a fine option.

6. Ousmane Dembele, France

Ousmane Dembele ($10.0m) is also nailed to start, and although he doesn’t provide the minutes security of Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappe, he has a higher goal threat than the former. 

He has already proven his worth with a hat-trick against Norway during the group stages and has two assists to his name. 

Mbappe, Olise and Dembele are undoubtedly the best attacking trio of this tournament, and all three have huge upside. Owning at least two of them seems wise, especially since they are favourites to win the World Cup.

Managers chasing rank may even prefer to captain Dembele over Mbappe.

5. Michael Olise, France

Michael Olise ($9.5m) has been one of France’s standout performers throughout the tournament. His creativity has been exceptional, and he genuine goal threat too.

He leads in assists (five), and he has been quite unfortunate not to have registered a few goals. Olise’s involvement in almost every dangerous attack keeps him firmly among the premium conversation, and along with Mbappe, he is one of France’s most nailed attackers. 

If France score, there is a high chance he will be involved one way or another.

4. Jude Bellingham, England

Bellingham continues to prove why he is one of the most complete midfielders in world football. 

He has lived up to the billing time and again on the big stage, and his most recent brace against Mexico was the latest example. He now has four goals and one assist in this World Cup.

He regularly arrives late into the penalty area, creates chances for team-mates and is one of the players who is very likely to play every single minute even if the game goes into extra time. 

Facing Norway only strengthens his appeal. Managers looking for a premium midfielder with both consistency and explosive potential should have Bellingham near the top of their shortlist.

Jude Bellingham was immense for England at the Azteca (Charlotte Wilson/Getty Images)

3. Lionel Messi, Argentina 

Few players are more reliable in tournament football than Lionel Messi. 

Argentina’s quarter-final meeting with Switzerland is far from straightforward, but the overall route through the draw remains favourable compared to several other tournament heavyweights. 

Messi, even at the age of 39, continues to dominate Argentina’s attacking play, taking set pieces, penalties and creating chances too. He is also in contention for the Golden Boot, and Argentina’s side of the draw means they have a great chance of going further in the tournament.

While he may be in the twilight of his career, Messi’s Fantasy ceiling remains among the highest in the game.

2. Harry Kane, England

England have one of the most appealing quarter-final fixtures against Norway, and they have shown they are an attacking force. 

Harry Kane ($10.5m) has been sublime this tournament with six goals and will have the Golden Boot in mind.

The England captain has been in outstanding form, consistently producing attacking returns while remaining the focal point of almost every attack. Whether it’s penalties, link-up play or finishing inside the box, Kane offers multiple routes to points every single match. 

England are one of the favourites now and have a fairly favourable bracket to make it to the final.

1. Kylian Mbappé, France

No games are easy at this stage of the tournament, but France will still be heavy favourites against a tricky Morocco side. Kylian Mbappe (£10.5m) has the ability to produce attacking returns against any opposition and remains France’s biggest goal threat by some distance. 

He is the joint-leading scorer at the moment with seven goals and the favourite to get the Golden Boot, according to the markets.

France have looked the best team at the World Cup, and unsurprisingly they are also the favourites to win the tournament. 

Mbappe is nailed to start, will play the whole game and is also on penalties. He is a no-brainer pick.

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Jarrod Evans: Wales fly-half moves back to Cardiff from Harlequins

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Wales fly-half Jarrod Evans has returned to Cardiff after three seasons with Harlequins.

The 29-year-old will play for the United Rugby Championship (URC) quarter-finalists and look to add to his 17 caps.

Evans made 126 appearances for the Blue and Blacks in his first stint, scoring 765 points and winning the Challenge Cup in 2018.

The playmaker moved to Harlequins in 2023 and made 48 appearances when battling for the 10 jersey with England and British and Irish Lions fly-half Marcus Smith.

“I feel like I have matured as a player and person, it’s good to get different experiences,” said Evans.

“I’ve had three seasons with Harlequins where I was out of my comfort zone, experiencing a different environment and style, so hopefully there are things I can bring back to Cardiff.”

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Michael Olise yellow card vs. Paraguay upheld by FIFA after France appeal, says Didier Deschamps

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Olise gesturing towards Matias Galarza

Olise was booked following an altercation with Paraguay’s Matias Galarza. Patrick Smith – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images

Michael Olise’s yellow card in France’s World Cup round-of-16 victory over Paraguay has been upheld by FIFA, head coach Didier Deschamps said on Wednesday.

Olise was booked following an altercation with Matias Galarza. The Paraguayan went to ground holding his face, but replays showed the Bayern Munich forward was only holding his shirt.

The French Football Federation (FFF) subsequently appealed to FIFA, the competition’s governing body, to rescind the yellow card.

That appeal came after FIFA suspended a one-match ban for U.S. striker Folarin Balogun following an intervention involving U.S. President Donald Trump.

The FFF insisted its appeal was not a direct response to the Balogun case and that Olise’s yellow card was an injustice in its own right.

“The yellow card (for Olise) hasn’t changed,” Deschamps confirmed at his press conference on Wednesday.

“There was a decision from FIFA, we received it this morning. It has been upheld.”

The yellow card standing means that should Olise — the 24-year-old playmaker who has been one of the tournament’s star players — be booked again in Thursday’s quarter-final tie with Morocco, he would be suspended for a potential World Cup semi-final.

Should France progress through the last-eight tie in Boston, they would face the winners of Spain’s quarter-final against Belgium for a spot in the July 19 final.

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‘Two things can be true at once’: The mantra of the U.S. and the World Cup

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Welcome back to MoneyCall, The Athletic’s weekly sports business cheat sheet. (Was this email forwarded to you? Subscribe here.)

Name-dropped today: David Beckham, Erling Haaland, Craig Kessler, Carli Lloyd, Rich Paul, Dean Blandino, Gianni Infantino, Bill Simmons, Abby Wambach, Monkey D. Luffy and more. Let’s go:

Driving the Conversation

The USMNT’s many realities

As we reflect on the American squad’s impact on fan attention and spending surrounding this World Cup, it’s time to return to a favorite MoneyCall construct: “Two things can be true at once.”

The USMNT’s loss to Belgium was disappointing on many levels. Also true: The team’s weeks of success were a thrill ride that genuinely captivated a huge swath of the country.

The red card on Folarin Balogun was absurd. Also true: The subsequent political contretemps devolved the larger dynamic into something no one really enjoyed.

Upcoming games in this tournament are unlikely to top Monday’s 30 million U.S. TV viewers. Also true: The presence of France (Kylian Mbappe!), Argentina (Lionel Messi!) and Norway’s booming star (more on him below) will keep Americans watching.

This month’s level of widespread excitement around soccer in the U.S. is not sustainable. Also true: MLS must do everything possible to uptick fan conversion.

(Related: MLS suffers from being a second-tier league globally. Also true: NWSL is the best women’s soccer league in the world, with a huge marketing opportunity of its own.)

This month will boost the number of kids who want to sign up for youth soccer. Also true: The billion-dollar youth-soccer industry is fundamentally broken.

All those cheery TV ads featuring Christian Pulisic now feel awkward. Also true: If marketers remove those, there will still be so many David Beckham ads. (More on that below!)
To summarize, the USMNT World Cup ride was going to end sooner/later (take the MoneyPoll below!). Also true: National interest and engagement unquestionably leveled up.

The exact return depends on how the federation and its partners capitalize over the next four years — and, more urgently, for the Women’s World Cup in Brazil next year.


Get Caught Up

Big talkers from the sports business industry:

MLB’s Home Run Derby on Netflix: Among Netflix’s three events within its new MLB TV deal — along with Opening Night back in March and the Field of Dreams game next month — the venerable Home Run Derby is the jewel. Monday, for the first time in more than 30 years, the event won’t air on ESPN.

As with Opening Night, MLB fans without Netflix will have to subscribe for the month for access (cue griping), and football yakker Michael Irvin is somewhat awkwardly involved (he has an interview podcast that airs on Netflix). Here’s hoping the format (20 swings, rather than the all-you-can-swing “pitch clock”) keeps things interesting.

Wimbledon: The fashion competition is almost as fierce as the matches, with players and their brands trying to make the most of Wimbledon’s strict, all-white attire rules. Caoimhe O’Neill dove into the creativity that comes with restrictions.

Related: How New Balance activated inside the World Cup, despite not being an official team kit provider.

IOC lifts ban on Russian Olympic Committee: “What should the Olympics be about? can lead directly to another question that becomes even more pertinent with Tuesday’s announcement: What should the IOC adjudicate? Sport? Yes. Fair play? Yes. Doping regulations and uniformity? Yes. Those issues are plenty to deal with and hard enough to get right. Geopolitics? Probably not.” — Barry Svrluga

Craig Kessler leading the LPGA, one year later: “Kessler has reinvigorated players, secured landmark sponsorship deals and already has pieces in place to revamp the LPGA’s schedule. But the reality is that the rookie commissioner’s progress must also be measured against the organization he inherited.” — Gabby Herzig

Where will LeBron end up? Still TBD, but his agent Rich Paul immediately earned my respect for going straight to the whiteboard to break down the leading contenders on his own podcast with Max Kellerman. More whiteboards on podcasts! 🤔

Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce wedding: Such a big deal last week … and kind of forgotten about by today? As for the most random sports-related attendee of the nuptials, how about Fox NFL rules analyst Dean Blandino? (More power to him for making the cut!)

Other current obsessions: Erling Haaland, living his best life… why DO some soccer players pull up their shorts? … one last farewell to Mexico as an all-time great World Cup host … when will MLB players invest in teams like stars in other sports? … Deion Sanders vs. EA Sports … Gotham FC’s move to Queens


What I’m Wondering

The ubiquity of Haaland and Beckham

With apologies to Messi and Mbappe, the two biggest stars of the 2026 World Cup have been Norway striker Erling Haaland and the ubiquitous pitchman, Beckham.

How have they gotten so huge? We have deep dives today into the marketing growth of both — Haaland more recently, Beckham more institutionally — and each is worth your time:

🇳🇴 Haaland (via The Athletic’s Sam Lee): “Over the past few days, his camp has been told that social-media algorithms are being geared towards Haaland content, because that is where the demand is among users. They have been told his boom in popularity has been likened to when Kelce began dating Swift and then his Kansas City Chiefs team won that season’s Super Bowl.”

📺 Beckham (via James Horncastle): “At times, it feels like he is the everywhere everyman. Beckham at the USMNT game. Beckham at the England game. Beckham in Miami for Messi and Argentina’s game. Beckham in the TV ads when the game goes to commercial breaks. Beckham, the English face of a (North) American World Cup. Beckham, the World Cup statesman.”


Grab Bag

Data Point: 87 percent
Across The Pulse and our World Cup Daily Briefing newsletters, we surveyed fans on how they felt about Folarin Balogun’s suspended suspension. Only around 13 percent of the thousands of readers who weighed in thought it was the “right call.” The rest? Some combination of both “right call, bad look” and straight-up “bad look.”

Two columns published yesterday about this are worth your time:

• Jerry Brewer: “In America, we spent a few weeks as a soccer nation and a few days as a team everyone else on earth hoped would lose. The beginning was worth it. The ending was unbearable.”

• Adam Crafton: “On (Gianni) Infantino’s planet, the World Cup unites the globe. There have been moments during the past month, as diasporas danced and tourists rejoiced, where this promise appeared close to reality. And then there are the moments when it feels like this sport can tear the world apart.”

Name to Know: Carli Lloyd
“Chasing. Tentative. Scared. Just not confident on the ball.” On a night when U.S. soccer fans — avid and casual — were looking for answers to the 4-1 loss to Belgium, the most accomplished American player of any involved with Fox’s World Cup coverage came through with much-needed candor.

One more: “Monster Energy Big 12 Football.” Between regular-season jersey patches and on-field logos, that’s a surprising level of branding value for what Sports Business Journal reports is around merely $1 million per school in payout.

Collectible Craze: “One Piece”
Last year’s Dodgers giveaway night involving the extraordinarily popular Japanese manga “One Piece” (and its irrepressible main character, Monkey D. Luffy) was big. Last week’s follow-up was massive, with fans in an endless lineup to try to get a special trading card that immediately was worth hundreds on eBay.

Related: Fascinating explainer of why card collectors aren’t chasing “rookie cards” like they/we used to.

One more: The longtime partnership between Michael Jordan and Upper Deck will continue. Here’s what it means.

Trend Watch: Colon cancer screenings
First, my colleague Jacob Robinson led his NFL newsletter last week with a notice. Then there was Bill Simmons missing the Jaylen Brown trade last week because he was under during a colonoscopy. Then, over the past week, there was the World Cup ad in heavy rotation for Cologuard featuring Julie Foudy and Abby Wambach. As someone over 50, I’m here for raising awareness. (And, yes, I’ve gotten one.)

MoneyPoll
You could argue the USMNT basically netted out where we thought they would a month ago: certainly good enough for the final 16, but not nearly elite enough to be quarterfinalists. Kind of … the usual? In the end, U.S. soccer at the World Cup was (a) a real success; (b) a disappointment; (c) kinda what we expected?

(Responding to the poll is limited to email subscribers – it takes two seconds to get on the list, and it conveniently comes to your email inbox on Wednesday morning. Get access here!)

Beat Dan in Connections: Sports Edition
Puzzle No.
Dan’s time: 00:51
Try the game here!


Worth Your Time

Great business-adjacent reads for your downtime or commute:

Cancelled bans, rigged draws and CIA plots: How the World Cup breeds conspiracy theories. (Timely!)

Two more:

The influencer’s World Cup: Pitchside access and the battle for views in an often lonely world.

I’ve been so curious about this: How does a major sports league navigate changing title sponsors? Case study: NASCAR x O’Reilly Auto Parts.


Back next Wednesday! And, as always, give a try to all The Athletic’s other newsletters. (Again: All always free.)

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