Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the Premier League weekend.

Arsenal vs Leeds United, Saturday 12.30pm

Three weeks. That’s a long time in football.

This international break with nations playing up to four matches rather than the usual two has the potential to have a huge effect on this Premier League return. Fatigue, injuries, travel and late returns mixed in with teams still developing tactical identity so early in the season is going to influence matters more than the betting markets portray.

The key is that the first half is the period most vulnerable to disruption after this break which I’m betting will be even more of a factor with the added time away on international duty in this unique break.

When looking across the last five seasons in the Championship and Premier League in the matchday after the first international break, the numbers show that first-half goals per game go down by 0.3 of a goal. First-half goal averages have come in at 1.22 across that period in the Championship and Premier League but fall to 0.92 in the first matchday after the first international break.

The numbers become even more interesting when just assessing the Premier League during that period where the average is just 0.82 goals per first half. During that period the chances of a half-time 0-0 have increased too, with 50 per cent of the matches in that five-year sample size seeing no goals scored before the break. That is a huge spike on the long-term numbers across five years of Premier League games which tell us that the normal average strike-rate for a 0-0 at half-time is just 27 per cent.

Remarkably, Leeds have only conceded two first-half goals in their last 20 matches across all competitions with 11 of those games seeing a 0-0 come in at the break. It’s a big runner here at 9/4 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 0-0 at half-time (9/4 with Sky Bet)

Aston Villa vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

The Premier League has become such a congested – and at times bonkers – league that we’ve reached the stage where Brentford are almost being priced as favourites to beat Aston Villa at Villa Park. I get the love for Brentford – but ranking them above an Unai Emery side on home soil feels like a dangerous game to play.

The market still looks cold on Villa, but I think their rebuild is quietly coming together. Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson all shone in the win at Tottenham and, despite so many new faces, there was an encouraging cohesion to Villa’s performance.

That shouldn’t necessarily come as a surprise.

These players are working under a manager who knows exactly what he is doing, especially after an international break where Emery is unbeaten across his last 10 matches with Villa, winning six of them.

With home advantage, a manager I trust implicitly and a price of 13/8 with Sky Bet, I’m happy to take on the market forces when it comes to Brentford. Home win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Chelsea vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

The loss of Alex Scott will make Bournemouth a less effective team – our job is to work out whether the market has reacted sufficiently enough to the news of his unavailability for six weeks with a tendon issue.

The Cherries have played four times without Scott in the Premier League since the start of last season and failed to win all four, including a disappointing 1-1 draw with Burnley at home – a small sample size of course but certainly relevant.

Chelsea are 7/10 with Sky Bet for victory which is bordering on tempting but the best way in is to add goals to the mix. All five of Chelsea’s games have gone over 2.5 goals with the average coming in at 4.4 per game whilst both teams to score has landed in 13 of Bournemouth’s last 17 away games.

Goals look guaranteed, so combining Chelsea to win, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 6/4 with Sky Bet rates as a savvy way to attack this game.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Ipswich Town vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm

Time to roll the Leif Davis dice again whilst the prices remain inflated.

Davis is playing as an aggressive left-back in Gary O’Neil’s 4-2-3-1 and has become one of Ipswich’s principal attacking outlets. His attacking position means he’s effectively functioning as another winger when Ipswich have sustained possession. This role is bringing the best out of Davis, who in his last four starts has had six shots, three of those hitting the target and scoring twice. Ipswich should find space to work with in this winnable fixture so the 11/4 on Davis to score or assist makes significant appeal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Leif Davis to score or assist (11/4 with Sky Bet)

Sunderland vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!

The betting markets love Brighton, perhaps too much at times.

That could be the case here where the injury news surrounding Sunderland does have a hint of overreaction to it when assessing the price on a home win at 2/1 with Sky Bet.

Yes, Brian Brobbey and Dan Ballard are big players for the Black Cats but this team is built more on the system and functionality rather than any one individual. Sunderland aren’t some hopelessly open newly-promoted side waiting to be demolished. Their underlying profile is very strong at the Stadium of Light. Since promotion, they have lost just five times in 24 home matches and have conceded less than a goal per game in that sample size.

To get them on the draw no bet line at 11/10 with Sky Bet makes lots of sense to back.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!

In a league where winning duels, playing with intensity and where physicality provides the bedrock for winning games, Manchester United’s running stats this season are becoming an issue for them and their prospects of winning games. In their last game at Fulham, United were outrun by a total of 6.5km – this is the second most a team has been outrun by an opponent in a Premier League match this season.

This season United currently rank in the bottom five for distance covered, in the bottom four for sprints and rank bottom for high-speed runs. They look a team devoid of legs.

Should United fail to win here it would be their worst start to a league season for 40 years – yet the market is expecting a home success with 4/6 on offer with Sky Bet.

As is always the case with Manchester United in the betting markets, the badge is completely skewing what their true price is. They are woefully short here. That makes Spurs a play on the double chance at 6/5 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!

Oliver Glasner faces Crystal Palace for the first time since leaving at the end of last season and this fixture is becoming a little bit more Vindaloo than Korma on the spice chart based on recent meetings.

Not only have Forest pinched Palace’s greatest ever manager, this is a growing rivalry following Forest replacing Palace in the Europa League due to multi-club ownership rules.

Although goals have been in short supply in recent meetings – all four have gone under 2.5 goals – the cards have been flowing with an average of seven cards shown per game and all five going over the 4.5 cards line. The market is sleeping on this added edge between the clubs and are offering Evens for the over 3.5 cards line to be hit – a fantastic bet to attack.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 3.5 cards (Evens with Sky Bet)

Hull City vs Everton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Centre-backs are averaging being fouled once a game against Hull due to Oli McBurnie’s all-action style and the direct play being implemented. Hull’s 21 per cent long-pass rate is the highest in the league and they rank lowest for possession and build-up attacks. Also, McBurnie has competed in the most aerial duels of any Premier League player this season (57). So, this trend of the opposition centre-back being fouled should continue to track at the current averages.

That makes the Evens on offer for Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled once very juicy. The Everton centre-back has been fouled three times in his last two games and will be engaging in battle with McBurnie on regular occasions.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled (Evens with Sky Bet)

Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!

Anfield is going to be exceptionally hostile following the news of Man City being found guilty of serious financial-rule breaches across nine seasons by an independent Premier League Commission – a sanction City have appealed against, so the sporting consequences are not yet settled.

The important point to make from a betting perspective when analysing this game is that there is little evidence so far that the verdict has destabilised the playing group. It’s too early to make that assumption.

Pep Guardiola has publicly backed the club and told supporters that they would get through it together. And, significantly, Erling Haaland has now spoken about the situation, calling for positivity.

This Liverpool team are far from the finished article and have been hit hard by injury issues over the international break.

There is a big possibility of siege mentality winning out when it comes to City and that makes them – a team who are top of the Premier League remember – a tantalising prospect at 7/5 with Sky Bet for the away win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Coventry City vs Newcastle United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Fixture difficulty and toughness of the schedule is always a key angle to consider when assessing teams at this time of the season. Coventry are the only team to have played the top three in the Premier League, losing 8-0 on aggregate in those matches. There could be mitigating circumstances to their poor start. We’ll know more after this fixture.

One area Frank Lampard’s team will look to exploit is from set pieces, where Bobby Thomas brings a massive threat to the table. The centre-back has had 10 shots in five games whilst Newcastle have shipped 31 shots conceded from set pieces already this season – the most of any team.

Thomas popped up with three goals for Coventry in their promotion season and will land for anytime goalscorer backers at some point soon. This might be the time to catch him at 8/1 with Sky Bet.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Jones Knows’ best bets…

• 0-0 half-time correct score in Arsenal vs Leeds (9/4 with Sky Bet)
• Leif Davis to score or assist (11/4 with Sky Bet)
• Over 3.5 cards in Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest (Evens with Sky Bet)
• Jarrad Branthwaite to be fouled (Evens with Sky Bet)