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FIFA, global advisory body clash over potential betting irregularities at World Cup

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An international advisory body has raised seven notices relating to possible match manipulation from potential betting irregularities identified in the 2026 men’s World Cup.

The findings from the Group of Copenhagen — an independent international network dedicated to detecting, sanctioning, and preventing the manipulation of sports competitions — follow its integrity monitoring operation across the tournament’s 104 matches.

The full report has not yet been published but a summary of its conclusions has been released by the Council of Europe. According to sources briefed on the report, among the in-game notices to raise potential irregularities were:

  • The red card shown to South Africa’s Themba Zwane in the 84th minute of his side’s tournament-opening game against Mexico
  • American cryptocurrency-based prediction market Polymarket receiving $4.8 million (£3.6m) on markets for Spain not to defeat Cape Verde in their group-stage game, which ended in a goalless draw
  • The three-and-a-half-minute delay from the video assistant referee (VAR) team to disallow a goal from Spain’s Ferran Torres in its 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia

The findings, sources say, also detailed how Polymarket opened a market on July 2 asking, “Will Folarin Balogun play against Belgium?” That was opened on the same day the U.S. forward was shown a red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the last-32 stage.

FIFA’s Disciplinary Committee only confirmed that Balogun would be available to play, having had his ban suspended, on July 5. Sources say the Group of Copenhagen’s report said no other such markets were opened for the other 14 players who were shown a red card during the tournament — none of whom had bans suspended.

The Group of Copenhagen — which operates under the Council of Europe’s Macolin Convention, a multilateral treaty which seeks to address fixing by changing international law — has said it has sent an official request for a written explanation to FIFA regarding the Balogun case. The Athletic has approached FIFA and Polymarket for comment on the Group of Copenhagen’s findings.

Christian Kalb, a gambling industry expert who has worked with several governments on betting regulatory issues, has worked with the Group of Copenhagen before, though was not part of this report, told The Athletic that irregularities flagged may be because of other factors aside from manipulation.

Why The World Cup Set A Worrying Precedent

Kate Mason

The Group of Copenhagen’s operation was conducted in coordination with FIFA’s Integrity Task Force — of which it and the Council of Europe, which are independent, are members.

On Tuesday, FIFA’s Integrity Task Force published findings reporting that “no suspicious betting activity or indications of match manipulation in connection with any fixture” had been identified across the entirety of the competition.

On Wednesday, however, the Group of Copenhagen detailed that seven “yellow notices” were raised within its own monitoring of the World Cup.

Per the group’s definition, these notices are flagged due to “several different indications of irregularities” which can include “unexplained fluctuations in odds, rumours on social media or source information.”

The group categorises events based on four colour-coded categories: green (normal), yellow (slightly increased alert), orange (increased alert) and red (highest alert).

“The Group of Copenhagen’s notices can be explained by atypical behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging liquidities, there are many explanations that are not manipulations,” Kalb told The Athletic.

“The major problem is when there may be a conflict of interest and potential inside information on those issues. When we speak of prediction markets, we can detect some unusual behaviours but we must be very careful as they can be used for hedging markets.

“If you are a traditional bookmaker, there will be matches when everyone bets on a very strong favourite to win. So maybe, from a bookmaker’s perspective, there are too many people betting on this outcome. If they are a small company, this may be a risk: so they could use a prediction market like Polymarket to hedge that risk.

“By doing that, they can use the outcomes of the strong favourites not winning as a de facto insurance policy. It is selling those outcomes against the possibility of a favourite winning to minimise potentially big losses.”

FIFA’s Integrity Task Force was established in 2019 for that year’s women’s World Cup and has been in place for each World Cup since, with the Group of Copenhagen co-ordinating with them in each tournament.

The Group of Copenhagen estimates that $240bn was placed in bets across the World Cup, approximately twice the amount from the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

It says it placed 15 World Cup matches under increased surveillance, particularly during the final round of group-stage matches and “12 major controversies analysed in light of integrity risks.”

“The volume of betting in a World Cup is so huge, it is very difficult to make any extrapolations from that,” said Kalb. “Each match represents billions of pounds.”

For the first time, the Group of Copenhagen provided continuous monitoring of prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi (an official partner of FIFA), which operate in a fragmented and rapidly evolving regulatory environment, with rules varying by jurisdiction.

The performance of prediction markets during the World Cup “surpassed every estimate that any of us have projected,” Chad Beynon, a gaming and lodging analyst at the financial services firm Macquarie Group, told the New York Times earlier this week.

The Group of Copenhagen said in its report: “These prediction markets raise unprecedented issues: they allow betting on a very wide range of events, often anonymously and using payment methods that are difficult to trace. Monitoring them is a first for an international competition.”

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How to watch the men’s Zug Open: Streaming options for the Semifinal

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The men’s slate at the Zug Open today includes two matches, among them Max Hans Rehberg (ranked No. 409) against Marc-Andrea Huesler (No. 297).

Zug Open key details

  • Tournament: The Zug Open
  • Round: Semifinals
  • Date: July 25
  • Streaming: Fubo (Stream now)
  • Venue: Tennisclub Zug
  • Location: Zug, Switzerland
  • Court Surface: Clay
  • Watching in person? Get tickets on StubHub.

Zug Open schedule today

  • Thiago Seyboth Wild vs. Dylan Dietrich, 9 a.m. ET (Semifinal)
  • Max Hans Rehberg vs. Marc-Andrea Huesler, 11 a.m. ET (Semifinal)

This watch guide was created using technology provided by Data Skrive.

Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

Photo: Clive Brunskill, Carl De Souza, Filipe Amorim, Valery Hache / Getty Images

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There are glaring gaps in this Liverpool squad — and the clock is ticking

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Andoni Iraola was engaging company when he sat down with the travelling media in Liverpool’s team hotel in Chicago this week.

The Basque coach explained how he feels a duty to prove that he belongs at Anfield after being appointed as Arne Slot’s successor this summer, vowing to rebuild the connection with the club’s supporters which was badly damaged during last season’s struggles. He said he wants to give them a team who “fight until the last line for every situation”.

Some managers relish being the centre of attention but Iraola clearly isn’t one of them. He talked instead about being an “assistant to the players”, with his role to maximise their potential and “create the environment for them to perform better”.

The feedback on his training sessions so far from those involved has been glowing. They’re intense and demanding, but the messaging is clear and foundations are being laid for the campaign ahead.

In the absence of so many senior stars, Dominik Szoboszlai and Milos Kerkez have stepped up, helping to set the standards for the youngsters who have been included on the pre-season tour of the United States.

Yet with the Premier League opener against Newcastle United now just four weeks away, Iraola doesn’t yet have all the tools required to ensure his reign gets off to a flyer.

French defender Jeremy Jacquet, whose £60million summer move from Rennes was agreed in January, and Spanish winger Victor Munoz, who signed from Osasuna for £34million in mid-June, remain the only new arrivals following the departures of Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson and Ibrahima Konate as free agents.

Just look at the personnel available for this weekend’s opening U.S. tour match against Sunderland in Nashville. With Wataru Endo, Conor Bradley, Hugo Ekitike and Giovanni Leoni all still doing rehab, the only bone fide first-team outfield players on duty will be Jacquet, Joe Gomez, Kerkez, Szoboszlai, Federico Chiesa, Curtis Jones, Harvey Elliott, Kostas Tsimikas, Jeremie Frimpong and Rio Ngumoha. Of them, there remains ongoing uncertainty over the futures of Chiesa, Jones and Elliott.

Footballers train backed by skyscrapers

Liverpool train at Endeavor Health Performance Center in Chicago on July 22 (Nikki Dyer/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)

Yes, there will be an injection of quality before Wednesday’s second game against Wrexham in New Jersey with Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz and Ryan Gravenberch set to link up with the squad after enjoying a three-and-a-half week break after the World Cup.

But captain Virgil van Dijk, Cody Gakpo and Alisson won’t be reunited with their team-mates until they regroup on Merseyside after the tour, which concludes with a match against Leeds United in Chicago on August 2.

Alexis Mac Allister and Munoz will return even later than that having reached the World Cup final, with Iraola admitting that will have implication in terms of them being ready for the curtain-raiser at St James’ Park.

It’s a delicate balancing act for the head coach in terms of wanting as much time as possible with his players to get his ideas across, but also having to look at the bigger picture and appreciating the importance of rest. It certainly makes sense giving Van Dijk more time off given the demands placed on the 35-year-old centre-back for both club and country over the past 12 months.

The decision regarding Gakpo was on compassionate grounds given the personal heartache he endured during the World Cup, while there would have been little point flying Alisson out to feature in one game, especially given his history of hamstring troubles.

As for the lack of transfers, a sense of perspective is important. The World Cup was always likely to mean that Liverpool did most of their business later in the summer. You also have to factor in how Iraola wanted time to fully assess the talent he already has at his disposal, with his reputation for developing players key to Liverpool pursuing him.

But the growing feeling of post-World Cup angst among the fanbase over the continued lack of incomings is understandable, especially given that squad depth was a concern under Slot last season when injuries started to bite.

“There are obvious situations where we know we need to sign players. Winger, for example. We definitely need to sign a winger,” Iraola told reporters at a press conference in Chicago on Tuesday.

Replacing Salah remains the most urgent priority. Since their pursuit of RB Leipzig’s Yan Diomande floundered — with Real Madrid entering talks to sign the 19-year-old — France international Bradley Barcola has been Liverpool’s top target.

However, agreeing a deal is far from straightforward with European champions Paris Saint-Germain, who are under no pressure to sell, valuing him in excess of £100million. Liverpool have also inquired about the availability of Monaco’s Maghnes Akliouche, who would be a cheaper alternative.

A player dribbles a football

Liverpool are interested in Maghnes Akliouche (Clement Mahoudeau/AFP via Getty Images)

Barcola would certainly be a statement signing given his glittering CV, but if it drags on too long, you run the risk of other suitable options being snapped up.

“We have some tricky positions where we have injured players that we trust who are not in the ideal situation,” Iraola said.

The most obvious is at right-back with Conor Bradley expected to be out for a few more months due to the serious knee injury he sustained against Arsenal in January.

It would be a sizeable gamble if Liverpool didn’t strengthen in that area given they would be so reliant on Frimpong until Bradley is back. Calvin Ramsay is another option but he is likely to leave on loan after the tour.

At centre-back, you’ve got Van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Jacquet and Leoni, who is on the comeback trail after recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Their talismanic captain is in the twilight of his career and Gomez’s fitness record is a concern, while Jacquet and Leoni are both highly-regarded but so young and unproven in English football. Ideally, Liverpool need to recruit a versatile defender with a decent level of experience, who could fill in both at right-back and centre-back.

At the top end of the pitch, there’s the Ekitike void to contend with until around Christmas. That will place a big responsibility on the shoulders of Isak to stay fit and belatedly start repaying that £125million fee.

Liverpool were never going to spend a lot of money on another No 9 as cover when they’ve got Ekitike to return from a ruptured Achilles tendon. But if Chiesa does leave, there’s an argument that they need another attacking option, even if they do win the race for Barcola. As things stand, their forward department consists of Ngumoha, Gakpo, Munoz, Isak and Chiesa, with Etitike sidelined.

And then there’s the midfield which was far too regularly out-fought and out-thought last season. Adding more of a combative edge feels like a necessity, even if Jones and Elliott stick around.

Iraola has made a really positive start, but there are glaring gaps in the squad he inherited that have yet to be filled. The clock is ticking.

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On the move – football’s youngest journeymen

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After beginning his professional career with Dinamo Zagreb at the age of 16, highly rated Croatian midfielder Alen Halilovic earned a permanent move to Barcelona, where he spent two years before joining Hamburg for a further two seasons.

During his time at the Nou Camp, he played primarily for Barcelona B before spending the 2015–16 season on loan at Sporting Gijon.

After joining Hamburg in 2016, he was loaned out to La Liga side Las Palmas during the 2017–18 campaign.

In 2018, shortly after his 22nd birthday, he signed for AC Milan, the sixth club of his career – while Italy became the fourth different country in which he had played.

The midfielder later had spells with Birmingham City and Reading. He now plays for Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands.

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