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World Cup predictions, final and 3/4 play off: Spain vs Argentina and France vs England

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Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.

This article gives you the lowdown on all the weekend’s games but with the bonus of some friendly competition…

Throughout the tournament, we will have one of two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different subscriber to The Athletic each day and ‘Algo’, our shiny new algorithm which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.

Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).

Our guest subscriber today is Zachary from the United States, who supports the USMNT, Scotland, Manchester United and Westchester SC. Good luck!

If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament, please follow the instructions in the article here.


What happened on Matchday 33?

Lionel Messi and Argentina’s dream of retaining the World Cup is alive after booking their place in the final following a dramatic late comeback to beat England 2-1 with goals from Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez.

The first half was a largely uneventful and even contest as the two sides managed only three combined shots, none of which were on target. There was little flow, and neither England nor Argentina’s key players were able to stamp any authority on the game.

The match changed when England took the lead on 56 minutes. Morgan Rogers’ cross found Anthony Gordon at the back post to give Thomas Tuchel’s side the advantage. The rhythm shifted almost immediately with Argentina gaining control and territory as they searched for an equaliser while England began to drop deeper and deeper, defending their lead.

That pattern did not change with Tuchel making further defensive substitutions and, combined with the lack of an out-ball, it allowed Argentina to suffocate their opponents and force them into retreat. It was ideal for Messi, who drifted into the right channel and began dictating the game.

As Tuchel failed from the bench, Lionel Scaloni used his substitutions to great effect with Nicolas Gonzalez, Rodrigo De Paul, Gonzalo Montiel and Martinez all improving the South American champions.

Enzo Fernandez cups his ears after equalising for Argentina

Enzo Fernandez eventually equalised for Argentina (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

It was becoming a matter of when not if Argentina would equalise and the goal came from an excellent Fernandez strike from the edge of the area via a short corner on 85 minutes. Argentina smelt blood and, after playing the pass for the first, Messi provided a second assist with an inch-perfect cross for Martinez to head home from close range in the 92nd minute.

England were unable to respond, leaving them heartbroken and Argentina jubilant.

We may have to call in the patriotism police for Wilfred and Stanley as they correctly picked Argentina to end England’s dreams — but maybe they did it to ease the pain of an England defeat. While Algo is ‘on the beach’ with the title all but confirmed, there is still a fight for second as Wilfred moved one behind us (the experts).

Results from July 15, 2026

In what we might as well call the ‘Silver Final’, our streak of 11 is likely to seal our spot in second unless we both go with different selections for the final two games of the tournament.

Overall
accuracy
Correct
picks
Best
streak
The algorithm 69% 71 14
TA experts 67% 69 11
Wilfred (age 6) 66% 68 7
Reader picks 60% 62 5
Stanley the dog 42% 43 4

How do the predictions work?

It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome.

We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.

So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard — and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.

Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.

Good luck, and enjoy!


Prediction for the Bronze Final

France vs England, Bronze Final, kick-off 5pm ET, 10pm BST

Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC (UK)

Streak Risk Factor: 5/5. This is the game at the start of the tournament that nobody really wants to play in — so close yet so far from the final, and there is no guarantee how managers will approach it with their team selections or how motivated the players will be.

Watch Rating: 3/5. If both teams are up for it then this could be a really entertaining game. There’s a fair chance this sees two sides ready for a holiday and going through the motions. That won’t be fun, especially for those watching a later kick-off in the UK.

Our picks for July 18, 2026

The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Can you remember who finished third in the 2022 World Cup? How long did it take you to recall that Croatia beat Morocco 2-1 thanks to goals from Josko Gvardiol and Mislav Orsic?

“None of our players and none of the French players want to play this match,” Tuchel said in the aftermath of the defeat by Argentina. “They want to play the final.”

“It’s the challenge facing both managers as they attempt to pick up their heartbroken players to play one final match. Naturally the question of why this game takes place has been brought up in the days since the semi-finals, but there is a bronze medal to play for. 

“Will either head coach use this occasion to reward squad players who have not featured much? France head coach Didier Deschamps made his intentions clear when he said: “We’ll do everything we can to get it”, when asked about trying to win. France also have Kylian Mbappe’s Golden Boot aspirations to play for with the striker tied with Lionel Messi on eight goals and one fewer assist (four versus three).

Kylian Mbappe is still hoping to secure the Golden Boot (David Ramos/Getty Images)

“France looked nailed-on finalists until they ran into suffocating Spain. Their aggressive, compact structure out of possession neutralised France’s attacking threat, and a patient, probing in-possession strategy controlled the game.

“Throughout the tournament, if one of France’s front four of Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise or one of Bradley Barcola and Desire Doue was off his peak level, others stepped up. Against Spain, collectively they all had an off-day. The concern for England is that is unlikely to happen twice in a row. 

“England have not shown an ability to control teams through possession during the tournament so trying to replicate Spain’s game plan feels unlikely. They will need one more effort from those who have dragged them through the competition to this point. Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham looked exhausted well before the final whistle against Argentina, but England will need them to produce a big moment one more time. 

“Given the frustration and scrutiny directed at Tuchel after his second-half decisions against Argentina, another defeat would only increase the pressure on him. So it would be a good time — while still a game too late — to show he can game plan to beat the elite. 

The Athletic Soccer Experts: FRANCE WIN 

Guest Subscriber Zachary: FRANCE WIN 

Six-year-old Wilfred: ENGLAND WIN

Stanley the dog: ENGLAND WIN

Algo: FRANCE WIN


Prediction for the World Cup final

Spain vs Argentina, Final, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST

Where to watch: FOX (U.S.), BBC/ITV (UK)

Streak Risk Factor: 4/5. Holders Argentina are finalists for the third time in four tournaments, yet Spain justifiably arrive in New Jersey as comfortable favourites after a dominant display against France in the semi-final.

Watch rating: 5/5. For anyone other than England and France fans, who may not be able to bring themselves to watch after missing out in the last four, this is the absolute must-not-miss event in sport. Can Messi bow out of international football with his second World Cup title and Argentina’s fourth star, or will Spain’s second golden generation in as many decades cement themselves as the best team in the world?

Our picks for July 19, 2026

The Athletic Soccer Experts say: “Here it is. After 36 days, 103 games, almost 300 goals and a summer packed full of heartbreak and elation, we’re finally at the showpiece event: the World Cup final. This is the game where legends and legacies are made, and memories of ‘what if’ moments are created to plague fans’ minds for at least four years, and often much longer, to come.

“Argentina return to the final after a late comeback against England, though Tuchel’s tactical decisions were arguably as much to blame for his team’s downfall as Messi’s brilliance. Tuchel’s side sat back and tried to defend the lead, a strategy reinforced by the German’s tactical substitutions, giving Messi free rein in his favoured inside-right position. He was allowed to swing crosses in over and over, and to the surprise of perhaps every observer other than Tuchel and his coaching staff, he made them pay.

Lionel Messi celebrates Argentina's semi-final success

Is Lionel Messi going to claim a second successive World Cup? (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

“Spain will not allow the 39-year-old that same privilege. Luis de la Fuente’s side were outstanding against France, controlling the game and not allowing Mbappe or any of his world-class attacking team-mates a sniff of goal. Spain will take possession and look to follow a similar game plan against an ageing but spirited Argentina, the tournament’s top scorers.

“If Spain can play the game in Argentina’s half, Scaloni’s side may not have the pace to punish them on the break. But if Messi can arrest control of the match and play it on his terms, Spain (and any team in history) will be in trouble.

“But we expect this one to be a game too far for Argentina, despite Messi proving he is still one of the best — if not the best — players in the world.”

The Athletic Soccer Experts: SPAIN WIN

Guest Subscriber Zachary:  SPAIN WIN

Six-year-old Wilfred: SPAIN WIN

Stanley the dog: SPAIN WIN

Algo: SPAIN WIN

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How a lower-league team from an English fishing town launched the most desirable kits of the summer

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“Cantiamo solo quando peschiamo.”

That’s a direct translation of one of Grimsby Town’s most coveted chants: “We only sing when we’re fishing.”

Everything sounds better in Italian but, as this League Two side from Lincolnshire, halfway up the east coast of England near the River Humber, have discovered, everything looks better in Italian, too.

Grimsby is most famous for its fishing industry, processing around 70 per cent of the UK’s seafood; hence the tongue-in-cheek song sung by its football team’s supporters, a chant they made their own after a version was initially aimed at them by Liverpool fans during a match at Anfield in 1980.

Now, Grimsby Town are turning heads for their fashion sense, having trawled through their archives for inspiration and re-collaborated with an Italian sportswear company to produce some of the standout football jerseys for next season.

“We should be unapologetically Grimsby, because we can’t be anyone else,” Jack Johnson, the fourth-division side’s head of marketing, tells The Athletic. “We didn’t want to just go down the off-the-shelf strategy. We wanted something that was going to offer storytelling. That’s what makes us, and this kit, unique.”

It’s a modern take on an all-time classic.

When they play away this season, starting at Walsall on August 22, Grimsby will regularly step on to the pitch looking like Milan from the 1990s — but also themselves from that same period.

In 1996, Grimsby linked up with Italian sportswear company Lotto for two seasons; their away shirt for 1996-97 was a carbon copy of Milan’s light-blue fourth kit from the previous campaign, down to the slim red-and-black band across the chest with a white-and-blue diamond pattern beneath. If you removed the Milan badge and sponsor’s logo, and added Grimsby’s equivalents, you had the finished product.

Milan never actually wore that kit in Serie A, leaving Grimsby to give a soon-to-be-underused Lotto design a second premiere. And now football fans have fallen in love with a modern reimagining.

(Jon Corken/Grimsby Town Football Club)

“It felt really cool that we had exactly the same strip as the Milan,” remembers Steve Young of Grimsby Town podcast View From The Findus. And despite the club’s relegation from the First Division, then English football’s second tier, that season, “It became one of those shirts people always remembered.”

It was around this time that Grimsby forged a broader Italian affinity.

In 1995, they signed former Ivano Bonetti, a two-time Serie A winner with Juventus and Sampdoria, two years before the town produced more pizzas than anywhere in Europe, including its homeland of Italy.

These quirks, and more, are paid homage to in the new away shirt’s unveiling video released on July 13, which drew nearly 800,000 views on X within a week.

It was filmed in Naples, a city with fish markets of its own and a working-class atmosphere that perfectly illustrated the parallel with Grimsby.

First-team players Cameron McJannet and Geza David Turi were flown out to model the outfit on the streets of Naples, the latter unexpectedly so, just a day after representing the Faroe Islands in their June internationals against Estonia and Latvia. Turi’s modelling of the shirt’s long-sleeved edition have been received so well that the club are currently out of stock and won’t have more until September.

“When you set the long-sleeve shirts with the backdrop of Italy and you’ve got random Italians on mopeds wearing it, it just looks very cool, and is extremely well thought of,“ Young says.

Two people riding a moped in Naples with the driver wearing Grimsby Town's 2026-27 away shirt

(Jon Corken/Grimsby Town Football Club)

The partnership with Lotto stems from Grimsby’s primary deal with KitLocker, which adopted a licensing branch four years ago to design bespoke, heritage-led kits alongside suppliers and clubs.

This season is the third year of Grimsby’s KitLocker collaboration. Their partnership, in conjunction with Umbro for its first two years, broke records last season as their away shirt — again inspired by a design from the 1990s — became the best-selling in club history, with over 10,000 sold, a figure greater than their Blundell Park stadium’s capacity.

Lotto then began a partnership with KitLocker last season, manufacturing League One side AFC Wimbledon’s kits, and getting into business with Grimsby felt like a natural progression.

“When the Lotto link came about, remaking the ’96 kit immediately sprang to mind,” Johnson says. “We didn’t want to mess with a classic, because this kit was synonymous with the Milan side containing Patrick Vieira and Roberto Baggio, and brings back warm memories for fans of my age and older.”

Roberto Baggio and George Weah pictured in action for AC Milan in the 1995-96 season

Roberto Baggio, left, and George Weah in action in Milan’s 1995-96 fourth kit (Getty Images)

There is a lot going on visually, and a kit incorporating a collar, pinstripes, diamonds and five shades of blue sounds too busy to work, but it does — gloriously so.

“Grimsby is a club we knew would respect the heritage of Lotto,” says Mike Atkin, KitLocker’s director of licensed brands. “We knew the away kit would be a hit, but the work has gone in across the board to ensure that every shirt tells a story.”

The new home shirt — Grimsby have played in black and white stripes since 1925 — similarly pays tribute to its Lotto-made equivalent from 30 years ago with a retro Juventus-esque look, while their training and goalkeeper kits feature landmarks and mythology connected with the origins of the town.

Grimsby's Reece Staunton models the club's home kit for 2026-27

(Yuta Kato/Grimsby Town Football Club)

Johnson and KitLocker worked closely with JD Sports’ product director Luke Matthews, who aided the process on an advisory basis, and local photographer James Willis to bring the project to life. “Being a part of making these love letters of Grimsby that have transcended beyond the borders of Lincolnshire is awesome,” says Matthews.

It’s something Young, now living 60 miles away in Leeds, has also experienced: “I’ve had people who I play five-a-side with, many of whom only know Grimsby exists because of me, message me saying how amazing our kits look.

“Lotto feels like the quintessential Grimsby sponsor, and brings back memories of the season after we got relegated, where we visited Wembley twice (winning both the EFL Trophy and the Second Division play-off final) — the best times many of us have seen.”

On the face of it, Grimsby and Italian football should have little in common. Yet one borrowed template from the 1990s has become part of the club’s own identity, revived now not out of nostalgia alone but because it still tells the town’s story.

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Bears president Kevin Warren finally spoke, but he didn’t have much to say

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LAKE FOREST, Ill. In retrospect, I should’ve gone to the Cubs reunion at the Chicago Theatre on Thursday night.

“The Lovable Reunion” podcast live taping had a full house of hooting fans, several 2016 Cubs on stage, Pete Crow-Armstrong in the audience and an impromptu performance from Eddie Vedder.

But instead I drove up to Lake Forest and saw “Talking Football with Kevin Warren” at Gorton Center, a community arts venue five miles east of Halas Hall. Warren’s event had about 75 well-mannered people, including Republican gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey, who sat in the front row.

I have been to Gorton Center’s John & Nancy Hughes Theater several times over the years to see my daughter in various plays. Those performances drew much bigger crowds.

Then again, at least this talk didn’t get canceled. Many years ago, Warren’s predecessor as president of the Bears, Ted Phillips, was scheduled for a “Lunch with a Legend” interview series show with ESPN 1000, but it was called off because of low ticket sales.

Thursday night was a conversation with writer David Sweet, an affable man who wasn’t going to test Warren’s nerve by asking him hard-boiled questions about the seemingly never-ending pursuit of a new stadium for the Bears. I hoped for some spirited questions from frustrated Bears fans, but I left disappointed.

I skipped living in the Cubs’ past to see whether Warren had any clarity on the Bears’ future home in Arlington Heights, Ill., or Hammond, Ind. Warren hasn’t talked to reporters in a bit, and the Bears are waiting on Illinois politicians while seriously looking into moving the pride and joy of the state to Indiana.

Sweet did ask about the state of this debacle, but all Warren said was the Bears have spent the six weeks since their June 4 declaration focused on Hammond doing “due diligence” and environmental studies. He reiterated the team needs tax certainty, committed infrastructure money and “really good partners” for a new stadium project.

Sweet mentioned Arlington Heights in his question, but Warren, showing message discipline, did not.

“It’s been a challenge, but they’re all a challenge. U.S. Bank (Stadium in Minneapolis) was a challenge,” Warren said at one point. “It’s our job to continually stay positive.”

I thought there might be a live Q&A, but instead ticket purchasers could write out questions. Sweet read seven of them. None that were picked were direct questions about the stadium process, and two were nonsensical. (Of the latter, one read: “My wife is 5 feet, 110 pounds. Can she be a pass rusher?” Warren gamely attempted an answer.)

Two questions came from the caustic keyboard of Tim Boyd of Palatine, Ill., a Bears fan who attends a handful of home games and at least one road game per season. He showed me an email he sent with a list of stadium-related queries, many of which were admittedly rude, pointed or unlikely to be picked.

One of his questions that got asked was about Warren’s feelings on turf versus grass, considering he is dead set on building a stadium with a fixed roof. The other insinuated that Warren is not a real Bears fan, though Sweet didn’t read it that way. For the former, he said … basically nothing. They’d study the issue.

Boyd came to the event with his friend Jake Butman from Highland Park, Ill. They buy tickets every year through a season ticket holder and are disenchanted with Warren’s leadership on the stadium situation. So needless to say, they were not impressed with the event. Though, to be fair, it was planned by Gorton Center, not the Bears and Warren.

“I don’t even know why he did this, actually,” Butman said. “I would love to give him a truth serum and be like, ‘What was the purpose of this whole thing?’ Because it felt like such a softball, comfy, cozy situation.”

Because this was a conversation with a famous person type of event, a good chunk of time was spent talking about Warren’s background. For instance, he explained why he is obsessed with building things. (Warren has talked adoringly about seeing cranes in the sky.) He said it stemmed from his days growing up in Phoenix. First, he was a paperboy, and he liked looking at the different houses on his route. And during college, he worked summers in construction, where he learned about preparation, teamwork, etc.

Warren said U.S. Bank Stadium came in under budget and that he’s “neurotic about numbers.” Good news, I suppose, if the Bears ever start building a stadium.

One thing that bothered Boyd and Butman was Warren saying that his main focus is doing right by the fans. While they don’t think the Bears end up in Indiana, the two find the entire song-and-dance insulting.

“(The northern suburbs) to out west is all your season ticket holders,” Butman said. “If you care about them, why are you going to Indiana?”

While Boyd lives close to the Arlington Heights project, he said he’s not only grown tired of the rhetoric, but he also doesn’t trust the Bears to follow through on their promises to build a “world-class” stadium. Boyd, a bit of a pessimist, expects the worst if it gets done at all and said that at this point, he’d rather see the team fix Soldier Field.

Training camp starts in two weeks, when the focus will shift to Caleb Williams and Super Bowl dreams.

When asked about general manager Ryan Poles and coach Ben Johnson, Warren said he told them that they remind him of songwriters Hal David and Burt Bacharach. Warren said Poles and Johnson were understandably confused about the outdated reference.

“I told them to keep putting out the hits,” Warren said.

Those two almost found the way to Santa Clara, which is close to San Jose, so I get it. But what the Bears world needs now is more than love — they need results.

From Warren to Williams, the Bears have a lot of work to do to reach their lofty goals. The players and coaches need to build on last year’s success, and Warren needs to erase his years of failure. Easier said than done on both accounts.

At the end of the conversation, Sweet asked Warren what he is looking forward to this season.

“I’d say I’m most excited about starting 0-0 and figuring out how to win again,” Warren said.

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How to watch the men’s Nordea Open: Streaming options for the Semifinal

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There are two men’s matches at the Nordea Open on July 18, the best being No. 16-ranked Andrey Rublev against No. 31 Alejandro Tabilo.

Nordea Open key details

  • Tournament: The Nordea Open
  • Round: Semifinals
  • Date: July 18
  • Streaming: Fubo (Stream now)
  • Venue: Bastad Tennis Stadium
  • Location: Båstad, Sweden
  • Court Surface: Clay
  • Watching in person? Get tickets on StubHub.

Nordea Open schedule today

  • Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Luciano Darderi, 7 a.m. ET (Semifinal)
  • Andrey Rublev vs. Alejandro Tabilo, 8:30 a.m. ET (Semifinal)

Nordea Open odds

  • Andrey Rublev: +150
  • Luciano Darderi: +160
  • Adolfo Daniel Vallejo: +425
  • Alejandro Tabilo: +500

This watch guide was created using technology provided by Data Skrive.

Betting/odds, ticketing and streaming links in this article are provided by partners of The Athletic. Restrictions may apply. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

Photo: Clive Brunskill, Carl De Souza, Filipe Amorim, Valery Hache / Getty Images

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