I’ll buy you a Detmers, Reid my friend if it makes you feel less right,
I’ll get you Joe Ryan my friend if it makes you feel more right,
‘Cause I don’t care too much for Moniak
Moniak can’t buy me love

A 6 p.m. trade deadline on Monday really is going to be a hard day’s night.

Even less than a week away, the trade deadline can look like an absolute muddle. Never more so than this year, when just about every American League team is clumped around .500 and the National League has a sharp line between its fifth best team and everyone else.

So this year’s trade deadline contains an inordinate number of bubble teams — teams that can decide to buy, to sell, to do anything and everything in between.

To get a better sense of what all these teams on the dreaded bubble might decide over the next week, I’ve compared them by record, run differential, proximity to the playoffs and playoff odds a week ahead of the deadline to every team dating back to the 2014 season. It’s a sample of 360 teams, though the 30 from 2020 count a bit less if we’re being honest.

What did those other teams end up doing at the deadline, and what can we learn about this year’s deadline from that history?

I grouped deadline activity into eight different tiers.

Trade deadline tiers of action

• All-in buyer — a team willing to deal significant prospects for win-now major leaguers, with or without extended control. The 2025 Padres, in trading Leo De Vries for Mason Miller, were an all-in buyer.
• Buyer — most teams that add. They don’t mortgage the entire future, but there is some pain in what they give up to get better now.
• Fringe buyer — a team that adds but only minor pieces that come at almost no prospect cost. The 2025 Red Sox, who added reliever Steven Matz and starter Dustin May, were fringe buyers.
• Tailor — a team that threads the needle, dealing something of value off its current roster for other major leaguers, usually with longer team control or that fit the roster better. The first big trade of this summer, the Curtis Mead-Connelly Early swap between the Nationals and Red Sox, is the kind of deal that tailors make.
• Stand pat — a team that does nothing. There is a variation on this when a team (it used to be the Rockies, but now it’s the Angels) goes all-in on standing pat by turning down obvious opportunities to sell and/or by extending its players.
• Light seller — a team that subtracts from its roster with minimal prospect gain. The 2025 Marlins, in sending out Jesús Sánchez and Nick Fortes, were a light seller.
• Seller — most teams that subtract. They give up major-leaguers of value to get prospects who may help down the line.
• Rebuilding seller — a team willing to deal big-time, controllable major-league talent because its timeline to win is beyond the next few years. The 2025 Twins, in trading almost 40 percent of their active roster, were a rebuilding seller.

The records, run differentials and playoff odds (via FanGraphs) are updated through Monday. The prognoses here are not recommendations; I would always buy. These are what other teams in similar spots have tended to do.

Obvious sellers

Obvious buyers

The Bubble Teams

Chicago White Sox

Record: 55-50
Run differential: +42
Standing: 1st in AL Central
Playoff odds: 40.1%

History says: BUY

No team in first place at this point in the season has sold. No team in the top three in its league at this point in the season has sold. Some teams have stood pat or tried to thread the needle, with Milwaukee’s 2022 trade of Josh Hader standing out as an example of the latter strategy failing. The White Sox should be pretty standard buyers.

Boston Red Sox

Record: 55-50
Run differential: +48
Standing: 3rd in AL East, seven games back, hold second wild card
Playoff odds: 73.9%

History says: BUY

It’s been quite the turnaround over the last month for the Red Sox, who looked poised to be sellers before their 15-game winning streak. Now Boston sits tied for third in the American League and has playoff odds above 70 percent. Teams in that position buy.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 55-52
Run differential: +41
Standing: 3rd in NL Central, 11 1/2 games back, tied for final wild card
Playoff odds: 48.3%

History says: ALL-IN BUY

Two types of teams operate as all-in buyers: those that know they’re going to be in the postseason and feel an urgency to get that final piece to a championship puzzle (the 2016 Cubs) and those that need a boost to reach the postseason and perhaps make noise there (the 2015 Blue Jays). The Pirates fall in that latter group. They stand out here from the likes of the Rangers and Guardians — other potential all-in buyers — because of their strong run differential. The 2022 Phillies, for instance, were in a similar position — seventh in the league with a plus-43 differential — when they acquired Noah Syndergaard, David Robertson, Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 55-52
Run differential: -4
Standing: 2nd in NL West, 12 1/2 games back, tied for final wild card
Playoff odds: 31.3%

History says: BUY

From 2014 through 2015, only 10 teams reached this deep into the season in playoff position despite a negative run differential. Four more have done it this season alone (Philadelphia, Arizona, Texas and Cleveland). The Diamondbacks are barely underwater on the differential, and teams with their playoff odds usually buy even if the run differential is negative.

Texas Rangers

Record: 54-52
Run differential: -21
Standing: 1st in AL West
Playoff odds: 63.8%

History says: BUY

The Rangers’ -21 run differential is the worst for a first-place team in the sample. (The 2023 Brewers are the only other first-place team to have a negative run differential a week before the deadline.) If not for that run differential, Texas might be an intriguing team to be an all-in buyer, as their 2016 team (with 64.8 percent playoff odds) was. Instead, history here says to be a standard buyer.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 54-53
Run differential: -18
Standing: 2nd in AL Central, two games back, hold final wild card
Playoff odds: 48.4%

History says: BUY

Show Guardians fans a negative run differential and a record right around .500 — and they’ll show you a future champion of the AL Central, almost regardless of what they do this week. Last year’s Cleveland squad had an inferior record, an inferior differential, an inferior standing and inferior odds. It sold — and came back to win the division anyway. This year’s team is in good enough shape — and the AL open enough — to take a more straightforward approach.

Washington Nationals

Record: 54-53
Run differential: +29
Standing: 3rd in NL East, 8 1/2 games back, one back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 8.2%

History says: THREAD THE NEEDLE

The Nationals sit in a weird, almost unprecedented spot. Usually, if you’re within one game of the postseason, your playoff odds are higher than 10 percent. (Indeed, dating back to 2014, every team within two games of the postseason a week ahead of the deadline has had odds better than Washington’s current mark.) The Nats already made one move as a tailor with the Mead-Early swap, and that can be the blueprint. Maybe they move an expiring contract like Foster Griffin for another pitcher with more team control.

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 53-53
Run differential: -5
Standing: 4th in NL Central, 13 games back, 1 1/2 back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 14.8%

History says: LIGHT SELL

The proximity to the playoffs suggests buying, but the playoff odds call for a light sale, especially given St. Louis’ personnel. Dealing pieces like Dustin May, JoJo Romero and perhaps Lars Nootbaar can help set the Cardinals up better for the long haul.

San Diego Padres

Record: 53-53
Run differential: -21
Standing: 3rd in NL West, 14 games back, 1 1/2 back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 15.6%

History says: REBUILD SELL

As with St. Louis, let’s strip away how close to the postseason picture San Diego is. Focus on the record at .500, the negative run differential, the standing in the National League and the playoff odds of roughly 15 percent. Add in an aging roster and a farm system depleted by some major trades (and all-in buying) in recent years. That’s a pretty good recipe to be a rebuilding seller. The Padres actually look a lot like last year’s Twins, who sold off basically their whole bullpen and got out from underneath most of Carlos Correa’s contract. That could be a good blueprint for the Padres.

Minnesota Twins

Record: 53-54
Run differential: -27
Standing: 3rd in AL Central, three games back, one back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 33.0%

History says: FRINGE BUY

This year’s Twins are another AL team right there despite a negative run differential. Other teams with similar playoff odds have tended to buy but minimally. (The 2016 Marlins and 2023 Yankees come to mind. They added Andrew Cashner and Keynan Middleton, respectively, on the off chance you didn’t remember that immediately.) The classic fringe buy move is to add a reliever or two, and that’s exactly what could help this Twins roster the most. (Just try to make it better than Trevor Richards was in 2024.)

Miami Marlins

Record: 53-54
Run differential: +3
Standing: 4th in NL East, 9 1/2 games back, two back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 9.7%

History says: THREAD THE NEEDLE

Miami’s playoff odds have plummeted thanks to their recent 12-game losing streak, from a high of 51.5 percent on July 8 to now just below 10 percent. The thing is, the Marlins have a fair amount going for them. They’re still just two games back of the final wild card, and they’ve got a positive run differential (and a great third-order winning percentage). Teams this close to the postseason with a positive differential typically act as buyers or tailors. The 2014 Royals, with a +2 differential sitting two back of the postseason, were tailors en route to the pennant that season.

Houston Astros

Record: 53-55
Run differential: -45
Standing: 2nd in AL West, two games back, 1 1/2 back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 30.8%

History says: FRINGE BUY

No team in the sample has been a full-fledged buyer with a run differential this bad. (The 2021 Cardinals, who you’ll hear about again, were at minus-37 when they bought.) But teams with a run differential this bad aren’t usually this close to the postseason. The closest comp might be the 2018 Rockies, who were a fringe buyer despite a negative run differential and playoff odds just north of 20 percent. They made the postseason that year.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 52-55
Run differential: +8
Standing: 3rd in AL West, 2 1/2 games back, two games out of final wild card
Playoff odds: 53.9%

History says: BUY

The record says to sell. But Seattle has the best playoff odds of a sub-.500 team in the sample and by a pretty significant margin. And the only team with better playoff odds than this that actually did sell at the deadline was the 2016 Astros. If the Mariners have identified the next Yordan Alvarez and can trade a reliever for him, go for it. If not, they should still buy.

Baltimore Orioles

Record: 52-55
Run differential: -11
Standing: 4th in AL East, 11 games back, two back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 24.0%

History says: SELL

The problem for the Orioles is that, unlike so many of their peers in the AL wild-card race, they don’t also have a chance to win their division. The AL Central and AL West are up for grabs even for teams below .500; the AL East is not. And so Baltimore’s odds reflect that it has just one path to the postseason — and five teams it needs to hop to get there.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 50-57
Run differential: +25
Standing: 4th in AL Central, six games back, four games back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 26.3%

History says: SELL

This is the fourth year I’ve done this piece, and I think this year’s Tigers are the hardest call. Arrange the sample by playoff odds, and 35 percent is about where teams start shifting from buyers to sellers. Arrange it by run differential, and +30 is about where it shifts. Arrange it by proximity to the playoffs, and three games out is where it moves.

The Tigers sit near (but just below) all three fault lines. Oh, and by the way, they have the game’s pre-eminent ace in his walk year. Easy call, eh?

(In case you’re wondering, the 2023 Angels team that bought in Shohei Ohtani’s last season had a better record but about half the playoff odds of Detroit.)

Given normal personnel, this would be a time to fringe buy, light sell or thread the needle. These Tigers, though, should choose a real and proper lane. While my default is to buy, the tiebreaker here is a record that’s seven under .500. In a normal year for the American League, this team isn’t close to contending, and it hasn’t played good baseball in about 12 months. That says seller.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 49-55
Run differential: -66
Standing: 5th in NL Central, 16 games back, 4 1/2 back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 2.2%

History says: SELL

No team with playoff odds as low as Cincinnati’s has acted as a buyer in our sample. (The closest is those 2021 Cardinals, who bought despite odds of 3.2 percent, won 17 games in a row, and made the postseason.) The Reds are closer to the playoffs than that St. Louis team by games back (4 1/2 rather than eight). However, because Cincinnati is 12th in the NL, it needs to hop six teams to make it. Those Cardinals only needed to pass two teams.

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 49-58
Run differential: -61
Standing: 5th in AL East, 14 games back, five back of final wild card
Playoff odds: 8.2%

History says: SELL

The good news, if you’re Toronto, is this: The teams that have been in this position and bought have done well. Those ’21 Cardinals made the postseason, the 2015 Rangers (4.1 percent odds) won their division, and the 2021 Braves (7 percent odds) won the World Series. The bad news is those teams all had better run differentials than the Blue Jays, who more closely resemble the stats of the 2017 Orioles (10th in the AL, 3 1/2 games back with a minus-69 differential when they were a fringe buyer) than anyone else in the group. That Baltimore team didn’t make the postseason and bottomed out in 2018.

CHICAGO — The theme was “Christmas in July,” but at Rate Field on Monday, it felt more like October.

Dueling chants from New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox fans filled the air amid late-game drama. Every hit, catch, bobble, throw and send felt significant.

The announced crowd was just over 22,000 for the first of a four-game series against the Yankees (who are in Chicago all week to face the Sox and Cubs), but it felt like a sold-out stadium.

The return of meaningful baseball on the South Side has been a recurring storyline since April. It’s no longer a novelty. But now, with a week left until the trade deadline and a postseason berth something the Sox could lose rather than luck into, it feels a little more real.

On Monday night, it felt a little more fraught.

A buzzy atmosphere didn’t help the AL Central-leading Sox, as a postseason-like moment felt a little too big in a 9-5 loss to New York.

The Sox committed three errors, and that doesn’t include a few mental miscues or Justin Jirschele’s too-aggressive send home of Colson Montgomery in the seventh that saw him get thrown out by a country mile.

“It was a sloppy game defensively, even in some plays that didn’t end in errors, you know, just not sharp there,” White Sox manager Will Venable said. “That impacted the game obviously and really was the difference there.”

Before the game, Venable scoffed at the idea the start was important to embattled rookie Noah Schultz, who looked like he’s on the precipice of losing his spot in the rotation.

“I think it’s just an important outing because we have to find a way to beat the Yankees,” he said.

That one-game-at-a-time spiel is always in a manager’s repertoire, but when you’re a handful of games over .500 and two games up in the division and a bad week or two could still separate you from the postseason, well, it doesn’t feel phony.

The Sox lost two of three in the Bronx in June, and Monday they surrendered an early 3-0 lead. Schultz erased three perfect innings with a wobbly fourth. These things matter.

Venable said he liked the step forward from Schultz, and maybe if the stakes were a little lower right now, he would have let him work out of a jam in the fourth. But Schultz loaded the bases and was pulled after a run-scoring groundout. That, too, felt very October-ish.

The Yankees, who have their own issues, wound up scoring four runs in the inning and scored four in the eighth off normally reliable reliever Sean Newcomb.

With their third loss in the last four games, the Sox dropped to 33-20 at the Rate, which is still one of the best home records in baseball. Their success on the South Side and their resiliency — they haven’t lost more than three consecutive games all season — has them in a situation few would’ve believed going into the season.

Yes, for the first time in a long time, the White Sox (55-50 with a two-game edge over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central) are the favorites. If you ask Vegas, anyway.

After Monday’s game, they were listed at +125 to win the AL Central on BetMGM and +130 on DraftKings. Cleveland (54-53) was second at +155 and +160. On Opening Day, the Sox were +3000 to win the division (for the layman, that means they were 30-to-1), according to Covers.com. They’ve been chipping away ever since.

Over at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs, the Sox are projected to finish just a tick (less than a game) below the Guardians, who got rained out Monday.

No, they’re not the 1991 Atlanta Braves, but just two years removed from the worst season in modern-baseball history, the worst-to-first turnaround is even more impressive.

So can the Sox make the playoffs? Absolutely. The projections will tell you it’s a coin flip. Before Monday, I would have said it was an eventuality given this team has been immune to losing streaks. But then I started thinking about how many games are in August and September and how it’s a long, winding road to October.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz has the opinion that counts. And we’re all curious to see how far he will go to bolster a team that is at least a year ahead of schedule. Will he trade big-name prospects for rentals? Will he go for the jugular in a weak American League?

Like pretty much every playoff contender in the history of the game, the Sox need pitching. You can never have enough. They need multiple starters, relievers and a closer. They clearly need reinforcements.

With so many teams in contention in a three-wild-card world, it’s going to be a seller’s market. Is Caleb Bonemer, the team’s second-best prospect after No. 1 pick Roch Cholowsky, an untouchable? I wouldn’t trade him unless you’re getting, say, San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller back. And though this is a precious opportunity — as Sox fans know, playoff baseball doesn’t come to the South Side very often — this isn’t an “If not now, when?” moment either.

My intuition is Getz doesn’t want to go wild shooting for the moon this season. He’s rebuilt a bad farm system, and he’s looking for that sustained success sweet spot — especially with future majority owner Justin Ishbia waiting in the wings. But he has to invest more in this team. He knows that. They’ve earned it.

Getz has done an impressive job adding talent on the margins, guys such as Tristan Peters and Randal Grichuk, who have made a difference. His front office has done impressive work with little money or expectations. I’m intrigued to see what he does with a bigger spotlight.

Though the oddsmakers and algorithms were understandably pessimistic about this team, White Sox players have been confident since the offseason. A solid finish to a 102-loss season coupled with the signing of Munetaka Murakami and some bullpen additions gave them hope. By spring training, it was belief.

“Last year, we got a lot of excitement after the second half, and we came into this season with a lot of new pieces that can help us win a lot of baseball games,” third baseman Miguel Vargas told me at the end of spring training.

“I mean, this is a group to be excited about,” second baseman Chase Meidroth said at the time.

I smiled, nodded my head and picked the Sox to win 72 games, a modest 12-game improvement from 2025.

I’m now certain the Sox won’t lose 90 games. A weak division has given them an opening. Now comes the hard part. They have to take it.

The Atlanta Falcons’ veterans report to training camp on Tuesday, joining the rookies who reported on Friday, and the full team’s first day on the practice field is Wednesday. That means we’ll finally start getting some answers about what new coach Kevin Stefanski’s team will look like.

Here are the top five storylines heading into camp, starting, of course, at quarterback.

The QB competition

The first question is whether Michael Penix Jr. will be cleared for full work. He was held out of 11-on-11 drills throughout the spring while rehabbing the torn ACL he suffered on Nov. 16. He did work in seven-on-seven drills and expressed optimism that he would be a full participant for the opening day of training camp, but Stefanski stopped short of predicting that.

Penix, who enters his third year in the league after being the eighth pick in the 2024 draft, is fighting with six-year veteran Tua Tagovailoa to retain the starting job Penix held before his injury last year. Tagovailoa joined the Falcons on a one-year, $1.2 million contract after being released by the Dolphins.

The competition “has been nothing but good since he got here,” Penix said. “We know we’re in a competition, but we’re on the same team and have the same goals, and that’s to win games. We’ve been good together.”

The Falcons have had five players start at quarterback (Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota, Taylor Heinicke, Kirk Cousins and Penix) since trading Matt Ryan following the 2021 season. Ryan, Falcons fans no doubt remember, was hired in the offseason as Atlanta’s new president of football.

James Pearce Jr.’s status

The Falcons’ second-year edge rusher is expected to participate in training camp despite his ongoing legal situation. Pearce, who was arrested in February and faces three felony charges in Florida following a domestic dispute with former girlfriend Rickea Jackson, skipped all of the team’s voluntary workouts during the offseason but was on the field for a two-day minicamp in June. He is enrolled in a 12-month pretrial intervention program that could result in all of his charges being dismissed, but the NFL is still expected to impose a suspension.

The league has wide latitude to suspend players under its personal-conduct policy regardless of the outcome of criminal proceedings, and situations similar to Pearce’s have resulted in multiple-game suspensions. Pearce finished third in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting last year after leading all first-year players — and the Falcons — with 10.5 sacks.

“We’ll see if we’ve got a guy here who can replace that role,” defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich said this spring. “I’m excited about the guys that we have, whether it be Samson (Ebukam) or Bralen (Trice). There are countless guys, like Azeez (Ojulari), and we’ll see what they can do collectively.”

The new right side

For the second straight year, Atlanta is making a change at right tackle. Kaleb McGary, who was the 31st pick in the 2019 draft and started 92 games at right tackle from 2019 to 2024, retired in the offseason after missing all of the 2025 season due to a knee injury. Last year, the Falcons filled in with Elijah Wilkinson, who left in free agency this offseason.

Now Atlanta is going with Jawaan Taylor, who was picked four spots after McGary in the 2019 draft. Taylor has started 120 games for the Jaguars and Chiefs over the last seven years, including nine in the playoffs. He signed a one-year, $5 million deal shortly after McGary retired in April, but he sat out the spring with a leg injury. He is expected to be ready for training camp.

Two months after adding Taylor, the Falcons traded for Wanya Morris, who was Taylor’s backup in Kansas City for the last three seasons. Morris was a third-round pick in 2023.

Finding wide receivers

The nine wide receivers on Atlanta’s roster who aren’t Drake London have a total of 317 catches in 16 NFL seasons. Most of those come from free-agent additions Olamide Zaccheaus (188 catches in seven years) and Jahan Dotson (121 in four years). That looks like the Falcons’ three-man starting lineup to start the season, at least.

Third-round draft pick Zachariah Branch will be in that rotation and could bump Dotson or Zaccheaus from the starting lineup if he has a strong training camp. After that, Chris Blair (one catch in three seasons) and Dylan Drummond (seven catches in two seasons) are next in line simply because they’ve seen an NFL field. UDFAs Vinny Anthony II, Keelan Marion, Le’Meke Brockington and free agent Antwane Wells Jr. fill out the roster heading into camp, but general manager Ian Cunningham will be scouring the league for the next five weeks in hopes of strengthening that room.

Getting back on the field?

The first few days of training camp will give us a better idea of who’s healthy and who’s not. Several players — such as Taylor, safety Xavier Watts and fourth-round linebacker Kendal Daniels — sat out the spring with what Stefanski characterized as minor injuries. All three are expected back on the field at full speed this week, and it will be notable if they’re not.

Of more interest will be players such as cornerback Billy Bowman and linebackers JD Bertrand and Troy Andersen. Bowman suffered a torn Achilles in November and was held out throughout the spring. Bertrand and Andersen were also sidelined this spring, and both are entering a critical training camp. Bertrand, a fifth-round pick in 2024 who started two games last year, could have a hard time making the 53-man roster after the Falcons added four linebackers in the offseason.

Andersen would be expected to make the roster if he were healthy, but he hasn’t been healthy in a long time. A second-round pick in 2022, he hasn’t played since Week 14 of the 2024 season. He has started 11 games in three years while missing time due to a concussion, a torn pectoral muscle and multiple knee issues.