Bitcoin is heading into the 2026 US midterm elections in a way it never has before. According to CoinDesk’s Daybook, BTC is trading around $76,990 — about 5.2% above its 200-day average of roughly $73,169. In each of the last three midterm elections, the situation on election day was the opposite.
Bitcoin’s Midterm Election Pattern Since 2014
In 2014, 2018 and 2022, bitcoin traded below its 200-day average on midterm election day — by about 35%, 9% and 22% respectively. Those were all bear market years, consistent with the four-year halving cycle, in which bitcoin typically peaks roughly 18 months after a halving and then drops into a year-long bear market. 2026 was supposed to follow the same script after BTC peaked above $126,000 in October 2025. Instead, this year’s bear market was both shallow and front-loaded, with most of the drop happening in January and February, which is why bitcoin is already back above the 200-day average.
What Happens Next for Bitcoin
CoinDesk notes that the old pattern may have been the halving cycle in disguise rather than anything about elections. Historically, the first few months after a midterm have been choppy to slightly bearish for BTC, but it has been higher 12 months later every time. “Cautious optimism is the approach we’re taking,” Martin Lee, research lead at DWF Labs, told CoinDesk, adding that “history favors BTC on a 12-month horizon, but expect near-term volatility, especially if the war escalates and the AI trade keeps weighing on risk assets.” This is a market observation, not investment advice — crypto remains volatile and unpredictable.
(Credits: CoinDesk)
Also Read: Bitcoin Steadies Near $76,900 After $76,300 Dip as ETF Outflows and Midterms Weigh on Crypto | Nasdaq-100 Enters Third Correction of 2026 as AI Spending Worries Rattle Tech Stocks
Source: CoinDesk — read the full story there.
