After introducing pitch clocks and the ABS system in recent years, Major League Baseball’s innovation initiative is expanding to the All-Star festivities. The 2026 Home Run Derby, held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, will ditch the timed rounds of the recent past in favor of a swing-based limit.

Each of the contestants will have 20 swings in the first round, then 15 in Round 2 and 15 in the final. If that feels uncomfortably new or strange, remember the event will be broadcast exclusively on Netflix, so times really are a-changin’.

MLB home run leader Kyle Schwarber is the favorite at +300 on DraftKings, with last year’s runner-up Junior Caminero the closest challenger at +400. Schwarber has 32 homers so far this year, while Caminaro ranks fourth in MLB with 28.

The 33-year-old Schwarber has home-field advantage and is having a dream season as a power hitter. His 21.8-degree launch angle is the best of his career, as is his sweet spot percentage of 39.5. With the new format, quality contact will be the difference-maker, and Schwarber’s numbers set him up to make the most of his limited swings. He’s also pulling more balls than ever, which sets up perfectly for Citizens Bank Park’s short right-field porch. No ballpark has had more home runs by left-handed hitters since 2024. Schwarber is pulling 34.6 percent of all balls he hits in the air, compared with his career average of 24.3. Nineteen of his bombs this year have come at home.

The park has also favored fellow Phillies slugger Bryce Harper, who’s on pace for his best home run total since his MVP season in 2021. Harper (20 HRs this season) is a Derby long shot at +800, but 144 of his 199 home runs since signing with Philadelphia have came at home, and he’s also the most recent hitter to win a Derby in his home stadium. He did that in his final season as a Washington National in 2018, when Schwarber was the runner-up.

Harper and Schwarber have a Philadelphia crowd that will provide plenty of adrenaline. If you love a good storyline, the odds on both Phillies making the final are +1700.

Schwarber is the favorite for the most homers in Round 1 (+340) with an over-under of 10.5, and oddsmakers have him narrowly behind the right-handed Caminero (+300) as the most likely to hit the longest shot of the night.

The field is packed with lefties ready to take advantage of Citizens Bank Park’s generosity. In addition to Schwarber and Harper, Kansas City Royals outfielder Jac Caglianone (+700), Yankees first baseman Ben Rice (+850), and White Sox rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami (+500) all get the benefit of the short porch, making the event more wide open than it may appear.

St. Louis Cardinals breakout star Jordan Walker (+800) and Red Sox veteran Willson Contreras (+1400) both bat from the right side, which may be part of the reason they are relative long shots. Walker’s size (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) and strength keep him in the mix as a challenger for longest homer at +400.

The hardest number to pin down is the expected total of dingers in the contest, but oddsmakers expect far fewer with the new swing-based format. Even with the lefty-heavy field and generous ballpark, the listed total on DraftKings is 119.5, which has even -110 odds on both the over and under. Last year’s Derby was on the low end but still featured 210 homers.

For comparison, the line for the most home runs by any player in Round 1 is 13.5, which would have been the second-lowest total in Round 1 of last year’s Derby (Jazz Chisholm hit a measly three).

Though the number of fireworks may be down, the size of the blasts should make up for it. Three of the 12 hardest-hit balls this season belong to Derby participants (Caminero, Walker and Caglianone), and five of the eight sluggers have home runs that went at least 450 feet. Caminero, Schwarber and Walker have three of the 12 longest homers of the season. Rice is the only participant who doesn’t average 400 or more feet per homer this year; the 484.5 over-under for longest shot of the night is an attractive bet. The record for longest homer (non-Coors Field division) is 513 feet, which likely won’t get broken, but this field is loaded with enough raw power that 500 feet seems reachable. Caminero and Schwarber have combined for six homers of more than 450 feet, and that was off pitchers specifically trying not to allow a home run.

As far as dark horse bets, Murakami will be popular, given his explosion into the league. The 26-year-old from Japan became the first rookie to ever hit 20 home runs before June, and if not for a hamstring injury that cut his first half short, he could be leading the league in homers. It’s unlikely he’s willing to risk re-injury by giving maximum effort in his first Home Run Derby, but his white-hot start has him third behind Schwarber and Caminero in odds to win the contest.

The show should be electric, even if it’s now “from the studio that brought you Stranger Things.” Baseball is changing, but certain things never do: Everybody loves a long ball.