Gold just did something it almost never does: it fell to a one-year low below $3,900 an ounce even as geopolitical jitters around Iran returned. According to MarketWatch’s reporting on the selloff, the safe-haven metal keeps sliding despite every headline that would normally send buyers rushing in.
Gold prices (Credits: MarketWatch)
Friday’s selloff pushed spot gold to roughly $3,880 an ounce, down 3.5% on the day, its weakest level since October 6, 2025, when it touched an intraday low of $3,884.61. The metal is down nearly 3% on the week and heading for a second straight monthly loss, with October on course to close down about 6%.
Why Gold Is Falling Despite Iran Tensions
The paradox is explained by the very conflict weighing on markets. The ongoing Iran war has kept oil prices elevated, with West Texas Intermediate climbing above $103 a barrel, its highest since May, on concerns Washington could resume military strikes against Iran after next week’s U.S. midterm elections. Higher oil means higher inflation, and higher inflation keeps central banks hawkish, which is poison for non-yielding gold.
Philip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, told Kitco that the market rule right now is simple: “you are supposed to buy the inflation, and oil right now is the inflation.” In this environment, he said, oil and the dollar are taking gold’s usual safe-haven role. When a tech selloff hit after disappointing Alphabet and Amazon results, investors sold gold to cover margin calls elsewhere. “Gold is liquid, so it is the first thing that gets sold when people need cash.”
What Analysts Are Watching Next
The pressure is compounded by a hawkish Federal Reserve that left rates unchanged in October, with markets pricing in a 75-80% chance of a December hike and more tightening possibly ahead through 2027. September’s PCE inflation gauge rose 0.5%, the largest monthly advance since March.
Naeem Aslam, CIO of Zaye Capital Markets, said next week’s U.S. midterm elections could shift the outlook: if Democrats regain control of Congress, it could become harder for the Trump administration to continue its war with Iran, and anything that eases Middle East tensions and the energy supply crunch could be positive for gold. Silver moved the same way Friday, sliding 6% to $49.30 an ounce, its lowest since November 2025.
For now, the safe-haven playbook is upside down: the war that should be helping gold is the reason it is falling.
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Source: MarketWatch — read the full story there.
