It’s buy, sell, hold time for real baseball teams, so we’ll get in on the fun here. Here are some of the more notable names that changed uniforms this week. I’m not doing a full writeup on Tarik Skubal, but my spidey sense says that an otherworldly ace on baseball’s best team should work out OK. Though actually, if you want the galaxy brain take, maybe you sell him for a massive haul in head-to-head leagues with playoffs because the Dodgers might start messing with his innings at the end of the season to get ready for their playoff run. Or just be a normal person and hold your ace. On to the rest!
Buy
Kevin Gausman, CHC
I listed Gausman as a hold not too long ago on the theory that he’d strand a few more runners and get his ERA into the high-3s range going forward. Now he’s pitching in front of the best defense in the game, and he should have a better shot at wins. He’s had a rough stretch recently, but I think he’ll be 12-team relevant going forward.
Dustin May, SP, MIL
May has quietly had an excellent season, despite starting the year with a couple of blowups and suffering two more at the end of June and start of July. In his past 12 starts, despite the rough outings, he’s delivered ace peripherals: a 28% strikeout rate, a 7.9% walk rate, and 2.58 FIP. Now he heads to one of the sport’s best teams, which tends to get great results from its pitchers. I question whether he can keep up the strikeout rate without missing more bats, but that’s the sort of issue I worry about more year-to-year than in-season. He should get a regular spot in the Brewers’ rotation and could end up as their second starter in the playoffs.
Freddy Peralta, SP, TBR
I’m optimistic about Peralta, especially compared to what he’s done so far this year, but the Rays didn’t buy him to keep doing what he’s been doing, and neither will your leaguemates. Depending on your league, he might be on the wire or surprisingly expensive. He’s a buy here because the track record is excellent, and he hasn’t lost any velocity. The Rays have a reputation for getting great results out of good stuff. Presumably they see something to work with here. The weird part is that Peralta’s stuff has been down across the board this year, and it hasn’t been any better in his recent starts. The trade gives you something to dream on, but don’t pay full price for that dream.
Kade Anderson, SP, SEA
It’s time, right? The trade of Luis Castillo opens a spot in the Mariners’ rotation, and out of a sense of decency for opposing hitters in Double A, the Mariners should bring up the sport’s top pitching prospect. With Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller, they still have a good starting five, but the guess here is that one of them becomes a long-reliever and Anderson makes his debut soon. You never know how a player will fare in their first look at The Show, but Anderson has ace-level stuff.
Sell
José Soriano, SP, TOR
I don’t like this one for the Blue Jays. Part of it is that they’re paying for two months in a season that isn’t especially meaningful for them (this is a next year and beyond trade for them), but the other part is that I’m not that into Soriano right now. His Stuff+ has tumbled in his past 10 starts to 93 (from 102 in the dozen starts before then), partly due to him losing a tick on his fastball. The results tell a similar story. He remains excellent at inducing grounders, and he still gets strikeouts, but he gives up too many walks, and the stuff downturn has coincided with worse results on batted balls. He still logs plenty of good starts, but I don’t trust him.
Robbie Ray, SP, SDP
I don’t see too much to work with here, now that the K rate is barely above 20%, but Ray has an ERA of 1.09 over his past seven starts. He’s mostly achieving that by not giving up home runs and stranding lots of runners. I’m willing to give him a little bit of wily veteran credit — maybe he’s figured out how to keep hitters off balance with his limited stuff — but I can’t bet on him to keep this up.
Taylor Ward, OF, SEA
Ward’s power has taken a big step back this year, and I don’t expect that to change in Seattle. He has managed to compensate by turning into a walks machine, so he still plays in OBP leagues, but that’s about it. I also wonder if he will get regular time against righties or if he’s mostly a short-side platoon now. The Mariners have gotten good results out of their hitter acquisitions recently, but I’ll believe it when I see it here.
Luis Castillo, SP, CHW
I’m not sure if there’s a buyer on the other end here, but if there is, go ahead and sell. Nothing has been working for Castillo this year, and moving out of a pitcher’s park won’t help. If you want some hope to reach for, he managed a pretty good season last year with similar Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ numbers. You can fish for wins with favorable matchups, but he’ll always be a ratios risk.
Hold
Jo Adell, OF, CLE
I wished for a change of scenery for Adell, and the baseball gods must have been listening. Unfortunately, it’s a park downgrade for homers, and homers are why you have Adell. Cleveland is also one of the few landing spots where Adell doesn’t get lineup improvement, but I’m just excited to have his raw ability with a different set of coaches. As noted last week, he has probably deserved better results than what he’s had so far.
Luis García, 1B, NYY
Have you read “Thinking, Fast and Slow”? It’s good, and here’s the book’s main thesis in action: I hear “hitter traded from the Nationals to the Yankees,” and the fast part of my brain immediately says “upgrade.” Better park, better lineup. Then the slow part of my brain catches up and asks, “Wait, are either of those true?” The answer is “no” in almost every way.
The Nationals’ offense has been one of baseball’s big surprises this year, partly due to García, but more so the mega seasons of CJ Abrams and James Wood. Since Aaron Judge went down on May 31, the Yankees have the worst team wOBA in MLB, and the Nationals have the best. As for the parks, they’re both about neutral on the whole, but Yankee Stadium does play better for left-handed power. García remains a good platoon bat, but don’t expect more than what he’s done.
Luis Arraez, 2B, PHI
Arraez is now a Phillie, which should be great for his counting stats. He’s also headed to a much better hitter’s park for righties. That’s obviously a positive, though one that’s partly muted by Arraez’s low-end power. While it’s certainly possible that the move takes his excellent season to a new level, I think it’s more likely that it helps Arraez maintain his output. His counting stats, despite coming from a patchy Giants lineup, have been on the best pace of his career, other than homers. He’s been outperforming his expected stats by a healthy margin, and the change in venue may offset the likely regression by leading to a few more home runs.
Additionally, Arraez has minimal platoon splits and plays good defense. The team is expected to install him at second base, with Bryson Stott moving to third and Alec Bohm shifting across the diamond to first base. That means Bryce Harper is heading to the outfield. Given all their options to work with, the team might find him more rest for Arraez than he was getting, but not much more. He’s there to play.
