We are, if you can believe it, at the quarter pole of MLB’s regular season. It’s time to reboot our annual stretch-run “Schedule Watch” segment.

This is the first of three check-ins over the final seven weeks of the regular season. In this edition, we’re covering the next three weeks of games, with Part 2 (Aug. 31) and Part 3 (Sept. 14) covering two weeks apiece. There’s some wacky stuff ahead in August: Contenders in makeup games, doubleheaders, the Field of Dreams game and the Little League Classic.

Below, we have listed each contender’s remaining August schedule, their playoff odds and strength-of-schedule figures — both provided by FanGraphs — and picked a key upcoming series. All MLB teams with at least a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs were included.

Teams are listed in order of playoff odds. Winning percentages and odds are updated through Sunday afternoon.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Tampa Bay Rays

Record: 71-46
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .507

Key series: Aug. 14-17 vs. Orioles, Aug. 21-23 at Orioles

The Rays are wrapping up a nine-game West Coast road trip and get a day off before beginning a four-game home series against Baltimore. That’s a vulnerable team, yet the Rays are only 3-3 against the Orioles this season. Now, after the O’s sold at the trade deadline, Tampa plays them seven times over the next three weeks. The Rays need to take advantage of this stretch, because their season ends with 10 games against the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies. Not an easy way to finish. They need to create some breathing room now.

New York Yankees

Record: 66-52
Playoff odds: 99 percent
Strength of schedule: .497

Key series: Aug. 28-30 vs. Red Sox

The Red Sox are winning the season series against the Yankees, but at 5-4 with an even run differential, it’s been very close. The next Yankees-Red Sox series comes at the end of a long homestand, which would be a good time for the Yankees to build momentum before a relatively weak schedule in September — Angels, Padres, Rockies, Mets, Twins out of the gate. Boston has been surging since before the All-Star break, and the upcoming four-game set is the Yankees’ last chance to slow them down and perhaps secure a better head-to-head record.

Boston Red Sox

Record: 64-53
Playoff odds: 95.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .503

Key series: Aug. 28-30 at Yankees

Sure, we picked this series for the Yankees, too, but does any other series stand out from this upcoming schedule? The Red Sox have been rolling, and these next two weeks are a chance to keep the good times going before a four-game rivalry showdown. The Red Sox, who have won five of nine games against the Yankees this season, could make a massive statement in the AL East with a series win here at Yankee Stadium. Do that, and we will be circling the Red Sox’s final road series of the season: Tampa.

Houston Astros

Record: 60-58
Playoff odds: 60.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .496

Key series: Aug. 14-16 vs. Mariners

Three of these upcoming series are against teams that sold at the deadline, and another is against the Athletics, who effectively did nothing. The exceptions are the Yankees and Mariners. The Astros — a team that had a 13.3 percent chance of making the playoffs as recently as July 18 — are ahead of the Mariners in the NL West but have lost seven of their eight meetings. That’s a problem in a division that still has three teams in the mix. The Mariners series is the start of a long homestand for the Astros. Beat the M’s, gain steam and start pulling away. Lose the series, and there’s a sinking sense of trouble at the doorstep.

Texas Rangers

Record: 59-59
Playoff odds: 54.5 percent
Strength of schedule: .486

Key series: Aug. 24-26 at White Sox

The Rangers’ last two opponents were the Giants and Orioles, and up next are the Angels, A’s, Nationals and Angels again. That’s six straight series against teams that were broadly sellers at the deadline. (No wonder the Rangers’ playoff odds, which were at 31 percent on Aug. 2, are surging.) Then comes a road series against the White Sox, a surprisingly competitive team that could end up battling Texas for a wild-card spot. The Rangers need to take advantage of these next two weeks, but that road trip to face the White Sox and Brewers is a big one ahead of a potentially difficult chunk of games at the start of September.

Chicago White Sox

Record: 61-56
Playoff odds: 51.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .495

Key series: Aug. 14-16 at Tigers

This could be a tricky stretch for the White Sox, and that Tigers series feels like a trap. The Tigers sold at the trade deadline, but their run differential remains better than the White Sox and is one of the best in the American League. Plus, the return of right-hander Jackson Jobe from the injured list eases the sting of trading starters Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. The White Sox have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. They can’t afford to be knocked to the ground by a team that suddenly has nothing to lose and a lot to prove.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 58-61
Playoff odds: 34.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .477

Key series: Aug. 11-13 at Tigers

Like the White Sox, the Guardians are trying to assert themselves as the dominant force in the AL Central. They’ve done it before, but it seems to catch people off guard every time. Cleveland opens this next stretch in Detroit against the team many expected to win the division. The Tigers have a better run differential than the Guardians and are hoping to do more than play spoiler down the stretch. Yes, the Tigers sold at the deadline, but they also sold in 2024 and made the playoffs anyway, nearly taking down the Guardians in the ALDS. These next three weeks are a pretty good opportunity for the Guardians to make some hay.

Detroit Tigers

Record: 58-60
Playoff odds: 32.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .493

Key series: Aug. 11-13 vs. Guardians; Aug. 14-16 vs. White Sox

Say this much for the Tigers: if they’re going to sneak into the playoffs after selling at the deadline (again), they’re going to earn it. Ahead in August, they have statement opportunities in series against two of the best teams in baseball — the Dodgers and Rays. Before that, they have back-to-back home series against teams they’re chasing in the AL Central. Call them Key Series A and Key Series B. The easiest way for the Tigers to be considered serious contenders down the stretch would be to dominate this upcoming homestand.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 56-63
Playoff odds: 29.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .491

Key series: Aug. 14-16 at Astros

It starts right away for the Mariners, who are beginning a tough run against a bunch of playoff contenders, including consecutive series against three of the best teams in the NL. There’s a temptation to single out the Yankees series — might as well begin this stretch on a good note! — but the AL West has been so back and forth that these three games in Houston could be difference-makers. The Mariners, whose playoff odds are down 20 percent in the past week, are 7-1 against the Astros this season and would like to maintain that pace as they try to pull ahead in the division for the first time since early July.

Minnesota Twins

Record: 58-61
Playoff odds: 24.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .494

Key series: Aug. 28-30 vs. White Sox

The Twins and Phillies play the Field of Dreams game in Iowa on Aug. 13. That starts a challenging stretch in which the Twins face three consecutive NL contenders. Those aren’t easy matchups. Yet they don’t have the divisional implications of the three-game set against the White Sox. The Twins decided to buy (moderately) at the trade deadline. They are in full pursuit of at least a wild-card spot. To get that, or to win the AL Central, they’ll almost certainly have to pass the White Sox. The two teams have six head-to-head games remaining.

Baltimore Orioles

Record: 57-61
Playoff odds: 12.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .504

Key series: Aug. 14-17 at Rays; Aug. 21-23 vs. Rays

This stretch of the schedule could further disintegrate the Orioles’ hanging-by-a-thread playoff odds. The Twins are no pushover, and then come 10 games against the Rays and Yankees. If the O’s can withstand that stretch, they will have earned their spot on our next Schedule Watch installment. If not, we will just start looking ahead to 2027.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 74-44
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .521

Key series: Aug. 13-16 at Dodgers

Despite sweeping the regular-season series against the Dodgers last year, the Brewers were swept by the eventual World Series champs in the NLCS. More recently, the Brewers dropped a series to the Dodgers in May. In this four-game series, Milwaukee has a shot to take back the playoff tiebreaker. Don’t overlook the Atlanta series a week later, a three-game set that will conclude with the Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa. The Braves would love to nab a wild-card bye over the Brewers or Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 70-48
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .484

Key series: Aug. 13-16 vs. Brewers

If the baseball gods had a sense of humor, they’d have placed this series 10 days earlier and let Tarik Skubal make his Dodgers debut at home against the Brewers, a team that engaged in extensive trade talks about Skubal and would much rather he be in the visiting clubhouse at Dodger Stadium for this series. Alas. The Dodgers took two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee in late May but avoided ace Jacob Misiorowski in that series. It doesn’t appear they’ll be as fortunate this time.

Atlanta Braves

Record: 71-47
Playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .509

Key series: Aug. 21-23 at Brewers; Aug. 25-27 vs. Dodgers

This is a critical stretch for the Braves as they attempt to buoy their chances at a playoff bye. They must hold off the Phillies for the division title and overtake at least one of the Dodgers and Brewers. Atlanta currently holds the head-to-head playoff tiebreaker over all three clubs, though Milwaukee and Los Angeles still could take it back. Before the end of the month, the Braves will play in the Little League Classic (Aug. 23) and two doubleheaders: Aug. 20 at the White Sox, and Aug. 31 vs. the Giants.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 69-50
Playoff odds: 98.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .500

Key series: Aug. 17-19 vs. White Sox

This relatively soft stretch of schedule is a chance for the Cubs to gain ground in the NL Central while the first-place Brewers face the two division leaders and three teams in the hunt for wild-card spots. Things get tougher for Chicago in September, as they will face the Brewers seven times. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. When the Cubs and White Sox squared off in May, they split the first two games, and the rubber match went into extras. The Cubs scored first but left the bases loaded in the 10th. White Sox catcher Edgar Quero made them pay, hitting a two-run walk-off homer.

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 63-56
Playoff odds: 80.5 percent
Strength of schedule: .502

Key series: Aug. 17-19 vs. Marlins

While all eyes will be on the Phillies’ Aug. 13 affair with the Twins in an Iowa cornfield, the Marlins series is the only remaining one this month against a team that poses a realistic threat to Philadelphia in the wild-card standings. The Phillies and Marlins have split their first 10 games this season. The Marlins swept their series ahead of the trade deadline, walking off against Phillies closer Jhoan Duran in the first game, pitching a shutout in the second game, and coming from behind again in the finale.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 63-56
Playoff odds: 54.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .496

Key series: Aug. 24-26 vs. Cubs

Any chance to take a couple of games from a fellow wild-card candidate is important, especially when that team swept you earlier in the year. The Cubs won all three games against the D-Backs in a blustery weekend series at Wrigley Field in early May. Arizona would like to return the favor on their climate-controlled home turf this month. The Diamondbacks end the month with four games in three days versus the Giants, against whom Arizona is 8-1 with a plus-29 run differential this season.

San Diego Padres

Record: 61-57
Playoff odds: 36.6 percent
Strength of schedule: .499

Key series: Aug. 10-12 vs. Brewers

Well, it ain’t gonna be easy, but after climbing from 7.4 percent playoff odds on July 22 to nearly 40 percent now, San Diego is up to the challenge. A treacherous three-week stretch begins with the Padres hosting the Brewers. These teams have yet to meet in 2026. San Diego won the season series last year, but in the Wild-Card Round, the Padres fell a couple runs short of advancing to face Milwaukee. The Padres beefed up their rotation at the trade deadline, and it appears both Casey Mize and Robbie Ray are lined up to pitch in this series, while Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski is not.

Miami Marlins

Record: 60-59
Playoff odds: 10.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .509

Key series: Aug. 21-23 vs. Nationals; Aug. 28-31 at Nationals

As important as it is for the Marlins to win games against direct competitors for playoff spots, the whole point of the stretch run is to stack wins. Here’s an opportunity. Miami has owned the Nationals this year. While then-Nats lefty Foster Griffin (now a Guardian) beat the Marlins in these teams’ first meeting back in May, the Fish won the next five games against Washington by a combined score of 31-16. Now, here are seven games in 11 days against those same guys. Stack some wins.